The Horse racing thread

[118cmal]

What odds are those two bamboo?  Can't access betting sites here.

Should be a great day out for ye tomorrow.

[Hardy]

Binocular 2/1, 3.18 Betfair.
Kauto Star 4/6, 1.66 Betfair.

[118cmal]

Cheers Hardy.  4/1 the double.  I'll probably have a dabble at that myself.

Hate to be a pain here, but any chance you could somehow post the cards up?  Haven't had a chance to look at the opposition yet.

Cheers, mal.

[the greatest jockey]

after last year i dont think binocular can ever be truested outside of teh champion hurdle

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Starluck beat Binocular home on their last outing and in this race last year and so surely represents better value.

[Hardy]

Saturday January 15  2011
Kempton Park 14:25
williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
£75000.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m, Class 1, £42758.00 penalty
6 runners
Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places
Race Preview » Click for Champion Hurdle odds

1      3/5311-3   Binocular (FR) 49       7    11-7   N J Henderson   A P McCoy    171 
2      2404-92   Bocamix (FR) 56     5    11-7   A Crook   F Davis    130     
3      5B16-1   Escort'men (FR) 98     5    11-7   P F Nicholls   S Thomas    149
4      0/51121-   Khyber Kim 280     9    11-7   N A Twiston-Davies   P J Brennan    167 
5      2111-21   Overturn (IRE) 150     7    11-7   D McCain Jnr   J M Maguire    159     
6      3/1225-2   Starluck (IRE) 49     6    11-7   A Fleming   T J Murphy    160     

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Binocular, 5/2 Starluck, 3/1 Khyber Kim, 6/1 Overturn, 8/1 Escort'men, 200/1 Bocamix

VERDICT
Binocular's main target again this year is the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham so there's just a chance that he may not be fully wound-up for this. In any case, he finished behind Starluck in this last season and again on his reappearance behind Peddlers Cross at Newbury. Alan Fleming's six-year-old deserves to win a decent prize and should be able to pick off the front-running Overturn up the straight here but may be found wanting if it comes to a battle with KHYBER KIM. Second to Binocular in last year's Champion Hurdle, the nine-year-old is a classy performer who goes well fresh and will handle conditions better than most. Escort'men was an impressive winner on his reappearance under a big weight at Chepstow but it would be a surprise if he was good enough to follow up in this company.

FORMWATCH
Binocular (FR) 5-6fav (11-7) Held up in 4th, headway on inside to 3rd before 2 out, chased winner between last 2 and every chance last, lost 2nd and weakened flat, 3rd of 5, 7l behind Peddlers Cross (11-7) at Newbury 2m hdl G1 (1) gs in Nov.
Bocamix (FR) 66-1 (10-12) Held up in 4th, headway to track leading pair 4 out, ridden 2 out, stayed on under pressure to chase winner flat, always held, 2nd of 5, 2l behind Carlito Brigante (11-6) at Haydock 2m 4yo hdl (2) gs in Nov.
Escort'men (FR) 5-1 (11-10) Held up in rear, steady headway 4 out, soon tracking leaders, went 2nd 2 out, led before and 2 lengths ahead when blundered last, soon driven and just held on in driving finish, won at Chepstow 2m Limited hcp hdl (2) gs in Oct beating Olofi (10-8) by ns, 8 ran.
Khyber Kim 7-2 (11-7) In rear, headway approaching 3 out, left in lead 2 out, drew clear from last, won at Aintree 2m 4f hdl G1 (1) gd in Apr beating Muirhead (11-7) by 5l, 7 ran.
Overturn (IRE) 6-1 (11-6) Soon led, ridden to assert entering straight, kept on strongly, comfortably, won at Galway 2m hcp hdl gf in Jul beating Bahrain Storm (11-8) by 6l, 19 ran.
Starluck (IRE) 7-1 (11-7) Held up last, good headway to chase leaders and went left 2 out, driven to chase winner flat and stayed on but always held, 2nd of 5, 1 1/4l behind Peddlers Cross (11-7) at Newbury 2m hdl G1 (1) gs in Nov.



Saturday January 15 2011
Kempton[/]Park[/] 15:00
William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
£180000.00 added, 5yo plus, 3m, Class 1, £102618.00 penalty
9 runners
  Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places


1              6211-4F      Alberta's Run (IRE)(IRE) 56  10     11-10                    168           
2              22222-2      Forpadydeplasterer (IE) 62  9      11-10                167           
3              11/11F-1     Kauto Star (IRE) 70       11     11-10 t                      190           
4              11113-3      Long Run (FR)63        6      11-10                  162           
5              244F-2F      Madison Du Berlais (FR) 49   10     11-10 p              157           
6              P423-14      Nacarat (FR) 56   10     11-10                 158           
7              12F01-3      Planet Of Sound 56      9      11-10 t                 163   
8              3115F-1      Riverside Theatre 75    7      11-10                160           
9              64/113-1     The Nightingale (FR) 70       8      11-10                     167         
   
Betting Forecast: 4/6 Kauto Star, 6/1 Long Run, 8/1 The Nightingale, 10/1 Nacarat, 14/1 Forpadydeplasterer, 16/1 Planet of Sound, 16/1 Riverside Theatre, 33/1 Albertas Run, 33/1 Madison Du Berlais

VERDICT There are no prizes for originality in putting KAUTO STAR forward for this. Paul Nicholls' 11-year-old may be worth opposing at Cheltenham in two months time but this is his arena and he will be a short price to gain a fifth successive triumph in this Grade 1 contest having put Madison Du erlais, Nacarat and Albertas Run firmly in their place last season. The betting suggests Long Run will be his main rival and the six-year-old certainly has more scope than his rivals here. He wasn't disgraced when third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his reappearance and is certain to see out this trip, unlike stablemate Riverside Theatre or Planet Of Sound. Ante-post gamble The Nightingale may also have stamina limitations and Forpadydeplasterer has never raced over 3m before, though Thomas Cooper's 2010 Champion Chase runner-up is a high-class performer who has Grade 1 form over 2m5f on soft ground and a relaxed style of racing which suggests he's a viable each-way alternative to the favourite.

FORMWATCH
Albertas Run (IRE) 9-4 (11-11) Tracked leader 2nd, narrow lead from 5th, pressed by winner from 11th, mistake 4 out, joined and pushed along when fell heavily 3 out, in a race won by Master Minded (11-11) at Ascot 2m 3f Grade 2 chs (4yo+) (1) gs in Nov, 6 ran.
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) 11-8fav (11-0) Raced wide, held up in 6th, headway to chase leaders 6th, went 2nd before upsides and every chance when hit 3 out, led 2 out, headed and not pace of winner flat, 2nd of 7, 4l behind Gauvain (11-0) at Cheltenham 2m chs (2) gs in Nov.
Kauto Star (FR) 4-7fav (11-10) Tracked leader in 2nd, close up 5 out, pushed along in 2nd approaching 3 out, led 3 out, ridden before next, kept on strongly from last, won at Down Royal 3m chs G1 (1) sft in Nov beating Sizing Europe (11-10) by 4l, 7 ran.
Long Run (FR) 2-1fav (11-1) In touch, not fluent 7th, driven to challenge when mistake 2 out, stayed on same pace, 3rd of 18, 5l behind Little Josh (10-5) at Cheltenham 2m 4f Grade 3 hcp chs (4yo+) (1) gs in Nov.
Madison Du Berlais (FR) 16-1 (10-1) Took keen hold, in touch when fell 4th, in a race won by Diamond Harry (10-0) at Newbury 3m 2f hcp chs Grd 3 (1) gs in Nov, 18 ran.
Nacarat (FR) 7-1 (11-7) Disputed 2nd, led narrowly 10th, headed 12th, chased winner, outpaced 3 out, soon no impression, lost 2nd last, no extra, 4th of 7, 12l behind Imperial Commander (11-7) at Haydock 3m chs G1 (1) gs in Nov.
Planet of Sound 17-2 (11-7) Held up in touch, tracked leading pair 5 out, driven and outpaced after next, kept on under pressure from 3 out, no impression, 3rd of 7, 9l behind Imperial Commander (11-7) at Haydock 3m chs G1 (1) gs in Nov.
Riverside Theatre 6-4fav (11-9) Tracked leading pair, headway 4 out, led before next, drew readily clear from next, very easily, won at Kempton 2m 4f grad ch (2) gd in Nov beating Free World (11-6) by 9l, 6 ran.
The Nightingale (FR) 3-1 (11-10) Tracked leaders, travelled well to challenge 3 out, led before next, ridden and kept on strongly from before last, won at Down Royal 2m 4f chs G2 (1) sft in Nov beating Roberto Goldback (11-10) by 11l, 7 ran.

[beer baron]

Starluck beat Binocular home on their last outing and in this race last year and so surely represents better value.

The way Timmy Murphy's riding at the minute i wouldn't back him if he was on the incarnation of Pegasus!
Guaranteed he'll give a majestic ride to win after me saying that!

[Joxer]

BJ Geraghty had a nice treble today in Huntingdon.

Give Binocular and Kauto by whatever winning distance PP are giving tomorrow a wee double for a bit of interest.

[Donnellys Hollow]

You couldn't trust that Binocular at all. One minute Frank Berry is saying he's catching pigeons on the gallops at Lambourn and the next Henderson is worried about the ground and his fitness etc. Strange animal.

Kauto Star will probably win by default such is the weakness of the opposition. Why they didn't reopen the entries I don't know. He's not for me odds on but he's miles clear on ORs. Part of me would like to see him beaten so we're not subjected to another nauseating Nicholls/C4/RP love in - the amount of nonsense spouted about Denman pre and post Hennessy would drive people up the wall. Being greedy I'd hate to see him eclipse the great Desert Orchid.

Think I'll stick with the Naas card tomorrow. The Gigginstown horse in the first should be a decent e/w bet.

[118cmal]

You couldn't trust that Binocular at all. One minute Frank Berry is saying he's catching pigeons on the gallops at Lambourn and the next Henderson is worried about the ground and his fitness etc. Strange animal.

Kauto Star will probably win by default such is the weakness of the opposition. Why they didn't reopen the entries I don't know. He's not for me odds on but he's miles clear on ORs. Part of me would like to see him beaten so we're not subjected to another nauseating Nicholls/C4/RP love in - the amount of nonsense spouted about Denman pre and post Hennessy would drive people up the wall. Being greedy I'd hate to see him eclipse the great Desert Orchid.

Think I'll stick with the Naas card tomorrow. The Gigginstown horse in the first should be a decent e/w bet.

Which one is it DH?

Can't seem to see it 

[Donnellys Hollow]

You couldn't trust that Binocular at all. One minute Frank Berry is saying he's catching pigeons on the gallops at Lambourn and the next Henderson is worried about the ground and his fitness etc. Strange animal.

Kauto Star will probably win by default such is the weakness of the opposition. Why they didn't reopen the entries I don't know. He's not for me odds on but he's miles clear on ORs. Part of me would like to see him beaten so we're not subjected to another nauseating Nicholls/C4/RP love in - the amount of nonsense spouted about Denman pre and post Hennessy would drive people up the wall. Being greedy I'd hate to see him eclipse the great Desert Orchid.

Think I'll stick with the Naas card tomorrow. The Gigginstown horse in the first should be a decent e/w bet.

Which one is it DH?

Can't seem to see it 

The name escapes me at the moment but he'a a big Milan gelding. Mike Hourigan trains it and I presume Russell will be up. He bolted up in a p2p at Dromohane and won a decent Fairyhouse bumper last year. He had a nice pipe opener at Fairyhouse on New Years Day and should strip a lot fitter here.

Edit - horse is called Crash. It's a hot little maiden hurdle especially for this time of year but he's the sort of horse that Gigginstown excel with.

[bamboo]

Cheers lads and DH, think i may keep my money in my pocket for Binocular now.

I'll take your advice on Crash and see how i get on, you've seldom let us down before. As a non-to-regular poster but longtime reader i always give you're posts careful consideration- most of my big race winnings are down to you if im honest.

[boojangles]

Think Kyber Kim looks a great bet 2mrw. Can't have Binocular on soft ground.

[bcarrier]

I'll be at Kempton myself tomorrow. Kauto should win but wont be carrying my money ..will check Mccoy in telegraph in morning ...in the meantime Barry G on his rides

www.attheraces.com/barry

Im very hopeful that A MEDIA LUZ has turned the corner having settled so well at Newbury when she was second to Grandouet. She should handle soft ok on her French form I'll be looking from the unraced brigade of Nicholls and Pipe to provide the dangers.

If I had to sort out my best ride of the day it would be NAYIDA DE LA VEGA in the two-mile novices' chase.

I'm well aware that she's in with some 140-rated performers but she's getting 11lb from them and couldn't have been more impressive when she won on her chase debut at Warwick — a track that really takes some jumping for experienced chasers let alone a novice.

She handles soft ground very well and I'd be very keen on her chance.

I don't know a great deal about CHABLAIS in the two mile five novice hurdle apart from the fact that he was well fancied for his debut at Bangor which was called off last week. This is harder but I doubt Nicky would be sending him if he didn't expect a very bold show. The danger might well be The Reformer of Paul Nicholls.

I reckon that SKINT will leave his Plumpton second behind in the two-mile handicap hurdle. He was a bit disappointing when he was beaten by Jetnova last month but it was a time when a few of the horses weren't quite firing and I think he was one of them. The drop back to two miles won't hurt either because he's versatile.

POLYFAST has top-weight in the two and a half mile handicap chase and don't be put off because he's having his first run since July because he's pretty good fresh. I'd be a bit more concerned if the ground was very soft but he does like Kempton and he'd be a contender.

FIRST POINT is definitely going to be suited by the step up to two miles five in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle. It didn't really happen for him over fences but he showed what he's capable of on softish ground when he was sixth in the Totesport Trophy at Newbury last February and he's 3lb lower now. To me he's always ridden like a horse that would be better over further.

One that I'll be keeping an eye on is Barwell Bridge who was second to me on Spirit River over three at Cheltenham last time and will appreciate the drop. And Drill Sergeant looks nicely treated, bang on 10st.

I've only got one ride at Fairyhouse on Sunday, OUR GIRL SATURDAY, and I will be very disappointed if I don't make the short trip back to my home for Sunday lunch without a win. She's pretty talented.

[Don Johnson]

Hard to know where they'll go with Sizing Europe. Not a lot of options for him between now and March and I'm not certain the Hennessy would suit him. My guess is they'll go for the Kinloch Brae over two and a half at Thurles or the Red Mills Trial at Gowran and then on to the Gold Cup. I've never been a massive fan of the animal but he probably has a better chance in this Gold Cup than he does taking on Big Zeb & Master Minded. He does fit the trends - second season chaser unexposed at the trip.

Nothing really jumps off the page looking at the entries. Pride Of Dulcote and China Rock make most appeal to me at the moment unless Pandorama was to get his ground.

Are you Tom Segal?