The Horse racing thread

[Doogie Browser]

Question for you racing heads - how crooked is the sport ?

As straight as Elton John.

[sammymaguire]

Question for you racing heads - how crooked is the sport ?

As straight as Elton John.

or Gok Wan  horse racing straight ?? 

[man in black]

Question for you racing heads - how crooked is the sport ?

As straight as Elton John.

or Gok Wan  horse racing straight ?? 

Who's she ?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Question for you racing heads - how crooked is the sport ?

Horse Racing has cleaned itself up significantly over the past decade. Traditional bookmakers were up in arms that the advent of the betting exchanges and the laying of horses would encourage skulduggery but given the merciless way that Betfair is policed, it makes pulling strokes very difficult these days. Any abnormal laying patterns on a horse are flagged up on the system.

Handicap races are a necessary evil in racing and IMO, they encourage trainers not to run horses on their merits. Why would a trainer consistently have a horse running at 100% if it is likely to keep his handicap rating high. If a horse has gone up 10lbs+ in the ratings, the trainer is likely to give the horse a few runs over unsuitable distances, tracks or ground in order for the horse to drop back down to a winnable mark. Its because of this that I try to avoid punting in handicaps for the most part. I try to limit my betting to conditions races where the majority of horses will be running on their merits.

The best betting opportunities in racing will be coming up over the next two to three months as far as I'm concerned, with the National Hunt season proper starting up. Top novice hurdlers running in begginers chases offer tremendous value in my experience. Most will be going off around the even money mark which is terrific value considering that most of these horses will be over a stone superior to the rest of their opposition. You are simply taking around even money on the horse putting in a clear round of jumping. The likes of Mikael D'Haguenet, Cousin Vinny, Pandorama, Jered, Venalmar, China Rock, Black Harry, Medermit, Bensalem, Weapons Amnesty, Copper Bleu, Sommersby and Mad Max will all be making their chasing debuts in the next month or two. I had my biggest bet in a long time on Kangaroo Court at Uttoxeter on Sunday on his chasing debut to get the ball rolling.

[sammymaguire]

good write up DH and your highlighted horses are all excellently bred and trained horses (even the Nicky Henderson ones) although the skill of picking them out on the right day is the litmus test that we all aspire to getting right

[Donnellys Hollow]

I think all of the ones mentioned are going chasing and I don't think many of them will be beaten in their begginers Sammy. You could even throw in a few more like Osana (with Edward O'Grady now) and Diamond Harry.

Last year Forpadydeplasterer won his beginners chase with an SP of 9/10, Cooldine at 6/4, Made In Taipan 2/1, Aran Concerto Evs, Trafford Lad 9/10, Siegemaster 6/4. All these horses were running against moderate horses that they would have murdered over hurdles. Suddenly there's ten fences put in front of them for the first time and they are made backable prices. A clear round of jumping and you should collect.

[sammymaguire]

I'LL BE LUMPING MY £2.50 E/W ON IRON STEVE STRATFORD 5.10 currently 13/2

although it was not going to win against the favourite - bad ride by the jockey running so wide cost the e/w money 

[Donnellys Hollow]

Paddy Brennan always seems to have a habit of riding four or five deep off the rail. It works in hurdles and chases because the horse gets a clearer sight of his obstacles but I can't see the point of doing it in a bumper especially when the horse is being ridden handy.

[space rabbit]

Donnellys Hollow will you post some of your fancies when they run here. You seem to have good knowledge.

[sammymaguire]

Donnellys Hollow will you post some of your fancies when they run here. You seem to have good knowledge.

ditto don't be shy

[Donnellys Hollow]

I would never really have more than five or six bets on a normal week. I've been easing off on my bets on the flat over the past week or two. Now that we're into the Autumn, the ground will be deteriorating and horses will be going over the top and their form will begin to taper off - would be wary enough of taking any odds-on about Sea The Stars from now on for example.

Once the jumps gets going properly (Punchestown's two day meet next month!) I'll be getting stuck into a few novice chasers and hurdlers. Have a few 2yos picked out for Ascot and the Curragh over the weekend. Will post up any fancies I have after the decs are made. Don't expect Tom Segal priced winners though!

[sammymaguire]

Secret Witness @ Kempton tonight expected to go well and 3/1 avalable now is a decent price

[sammymaguire]

Secret Witness @ Kempton tonight expected to go well and 3/1 avalable now is a decent price

shite

[sammymaguire]

Battle Group @ 5.20 Perth can be backed at 2/1

[illdecide]

Battle Group @ 5.20 Perth can be backed at 2/1

4th saan