China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

five points

Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 10:16:29 AM
failed strategy, what is yours still waiting days later... and how would it effect all those issues addiction, suicide, somestic violance. You are very accepting of expects opinions on these no so much on covid!!!

i hate to say this but just to use your logic, we live with suicide, we live with addictions and domestic violance.. what is your acceptable level for these?

do you understand that without action the numbers increase week on week and as the numbers increase there is increased risk for the most vulnerable cohort and also it would put untold pressure on the health system which will have knock on effects other health services leading to more issues again foe the vulnerable and sick.

There is no acceptable level of suicide, addiction or domestic violence but we don't shut down half the country on foot of these problems. We have no choice but to live with them.

Angelo

Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 10:48:55 AM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 10:42:08 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 10:31:17 AM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 10:03:22 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 09:47:14 AM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 09:15:32 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 12:19:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 20, 2020, 12:05:36 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on October 19, 2020, 11:56:44 PM
Quote from: ballinaman on October 19, 2020, 10:10:31 PM
So Micheál Martin confirmed its the suppress and release strategy until "a safe vaccine is found".

Ouch...that's a serous roll of the dice .
3 weeks in lockdown then 3 weeks off then back in for an arbitrary amount of time is the worst scenario for anyone trying to run a business in the hospitality sector as no one knows whether they are coming or going so no one can confidently book a table or a room anywhere 3 weeks in advance. The business may or may not still be opened and the people who own or work in the business may or may not be entitled to some payment but they have no customers either way. Even when businesses where opened for a few weeks the rules ensured they couldn't really make a go off it. Max of 6 people, pub closed by 10, no music, nobody too drunk, only talk to person in your group, now talk of outdoor only venues in the middle of winter mean there was no appeal in going out anyhow. The same for anyone thinking of going abroad or coming to Ireland. It doesnt matter which countries are on the green or amber list or whatever.  Most people wont go anywhere as they dont want the hassle of guessing what different rules will be in place a week from now.  There are whole sectors of the economy screwed and the on off restrictions and rules that go along with it are only making it worse.

Sin é. You can't have party pubs in the middle of pandemic, that is as good as it gets.
The trick is to ensure that the R after the current lockdown is 1.2 instead of 1.4 then the vaccine will be coming on stream before another lockdown is needed.

Patrick Vallance said today there wouldn't be a vaccine until at least the spring

There was a guy from whatever umbrella group represents the restaurants on the radio last week calling for the lockdown to be implemented now in the hope it would be lifted for the pre-Christmas period

Said 30% of his business for the year is in the weeks leading up to Christmas

Can see us going back to Level 5 in January

Ultimately this endless circle of trap and release is not sustainable but the will is not there to put in place a strategy to open up but keep the virus down

It's rather worrying

It's chaotic, we either learn to live with the virus or we lock ourselves away for an infinite amount of time until it's done which seems mad.

But this open/close/open/close strategy is completely for the birds.

There simply must not be another lockdown, the next time we come out there should be no way we go back in.
Live with the virus means you come up with a suppression strategy so you can open up safely

It does not mean open up and allow the virus to spread wildly

This is what Dr. Nabarro from the WHO was talking about

People seem to be conflating the first wave with the second wave.

Since August 63 people have died from Covid in the O6.

A little less than one per day, have we any barometer what level of death is acceptable. If we find out in January and February that we had an extra 70 incidents of suicides, if domestic violence cases were up 80%, if mental health problems increased, if addictions relapses increased 40% - at which point would we say that the implementation of lockdowns and restrictive measures are actually having a much more negative societal impact than they are having a positive one.

So unless Governments have some break even point identified, some form of acceptable Covid risk identified then we are in serious bother as a society.

We live with seasonal flu, it puts the health system under pressure every year, it kills people, causes long lasting health problems - but governments clearly feel all those risks are acceptable to a certain level so what I want to know is what is deemed acceptable with Covid? What are we aiming for? The messaging from government is the most worrying aspect out of all of this, it's close your eyes and hope for the best. Repeat failed strategies and hope for the best.
Covid is not seasonal flu

It does not peak in January and then go away

It keeps going relentlessly

But that is not to say that there may not be a seasonal element to it

You are making cast iron assumptions based on totally incomplete evidence

Actually, what you are assuming is that the virus has mutated into a significantly less severe form

There is no evidence for that

The apparently lower death rate currently is likely down to dynamics we do not fully understand

Maybe the old and vulnerable are protecting themselves much more effectively than in the spring and it's largely the less vulnerable who are currently getting it

Masks could be playing a role in how serious a viral load people are receiving

Maybe the way the virus is being treated in hospitals is slightly more effective than in spring

Yet in the US deaths are continuing to tick along at a pretty steady rate and have been doing so since the summer

The more the virus spreads, the harder it is to protect the old and vulnerable and then there's a very good chance the assumptions you are making about death rates will look very foolish

I'm not making any assumptions.

What am I saying is that people are becoming consumed by a virus which current data shows fatality rates at around 0.29% of positive cases - probably lower as testing is probably not catching close to the true amount of positive cases and currently has an ICU incidence rate of 0.11%. That is what the current data tells us. There are no assumptions there

And once again, complete and utter ignorance of the widespread and long term detrimental consequences to so many vulnerable factions of society that lockdowns and restrictions bring.

So I will ask you again, at what measure do we say there is an acceptable level of risk and death with Covid, like we do with seasonal flu every year? Not one person has addressed this yet, not one. I'll have all the blowhards here, sniping away like the cowards they are but when they are pushed for an answer on that, their yellow underbelly is there for all to see.

I've made the point that we live with flu, it causes death, it causes health problems, it puts strain on the health service - yet we accept all that with it. We accept the deaths, we accept the health problems, we accept the strain on the health service, we accept the level of risk. So at which point does Covid carry an acceptable level of risk? That one is for all the blowhards here, have any of the posters happy enough to take their snide shots a pair of balls big enough to answer that question? Anyone?

But you're refusing to elaborate on why you think death rates are currently lower than in spring

It seems clear that you really do believe the virus has mutated into a significantly less serious form

If you don't believe that, then there has been literally no point to your last 20 pages of posts

I don't know. I would say it was something to do with being taken on the hop by it, no preparation, lack of knowledge in treating patients, insufficient PPE in hospitals that might have spread it to vulnerable patients. It could be anything but the way the data is trending is encouraging in terms of the risk of the virus. For a fit and healthy person, the chances of dying from it seem very remote.

The only observation I have made is that the virus is significantly level fatal in the second wave than the first. That's what the data says. It could be for a number of different reasons but you haven't a clue why and neither do I.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

Angelo

Quote from: armaghniac on October 20, 2020, 11:03:40 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on October 20, 2020, 10:58:16 AM
Everyone is guessing at this stage still really, scarily.

Yes, we are all guessing to some extent, but the likes of Stephen Fauci has a team of 100 people with PhDs, his guesses are a hell of a lot more solidly based than randomers on the Internet.

And there are also 100s of people with PHDs who will take up the opposite side of the debate, so it's hardly a concrete point. These experts are at odds with each other.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: five points on October 20, 2020, 11:05:12 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 10:16:29 AM
failed strategy, what is yours still waiting days later... and how would it effect all those issues addiction, suicide, somestic violance. You are very accepting of expects opinions on these no so much on covid!!!

i hate to say this but just to use your logic, we live with suicide, we live with addictions and domestic violance.. what is your acceptable level for these?

do you understand that without action the numbers increase week on week and as the numbers increase there is increased risk for the most vulnerable cohort and also it would put untold pressure on the health system which will have knock on effects other health services leading to more issues again foe the vulnerable and sick.

There is no acceptable level of suicide, addiction or domestic violence but we don't shut down half the country on foot of these problems. We have no choice but to live with them.

To a degree, it won't affect people, so they turn a blind eye.

But if you look at it from a University Students point of view, Covid won't affect them....so they turn a blind eye.

Hard to get full compliance when this is a virus that discriminates so clearly to the 'weak'.

The replies to this will be selfish so and sos...I know, I agree. But it's not exactly going to do anything positive.


ballinaman

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 11:09:52 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 20, 2020, 11:03:40 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on October 20, 2020, 10:58:16 AM
Everyone is guessing at this stage still really, scarily.

Yes, we are all guessing to some extent, but the likes of Stephen Fauci has a team of 100 people with PhDs, his guesses are a hell of a lot more solidly based than randomers on the Internet.

And there are also 100s of people with PHDs who will take up the opposite side of the debate, so it's hardly a concrete point. These experts are at odds with each other.
Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias really coming to the fore during covid.

Seaney

Given the actual deaths attributed to Covid and a lot of those deaths are not from covid with the 28 day rule, also given the societal damage to the country, the mental health implications of losing jobs, being locked up with an abuser for example, being left isolated, drinking too much, eating too much, worrying too much, having nothing to look forward to - is it a case that the cure is seriously more dangerous and harmful than the cause. To quote Spock , "Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few." Captain Kirk answers, "Or the one." , here we have the needs of the few outweighing the needs of the many. Yes folk will die from this - some have, certainly not as many as reported, but when does it end, has there ever been a 100% successful vaccine against a virus, surely it is time to let people live, visit their parents in care homes, allow their kids to be educated, allow their kids to mix and engage in life - this lockdown is going to achieve absolutely nothing - not one thing but destroy thousands of more lives as a result, and yet no one is held to account - health officials are officially on the biggest power trip I have ever witnessed and the media narrative plays into their hands.

Angelo

Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 11:35:48 AM
Given the actual deaths attributed to Covid and a lot of those deaths are not from covid with the 28 day rule, also given the societal damage to the country, the mental health implications of losing jobs, being locked up with an abuser for example, being left isolated, drinking too much, eating too much, worrying too much, having nothing to look forward to - is it a case that the cure is seriously more dangerous and harmful than the cause. To quote Spock , "Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few." Captain Kirk answers, "Or the one." , here we have the needs of the few outweighing the needs of the many. Yes folk will die from this - some have, certainly not as many as reported, but when does it end, has there ever been a 100% successful vaccine against a virus, surely it is time to let people live, visit their parents in care homes, allow their kids to be educated, allow their kids to mix and engage in life - this lockdown is going to achieve absolutely nothing - not one thing but destroy thousands of more lives as a result, and yet no one is held to account - health officials are officially on the biggest power trip I have ever witnessed and the media narrative plays into their hands.

Careful now, that won't go down well with some of the ostriches here.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

PadraicHenryPearse

#8977
what happens when the numbers increase to a level that the health system cannot handle? we have seen this in other countries. what happens to other health services as the number increase? what happens the mental health of those who lose loved ones or worst are responsible for giving covid to a loved one who dies.. 

no one on here has denied there are negative aspect of lockdown. No one thinks it a great solution but better than the alterntive taking everything into consideration. i doubt anyone is happy about it but this seems beyond your understanding its easier to start name calling...

Angelo

Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 11:48:47 AM
what happens when the numbers increase to a level that the health system cannot handle? we have seen this in other countries. what happens to other health services as the number increase? what happens the mental health of those who lose loved ones or worst are responsible for giving covid to a loved one who dies.. 

no one on here has denied there are negative aspect of lockdown. No one thinks it a great solution but better than the alterntive taking everything into consideration. i doubt anyone is happy about it but this seems beyond your understanding its easier to start name calling...

I don't know.

It's all speculation, I don't see lockdown being a better alternative to living with the virus and that's from the data we are getting at present.

It's all ifs, buts and maybes but there are a certain cohort of posters on here who know as little as the next man who are displaying bizarre levels of arrogance with absolutely no knowledge on anything and they refuse to even look at the big picture and huge consequences lockdowns and excessive restrictions have on society.

I'd be very interested to see how Slovakia do with their mass testing, it's the most progressive approach I have seen any European country take yet.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

Jeepers Creepers

Dr Spock, i think I seen his name on the Barrington Declaration.

Rossfan

The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Angelo

Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 12:01:28 PM
The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

What about the awful scenes in hospitals in 26 every winter during flu season where 800 patients are lying about in hospital beds?
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

PadraicHenryPearse

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 11:54:37 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 11:48:47 AM
what happens when the numbers increase to a level that the health system cannot handle? we have seen this in other countries. what happens to other health services as the number increase? what happens the mental health of those who lose loved ones or worst are responsible for giving covid to a loved one who dies.. 

no one on here has denied there are negative aspect of lockdown. No one thinks it a great solution but better than the alterntive taking everything into consideration. i doubt anyone is happy about it but this seems beyond your understanding its easier to start name calling...

I don't know.

It's all speculation, I don't see lockdown being a better alternative to living with the virus and that's from the data we are getting at present.

It's all ifs, buts and maybes but there are a certain cohort of posters on here who know as little as the next man who are displaying bizarre levels of arrogance with absolutely no knowledge on anything and they refuse to even look at the big picture and huge consequences lockdowns and excessive restrictions have on society.

I'd be very interested to see how Slovakia do with their mass testing, it's the most progressive approach I have seen any European country take yet.

you seem very happy to speculate on the outcomes of lockdown?  why is it so hard to speculate on your approach!! which also has a certain level of restrictions.. the arrogence seems to come from you not others.

the data shows increaing numbers of cases... surely you must consider the outcome of that to use your own words people "refuse to even look at the big picture and huge consequences"

Seaney

#8983
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 11:48:47 AM
what happens when the numbers increase to a level that the health system cannot handle? we have seen this in other countries. what happens to other health services as the number increase? what happens the mental health of those who lose loved ones or worst are responsible for giving covid to a loved one who dies.. 

no one on here has denied there are negative aspect of lockdown. No one thinks it a great solution but better than the alterntive taking everything into consideration. i doubt anyone is happy about it but this seems beyond your understanding its easier to start name calling...

The health system in the north is not fit for purpose currently, try getting a doctors appointment, I remember their ads you don't need a pill for every ill, now ring up and they will just prescribe an antibiotic down the phone, they don't want to see anyone. My daughter was to get two teeth out under anesthetic the week of lockdown in March, it was cancelled we try and try to get her in she in awful pain, we are told that unless her face is swollen she won't be seen, she is 10. The overwhelming of the health system is a poor argument, it stopped operating in March, what about the missed cancer diagnosis, all the missed treatment over the last 7 months for different aliments, the nightingale hospitals remained empty we now live in a covid state with all health resources directed to covid, it is disproportionate to the problem, and most people are buying into the media narrative.  As pandemics go, the governments response is doing more damage than the virus.

Seaney

Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 12:01:28 PM
The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

It is a headline one would expect to see in the Sun, disproportionate and made with the only rational to get a reaction, it is quite pathetic that folk go down this route - there is no end game here - no vaccine will come to our aid, we have to learn to live with it, but you conclude that that means let it rip!