The Horse racing thread

[maddog]

Got a few of these on email so will post them up


BANGOR-ON-DEE RACECOURSE CHELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING
Thursday, March 3rd
Bangor put on their first ever Cheltenham Preview Evening which proved a very popular night (doubtless the red cabbage supper being the main draw) so I will be amazed if this is now not an annual event here. The panel comprised leading trainer Donald McCain Jnr (DM), broadcaster and commentator Stewart Machin (SM) who won a strong running of the most dapper looking shirt contest, local stud owner and influential breeder Richard Aston (RA) and Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ). The evening was chaired by racecourse commentator Darren Owen (DO).
SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
DM: I couldn't believe they were considering the Champion Hurdle for Cue Card – the form wasn't good enough. It was a no brainer that he should go for this and he'll take the world of beating. I was very taken with Recession Proof at Newbury as you could call him the winner half-way down the back. It's top-class handicap form.
SM: I couldn't back Cue Card at the price. Spirit Son has a high cruising speed and jumps quickly and Henderson can't wait to get him on better ground. I'd rather take 6/1 Spirit Son than 9/4 Card Card.
RA: I helped sell Cue Card as a foal so have watched him very closely and to have achieved what he has achieved so far is extraordinary given his make and shape. He is my Day 1 nap.
PJ: On official ratings, there are grounds for arguing that Cue Card is too big at 9/4 but I've seen so many shorties beaten in this race. I respect Spirit Son a lot but the value here and now if he runs is Day Of A Lifetime at 25/1 for Mullins who has twice won the race with outsiders and very impressive only hurdles start where he wore earplugs having proven unsteerable in the Champion Bumper. He is the best each-way Play when non-runner no-bet comes into force as still in Neptune.
ARKLE TROPHY
DM: I was very taken with Medermit at Sandown. I couldn't have Finian's Rainbow because of the way he jumps – he's too straight backed. Ghizao strikes me as very tough. I was standing at the last when he won at Cheltenham and he wasn't
stopping.
SM: Medermit is the most likely winner. He stays further, has a high cruising speed, his jumping is getting better with every race and I liked the way he found more when Captain Chris challenged him at Sandown. Finian's Rainbow was fizzy going to the start at Warwick and had no cover in the race and I don't think it is a given he would have beaten Kilmurry if that horse did not break down. If he runs here, Captain Chris' jumping is an issue for me as he is better right-handed and that underlying problem could see them take the easier race on paper instead (Jewson).
RA: I know connections of Captain Chris are very sweet on him as an individual and believe there is a lot more improvement to come when he gets better ground. He is getting better from race to race as is his jumping.
PJ: Goodish ground would concern me a little for Ghizao, Realt Dubh has been beating the worst lot of Irish 2m novice chasers I've seen for a long time and Finian's Rainbow's jumping went to pieces at Warwick when he couldn't get his own way so it has to be Medermit for all the reasons Stewart has already outlined plus he is likely to be the highest rated hurdler in the field by a huge margin if Starluck doesn't run, and I don't think he will, and they have won half of the last ten runnings.
CHAMPION HURDLE
DM: I'm absolutely relieved that Jason's ban has been revised and he can ride Peddlers Cross. It hasn't been pleasant the last few days. To be honest, I think I was worse than Jason, who didn't show much, but he was very subdued the last couple of days when I think it suddenly hit him he might not be riding. It's a massive relief – we were only trying to do our best. I think Peddlers Cross' defeat of Binocular at Newbury has been under-rated. Before the race everyone was saying the small field was not going to suit us but we did the donkey work and won it the hard way, then
afterwards people said it did suit us! The way he gets himself to the front and travels is mind blowing and we don't know how good he is. He was 85-90% at Newbury – he didn't have an edge on him. He had a blow turning in and pickled up three times in the straight. The better the ground, the better he'll be but he will cope with bad ground. At Kelso it was very deep and the performance of the 2nd, Bygones of Brid, has been under-rated. Everyone in the north knows he's a very good horse on bad ground. Peddlers came out of Kelso tremendously well. Who do I fear? I think it's between us,
Binocular and Menorah. Hurricane Fly has only won in a bog in Ireland beating the same horse. I can't have him. That's the theory and it sounds good at the moment! Regards Overturn, he was beaten the moment he jumped off at Wincanton according to Jason. And previously at Kempton, Timmy Murphy said he was very disappointed with Starluck, which is not what I was hoping to hear.
SM: I do like track form here and Hurricane Fly doesn't have any whereas his three main rivals have all put up their best performance here. I just wonder if this may come a year too soon for Menorah as reigning Supreme winners haven't won for 40 years but the likes of Brave Inca and Hors La Loi won it later in their career and didn't he only really beat novices last time? It's between Binocular and Peddlers Cross for me and the latter is the better price but I would back them both.
RA: I just love Peddlers Cross' attitude to racing and would go for him but I have this down as just a three-horse race as wouldn't fancy Hurricane Fly.
PJ: Lack of track form is a worry for Hurricane Fly plus we only really know he is better than Solwhit who is vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot. Menorah will run well but just come up short for me as I don't think his form is strong enough as he beat two embryo chasers last time. Before the start of the season I had it between Binocular and Peddlers Cross and what I have seen on the track has only reinforced that view. Peddlers Cross is the better priced so better value but in my gut I just think Binocular will pick him up on the run-in. He has been trained for one race only so runs this season not bother me. I've already backed both.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT HURDLE
DM: Tornado Bob goes for this. He's not done anything wrong. Originally, Jason didn't think he was mature enough, but he's matured a fair bit. He didn't like the ground at Ascot last time but we were forced to go to get a run. He's been running well despite the ground. He doesn't lack foot and I didn't think the Neptune was that strong a race. Until I saw Oscar Wells on the TV. Really he's a chaser for next year. The RSA Chase nest year? Absolutely.
SM: There is not much strength in depth to this race. If you push my arm I would go with So Young at the prices. The fact they are talking of switching Bobs Worth for the Albert Bartlett would worry me, it suggested to me they preferred Minella Class before he got beat at Huntingdon.
RA: Oscars Well is the standout. I was very impressed with him in the Deloitte last time and can improve for Festival ground. First Lieutenant reminds me of Weapons Amnesty and give him a big chance also.
PJ: I can see a clean sweep for the Irish here as don't rate the British form at all. Bobs Worth was considered an EBF Final horse before he beat Rock On Ruby last time and that form is over-rated for me. I have no problem with Oscars Well except the value straight after the Deloitte has dried up and believe best bet here and now is So Young at 13/2 as if there is a horse that has the potential to blow the field away it could be him. Unbeaten in his last five races and trained by Willie Mullins who dropped him back to 2m last time in same race he did for Mikael D'Haguenet before he won this, if there is a special horse in the race, I think it would be So Young.
RSA CHASE
DM: Wymott has always found the job too easy and has an awful lot of ability. I was quite impressed by the way he picked up last time. Time For Rupert beat one of mine at Catterick a few years ago and I was really devastated as I fancied it a lot. Paul Webber's doing a great job with him. Can we beat him? It's a three mile novice chase around Cheltenham! And it's the first time these novices have taken each other on.
SM: This is a very good renewal in terms of strength in depth. If I wanted to back a 2/1 shot like Time For Rupert in a race like the RSA I would have wanted him to have the perfect preparation which he hasn't so would rather watch at those odds. Mikael D'Haguenet makes too many mistakes so I like the look of Wymott and Wayward Prince as both are unflashy, strong staying, far from exciting types but that is the kind of horse that wins the RSA.
RA: I bought Time For Rupert as a foal and sold him to Paul Webber as a three-year-old and he was a revelation last season and I see no chinks in him. He has got everything, he jumps, has class, stays, has guts and a superb physique.
PJ: Time For Rupert is very short for a horse trying to defy 47 years of history in that he hasn't run in the same calendar and clearly everything has not gone 100% smoothly. Like Aiteenthirtythree, he has only had two chase starts whereas the last 11 winners had at least three. Aiteenthirtythree looks too gorky for me at present and not a 'now' horse and more of a Newbury type in slow ground and I can see him getting into all kinds of trouble on Good ground. I like Jessies Dream most as he is crying out for Good ground being by Presenting and the step up to three miles and he did beat two subsequent dual Grade 1 winners when winning the Drinmore.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
DM: No strong view to be honest.
SM: Does Master Minded need it soft now? That would worry me and Big Zeb has been unimpressive in Ireland this season. In the cold light of day just how good was last year's Champion Chase anyway? Probably not good enough to win it this year. I don't fancy Somersby as at the 2m point at Ascot he was well behind Master Minded in that 2m1f race. Captain Cee Bee could be the e/w value. At his best fresh, he likes Good ground and beat Binocular in the Supreme so no worries about the course.The value has all gone about Woolcombe Folly.
RA: Question marks over everything. If Master Minded is on his game I think he will win. Big Zeb doesn't excite me.
PJ: Ground is a big worry for Master Minded and Big Zeb is a better horse anyway so should be favourite. Somersby will run on too late but I can see Woolcombe Folly or Captain Cee Bee have every chance but are they quite good enough? The value is 14/1 e/w Golden Silver who is in rude health and not far behind Big Zeb when both at their best. He has been pigeon-holed as a soft ground horse but I am not so sure and he can hit the frame under new exaggerated waiting tactics this season.
RYANAIR CHASE
DM: I have to support Riverside Theatre because I've bought his sister! He's very solid though.
SM: I place quite a lot of emphasis on track form, especially New Course form, and Poquelin does love the New Course whereas Tranquil Sea has looked far better on the Old Course and would he have it soft enough? Lack of track form puts me off Riverside Theatre to an extent so Poquelin will be a tough nut to crack.
RA: A big vested interest here as I bred Riverside Theatre and I think he will win. I don't agree he doesn't handle the course, I just thought the jockey gave up on him far too early in the Arkle last year and then he absolutely flew home. He has gears, is a good jumper and all ground comes alike to him and he is still improving.
PJ: Poquelin was also the solid one last year but he got beat then so do think he is vulnerable and believe Riverside Theatre probably has slightly more talent. I have been with Kalahari King e/w straight after he was third in the Victor Chandler Chase when very bad impeded but he is crying out for this trip on spring ground and has finished 423 at the last three Festivals and has also won at Aintree and Punchestown Festivals so he is only trained for the spring.
WORLD HURDLE
DM: Any Given Day hated the ground at Haydock – it was as testing as it's been in a long time – and was shattered afterwards. I'm hoping it was just the ground and am just waiting to see how he comes back over the next 10 days before committing. He's very tough and genuine. It's a terrible thing to say, but I just don't like Big Buck's, or should I say I just haven't taken to him. I do think he will take the world of beating. But it would freshen things up if something did. I love the way Grands Crus gallops and I'm not sure about him needing it soft. The Haydock hurdle course does not ride
as soft as people think. It's a myth. Horses kick the top off it.
SM: Looking at his action you can be forgiven for thinking that Grands Crus wants soft ground. The hurdles course on the New Course has a lot of racing so I think it will be on the easy side. He is a different style of horse to the 3m stayers that Big Buck's has usually been beating as he also has speed.
RA: Grands Crus appeals to me at the moment of a being a soft-ground horse. He is very good but whether he can beat Big Buck's is another matter.
PJ: Not a two horse race at all as Mourad is bang in this, in fact, I think he will be second to Big Buck's and not Grands Crus and is great value in a without Big Buck's book at 9/2, especially e/w as he is not finishing out of the first four. Mourad has looked very good this season and will be even better on Festival ground. I think Big Buck's will win but Mourad without the favourite is a better value bet.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
DM: I like tough horses like Marsh Warbler and Local Hero and not necessarily horses that set the world alight. A lot of horses disappointed at Haydock when Local Hero did so I would not worry about that defeat.
SM: Grandouet has rather inherited his position at the top of the betting and I can't get it out of my head how he was beaten at Wetherby. He doesn't appeal at the price. In fact none of them do. One hurdles run for Zarkander would worry me. Smad Place for me at a push after a good confidence booster last time.
RA: I've definitely got splinters from sitting on the fence on this race. Marsh Warbler if you twisted my arm.
PJ: I can't get Henderson's comment out of my head when Grandouet won at Newbury was that he was a flat track horse and would miss Cheltenham for Aintree. I think he has too much speed for a Triumph as does A Media Luz and fastish ground and undulations would worry me for big, shouldery filly like Unaccompanied even though I was taken with her Grade 1 win last time. I like Smad Place e/w as he will love a fast-run 2m1f with a stiff finish as all he does is stay for a yard with a top-notch record in the race and he ran well at Chepstow when third to Marsh Warbler considering he wasn't scoping right at the time in a tactical race that didn't play to his strengths. He may need a bit of juice but I like his e/w chance a lot.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE
DM: Storming Gale's entry has been scrapped. I was under bidder on Champion
Court at Doncaster and was very disappointed with him the last day – he hung. Kilcrea Kim beat Drill Sergeant here when I fancied Drill Sergeant like mad. I do like tough, hard horses like him in novice events. At a big price each-way I'd suggest Radetsky March. Jason has ridden him a couple of times and likes him. He'll keep galloping.
SM: A difficult race and I think there was an over-reaction to Back In Focus winning at Haydock on his hurdling debut. 7/1 is short off one run. I quite like Habbie Simpson if he runs here rather than the Coral Cup at 20/1 e/w as he is a tough sort which you need for this race.
RA: I like Champion Court. The yard have been under a cloud but have hot form now.
PJ: If it's Goodish ground, that would put me right off Back In Focus, Join Together and Court In Motion. The two I like are Kilcrea Kim and Champion Court and hope the former runs here rather the Pertemps Final as bringing high quality handicap hurdle form into this race is a big plus. Champion Court injured himself last time so I would ignore that and judge him on his debut win over hurdles in a Grade 2 where he did everything wrong but still won and is crying out for this step up to 3m.
GOLD CUP
DM: I'm with Imperial Commander all the way. He's a hell of a tool and it was a breath of fresh air when he won last year. You can't say Denman and Kauto Star have gone but they are not what they were – that's natural progression, isn't it? As for Long Run, Kempton is a hugely different place to Cheltenham. I hear Albertas Run will run here. Weird Al is also a likely runner.
SM: I've tied myself up in knots over this race which has been marred by seeing so little of the main contenders. I am not sure connections of Imperial Commander were as ebullient deep down about his Kempton workout as they made out last week but he is the reigning champ and is this race any stronger? Denman has lost seven of his last eight races and when I spoke to Nick Williams about Diamond Harry, he was most downcast last week saying he could be an autumn horse. I do still keep coming back to Imperial Commander.
RA: Out with the old and in with the new. Long Run underachieved in the RSA but he has the right profile and there is not enough evidence to suggest he doesn't handle Cheltenham and he certainly wasn't stopping when he won the King George so the trip will not be a problem.
PJ: Kauto Star has lost his speed, Denman has lost his mid-race ability to pulverise his rivals and no horse in 50 years has won Gold Cup off longer layoff than Imperial Commander and Diamond Harry. Kempes is very interesting as is coming right at the right time and will love decent ground which he hasn't had in Ireland and we don't know if Pandorama doesn't handle Good ground yet and he is the right kind of age and does keep on winning. Long Run is the most likely winner. 12 length winners of the King George would normally be starting about 5/2 for the Gold Cup and he is only six so likely to get even better. Both Cheltenham runs he had excuses of sorts, gone in coat in RSA and 2m4f in Paddy Power got him out of rhythm at a time when yard out of sorts a bit, but he has not run the New Course yet and I reckon all he does is stay so the extra distance can be in his favour. If any horse could win the race by 15 lengths, it is Long Run.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
DM: I'll be taking a team of 10-12 to Cheltenham. Cinders And Ashes, my bumper horse, worked really nicely here yesterday and we were delighted with him. Ebanour is more likely to wait for the Aintree bumper. The step up another 2f is made for him. Chamirey is fairly high quality. He had as easier race as I could have hoped he would at Newcastle. He goes in the 4m, gets the trip and will run a big race if he jumps.
FESTIVAL NAPS:
DM: Peddlers Cross
SM: Barafundle (Pertemps Final)
RA: Quevega
PJ: Medermit
DO: So Young

[maddog]

Cheltenham Preview Dublin
National Hunt
by riverforestraider (U11069563) 03 March 2011

Panel MC John mullin(MC) Barry Geraghty(BG) Davy Russell(DR) Colm Murphy(CM) Evan Williams(EW) Brian Flanagan(BF) Donn McClean(DMC) Paddy Power(PP).On the phone willie mullins/Paul Nicholls.

SNH
DR:Went for cue card, winner will be english, doubts zaidpour
BG:Cant decide which horse to ride, thinks cue card will win
BF:Back NH to horses with PP
EW:Recession proof top 3 and NH horses
CM:Cue card / recession proof
DMC:Spirit son



ARKLE
DR:Went with the highest rated hurdler stat Medermit unless starluck runs
DMC:medermit
BG:One of my best rides of the week Finians rainbow
EW:yes to starluck no for medermit
BF:Ghizao

CH
BG:No for HF and he likes Menorah/peddlers
DMC:Has doubts about HF
BF:Menorah, doesnt fancy binocular at all
EW:Menorah price to short, likes khyber kim at 25/
CM:Binocular
DR: Didnt sit on the fence at all, just came out and stated hurricane fly WILL win the champ hurdle!!
PP:Peddlers cross

NEPTUNE
BG:Oscars weels
DMC:Oscars wells
DR:Again came out with another bold statement, talking to paul townend who he described as a quiet jockey who doesnt go around bigging up horses,Paul told davy that so young is the best mullins horse going to cheltenham!
BF:Oscars wells
EW:Back the 2 irish horses reverse forecast
CM:Oscars wells
PP:IRISH 1-2

RSA CHASE
BG:TFR rock solid. MOTH good e/w
DR:Jessies dream not good enough to be 2nd fav
EW:1833 is a lovely horse, also likes wymott
CM:The race will suit his horse
DMC:Bostons angel e/w and like jessies dream, no to 1833.
BF:Would like to see wishfull thinking in this race

CC
EW:Big zeb
BG:Big zeb
DMC:Sizing europe is over priced arkle winners have decent record
PP:Cant beleive big zeb is not fav
CM: Big zeb is exactly where he wants him in his prep
DR:Likes sizing europe

BUMPER
BF:Big mention for cheltenian
CM:Raise the beat has a good chance
DR:APs horse star neuville and cheltianian
DMC:Ericht
EW: said keys but hes not runnin now

WORLD
BG:Big buck is a cert, used the quote buying noney
DMC:Likes mourad
PP:Solwhit e/w
DR:Solwhit has a chance, will be doin his best work late in the race
EW:BB
CM:BB, Banker of the week
BF:Mourad underrated

RYANAIR
BG:Poquelin/riverside thatre
CM:Was talkin to mcnamara and hes very bullish of tranquil sea
DR:Bet of the meeting tranquil sea
EW:Riverside thatre
BF:Another on the tranquil sea train, great value at 6/1
DMC:Kalahari king should have everything right for him.

TRIUMPH
BG:Sam winner biggest threat to his horse Grandouet
DMC:Very sweet on unaccompanied
EW:Very impressed with zarkander
DR:Forget all the dermot weld stats theyre going to cheltenham with a serious horse and he thinks she will win
DMC:Zarkander and unaccompanied against the field
PP:Zarkander

GOLD CUP
EW:Imperial commander to win
DR/BF/BG:All think denmans newbury run is the best bit of form in the book and pick him cause of this
DMC:Thinks the 2 irish horses kempes and pandorama have a good chance at nice prices
PP:Described Imperial commander as bullet proof

PP offered them all €150 charity bet
EW:Williams wishes in the grand annual
BF:PlanA in fred winter
CM:Tranquil sea
BG:Big Zeb
DR:25e/w on gagewellflyer in AB and 100win on hurricane fly
DMC:Some target NHC
JM:Just amazing foxhunters
PP:Recession proof

Mullins on phone
Delighted with quevega prep and its all systems go, drying ground will help HF, more improvement in kempes, quel esprit was impressive in ltown gallop will go for the RSA with MDH,in handicaps call the police and blackstairmountain have a chance, allure of illusion num1 bumper horse

Nicholls didnt give much info
Ghizao his best chance day 1, happy with mm big zeb one to beat, al ferof is improving will be better chaser next year, they all have to beat big bucks(thanks for that paul!)

[maddog]

from Exeter

Panel:
MC – Zoey Bird (ZB)
David Pipe (DP)
Nick Williams (NW)
Paul Nicholls (PN)
Philip Hobbs (PH)
Andrew King (AK)
Paddy Power, represented by Paul Binfield (PB)

TUESDAY

ZB: Let's start with the first race of the 2011 Festival, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle...Cue Card sets a very high standard...
NW: His best form was shown before Christmas so that would be a worry for me. Nicky Henderson's horses are flying and both of his (Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre) can shake up the favourite.
AK: Both of Henderson's horses are high class. Sprinter Sacre potentially better of the pair but whether they can deal with Cue Card is another matter.
PB: Barry Geraghty has a tough choice between the two Henderson horses but it'll take a good one to Beat Cue Card
PN: For me Spirit Son is the best of the two Henderson horses. He killed Cedre Bleu here (at Exeter) and I think quite a lot of Cedre Bleu. Al Ferof is a big price though, he jumps really well but he does have to improve.
PH: Cue Card is very good but I agree with Nick that not running for a while may be an issue. Dunraven Storm has a squeak if I can get him there but he banged a joint this week.



ZB: On to the Arkle, Paul, what about Ghizao?
PN: He's in good order and worked really well on Sunday. His form is good and he goes well fresh. He's had a little break which was always the plan as we're looking at good to Cheltenham then Aintree and then Punchestown. I can't have Finian's Rainbow so Medermit is the one to beat.
PH: We'll decide after this weekend about whether Captain Chris goes here or the Jewson. I think 2m4f is his trip but Richard Johnson thinks 2m is! Jewson looks easier.
PB: Starluck is interesting if connections decide to come here, not Aintree.
AK: I thought Captain Chris was unlucky to be beaten by Medermit at Sandown last time but Ghizao is still the one to beat.
NW: Finian's Rainbow has been running in uncompetitive heats and so Medermit shades it for me.
DP: I quite like Finian's Rainbow but Ghizao is rock solid. I'd prefer Captain Chris in the 2m4f race (Jewson).



ZB: Champion Hurdle, the main race of the entire meeting?
PH: Menorah is great. Everything has gone to plan, I'm very happy with him and it's all systems go.
AK: Binocular was very impressive last year and it's tough to oppose him this year. Menorah and Peddlers Cross the obvious dangers.
PB: Hurricane Fly is a big loser for us but Dunguib is a big price for me.
NW: Front of the betting is solid but of that group I'd just give Menorah the edge.
PN: It's a good renewal. Menorah and Peddlers Cross are the two I'd like and if Jason Maguire's ban is upheld I wouldn't be surprised if Ruby (Walsh) took the ride on Peddlers Cross.

Other Tuesday action...

ZB: David, Great Endeavour for the Andy Stewart sponsored race?
DP: He's crying out for the step up in trip over fences so we'll either run here or the Gold Cup.
ZB: Reve De Sivola for the same race Nick?
NW: Off a mark of 140 he should be competitive, the step up in trip will really help.
ZB: Anything else on day one for you Paul?
PN: Definity will run in the Centenary Novices' Chase. His current mark is very nice.



WEDNESDAY

ZB: Let's start with the Neptune...
PB: Oscar Wells has been impressive so far but favourites don't have a great record in this race (two wins in last 10 years).
AK: Minella class didn't look great when beaten at Huntingdon so now it's very open.
ZB: So Young?
PB: It's tricky because we don't know what might run in the Albert Bartlett. That said, Bobs Worth will be tough to beat in either race!
PN: Rock On Ruby ran well at Cheltenham last time and on better ground I think we can bridge the 2 length gap with Bobs Worth. The form of that race is solid and we have a great chance.



ZB: Time For Rupert sets a solid standard in the RSA?
NW: He's a strong contender but, like Cue Card, he hasn't run for a while which could be a problem. Aiteen Thirtythree's price is wrong compared to the likes of Wymott and Wayward Prince, he should be shorter.
PN: Aiteen Thirtythree is rated 159 which is only 2lbs behind Time For Rupert so the handicapper has them close. I've always thought he was a good horse, ever since his Point-to-Point days and he's done nothing wrong so far. Time For Rupert is the one to beat.
AK: I'd love to see Wishfull Thinking here as for me he as a massive e/w chance. Jessies Dream has a very good chance.
PB: Jessies Dream has a massive chance, along with Master Of The Hall who did it nicely in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last weekend.



ZB: On to the Champion Chase, how is Master Minded Paul?
PN: I don't think we'll ever repeat his performance from 3 years ago. He's had a nice break since Ascot and looked really well at evening stables tonight. I think everyone has us to beat. Woolcombe Folly, on good ground, will go very well. His progress this year has amazed me.
PB: Somersby should run in the Ryanair but Master Minded will be tough to beat.

[sammymaguire]

cheers for those maddog, always an interesting insight to see what the Previews throw up.

Anyone doing a Cheltenham tips comp this year?

[bcarrier]

http://www.drf.com/blogs/what-worlds-greatest-race

[Joxer]

See a good bit of money coming for So Young in the Neptune.  Into 4/1 2nd Fav with most bookmakers.

[Mickey Linden]

Donnelly has been very quiet recently. Interested to hear ur Cheltenham thoughts man. Hows the ante post coupons looking?

[Groucho]

For latest betting odds and updates


http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/

[Donnellys Hollow]

Time to nail the colours to the mast so:

Tuesday

The Supreme doesn't look the greatest renewal. Bar Day Of A Lifetime I wouldn't give the Irish horses a prayer. I was sweet on Dunguib last year but he didn't have the gears to win this and I think Cue Card might suffer the same fate - his dam ran in the English National! I backed Spirit Son e/w after he won at Exeter and I hope to get a good run for my money.

Can't be confident about anything in the Arkle. I put up Finians Rainbow on here earlier in the Autumn but I wasn't impressed the last day at Warwick and I'm not convinced he'll find a great deal off the bridle. Medermit is a joke of a price. He refused at Huntingdon and some of his hurdles form flatters him. I find it hard to believe that Realt Dubh will be good enough. He's a likeable sort but surely he's not an Arkle winner. I'm tempted to take a chance on Blazing Tempo e/w in the hope that she runs. If Walsh rides (every chance with Timmy Murphy on Ghizao), she'll tumble in price.

Champion Hurdle is really a race to savour. I've fancied Hurricane Fly for this (for years!) and I've been backing him e/w for the last few weeks. I think his price is insulting and I hope he really makes the English hacks eat their words next Tuesday. The arguments they're putting up against him are flawed IMO. They say you can't back him because he's never ran at Cheltenham - in that case you'd never back a novice or bumper horse at the track, who is to say he won't relish the track? They also say he only beats Solwhit - this is nonsense, he doesn't beat Solwhit, he laughs at him and it's not as if Solwhit is some selling plater. Binocular is high class on his day but he is frustratingly inconsistent. He ran like a drain at Sandown and Rue The Noise who is a very moderate mare looked to have him in trouble at one stage. I think Hurricane Fly will find him out. Menorah is likeable but I don't think his form stacks up as good as they are saying - he only beat two novices in the Bula. Peddlers Cross surely won't be quick enough and should be running (and winning) this year's Arkle.

Quevega is my banker of the meeting. Voler La Vedette is the second best mare in training and Murphy isn't even bothering sending her over. Apparently she burned up the Old Vic gallop at the Curragh last week and is bouncing at home. Should be some craic in Clane on Tuesday if she makes it three in a row.

Wednesday

The Neptune looks like one for the Irish raiders. Geraghty thinks Bobs Worth should be going for the three miler so I suspect he might find a few of our horses too sharp for him. So Young could be anything but he has beaten rubbish horses over here and is way too short on all known form. He may well be an aeroplane and win easily but I couldn't back him. Oscars Well was very impressive in the Deloitte but I suspect he may need soft ground. I've been banging on about First Lieutenant for over a year and he is a cracking e/w bet in this. He's the forgotten horse but he'll improve for the better ground and Mouse will have him tuned to the minute for this.

Time For Rupert looks very beatable in the RSA. His hurdles form isn't as good as it is being made out to be and to my eyes, he wasn't overly impressive in his two chase starts. What beats him? Jessies Dream will improve for the ground but I'd worry about him going left handed. Magnanimity and Bostons Angel would both need the heavens to open. Mikael D'Haguenet (should be running in the Arkle IMO) doesn't look the horse he was two years ago and the Mullins camp are favouring Quel Esprit who I respect. I like a horse called The Giant Bolster at a big price. He was only beaten 7L in the Neptune last year when 200/1 and he fell at the top of the hill when well in contention in the race that Time For Rupert won in November. He's since won a handicap under top weight at the track and he might plod on into a place here.

I don't have a strong opinion on the Champion Chase. I don't like Master Minded and I don't buy into the excuses that were offered for his near defeat at Ascot. Big Zeb should be favourite but he's not a young horse himself and he's certainly no Moscow Flyer. His price at the moment is probably about right. Somersby should be in the Ryanair and Woolcome Folly ran shite in the Arkle last year. If there was a decent bit of cut I'd have an e/w nibble on Golden Silver but I might give Captain Cee Bee another chance. He possesses so much raw ability and if McCoy can get him into a rhythm early on, he could go close.

Get the darts out for the bumper - my advice if you do have a bet is to trust your instincts and don't buy into the inevitable hype about any horse.

Thursday

Don't have a strong opinion on the Ryanair. I fancied Riverside Theatre before he was pulled out and I think Somersby or even Sizing Europe would win this if they weren't in the Champion. Rubi Light might run a decent race if there was an ease in the ground.

Big Bucks will be all the rage in the Stayers and it is hard to knock him but he is a similar price to Quevega and I've no doubt as to who is the safer bet. Grand Cru could be anything and it is hard to judge Big Bucks considering this division is so weak. I can't have Mourad at all - he is a soft horse who finds little off the bit and probably needs cut in the ground. Fiveforthree is a nice e/w price and will probably be my bet in the race.

Loosen My Load has a very good chance in the Jewson. Fingers crossed that Blazing Tempo goes for the Arkle instead.

Friday

I have backed Unaccompanied (mainly because of the Moyglare connection) antepost but the Triumph looks a complete lottery as usual. DK has said she needs soft ground but it was far from soft when she won on the flat down in Killarney. She is a fine big mare and she jumped super at Leopardstown. She also gets an extra 2lbs allowance in England. I don't know what to make of the English horses - I'd respect Henderson. Zarandkar is the horse for money but I thought he looked very small at Kempton and I'm not sure he'll stay. Sam Winner on the other hand looks like he might lack a gear.

You can find fault with everything in the Gold Cup. Kauto Star and Denman are in decline and are both priced on past achievements rather than form. I like Imperial Commander but the vibes have not been positive recently and he's no spring chicken himself. Long Run clearly has an engine but I don't rate the jock and I can see him being roughed up Carvills Hill style. Kempes has done nothing wrong in the past twelve months but I can't have an Intikhab gelding out of a Royal Academy mare winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup. I always thought Pandorama would make a Gold Cup horse one day but he is ground dependent. He worked brilliantly at Leopardstown last week but if it's quick ground come next Friday, I'll be sitting this race out.

On The Fringe is a great e/w bet in the Foxhunters.

I'll post up my thoughts on the handicaps when the ground and running-plans become clearer. It should be a great 4 days.

[Lecale2]

Ive followed you all the way down the line DH with the ante post. Here's hoping for a good week.

Ruby has a couple of good rides at Sandown today. He's due a winner. Maybe worth a look.

[boojangles]

Great stuff Donnelly. Would love to see Hurricane Fly do the business. Would definitely rub a few peoples noses in it.

David Pipe seemed quite keen on Dynaste Sandown 1.55. Has a big weight to carry though.

[SHEEDY]

sand 1.55 cucumber run. sand 3.00 arrayan. hopefully 2 winners to help the funds for cheltenham

[armagho9]

sand 1.55 cucumber run. sand 3.00 arrayan. hopefully 2 winners to help the funds for cheltenham

hope you're right, i have both in a lucky 31 along with Duff (berrys only mount at wolverhampton), Crackerjacklad at Ayr and Somatic at Limerick

[Big Puff]

Putting all my cheltenham eggs in cue cards basket.

important to get off to a good start!

[winsamsoon]

Dasho going in one minute at 2:45 13/2