China Coronavirus

[Orior]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

It might seem an odd question but by any chance are you a chemical engineer by trade?

Nope. I'm in IT, and my friend is a landlord.

Thanks for that.

(I assume you know why I had to ask?)

Not really. Did you think I work for pfizer?

[lenny]

Oxford vaccine at least 70% effective and likely to be 90% effective in certain dosage combinations. The best plan seems to be a low dose followed by a second slightly higher dose.
This is a really good, as this is already being produced and the logistics are straightforward as it can be kept in the fridge.

But we've been told repeatedly on here that science has failed us!! All messing aside, it's great news so far

Having read the BBC article on how they've developed this so quickly I suddenly have some grounds for hope... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55041371

I know, I know... never trust the BBC

Following a good twitter thread today about this exact question. People saying they are not taking this vaccine that has been 'rushed' whereas previous ones take 10 years. A guy on claiming to be involved in that line of work countering that argument saying in this usual 10 years very little is done bar waiting for papers to be signed and fund raising to move onto next stage.

This vaccine has followed all the usual testing methods and timescales. It will actually be safer than previous vaccines because it has been tested on way more people than usual. This is because so much money has been thrown at it in an effort to get economies up and running and life back to normal. With previous vaccines years or months can go by between phases waiting for funding. This time some of the phases ran concurrently to speed up the process.

[lenny]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

I have a friend who works in a hospital and they are overrun and under huge pressure wrt covid. UK figures Death from flu 2017 - 458, 2018 - 1596, 2019 - 1213, 2020- 394 so far. Deaths from Covid 48168. Those figures show covid is way more lethal than any flu. The one about the deaths being skewed is absolute rubbish. If anything the numbers of cvid deaths are significantly higher. At least one in 10 people who are hospitalised have to return to hospital within a month. Many of those go on to die but none of those count in the statistics. Also a large number of people have passed away at home and haven't been tested, especially early on in the pandemic when doctors were advising people not to go to hospital unless they were really struggling to breathe.

[five points]

I have a friend who works in a hospital and they are overrun and under huge pressure wrt covid. UK figures Death from flu 2017 - 458, 2018 - 1596, 2019 - 1213, 2020- 394 so far. Deaths from Covid 48168. Those figures show covid is way more lethal than any flu. The one about the deaths being skewed is absolute rubbish. If anything the numbers of cvid deaths are significantly higher. At least one in 10 people who are hospitalised have to return to hospital within a month. Many of those go on to die but none of those count in the statistics. Also a large number of people have passed away at home and haven't been tested, especially early on in the pandemic when doctors were advising people not to go to hospital unless they were really struggling to breathe.

Those figures look way off.

According to the HSE "In Ireland, between 200 and 500 people, mainly older people, die from flu each winter." https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

I'd expect the British figures, pro rata with population, to be 10 times higher, 2,000 to 5,000 every winter.

[lenny]

I have a friend who works in a hospital and they are overrun and under huge pressure wrt covid. UK figures Death from flu 2017 - 458, 2018 - 1596, 2019 - 1213, 2020- 394 so far. Deaths from Covid 48168. Those figures show covid is way more lethal than any flu. The one about the deaths being skewed is absolute rubbish. If anything the numbers of cvid deaths are significantly higher. At least one in 10 people who are hospitalised have to return to hospital within a month. Many of those go on to die but none of those count in the statistics. Also a large number of people have passed away at home and haven't been tested, especially early on in the pandemic when doctors were advising people not to go to hospital unless they were really struggling to breathe.

Those figures look way off.

According to the HSE "In Ireland, between 200 and 500 people, mainly older people, die from flu each winter." https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

I'd expect the British figures, pro rata with population, to be 10 times higher, 2,000 to 5,000 every winter.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmF6qdWXYAAoBNx?format=jpg&name=medium

The stats are from the ONS. Official figures but I should have clarified they're for the first 8 months of the year to allow for comparison.

[armaghniac]

I have a friend who works in a hospital and they are overrun and under huge pressure wrt covid. UK figures Death from flu 2017 - 458, 2018 - 1596, 2019 - 1213, 2020- 394 so far. Deaths from Covid 48168. Those figures show covid is way more lethal than any flu. The one about the deaths being skewed is absolute rubbish. If anything the numbers of cvid deaths are significantly higher. At least one in 10 people who are hospitalised have to return to hospital within a month. Many of those go on to die but none of those count in the statistics. Also a large number of people have passed away at home and haven't been tested, especially early on in the pandemic when doctors were advising people not to go to hospital unless they were really struggling to breathe.

However, Covid deaths where the person has another illness are routinely disregarded as "exaggerated", yet of course many people who die of flu also had existing illness.
Excess mortality is informative, things are not too bad in this island, but excess mortality in Wales in October was even higher than in April and this is also true of some European countries, notably Switzerland.

Those figures look way off.

According to the HSE "In Ireland, between 200 and 500 people, mainly older people, die from flu each winter." https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

I'd expect the British figures, pro rata with population, to be 10 times higher, 2,000 to 5,000 every winter.

[lfdown2]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

[armaghniac]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

[johnnycool]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

Student nurses from here who complete their training are offered better paid jobs over in London, Australia and the likes than they are here at home.
Does that make sense to anyone?

Why go to the bother of financing their training and then not offer competitive salaries to ensure that they stay here. Am I missing something?

[GetOverTheBar]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

Student nurses from here who complete their training are offered better paid jobs over in London, Australia and the likes than they are here at home.
Does that make sense to anyone?

Why go to the bother of financing their training and then not offer competitive salaries to ensure that they stay here. Am I missing something?

Because nobody cared until about 8 months ago when they started to question their own mortality in the face of morning, noon and night Covid and why we never backed the NHS.

The NHS for years has been underfunded, cut upon and generally run on fumes. Then all of a sudden Covid came along, probably to be honest wasn't even all that bad...but completely showed it up for what had happened under many, many previous governments. It wasn't Boris' fault, he just happened to be the unlucky one really. Those cuts were also reflected in the pay schemes.

When they talk of hospitals being overrun, sure, Covid is a problem, no doubt but hospitals here and all over the UK were overrun most winters anyway because they were run on a shoe string. Look, nobody could have predicted Covid - but this will happen again, there is no doubt whatsoever. We, hopefully will be better prepared - the world was caught with the pants down and then you just look at the new defence package the UK is splashing out on, there is plenty of money......just none of it was deemed priority at any stage to the health services.

[lfdown2]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

I realise that - so that then begs the question if we were unable to staff it why 'build' it.

If it is due to staff self isolating then can better testing assist with this - i.e. not have staff self isolating as they have been deemed a close contact but instead test.

We appear to be an attractive option for overseas staff previously in the nursing profession, are those countries now retaining those staff?

What is being done to repatriate staff as highlighted by JC?

Are there tasks carried out by nurses currently that could be carried out by auxiliary staff in the short term to reduced the ratio of nurses per ward - can doctors/consultants be tasked with nursing roles in certain circumstances due to staff levels?

IMHO sweet fuk all has been done for the past 9 months except fire fighting, we had a lull in the Summer months where we should have been looking at contingency planning for staff levels, we didn't. We are where we are but my worry is that if we can reduce the levels to a more palatable level again that we will spend that period back slapping and eating out to help out while we await a further surge ad nauseum until a vaccine is rolled out.

[Milltown Row2]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

I realise that - so that then begs the question if we were unable to staff it why 'build' it.

If it is due to staff self isolating then can better testing assist with this - i.e. not have staff self isolating as they have been deemed a close contact but instead test.

We appear to be an attractive option for overseas staff previously in the nursing profession, are those countries now retaining those staff?

What is being done to repatriate staff as highlighted by JC?

Are there tasks carried out by nurses currently that could be carried out by auxiliary staff in the short term to reduced the ratio of nurses per ward - can doctors/consultants be tasked with nursing roles in certain circumstances due to staff levels?

IMHO sweet fuk all has been done for the past 9 months except fire fighting, we had a lull in the Summer months where we should have been looking at contingency planning for staff levels, we didn't. We are where we are but my worry is that if we can reduce the levels to a more palatable level again that we will spend that period back slapping and eating out to help out while we await a further surge ad nauseum until a vaccine is rolled out.

Were they built for Covid or was it the case that they they were built with the building with a view to one day being able to staff it and use it..

the saying, better looking at it than looking for it, springs to mind.. Capacity isn't all about the space as its been mentioned. though that be a cracking headline for Nolan

[imtommygunn]

Honestly the nightingale hospitals imo were done for political reasons. Look at what we're doing stunt. Logistically from what I have been led to believe they have been a nightmare. Basically it's a lottery with what staff and what staff skill set is there so they just expect an experienced nurse or two to coordinate workers from other areas.

[johnnycool]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/11/24/news/leaked-photographs-expose-impact-of-nursing-shortages-on-nightingale--2139404/

"LEAKED photographs from inside Northern Ireland's Nightingale hospital have revealed some wards are being used as storage spaces - amid claims others remain unopened due to severe nursing shortages."

So when we are being told that our hospitals are being overrun what is really the issue is that the hospital staff are being overrun.

I agree that we absolutely needed a further lockdown due to the current trends, however my biggest issue is the lack of information from government - the 'we're all in this together' narrative got tired quite a while ago.

I would like to understand what is being done now to forward plan for future 'surges' because from what I can see there had been nothing done during the summer by the department.

- testing of staff on a regular basis
- short term contracts for staff from overseas
- streamline the existing pool to increase bed levels

these are things that I would hope are being looked at amongst others and I would like our journalists to be asking these questions.

It is relatively easy to rent a big shed and put beds in it, but staff are not so easily found. The only benefit of another building might be the segregation of Covid patients from non Covid patients. Staff from overseas are not a great option as Covid is widespread and staff are needed everywhere else also. Streamlining the existing stock is mostly a case of cancelling less vital procedures and increasing waiting lists.

Student nurses from here who complete their training are offered better paid jobs over in London, Australia and the likes than they are here at home.
Does that make sense to anyone?

Why go to the bother of financing their training and then not offer competitive salaries to ensure that they stay here. Am I missing something?

Because nobody cared until about 8 months ago when they started to question their own mortality in the face of morning, noon and night Covid and why we never backed the NHS.

The NHS for years has been underfunded, cut upon and generally run on fumes. Then all of a sudden Covid came along, probably to be honest wasn't even all that bad...but completely showed it up for what had happened under many, many previous governments. It wasn't Boris' fault, he just happened to be the unlucky one really. Those cuts were also reflected in the pay schemes.

When they talk of hospitals being overrun, sure, Covid is a problem, no doubt but hospitals here and all over the UK were overrun most winters anyway because they were run on a shoe string. Look, nobody could have predicted Covid - but this will happen again, there is no doubt whatsoever. We, hopefully will be better prepared - the world was caught with the pants down and then you just look at the new defence package the UK is splashing out on, there is plenty of money......just none of it was deemed priority at any stage to the health services.

What do you mean it wasn't Boris' fault? He was a member of the Tory party during their austerity campaign and cut the living daylights out of the NHS budget as well as social services and all that.

It's very much his fault and the attempts of the current Tory Gov to disassociate itself from their previous governments should not go unchallenged.

[armaghniac]

Temporary hospitals can work if there is one region much worse than everywhere else. If things are really bad in Derry but not so much in Armagh and Down then perhaps you could redirect some qualified staff towards Derry.
In the US they are now in a bad way for staff, although they have enough ventilators etc.

And while NHS cuts contributed to this, if Covid grows every week than it will overwhelm even a good system, as they are now discovering in Switzerland and Germany.