UK General Election 2017

[seafoid]

Talk of a poll tomorrow showing Con artists losing 20 seats and a hung parliament. This would be interesting, as most of the rest would leave the EU, but not go for some of the lunatic tough talk.

It's fascinating. _The Leave win was based on a wafer thin margin. Even though the Tories drank the Kool Aid most people are more interested in NHS, education, social care etc. And Labour are stronger on this.
If this poll is replicated on 8 June May will look like an idiot for calling this election. But she had to to hold off the Eurosceptics...
Maybe they should have a few duels with pistols.

Also look at how FPTP is so unfair to smaller parties. Lib Dems get twice as much support than SNP and one eighth of the seats. SNP operate in a concentrated space while the Lib Dems don't.

[seafoid]

The polls are all over the place because the people are. Except in Scotland . And NI where your vote is a function of your religion.

[seafoid]

Sterling falls as much as 0.7% on YouGov research pointing to possible hung parliament

https://www.ft.com/content/87563124-45cb-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

[ziggysego]

Apart from the fact that it shows NI only had 8 MPs at the time of dissolution, does this just confirm that the opinion polls are all over the place again??

Only 8 MPs? I'm sure I'm missing something obvious.... again. Where are the other 10?

[Hardy]

The poll showing a hung parliament is having little effect on the betting market. "No overall majority" has shortened but only from 7.5/1 to 6/1.

[seafoid]

The poll showing a hung parliament is having little effect on the betting market. "No overall majority" has shortened but only from 7.5/1 to 6/1.

That is a nice price

[Owen Brannigan]

When you see polls giving a percentage to each party and the gap opening or closing you need to understand that this is an overall picture but seats are decided on a constituency basis.  This means that while Labour are showing an increase in their percentage in the poll, this will most likely mean that the rise is in areas where labour will win the seat anyway. It will not necessarily mean that the surge will be enough to win seats in the marginal constituencies that are key to winning an election.

[Applesisapples]

So the stoops are castigating the shinners for being absentionist. Better for a nationalist to swear allegiance to the Queen. They are a bit like the DUP in supposing that SF voters actually give a toss about the British parliament.

[magpie seanie]

When you see polls giving a percentage to each party and the gap opening or closing you need to understand that this is an overall picture but seats are decided on a constituency basis.  This means that while Labour are showing an increase in their percentage in the poll, this will most likely mean that the rise is in areas where labour will win the seat anyway. It will not necessarily mean that the surge will be enough to win seats in the marginal constituencies that are key to winning an election.

I think you've given a definition of "biased" there buddy.

[screenexile]

So the stoops are castigating the shinners for being absentionist. Better for a nationalist to swear allegiance to the Queen. They are a bit like the DUP in supposing that SF voters actually give a toss about the British parliament.

Well then what's the point in them standing for the election anyway it's a wasted vote??!! Sinn Fein need to go to Westminster and represent the people who put them there not sit on their hands!

They've moved on in a lot of ways but in this they are stuck in the 60's!!

[Owen Brannigan]

When you see polls giving a percentage to each party and the gap opening or closing you need to understand that this is an overall picture but seats are decided on a constituency basis.  This means that while Labour are showing an increase in their percentage in the poll, this will most likely mean that the rise is in areas where labour will win the seat anyway. It will not necessarily mean that the surge will be enough to win seats in the marginal constituencies that are key to winning an election.

I think you've given a definition of "biased" there buddy.

Just because I have used Labour as an example?

The Conservatives have remained in a narrow band between 43 to 46% in the polls and according to the polls they have remained stable given the +/-3% allowed in accuracy.  This means that their core vote has not changed despite Labour's rise in the polls to narrow the gap.  Again, this is an overall percentage and can be swayed by swings within constituencies which will not mean that they will take established Labour seats or even marginals despite such a high percentage in the polls.

My point is that polls are based on nationwide samples but not on specific constituencies which would show the movement to unseating an incumbent MP.  However, the LUCID polling in N.Ireland does provide constituency by constituency polling and predictions which the UK polls do not.

https://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTMay17TrackerPollResultsPoll2-GeneralReport.pdf

[seafoid]

Heading for number 1

https://youtu.be/HxN1STgQXW8

[AhNowRef]

So the stoops are castigating the shinners for being absentionist. Better for a nationalist to swear allegiance to the Queen. They are a bit like the DUP in supposing that SF voters actually give a toss about the British parliament.

Well then what's the point in them standing for the election anyway it's a wasted vote??!! Sinn Fein need to go to Westminster and represent the people who put them there not sit on their hands!

They've moved on in a lot of ways but in this they are stuck in the 60's!!

What benefit would it be to SF or us in NI if they were to take their seats ... SNP have over 50 MPs and look how much notice is taken of them 

The yapping by all the other parties (and disgracefully the SDLP) that SF dont "stand up for us" in parliament is ludicrous !!

[omaghjoe]

When you see polls giving a percentage to each party and the gap opening or closing you need to understand that this is an overall picture but seats are decided on a constituency basis.  This means that while Labour are showing an increase in their percentage in the poll, this will most likely mean that the rise is in areas where labour will win the seat anyway. It will not necessarily mean that the surge will be enough to win seats in the marginal constituencies that are key to winning an election.

This is the key phrase. What Are you basing it on?

[seafoid]

So the stoops are castigating the shinners for being absentionist. Better for a nationalist to swear allegiance to the Queen. They are a bit like the DUP in supposing that SF voters actually give a toss about the British parliament.

Well then what's the point in them standing for the election anyway it's a wasted vote??!! Sinn Fein need to go to Westminster and represent the people who put them there not sit on their hands!

They've moved on in a lot of ways but in this they are stuck in the 60's!!

What benefit would it be to SF or us in NI if they were to take their seats ... SNP have over 50 MPs and look how much notice is taken of them 

The yapping by all the other parties (and disgracefully the SDLP) that SF dont "stand up for us" in parliament is ludicrous !!

They don't. SF could have voted against Article 50. They didn't