gaaboard.com

Non GAA Discussion => General discussion => Topic started by: Eamonnca1 on April 18, 2017, 07:09:42 PM

Title: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Eamonnca1 on April 18, 2017, 07:09:42 PM
Worth a thread of its own?

My prediction is a Liberal comeback because of Corbyn's uselessness and there being nobody else for the Remainers in England and Wales to vote for. Between the Liberals and the SNP, the opposition benches could get interesting.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: BarryBreensBandage on April 18, 2017, 07:17:07 PM
Another bloody election - TV saturated with nothing in particular, while the status quo of under funded, dysfunctional public services remains.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: An Watcher on April 18, 2017, 07:32:54 PM
Not that into my politics but am I right in saying that because the SNP are doing so well at the moment Labour have no chance of winning as Scotland was a Labour stronghold at one stage?  Basically it will decide how far the conservatives are ahead and the order of the smaller parties?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2017, 07:41:13 PM
Not that into my politics but am I right in saying that because the SNP are doing so well at the moment Labour have no chance of winning as Scotland was a Labour stronghold at one stage?  Basically it will decide how far the conservatives are ahead and the order of the smaller parties?
Best Labour can do is a coalition unless they win back those seats in Scotland.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: magpie seanie on April 18, 2017, 07:53:18 PM
Worth a thread of its own?

My prediction is a Liberal comeback because of Corbyn's uselessness and there being nobody else for the Remainers in England and Wales to vote for. Between the Liberals and the SNP, the opposition benches could get interesting.


Corbyn is a very good, principled man in a tremendously difficult situation. The world would be a better place if we had the Jeremy Corbyn's making the decisions rather than the Theresa May's. Throughout his political career he has been brave enough to take many unpopular/unfashionable stances and been proven right time and time again. The supporters of the butcher of Baghdad in his own party should get behind him rather that try to get rid of him. Most of them are practically tories anyway though.

I think and hope that May gets her ass kicked for this attempted power grab. I've a feeling it will not work out as well for her as it looks at the moment.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: imtommygunn on April 18, 2017, 07:53:53 PM
Not that into my politics but am I right in saying that because the SNP are doing so well at the moment Labour have no chance of winning as Scotland was a Labour stronghold at one stage?  Basically it will decide how far the conservatives are ahead and the order of the smaller parties?

Really i don't think anyone can beat the tories at present and may knows that. My interpretation of the election is that it is a put up or shut up to the opposition.

Snp have too many seats so will probably drop too which isn't good. Tories might make some, not much but some, ground in scotland. Not sure labour will.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2017, 07:59:14 PM
It is basically the Tories v everyone else. If the others decided to pick the best candidate for each seat Fermanagh South Tyrone style they could beat the Tories.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: T Fearon on April 18, 2017, 08:05:42 PM
I can only see a drastically increased Tory majority.Corbyn is the Michael Foot of the current generation,unrealistic policies of the loony left.SNP could take a bit of a hit,but not much.Lib Dems will regain a few seats but not many.Sadly due to two ineffective nationalist parties in the North,Fermanagh/South Tyrone and North Belfast (both nationalist majority constituencies) will be retained by Unionists.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 18, 2017, 08:32:11 PM
I can only see a drastically increased Tory majority.

Because England is either red or blue, like the US, there are plenty of Labour seats who even a big fall in the vote would not change the seat, there aren't that many marginals. So the majority will increase, but perhaps not as much as you think, given that the Tories will lose a few seats to Lib Dems.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38499645
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: screenexile on April 18, 2017, 08:44:35 PM
Whatever about Teresa May personally being a horrible human being she's smart and pragmatic. . . The numbers are telling her that a General Election right now will give Labour a defeat they can't recover from anytime soon and will give her the mandate to do what she wants.

Barring something sensational the Tories will have their biggest victory for a long time and the NHS/Welfare will be destroyed. Not looking forward to it.

If only Corbyn had an ounce of charisma but sadly he's got none and even though he has good ideas and is principled etc. etc. It matters little when he's not able to communicate his message to the electorate in a meaningful way!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Avondhu star on April 18, 2017, 08:48:47 PM
The opposition parties should realise who the enemy is. Splitting the anti Tory vote and letting theTories win constiteuncies with total votes less than the combined opposition vote is ridiculous. They are looking at 15 years of Tory government
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Avondhu star on April 18, 2017, 08:50:22 PM
Whatever about Teresa May personally being a horrible human being she's smart and pragmatic. . . The numbers are telling her that a General Election right now will give Labour a defeat they can't recover from anytime soon and will give her the mandate to do what she wants.

Barring something sensational the Tories will have their biggest victory for a long time and the NHS/Welfare will be destroyed. Not looking forward to it.

If only Corbyn had an ounce of charisma but sadly he's got none and even though he has good ideas and is principled etc. etc. It matters little when he's not able to communicate his message to the electorate in a meaningful way!
  Maybe Paul Murphy and his loons could go over and give him support
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Throw ball on April 18, 2017, 09:00:02 PM
Another situation were the Tory leader has put the interest of the party over what is best for the country. Just like Cameron with the Brevit vote.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 18, 2017, 10:12:40 PM
Whatever about Teresa May personally being a horrible human being she's smart and pragmatic. . . The numbers are telling her that a General Election right now will give Labour a defeat they can't recover from anytime soon and will give her the mandate to do what she wants.

Barring something sensational the Tories will have their biggest victory for a long time and the NHS/Welfare will be destroyed. Not looking forward to it.

If only Corbyn had an ounce of charisma but sadly he's got none and even though he has good ideas and is principled etc. etc. It matters little when he's not able to communicate his message to the electorate in a meaningful way!
  Maybe Paul Murphy and his loons could go over and give him support

This would be a good opportunity to then cut links with Britain.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 18, 2017, 10:14:14 PM
Political opportunism from May and it's a self serving decision despite consistently stating that there would be no election sprung.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: T Fearon on April 18, 2017, 10:30:54 PM
Corbyn' policies are as bird brained as Micheal Foot's back in the early 80s.He has yet to learn that commmunism/socialism is great as long as someone else pays the bills.

Election should render the DUP members at Westminster surplus to requirements at Westminster.SNP had their best ever election last time,just like SF they deliver little or nothing,and a lot of Scots are beginning to see through them.

Overall this could be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: ashman on April 18, 2017, 10:35:00 PM
Another situation were the Tory leader has put the interest of the party over what is best for the country. Just like Cameron with the Brevit vote.

Thes are  two democratic votes .  The people will speak in each .   
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: bennydorano on April 19, 2017, 12:27:00 AM
Check out MPs' majorities & other info. Brokenshire in a safe seat.

http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Throw ball on April 19, 2017, 01:27:12 AM
Another situation were the Tory leader has put the interest of the party over what is best for the country. Just like Cameron with the Brevit vote.

Thes are  two democratic votes .  The people will speak in each .

The problem is that democracy is a moment in time ideal. In nearly all occasions the electorate are not knowledgeable enough on the issues to make a reasoned assessment on which to vote. Cameron believed the UK was better in the EU but to keep the Conservative party together agreed on a referendum he assumed would back him. May is calling an election to keep the conservatives in power for longer so that if the Brexit talks take longer they are still in power and can call an election at the most opportune moment to win again. It is self serving. Politicians are supposed to serve their country not themselves. At the very least elections should be for fixed terms. I also wonder if a conservative government had have been in charge in the late 90s would the Good Friday agreement ever have come about.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 05:34:50 AM
Corbyn' policies are as bird brained as Micheal Foot's back in the early 80s.He has yet to learn that commmunism/socialism is great as long as someone else pays the bills.

Election should render the DUP members at Westminster surplus to requirements at Westminster.SNP had their best ever election last time,just like SF they deliver little or nothing,and a lot of Scots are beginning to see through them.

Overall this could be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories.
Socialism is great as long as someone pays the bills was Thatcher propaganda. 
Income inequality in the UK is back to 1920s levels. Real earnings (adjusted for inflation) are 15% lower than in 2007. At the lower end of the earnings scale, 800,000 people are on zero hours contracts. The UK government spends billions topping up low wages. Other taxpayers sponsor this.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Hardy on April 19, 2017, 09:21:25 AM
Betfair
Most seats
Tories 1/11
Lab. 14.5/1
Lib. 40/1
Tory majority 1/5
No majority 5.2/1
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: AQMP on April 19, 2017, 09:53:08 AM
This is a smart move by May (though some sources say it was the rest of the Cabinet who wanted an election).  The Tories are 20%+ ahead in the polls.  Even if they're out by 5% the lead is still 15%+.  The media will be happy to carry the message "Labour in disarray" and "Corbyn unelectable" for the Tories as they have been doing since he became leader.  The problem for Remainers is that the Remain vote is split over a number of parties, whereas the Tories will be going forward as the party of Brexit.

Expect the North not to feature, Laobour to do not as badly as expected (there are about 200 pretty "safe" Labour seats), Lib Dems are starting from a low base so will probably win a good few seats, SNP have nowhere to go but down, and why anyone would vote for UKIP now is beyond me.  Tory majority of 75 - 100, then May will go forward with a mandate for what will turn out to be a soft Brexit.  Remember where you heard it first!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Tony Baloney on April 19, 2017, 10:15:09 AM
Corbyn' policies are as bird brained as Micheal Foot's back in the early 80s.He has yet to learn that commmunism/socialism is great as long as someone else pays the bills.

Election should render the DUP members at Westminster surplus to requirements at Westminster.SNP had their best ever election last time,just like SF they deliver little or nothing,and a lot of Scots are beginning to see through them.

Overall this could be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories.
Socialism is great as long as someone pays the bills was Thatcher propaganda. 
Income inequality in the UK is back to 1920s levels. Real earnings (adjusted for inflation) are 15% lower than in 2007. At the lower end of the earnings scale, 800,000 people are on zero hours contracts. The UK government spends billions topping up low wages. Other taxpayers sponsor this.
The problem Labour have now, and was the case at the last 2 elections, is that tax-paying Joe Public simply don't trust them on the economy, due to a perceived "loony left" agenda which would work out well for the "scroungers" at the expense of the hard-working taxpayer. New Labour was successful in getting over the line because they were Tory-lite in that regard and were trusted. Corbyn in place will not change the status quo for at least another 2 elections.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 19, 2017, 10:55:54 AM
Hard to know. We live in strange times - Trump, Brexit referendum.  Corbyn's underdog appeal could work for him in the same way it worked for Major against Kinnock in 1992.  Corbyn might also appeal to young voters wishing to protest. It's a long shot I know but here's hoping
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: maddog on April 19, 2017, 11:15:19 AM
I'm convinced that if May told the electorate that if by voting Tory they would all be homeless by Christmas they would still vote them in.

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 19, 2017, 12:03:12 PM
Theresa May refusing to take part in leaders debates is a strange position to take so early in the campaign. It gives her political opponents a stick to beat her with and looks like a very cowardly position to take for an as yet unelected prime minister.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 12:10:06 PM
Corbyn' policies are as bird brained as Micheal Foot's back in the early 80s.He has yet to learn that commmunism/socialism is great as long as someone else pays the bills.

Election should render the DUP members at Westminster surplus to requirements at Westminster.SNP had their best ever election last time,just like SF they deliver little or nothing,and a lot of Scots are beginning to see through them.

Overall this could be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories.
Socialism is great as long as someone pays the bills was Thatcher propaganda. 
Income inequality in the UK is back to 1920s levels. Real earnings (adjusted for inflation) are 15% lower than in 2007. At the lower end of the earnings scale, 800,000 people are on zero hours contracts. The UK government spends billions topping up low wages. Other taxpayers sponsor this.
The problem Labour have now, and was the case at the last 2 elections, is that tax-paying Joe Public simply don't trust them on the economy, due to a perceived "loony left" agenda which would work out well for the "scroungers" at the expense of the hard-working taxpayer. New Labour was successful in getting over the line because they were Tory-lite in that regard and were trusted. Corbyn in place will not change the status quo for at least another 2 elections.
Looney Tory austerity has blown the deficit to 6% of GDP. The economic model is banjaxed
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: AQMP on April 19, 2017, 12:12:56 PM
Theresa May refusing to take part in leaders debates is a strange position to take so early in the campaign. It gives her political opponents a stick to beat her with and looks like a very cowardly position to take for an as yet unelected prime minister.

In court when the prosecution has a weak case often the defendant does not testify as there is nothing to defend.  A TV debate is unlikely to win the Tories many more votes and the possibility is there that she would perform badly (thinking on her feet is not one of May's strengths) or make some gaffe that would cost them votes.  From their point of view, best leave well alone.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 12:18:00 PM
No majority @5.2/1 looks nice.
The UK is going through a period of political chaos

Ignoring NI there will have been 4 big votes in 4 years. 2xGE, Brexit and Scottish independence.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: LeoMc on April 19, 2017, 01:08:44 PM
This is a smart move by May (though some sources say it was the rest of the Cabinet who wanted an election).  The Tories are 20%+ ahead in the polls.  Even if they're out by 5% the lead is still 15%+.  The media will be happy to carry the message "Labour in disarray" and "Corbyn unelectable" for the Tories as they have been doing since he became leader.  The problem for Remainers is that the Remain vote is split over a number of parties, whereas the Tories will be going forward as the party of Brexit.

Expect the North not to feature, Laobour to do not as badly as expected (there are about 200 pretty "safe" Labour seats), Lib Dems are starting from a low base so will probably win a good few seats, SNP have nowhere to go but down, and why anyone would vote for UKIP now is beyond me.  Tory majority of 75 - 100, then May will go forward with a mandate for what will turn out to be a soft Brexit.  Remember where you heard it first!
Exactly, it is as much about not being dependent upon the Looney Right (inc DUP) whilst Brexit negotiations are ongoing.
LCA's were put on an election footing a couple of months ago.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Orior on April 19, 2017, 01:58:28 PM
Betfair
Most seats
Tories 1/11
Lab. 14.5/1
Lib. 40/1
Tory majority 1/5
No majority 5.2/1

Please desist from making the election a little interesting, lol.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 19, 2017, 02:01:45 PM
Theresa May refusing to take part in leaders debates is a strange position to take so early in the campaign. It gives her political opponents a stick to beat her with and looks like a very cowardly position to take for an as yet unelected prime minister.

In court when the prosecution has a weak case often the defendant does not testify as there is nothing to defend.  A TV debate is unlikely to win the Tories many more votes and the possibility is there that she would perform badly (thinking on her feet is not one of May's strengths) or make some gaffe that would cost them votes.  From their point of view, best leave well alone.

There is plenty to defend alright (just the small matter of her Brexit position).

She is simply afraid to do it because she knows that she is still unable to outline the mechanics of a post Brexit Britain, the cost of leaving the EU, the difficulty in reaching trade agreements, the threat to the union. In essence they are still making it up as they go along. Unfortunately due to Corbyn's position on Brexit, the labour party will not benefit in any shape or form by a leaders debate. The Lib Dem's would be the biggest benificiary from focussing on Brexit and pinning her down to the issues. The election has been called on the basis of a Brexit negotiating stance but at the same time she wants to avoid talking about it.

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: macdanger2 on April 19, 2017, 02:35:19 PM
Hard to know. We live in strange times - Trump, Brexit referendum.  Corbyn's underdog appeal could work for him in the same way it worked for Major against Kinnock in 1992.  Corbyn might also appeal to young voters wishing to protest. It's a long shot I know but here's hoping

It will be interesting to see if there's a surge in young voters and if so, where will they go
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: dec on April 19, 2017, 02:38:16 PM
Theresa May refusing to take part in leaders debates is a strange position to take so early in the campaign. It gives her political opponents a stick to beat her with and looks like a very cowardly position to take for an as yet unelected prime minister.

In court when the prosecution has a weak case often the defendant does not testify as there is nothing to defend.  A TV debate is unlikely to win the Tories many more votes and the possibility is there that she would perform badly (thinking on her feet is not one of May's strengths) or make some gaffe that would cost them votes.  From their point of view, best leave well alone.

There is plenty to defend alright (just the small matter of her Brexit position).

She is simply afraid to do it because she knows that she is still unable to outline the mechanics of a post Brexit Britain, the cost of leaving the EU, the difficulty in reaching trade agreements, the threat to the union. In essence they are still making it up as they go along. Unfortunately due to Corbyn's position on Brexit, the labour party will not benefit in any shape or form by a leaders debate. The Lib Dem's would be the biggest benificiary from focussing on Brexit and pinning her down to the issues. The election has been called on the basis of a Brexit negotiating stance but at the same time she wants to avoid talking about it.

The Tories have a large lead in the opinion polls, they are unlikely to gain any more voters because of a Theresa May debate performance. She has not much to gain and plenty to lose in a debate so tactically it is a smart move.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 02:40:49 PM
Both Trump and the Leave campaign turned popular anger towards economic inequality into political success. The Tories are doubling down on poll support to win a GE. Neither Make America great again nor Brexit will address the structural issues that caused people to vote for them. The people in both cases will be betrayed. I hope the Tories win this election. They deserve the consequences. 
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 19, 2017, 02:46:12 PM
Theresa May refusing to take part in leaders debates is a strange position to take so early in the campaign. It gives her political opponents a stick to beat her with and looks like a very cowardly position to take for an as yet unelected prime minister.

In court when the prosecution has a weak case often the defendant does not testify as there is nothing to defend.  A TV debate is unlikely to win the Tories many more votes and the possibility is there that she would perform badly (thinking on her feet is not one of May's strengths) or make some gaffe that would cost them votes.  From their point of view, best leave well alone.

There is plenty to defend alright (just the small matter of her Brexit position).

She is simply afraid to do it because she knows that she is still unable to outline the mechanics of a post Brexit Britain, the cost of leaving the EU, the difficulty in reaching trade agreements, the threat to the union. In essence they are still making it up as they go along. Unfortunately due to Corbyn's position on Brexit, the labour party will not benefit in any shape or form by a leaders debate. The Lib Dem's would be the biggest benificiary from focussing on Brexit and pinning her down to the issues. The election has been called on the basis of a Brexit negotiating stance but at the same time she wants to avoid talking about it.

The Tories have a large lead in the opinion polls, they are unlikely to gain any more voters because of a Theresa May debate performance. She has not much to gain and plenty to lose in a debate so tactically it is a smart move.

Wouldn't agree with that. The aesthetics of an empty chair in any debate (one of which has only recently been announced by ITV) would not look good for any prospective prime minister. She might want to avoid debating the issues but trying to become invisible just exacerbates the problem in my view. 
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: dec on April 19, 2017, 02:51:06 PM
The aesthetics of an empty chair in any debate (one of which has only recently been announced by ITV) would not look good for any prospective prime minister. She might want to avoid debating the issues but trying to become invisible just exacerbates the problem in my view. 

That is assuming that the broadcasters would actually stick an empty chair on the stage.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: screenexile on April 19, 2017, 02:52:12 PM
The aesthetics of an empty chair in any debate (one of which has only recently been announced by ITV) would not look good for any prospective prime minister. She might want to avoid debating the issues but trying to become invisible just exacerbates the problem in my view. 

That is assuming that the broadcasters would actually stick an empty chair on the stage.

Channel 4 would do it!!! I doubt any of the other would.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 19, 2017, 02:56:19 PM
The aesthetics of an empty chair in any debate (one of which has only recently been announced by ITV) would not look good for any prospective prime minister. She might want to avoid debating the issues but trying to become invisible just exacerbates the problem in my view. 

That is assuming that the broadcasters would actually stick an empty chair on the stage.

Even if they don't, her absence in any debate could be counter productive. I think she could yet be forced into another U-turn on this issue as it simply gives her political opponents a stick with which to beat her.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 19, 2017, 03:06:58 PM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Carmen Stateside on April 19, 2017, 03:23:36 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: AQMP on April 19, 2017, 03:26:29 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.

Didn't Blair turn them down in 2005??
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: screenexile on April 19, 2017, 03:29:10 PM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.

Why wouldn't she then?!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 19, 2017, 03:35:04 PM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.

Why wouldn't she then?!

Because she might have a harder time of it from someone competent like Sturgeon.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: bennydorano on April 19, 2017, 05:48:43 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.

Didn't Blair turn them down in 2005??
Are they not a more recent phenomenon, first one I recall was the GE that ended up with the Coalition government. Cameron wanted to increase his profile, Gordon Brown was resistant but did it as the Tory media got going at him.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 07:38:32 PM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.

Why wouldn't she then?!

Such debates always favour the minor players and not incumbents and allow the others to gang up on the incumbent to show their own views.

May has nothing to gain from a tv debate and plenty to lose.  She is not a natural performer and not as vain as Blair and Cameron who were style without substance and natural performers.  She knows she would leave some hostages to fortune.  AT PMQs she shows that she has some grasp of the facts but just repeats prepared lines.

On top of all of that she doesn't need to do the tv debate while the others do need it for exposure.

In addition she does not want to give Corbyn a sympathy vote as she treats him in a derisory fashion.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 07:40:06 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.

Didn't Blair turn them down in 2005??
Are they not a more recent phenomenon, first one I recall was the GE that ended up with the Coalition government. Cameron wanted to increase his profile, Gordon Brown was resistant but did it as the Tory media got going at him.

An American phenomena going back to the Nixon debate.  Seen as essential for US audiences.  Never change any minds.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 08:18:14 PM
Ken Clarke called Brexit Alice in Wonderland and that is what the Tories look like. More than half the MPs  voted Remain yet they all rowed behind May who is terrified of the Daily Mail. And she talks about leadership.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Orior on April 19, 2017, 08:22:44 PM
From the Tony Fearon construct-your-own-joke book:

Don't March May into an April debate.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 08:45:51 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/gina-miller-best-for-britain-tactical-voting-against-hard-brexit
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Eamonnca1 on April 19, 2017, 08:57:31 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.

Didn't Blair turn them down in 2005??
Are they not a more recent phenomenon, first one I recall was the GE that ended up with the Coalition government. Cameron wanted to increase his profile, Gordon Brown was resistant but did it as the Tory media got going at him.

An American phenomena going back to the Nixon debate.  Seen as essential for US audiences.  Never change any minds.

Are you serious? It sunk Nixon when he ran against Kennedy. Dukakis crashed and burned on a capital punishment question. Rick Perry's little "oops" moment knocked him out of the Repukelican primaries. Obama kept his cool against Senator "mood swing" McCain and wiped the floor with Mitt Romney. Nick Clegg came from nowhere in his first TV debate and stoked a Lib-Dem comeback that led to a coalition government.

TV debates are huge.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 09:10:06 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 09:14:22 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 19, 2017, 09:33:36 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2017, 09:39:53 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Payrises are not happening.  Unemployment is low but a lot of jobs are crap. The Tories underestimate the patience of the voters at their peril.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 09:50:12 PM
According to the Telegraph.......

'Theresa May is likely to take part in a question and answer session in front a television audience before the general election after she was heavily criticised by her opponents for refusing to debate with them.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/bbc-itv-collision-course-theresa-may-say-will-hold-televised/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/bbc-itv-collision-course-theresa-may-say-will-hold-televised/)
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 19, 2017, 09:51:04 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Payrises are not happening.  Unemployment is low but a lot of jobs are crap. The Tories underestimate the patience of the voters at their peril.

Not everyone can be a doctor
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 10:00:05 PM
It is not the conditions that are most important but the fear of the alternative.

For example Tories will point out that the conditions are due to Labour mismanagement of the economy and leaving the deficit.  labour has a leader who is incompetent, no experience of government and will further bankrupt the country.

Brexit is accepted by the English and they want a good deal, who will deliver it.

Media will rip Corbyn apart and McDonnell with him.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Eamonnca1 on April 19, 2017, 10:10:37 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
We're gonna have to agree to disagree here.

Quote
Cleggmania spreads across Britain (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cleggmania-spreads-across-britain-1947687.html)
One sure-footed TV performance, and the Lib Dem leader has transformed the election campaign. Jane Merrick and Brian Brady tell the inside story of how he did it, and ask the key question: could it actually last?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: bennydorano on April 19, 2017, 10:25:35 PM
ITV the first to confirm televised debate.  Puts May in a difficult position now.

Didn't Blair turn them down in 2005??
Are they not a more recent phenomenon, first one I recall was the GE that ended up with the Coalition government. Cameron wanted to increase his profile, Gordon Brown was resistant but did it as the Tory media got going at him.

An American phenomena going back to the Nixon debate.  Seen as essential for US audiences.  Never change any minds.
I was referring to the UK.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owenmoresider on April 19, 2017, 10:33:28 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
We're gonna have to agree to disagree here.

Quote
Cleggmania spreads across Britain (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cleggmania-spreads-across-britain-1947687.html)
One sure-footed TV performance, and the Lib Dem leader has transformed the election campaign. Jane Merrick and Brian Brady tell the inside story of how he did it, and ask the key question: could it actually last?
The net five seats that the Liberals lost in that election certainly suggests it didn't.

Think the importance of debates is rather overblown, a 2/3 way head-to-head maybe but the cluttered versions here last year and in Britain in 2015 don't tend to shed much light. And elections are rarely won in debates, but they can be lost. The 2011 Presidential election being a case in point. Conversely Noonan was regarded as having got the better of Bertie in 2002 but fat lot of good it did FG on election day.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 19, 2017, 11:19:00 PM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Payrises are not happening.  Unemployment is low but a lot of jobs are crap. The Tories underestimate the patience of the voters at their peril.

Not everyone can be a doctor

Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 20, 2017, 12:02:30 AM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 12:12:48 AM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 20, 2017, 12:36:58 AM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Throw ball on April 20, 2017, 12:48:32 AM
It is not the conditions that are most important but the fear of the alternative.

For example Tories will point out that the conditions are due to Labour mismanagement of the economy and leaving the deficit.  labour has a leader who is incompetent, no experience of government and will further bankrupt the country.

Brexit is accepted by the English and they want a good deal, who will deliver it.

Media will rip Corbyn apart and McDonnell with him.

Although I agree with you on how things are portrayed I had an article passed on to me prior to the last general election. It seems that the amount borrowed by the UK during austerity in the Cameron conservative government was the same as the total borrowed during the Blair and Brown governments. Talk of cutting the deficit is in general crap. All that is happening is that the amount being borrowed is increasing year on year at a decreasing rate. If we ran our own budgets like that we would soon be bankrupt!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 02:47:30 AM
According to the Telegraph.......

'Theresa May is likely to take part in a question and answer session in front a television audience before the general election after she was heavily criticised by her opponents for refusing to debate with them.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/bbc-itv-collision-course-theresa-may-say-will-hold-televised/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/bbc-itv-collision-course-theresa-may-say-will-hold-televised/)
Lynton Crosby is micro managing this. He can't afford to have the Brexit narrative destroyed by the Lib Dems.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:44:15 AM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 08:04:23 AM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending
If earnings minus inflation are 15% lower than in  2008 there aren't enough payrises to support spending growth. Debt fills the gap.
Thatcher designed the system to favour the rich. Now it has reached perfection.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 20, 2017, 08:43:13 AM
Debt is keeping spending going, but how well is that going to work out?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 09:24:46 AM
Debt is keeping spending going, but how well is that going to work out?
Debt either has to be paid off or rolled over.
Without those payrises I wouldn't be very optimistic

I was looking at Debenhams shares. They are down 50% over the last while. Debenhams shoppers are not doing very well.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 09:55:17 AM
Debt is keeping spending going, but how well is that going to work out?
Debt either has to be paid off or rolled over.
Without those payrises I wouldn't be very optimistic

I was looking at Debenhams shares. They are down 50% over the last while. Debenhams shoppers are not doing very well.

Tesco is recovering, has returned profits since that big loss in 2015
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Franko on April 20, 2017, 09:56:23 AM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Payrises are not happening.  Unemployment is low but a lot of jobs are crap. The Tories underestimate the patience of the voters at their peril.

Not everyone can be a doctor

Straight out of the tory phrasebook.  No, but everyone can be a reasonably paid administrator/labourer/binman/home help.  The profits at the minute are being sent to the C-suite and shareholders and not distributed to the normal man (woman).
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Franko on April 20, 2017, 09:58:09 AM
Not definitive that Clegg's tv appearance helped his vote or the country had been fed that all problems were down to Labour and the country being bankrupt regardless of the bankers.  Voters moved to LD as next best to Labour but not moved to conservatives.  GB voters much different from those in US where it is a huge country and electorate impossible to reach by means other than TV.

Most voters tend to have fixed their views in the context of the state of the country or their views on the leaders.  By now most have been convinced by the media that Corbyn is a blunderer and May is a strong leader.  TV debate can only harm May and boost the others so she knows to stay away.

In NI, no evidence that the tv debates affected voting patterns but the audience figures did reflect interest and high turnout.
UK voters are pissed off. Real incomes are minus 15% vs 2008. So politics are volatile. May has not achieved anything
 Her image is more spin than substance. Maybe people will buy it.

We will soon see Seafoid, is unemployment not at lowest level since mid 70s?
Payrises are not happening.  Unemployment is low but a lot of jobs are crap. The Tories underestimate the patience of the voters at their peril.

Not everyone can be a doctor

Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Grow up.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 11:10:00 AM
Debt is keeping spending going, but how well is that going to work out?
Debt either has to be paid off or rolled over.
Without those payrises I wouldn't be very optimistic

I was looking at Debenhams shares. They are down 50% over the last while. Debenhams shoppers are not doing very well.

Tesco is recovering, has returned profits since that big loss in 2015
Do it over 3 years. It doesn't look great
http://m.lse.co.uk/markets/shareprice/charts.asp?share=TSCO

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 01:30:42 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/20/general-election-2017-corbyn-speech-greens-launch-politics-live

Corbyn says Labour has set out its Brexit policy. It wants

tariff-free access to the single market.

Walking away, and trading under WTO rules, would mean manufacturing in this country would be severely damaged.

Threatening to turn the UK into a tax haven “is not a sensible way of negotiating”, he says.

He says he has held talks with fellow European socialist parties.

He accepts the result of the referendum. But we still have to work with Europe, he says.

Corbyn refuses to rule out a second referendum on Brexit.
Q: [From the BBC’s Martha Kearney] You have outlined a number of policies recently. Do you worry that your policies are popular, but that Labour has become a tainted brand?

He says people in the audience are wearing Keir Hardie badges. He was vilified when he was first elected. Anyone who stands up to create a decent party gets vilified. But he will continue to stand up for decency and ordinary people.

This gets a huge round of applause. It is a very effective soundbite.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: north_antrim_hound on April 20, 2017, 02:05:34 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending

Pay rises might be happening in the civil service but not much in the private sector
I haven't spoke to anyone who is self employed or runs a small business that is better off compared to 11 years ago
Farming is NI biggest industry and they are feeling the pinch and for once I beleave them
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 02:21:36 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?
At the level.of the UK economy they basically are not. The economy isn't working for people if the overall level of payrises is lower than inflation. Big deal if 2 or 3 examples got something. Companies are holding back on payrises to pay bonuses and dividends.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 02:23:01 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending

Pay rises might be happening in the civil service but not much in the private sector
I haven't spoke to anyone who is self employed or runs a small business that is better off compared to 11 years ago
Farming is NI biggest industry and they are feeling the pinch and for once I beleave them

Labour costs go up when material costs go up, once fuel goes up also, then labour costs will go up, I'm getting work done at the house and its not cheap, and that me shopping around...

nah, they may not be better off but not worse off, we are still feeling the effects of 2008, not brexit, yet...Building work has increased and now we have a shortage of decent tradesmen out there to do the work due to a shift in training needs because of 2008 when the building trades took a huge hit...

Waiting on workmen to come and do work is longer than normal, again thats down to not enough apprentices in those trades over the last 9 years..

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 02:24:48 PM
Debt is keeping spending going, but how well is that going to work out?
Debt either has to be paid off or rolled over.
Without those payrises I wouldn't be very optimistic

I was looking at Debenhams shares. They are down 50% over the last while. Debenhams shoppers are not doing very well.

Tesco is recovering, has returned profits since that big loss in 2015
Do it over 3 years. It doesn't look great
http://m.lse.co.uk/markets/shareprice/charts.asp?share=TSCO

I said its improved since 2015, but I'd say over the past 10/15 years Tesco have done alright
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 02:34:09 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?
At the level.of the UK economy they basically are not. The economy isn't working for people if the overall level of payrises is lower than inflation. Big deal if 2 or 3 examples got something. Companies are holding back on payrises to pay bonuses and dividends.

The economy hasnt been great since 2008, still in a recession of sorts
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 20, 2017, 02:48:37 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?
At the level.of the UK economy they basically are not. The economy isn't working for people if the overall level of payrises is lower than inflation. Big deal if 2 or 3 examples got something. Companies are holding back on payrises to pay bonuses and dividends.

The economy hasnt been great since 2008, still in a recession of sorts
For most people.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Eamonnca1 on April 20, 2017, 06:13:06 PM
still in a recession of sorts

Huh?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 20, 2017, 06:39:20 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending
More uninformed nonsense. Ant public servant on the top of their pay scale will have seen their take home pay fall each year for the last 3 or 4 years.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:04:10 PM
Seafoid knows nobody who's got a pay rise in the north !! It's all collapsing around us

Where did he say that?

He said pay rises are not happening ? Cheerleader much?

That might have been a simplification. I imagine he was referring to his previous point that pay rises, in general, were not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, some people have done fine either because of their job or because they had an element of promotion along the way.

I think you imagined wrong, like Seafoid did, pay rises have increased for some stayed the same for others, been like that long before brexit, 2008 was the crash....people adapt their spending based on their earnings, and it seems people are spending
More uninformed nonsense. Ant public servant on the top of their pay scale will have seen their take home pay fall each year for the last 3 or 4 years.

Wife works public sector, wages haven't dropped
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: imtommygunn on April 20, 2017, 07:05:51 PM
Vs inflation?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:06:20 PM
Vs inflation?

That wasn't the question
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 20, 2017, 07:06:59 PM
Read what I wrote! I said any public servant on the top of their pay scale has seen their take home pay reduced
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:08:30 PM
Read what I wrote! I said any public servant on the top of their pay scale has seen their take home pay reduced

She's on the top of her pay scale and it's not drop, now read that back to yourself
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 20, 2017, 07:10:08 PM
My wife's a teacher and I'm a civil public servant. We take home less money in our pay cheques now than we did 3 years ago. Fact
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:14:40 PM
My wife's a teacher and I'm a civil public servant. We take home less money in our pay cheques now than we did 3 years ago. Fact

My wife's a teacher top of her pay scale and took on an extra point earning more now and I changed jobs from teaching, and earning over double on my previous job which paid same as wife! Private sector would be the way to go to realistically earn a better wage...

Could all fall down round me and might have to go back to teaching..
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 20, 2017, 07:17:36 PM
You're not comparing like with like. Had your wife not got the extra point she'd have seen her pay go down. As regards you working in the private sector, everyone knows there's a shortage of workers in your discipline so naturally the money's going to be better. Supply and demand
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:19:02 PM
You're not comparing like with like. Had your wife not got the extra point she'd have seen her pay go down.

Nope just asked her again and it's not went down, no pay rise but the wages haven't dropped!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Tony Baloney on April 20, 2017, 07:29:30 PM
You're not comparing like with like. Had your wife not got the extra point she'd have seen her pay go down.

Nope just asked her again and it's not went down, no pay rise but the wages haven't dropped!
Inflation.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: imtommygunn on April 20, 2017, 07:32:07 PM
You're not comparing like with like. Had your wife not got the extra point she'd have seen her pay go down.

Nope just asked her again and it's not went down, no pay rise but the wages haven't dropped!

It is an effective pay decrease.

You completely changing career path for a higher paying one may mask that for you but it is an effective pay decrease and a lot of households would struggle on the back of it.

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2017, 07:47:15 PM
I didn't bring inflation into it as that wasn't asked, so the pay drop didn't happen but clearly with inflation yes then that would be the case...

Either way we have tighten, like most household the purse strings based on earnings, public sector jobs have far greater benefits than private.. great pensions and holidays sick schemes to help with hangovers  ;)

Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: imtommygunn on April 20, 2017, 09:36:52 PM
Not really with the absence of final salary pensions though. Health care, dental care, bonus schemes, life insurance, insurance on prolonged sick absences etc. You can easily outweigh the public sector benefits in the right private job. Key difference security in my view which isn't what it was.

A lot of private places have the "sick" issue too...
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 20, 2017, 11:57:42 PM
I didn't bring inflation into it as that wasn't asked, so the pay drop didn't happen but clearly with inflation yes then that would be the case...

Either way we have tighten, like most household the purse strings based on earnings, public sector jobs have far greater benefits than private.. great pensions and holidays sick schemes to help with hangovers  ;)

Any teacher who has not been in receipt of a pay increase via incremental progression or via an additional teaching allowance for other responsibilities has experienced the following decrease in pay and all teachers are affected by pension changes:

1. A pay freeze during 3/5 out of the last 5 years and then only a 1% pay increase against official inflation at a higher rate so a considerable effective pay decrease in real terms.

2. An increase in National Insurance payments since April 2016 as a 'contracted in' charge replaced the old 'contracted out' rate to take account of the serious decrease in future pension payments.

3. An increase in the percentage of pay taken for pension contributions which increases as your salary increases.  % of pay taken for pension payments has increased from 6% to almost 7% for lower earners up to nearly 12% of gross salary payment for the highest paid teachers.

4. An increase in the National Pension Age to 67 from 60 for the vast majority of teachers which means that they cannot access their pensions without an actuarial reduction of 5% per year for every year it is taken below 67.

5. A removal from the final salary pension scheme and transfer to the average salary scheme which greatly reduces the pension available even when supplemented by the state pension as available by contracted in National Insurance payments. affects all teacher who were younger than 50 on 1st April 2012.

6. No tax free lump sum along with the pension at retirement unless you commute a significant part of the annual pension.

So, every teacher has had a significant actual pay reduction, a significant real pay reduction and a major erosion of their expected pension payments when they can retire as 67 year olds, although that will increase over the next 20 years.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 12:10:38 AM
Listen to this spokesperson for Corbyn, Dawn Butler, to understand why Corbyn and his inexperienced shadow cabinet in the Labour party are so unfit for government that the Conservatives and the right wing media will tr**p all over them.

Later in the day Butler had to apologise to Costa Coffee for wrongly accusing them of not paying taxes in the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p050mzc6 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p050mzc6)
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2017, 12:15:29 AM
I didn't bring inflation into it as that wasn't asked, so the pay drop didn't happen but clearly with inflation yes then that would be the case...

Either way we have tighten, like most household the purse strings based on earnings, public sector jobs have far greater benefits than private.. great pensions and holidays sick schemes to help with hangovers  ;)

Any teacher who has not been in receipt of a pay increase via incremental progression or via an additional teaching allowance for other responsibilities has experienced the following:

1. A pay freeze during three out of the last five years and then only a 1% pay increase against official inflation at a higher rate so a considerable effective pay decrease in real terms.

2. An increase in National Insurance payments since April 2016 as a contracted in charge replaced the old contracted out rate to take account of the serious decrease in future pension payments.

3. An increase in the percentage of pay taken for pension contributions which increases as your salary increases.  % of pay taken for pension payments has increased from 6% to almost 7% for lower earners up to nearly 12% of gross salary payment for the highest paid teachers.

4. An increase in the National Pension Age to 67 from 60 for the vast majority of teachers which means that they cannot access their pensions without an actuarial reduction of 5% per year for every year below 67.

5. A removal from the final salary pension scheme and transfer to the average salary scheme which greatly reduces the pension available even when supplemented by the state pension as available by contracted in National Insurance payments.

6. No tax free lump sum along with the pension at retirement unless you commute a significant part of the annual pension.

So, every teacher has had a significant actual pay reduction, a significant real pay reduction  and a major erosion of their expected pension payments when they can retire as 67 year olds, although that will increase over the next 20 years.

Everyone's tax or insurance has changed but you basic pay salary had not been deducted, paying more taxes or more into your pension has not changed your annual wage just your take home pay.

I'm paying more tax and my retirement won't be till I'm 67 so why would it be any different for the public sector and private sector? My pension will be a state pension plus the various jobs I've been in, which are small pensions I paid into are frozen currently.. 10 years in one company 3 in another 2 in another and one I'm currently on which is very basic..

teachers will have a far better pension than anyone in the private sector will ever have so overall they aren't doing too bad
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 12:30:20 AM
The point that Dougal Maguire was making was that the amount of money taken home each month has been reduced or eroded both in real terms and actual terms and I have shown you how it has been reduced due to increased NIC and pension payments for teachers.

Teachers no longer have the gilt edged pensions of those who left the profession aged 50 or more after 2012.  The average salary scheme will be worth even less than the reduction faced by those who were move from the 1/80 scheme with a lump sum to 1/60 scheme with no lump sum when they became teachers from 2007 onwards.  The average salary scheme will not pay an amount that will be considered a living wage by the time these teachers begin to access it.  It will have to be supplemented by the state pension scheme when the teacher reaches the NPA to give a meagre payment.  Also the pay freezes and 1% pay rises experienced to date and going into the future will further reduce the average salary pensions.

Anyone who is not a superannuated public sector worker can now access their pension pot and reject the corrupt but guaranteed annuity scheme.  They can then manage their own pension pot from age 55.  Teachers and other public sector workers are now tied into average salary schemes which depend on other similar workers paying in ever increasing amounts to pay the pensions of those retired ahead of them and living ever longer.  No pension pots to access.

Use this app to see how little your wife will get when she retires:

http://apps.education-ni.gov.uk/appPenCalc/pencalc.aspx (http://apps.education-ni.gov.uk/appPenCalc/pencalc.aspx)
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Dougal Maguire on April 21, 2017, 12:35:39 AM
Owen, I wish you luck trying to get that message home to him. He's playing with semantics to mask the fact that yet again he's speaking from the hip with no evidence to support what he's saying
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Tony Baloney on April 21, 2017, 12:55:34 AM
Not bad for working 195 days a year  ;D
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 01:24:53 AM
Not bad for working 195 days a year  ;D

And only 1265 hours.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 06:08:47 AM
Listen to this spokesperson for Corbyn, Dawn Butler, to understand why Corbyn and his inexperienced shadow cabinet in the Labour party are so unfit for government that the Conservatives and the right wing media will tr**p all over them.

Later in the day Butler had to apologise to Costa Coffee for wrongly accusing them of not paying taxes in the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p050mzc6 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p050mzc6)
The election will depend on whether or not Labour can convince voters of what is actually happening. . It is psychological. The cupboard is bare and the Tories are saying it is great.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 21, 2017, 07:47:41 AM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.

Have you watched both of them in debates or how exactly could you draw that conclusion?

Theresa May struggles to think on her feet when veering away from pre rehearsed answers. She is a poor debater and wants to avoid such a contest for that reason. I can however see her agreeing to some watered down version of a debate purely to avoid the cowardly accusations being fired at her by opponents.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2017, 07:59:45 AM
Not bad for working 195 days a year  ;D

And only 1265 hours.

So with over 20 years service she's doing alright, obviously had she been older or longer in service then she be better off but she's still got 15 plus years to work, not going to be millionaires but that's the public sector, teaching is a vocation, you're not doing it for the money  ;D
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: johnneycool on April 21, 2017, 08:29:50 AM
Too many West Wing watchers talking about empty chair debates!

May would absolutely steamroll through Corbyn in a debate anyway. Labour should be delighted to get away from the prospect.

Have you watched both of them in debates or how exactly could you draw that conclusion?

Theresa May struggles to think on her feet when veering away from pre rehearsed answers. She is a poor debater and wants to avoid such a contest for that reason. I can however see her agreeing to some watered down version of a debate purely to avoid the cowardly accusations being fired at her by opponents.

Corbyn would probably get the better of her alright as May comes across as very wooden and intransigent, but Mary Doll would wipe the floor with all off them, she's a serious operator that Sturgeon one.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 21, 2017, 08:58:20 AM
Have any of you seen Corbyn on PMQs every week ????
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 09:09:07 AM
The Brexit spin is very flimsy . It is emotional rather than rational and the Tories don't want May to flop in front of the cameras.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 21, 2017, 10:00:28 AM
Have any of you seen Corbyn on PMQs every week ????

Precisely - he's a disaster when given a platform.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 21, 2017, 10:05:17 AM
Obama kept his cool against Senator "mood swing" McCain and wiped the floor with Mitt Romney.

Obama lost a debate to Romney (the first I think). Badly.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 10:08:18 AM
Have any of you seen Corbyn on PMQs every week ????

Precisely - he's a disaster when given a platform.

Actually, on watching most weeks, both of them are very poor. They 'sloganise' rather than debate often saying and replying on separate lines fed to them beforehand and end up trading insults.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 21, 2017, 10:14:53 AM
Moving away from May and Corbyn, I see Douglas Carswell, who had already left UKIP, won't be running again. Farage has said he won't run (although I wouldn't put it past him to do yet another 180) but it begs the question now more than ever, why does the party continue to exist?! Will this finally be the end of it?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 10:31:16 AM
Moving away from May and Corbyn, I see Douglas Carswell, who had already left UKIP, won't be running again. Farage has said he won't run (although I wouldn't put it past him to do yet another 180) but it begs the question now more than ever, why does the party continue to exist?! Will this finally be the end of it?

Got over 4 million votes in 2015 but no return due to distribution across GB due to no stronghold as required by FPTP elections. They need PR, i.e. the significant number of MEPs.

Infighting and useless leadership will continue to ensure their decline but the Little Englanders and that mentality will continue to prevail throughout England so they will never go away.  Note how Tories will play Brexit card to pull most onboard.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: gallsman on April 21, 2017, 10:37:41 AM
Those 4 million votes were prior to Brexit becoming government policy though. I wonder how they'll get on this time - Nutall is an absolute buffon
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 10:38:59 AM
UKIP had 2 policies.  Leave and grammar schools. The Tories adopted both which was amazing. The party will be around until the end of the Brexit process probably.

The KIP in UKIP is very appropriate.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: DuffleKing on April 21, 2017, 10:49:02 AM
A lot of people here obviously have not actually paid any attention to the personal performances of either corbyn or may. May is horrific unless reading an auto cue or prepared mantra. Corbyn is no more than a decent off the cuff orator but he is light years ahead of may.

PMQs are an embarrassment. Corbyn consistently catches may out and asks questions she cannot answer. The fact that she reverts to scripted sound bites and never answers questions (literally) when this happens seems to entirely satisfy political commentary and journalism.

There is a very definite state of affairs here that the notion that Corbyn and a political approach that priorities societal values is unpalatable to the masses or unelectable. I firmly believe the masses have consumed this narrative while without analysis as it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

The question is whether people will follow the media mantra at the polling stations as they have done 99% of the time or if they vote their minds as with Brexit and as Americans did with Trump. In both of those instances the media direction was way off and accompanying polls laughably out.

It never ceases to amaze me how working class brits can vote for Tory workhouse masters en masse when they are scared (usually by a succinct media campaign). The tories are parasites with middle and executive class interests at heart. This incarnation is particularly unscrupulous and I expect ruthless when the time comes. Their policy u turns since May took over have been staggering and have gone largely unquestioned. Their best people are not even in the cabinet. Ffs look at the foreign office, treasury, home office, brexit dept. It's laughable. May herself was a horrendous Home Secretary, who many believe was stayed from execution from government by the brexit result.

British politics and particularly British political journalism is a shambles.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 21, 2017, 11:34:32 AM
A lot of people here obviously have not actually paid any attention to the personal performances of either corbyn or may. May is horrific unless reading an auto cue or prepared mantra. Corbyn is no more than a decent off the cuff orator but he is light years ahead of may.

PMQs are an embarrassment. Corbyn consistently catches may out and asks questions she cannot answer. The fact that she reverts to scripted sound bites and never answers questions (literally) when this happens seems to entirely satisfy political commentary and journalism.


+1  see above, I watch PMQs most weeks and May has no spontaneity and unable to respond without insult or slogan.


It never ceases to amaze me how working class brits can vote for Tory workhouse masters en masse when they are scared (usually by a succinct media campaign). The tories are parasites with middle and executive class interests at heart. This incarnation is particularly unscrupulous and I expect ruthless when the time comes. Their policy u turns since May took over have been staggering and have gone largely unquestioned. Their best people are not even in the cabinet. Ffs look at the foreign office, treasury, home office, brexit dept. It's laughable. May herself was a horrendous Home Secretary, who many believe was stayed from execution from government by the brexit result.

British politics and particularly British political journalism is a shambles.

I believe that many of the English and the Welsh are serf-like.  Many of them prefer to elect Tories almost by default despite the suffering inflicted on the general population earning less than as much as £60-70K per household per annum by the austerity measures put in place by Cameron and Osborne since 2010.  They prefer to be governed by Tories with no interest in their welfare and conditions than allow Corbyn who they consider to be bereft of any ability to run the country. 

Corbyn has no hope of gaining any seats because he has to convince previous Conservative voters to change to Labour and they show no interest in doing so given his offer because in their serf-like mentality they prefer to doff the cap to the ruling Tory class because they want strong government.

The media has largely exposed Corbyn as a clown and those around him share his limited abilities, e.g. Dawn Butler on R4 and now the shadow Education minister on SKY news.

Labour needs the like of Yvette Cooper to take on destroy the Tories as she regularly does with T May in PMQs.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 12:01:14 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 21, 2017, 12:12:49 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: AQMP on April 21, 2017, 12:22:04 PM
Obama kept his cool against Senator "mood swing" McCain and wiped the floor with Mitt Romney.

Obama lost a debate to Romney (the first I think). Badly.

I actually thought that Corbyn's speech yesterday was quite  good.  Most of the media have already decided that the narrative is "Corbyn is a disaster" and "May heading for landslide".
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 12:22:12 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.
They have a good few safe seats.
I think the Tories are vulnerable on the economy.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: johnneycool on April 21, 2017, 12:38:58 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.

Corbyn needs to convince his Labour parliamentary colleagues but he seems to be fine with grass roots labour members who keep voting him in.
Whether that grass routes support translates to the general public is another matter and yes the Media have already decided he's a dead duck especially the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: yellowcard on April 21, 2017, 12:58:09 PM
A lot of people here obviously have not actually paid any attention to the personal performances of either corbyn or may. May is horrific unless reading an auto cue or prepared mantra. Corbyn is no more than a decent off the cuff orator but he is light years ahead of may.

PMQs are an embarrassment. Corbyn consistently catches may out and asks questions she cannot answer. The fact that she reverts to scripted sound bites and never answers questions (literally) when this happens seems to entirely satisfy political commentary and journalism.

There is a very definite state of affairs here that the notion that Corbyn and a political approach that priorities societal values is unpalatable to the masses or unelectable. I firmly believe the masses have consumed this narrative while without analysis as it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

The question is whether people will follow the media mantra at the polling stations as they have done 99% of the time or if they vote their minds as with Brexit and as Americans did with Trump. In both of those instances the media direction was way off and accompanying polls laughably out.

It never ceases to amaze me how working class brits can vote for Tory workhouse masters en masse when they are scared (usually by a succinct media campaign). The tories are parasites with middle and executive class interests at heart. This incarnation is particularly unscrupulous and I expect ruthless when the time comes. Their policy u turns since May took over have been staggering and have gone largely unquestioned. Their best people are not even in the cabinet. Ffs look at the foreign office, treasury, home office, brexit dept. It's laughable. May herself was a horrendous Home Secretary, who many believe was stayed from execution from government by the brexit result.

British politics and particularly British political journalism is a shambles.

Nail on head.

The mainstream English media will try and control the narrative of the election and the power of Newscorps and Murdoch media outlets cannot be underestimated in the UK. Their own self interests are best served with the Tories in charge and their editorial content reflects this fact. They have already tried to create an image of May as a strong leader in the mould of Thatcher when in reality the only commonality is the fact that she is a woman. The Tories and May in particular have flip flopped in the manner of someone who is making it up as they go along. 
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: AQMP on April 21, 2017, 01:20:02 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.

Corbyn needs to convince his Labour parliamentary colleagues but he seems to be fine with grass roots labour members who keep voting him in.
Whether that grass routes support translates to the general public is another matter and yes the Media have already decided he's a dead duck especially the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg.

Yes, Kuenssberg is very bad at keeping her bias hidden.  I used to be a fan of BBC's Newsnight.  However I've been struck the past two nights by the marked difference in tone and style of Emily Maitlis' interviews with Ruth Davidson of the Scottish Tories and Labour MP Andrew Gwynne.  There was also a profile of Theresa May that was basically a Party Political Broadcast. 
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2017, 01:45:08 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Tony Baloney on April 21, 2017, 01:49:28 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.

Corbyn needs to convince his Labour parliamentary colleagues but he seems to be fine with grass roots labour members who keep voting him in.
Whether that grass routes support translates to the general public is another matter and yes the Media have already decided he's a dead duck especially the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg.
Corbyn received c. 250k votes in the leadership election and Labour received c. 9 million votes in the last GE so there is a gulf between paid up members, many of whom will be hardline "Reds" and the general Labour voting public. Being a nice man with solid principles just isn't enough.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Avondhu star on April 21, 2017, 01:54:44 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs she showed last night on Prime Time
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2017, 01:58:55 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs she showed last night on Prime Time

rule 1 please
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: johnneycool on April 21, 2017, 02:00:16 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs she showed last night on Prime Time

rule 1 please

She's old enough to be your Ma Milltown!!!!
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2017, 02:00:58 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs she showed last night on Prime Time

rule 1 please

She's old enough to be your Ma Milltown!!!!

Reaching for sick bucket
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: DuffleKing on April 21, 2017, 02:25:47 PM
Corbyn has to convince the floating voters in the middle that Labour will be better for them. The Tory economic record is atrocious.  This is why May's pitch is emotional.

Corbyn needs to convince quite a lot of Labour voters I would say too, which is why they haven't a hope.

Corbyn needs to convince his Labour parliamentary colleagues but he seems to be fine with grass roots labour members who keep voting him in.
Whether that grass routes support translates to the general public is another matter and yes the Media have already decided he's a dead duck especially the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg.
Corbyn received c. 250k votes in the leadership election and Labour received c. 9 million votes in the last GE so there is a gulf between paid up members, many of whom will be hardline "Reds" and the general Labour voting public. Being a nice man with solid principles just isn't enough.

It's a start and it's more than Mr Burns in a dress has going for her
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Hardy on April 21, 2017, 03:32:09 PM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs she showed last night on Prime Time

rule 1 please

She's old enough to be your Ma Milltown!!!!

She has so many kids, she could be.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 21, 2017, 05:26:44 PM

   https://www.ft.com/content/d8bbdb92-2616-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

   FT

Tory officials say that Sir Lynton and his campaign colleagues discussed on Thursday a blog by Nate Silver, the US elections statistician, who said that UK polls were “terrible” and that the UK snap election was “riskier than it seems”.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Jell 0 Biafra on April 22, 2017, 04:35:54 AM
So is it the case that when you join a certain media organisation or all being the case it seems lately, that you have to toe the line in terms of your views and questioning of people? Seems a disater area if you are wanting to become a serious journalist only to be told to read the autocue and foolw these lines of thought......

Which Journo's have bucked the trend on these matters? Jon Snow?
I wouldn't mind seeing Miriam O Callaghan buck with the legs
she showed last night on Prime Time

Classy as usual.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 22, 2017, 09:24:58 PM
Tories heading for a landslide according to the latest poll
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 22, 2017, 11:40:54 PM
This poll doesn't seem quite as one sided
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: seafoid on April 23, 2017, 08:34:14 AM
This poll doesn't seem quite as one sided
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html
They have to raise taxes. Lower taxes and smaller Government are Tory articles of faith. Most Tory voters have no idea how awful the numbers are.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: bennydorano on April 23, 2017, 08:43:24 AM
I see their methodology being questioned for mixing data of two separate polls, wouldn't be like the Daily Mail to push a Rothermere agenda (anti tax rise) / try and fire a shot across May's bow in case she gets too uppity.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Minder on April 23, 2017, 10:30:31 AM
This poll doesn't seem quite as one sided
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html
They have to raise taxes. Lower taxes and smaller Government are Tory articles of faith. Most Tory voters have no idea how awful the numbers are.

I don't think anyone knows Seafoid, except you
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: Owen Brannigan on April 23, 2017, 11:01:11 AM
This poll doesn't seem quite as one sided
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html

You can be sure someone will be required to down play the extent of the Conservative lead to prevent complacency and nobody better to do it than the Daily Mail.
Title: Re: UK General Election 2017
Post by: armaghniac on April 23, 2017, 11:07:22 AM
I'd say the Daily Mail playing down the lead is very likely.

I don't think anyone knows Seafoid, except you

in fairness, the UK Institute for Fiscal Studies would have done some research and they agree with Seafoid.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9141