The Horse racing thread

[A Quinn Martin Production]

I like the look of "Chief Dan George", it's a tasty 25/1 is only carrying 10.2 and has a bit of form about it. What do you proper Horsie men think of it's chances for Sat

illdecide, Chief Dan George NOT declared (nor in the reserves)

[illdecide]

I like the look of "Chief Dan George", it's a tasty 25/1 is only carrying 10.2 and has a bit of form about it. What do you proper Horsie men think of it's chances for Sat

illdecide, Chief Dan George NOT declared (nor in the reserves)

Goes to show ya what i know about horses...lol i just seen it on that link at the top of the page and liked the look of it...better pick another then

[A Quinn Martin Production]

I like the look of "Chief Dan George", it's a tasty 25/1 is only carrying 10.2 and has a bit of form about it. What do you proper Horsie men think of it's chances for Sat

illdecide, Chief Dan George NOT declared (nor in the reserves)

Goes to show ya what i know about horses...lol i just seen it on that link at the top of the page and liked the look of it...better pick another then

Well I suppose he was in it until about 10:00 this morning!

[Hardy]

Thanks Maddog. I thought that would sort the whole thing out, but it doesn't include some of the stats. It did sort out the main categories, though – very useful.

As bcarrier mentioned above, these statistics are now so well known that the main qualifiers may well be over-bet. Also, last year blew a hole in a couple of the major stats:
- weight under 11st. (though bcarrier pointed out last year that that statistic should probably be modified to specify a margin of no more than 11 lb over the bottom weight on the day. In any case, this year, 11st covers that)
- horses previously unplaced in the National don't come back and win it.

However, the purpose of statistics is to indicate trends and probabilities and one event doesn't invalidate the overall stats.

So to look at the stats. Applying the criteria about age and weight immediately reduces the field to 15 qualifiers:
- Big Fella Thanks
- Snowy Morning
- The Package
- Character Building
- Arbor Supreme
- Cant Buy Time
- State Of Play
- Irish Raptor
- Hello Bud
- Erics Charm
- Ballyfitz
- Ollie Magern
- Abbeybraney
- Ellerslie George
- Mr Pointment

Applying further selection criteria about experience, performance in Class 1 races, previous National form, performance in big fields, etc. reduces the field (unusually) to only four horses that tick every box - Can't Buy Time, State Of Play, Hello Bud and Ellerslie George.

Of the other 11, three fall out only on having finished unplaced previously in the race. If you want to ignore that statistic (I wouldn't based on one event), that brings Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks and Mr Pointment into the frame. I would make a case for Big Fella Thanks on the basis that State Of Play gets in having been fourth last year and BFT was only 4 lengths behind him in sixth, so it seems harsh to exclude him and there's only a 2 lb turnaround in weight difference this time. I'm adding him to the other four giving a short list of
- Big Fella Thanks 10/1
- Can't Buy Time  25/1
- State Of Play  20/1
- Hello Bud  40/1
- Ellerslie George  100/1

I'm using my usual scattergun approach and backing all five e.w.. Ellerslie George doesn't seem to have a realistic chance, despite the stats and two 100/1 winners in a row would be unprecedented, but he does qualify on the stats, so I'd kick myself down to the river if he made the frame and I wasn't on.

I also have a standing ante-post place only bet on Comply Or Die on the basis I don't think he can win, but he has every chance of a place based on proven form in this race and carrying a pound less than last year's runner-up performance.

After last year's performance of the stats selections, you may feel inclined to treat this as a list of horses not to back. Either way, good luck.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Notus de a tour worth small each way punt in 2.35 at aintree.Anyone hear the horse ted walsh mentioned on rte the other day-think he said it avoided cheltenham to run today...

Shark Hanlon's horse Western Leader. Runs in the novice hurdle tomorrow.

[Lecale2]

I can see a treble for Ruby in the first 3 today.

[GAA_Punter]

Hopefully Cheltenham will feel like a distant memory when Aintree kicks off with its three day Grand National meeting. Top class racing for the duration of the meeting is guaranteed with many Cheltenham winners returning for one more bite of the cherry. Many horses running after the Cheltenham festival haven't got great records at Aintree but some do win again, hopefully we can find the right ones.

14:00 – Aintree
Big Bucks should take all the beating once more but you didn't need me to tell you that. At 1-3 he represents no value at all and the value should be found else where. After Big Bucks, Tidal Bay is the clear pick on ratings but his attitude has a bit to be desired. On a positive note Brian Hughes is back in the plate. Hughes gets on extremely well with the horse and hopefully can guide the Howard Johnson raider into a place, on a course he likes. 8 runners remain in the field and an each-way selection is Bouggler. Unlike some of today's rivals, he has been kept fresh. Emma Lavelle's son of Tobougg is still a five year old so he should still be improving. Big Bucks for the win and Bouggler as an each-way alternative.
1st: Big Bucks
2nd: Tidal Bay
3rd: Bouggler

14:35 – Aintree
These four year old races are never easy to win as these young jumpers can often go off the boil unexpected. Hopefully Sanctuaire is still bouncing after Cheltenham and if this is the case, he should take the world of beating. Many felt he put up a Champion Hurdle type display at the festival when taking the Fred Winter. He looks to be a very progressive animal and with only two runs under his belt this year, the horse should still be fresh. Barizan will have plenty of supporters but Evan Williams' horse has had along and tough season. I just feel they may have went to the well once too many and for that reason I'm going to oppose him. There won't be much between Nafaath and Me Voici on a form line through Saveiro and I fancy both to run big races. I'd have to side with the Howard Johnson givin the stables still in good heart and he's a much bigger price. Nafaath is an each-way selection.
1st: Sanctuaire
2nd: Naafaath
3rd: Me Voici

15:10 – Aintree
The big race of the day looks to be at the mercy of Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander. He put up a staggering performance to easily beat Denman and at 10-11 even looks a bit of value. He is 23 pounds clear of his nearest rival (Nacarat) and even an under par display here could see him take the prize. Many doubt the Twiston Davies horse but at near enough even money he has to be backed. If you don't fancy backing such a short prize, What A Friend should give the selection most to think about.
1st: Imperial Commander
2nd: What A Friend

15:45 – Aintree
The Fox Hunters Chase is sure to be the biggest spectacle of the day as the amateur riders take to the daunting Grand National fences. History suggests that the winner usually comes from the top five/six rated horses so it's best to stick to the top of the market. Baby Run is an obvious candidate but had one of the hardest races of all at Cheltenham. He is the best horse in the race but you have to wonder how much that festival rest took out of him. Blu Teen is very interesting and on the form book has the beating of Baby Run. He like the above horse gave Here's Jonny a good beating and the softer under foot conditions will suit. Others that stick out in this very trappy race are Carrick Oscar and Reachforthetop. Baby Run is too short at 3-1 for such an event so I'd advise each-way beats on any of the above three, which ever you fancy but slight preference is for Blu Teen.
1st: Baby Run
2nd: Blu Teen
3rd: Carrick Oscar
4th: Reachforthetop

Rest of preview on
http://www.sportsnewsireland.com/2010/04/08/aintree-betting-preview-thursday-8th-april-2010/

[Hardy]

OK - here we go. Laying Big Bucks here.

[sammymaguire]

OK - here we go. Laying Big Bucks here.

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maybe we will find winners easier to come by at Aintree 

live racing - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7833395.stm

[Donnellys Hollow]

My e/w on Possol sunk by the two NRs. FFS! 

He's a quare horse that Big Bucks. I'd say he touches strange prices in-running.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Tommy Stack hasn't lost his Kerry brogue anyway!

[Hardy]

maybe we will find winners easier to come by at Aintree 

I've a bad feeling already - I can see favourites and Cheltenham winners coming in be the new time and me laying them.

Always great entertainment watching Big Buck, though.

[Hardy]

OK - undeterred. The strategy is to look for lightly raced horses coming to Aintree unexposed with form in their last couple of starts. These often throw up a long-odds winner here.

So - don't laugh - I'm going e.w. Al Qeddaaf here. 140 and 24 for the place on Betfair.

Backup on Super Kenny.

[Hardy]

Well - he was exposed there!

[Donnellys Hollow]

Very messy race. Wouldn't read too much into that form.