The Horse racing thread

[Donnellys Hollow]

I don't bet in-running anymore myself so I have a fairly open mind on the whole thing, but why was the market not suspended midway through the race when it was clear that something was up. The mare was settled comfortably off a fairly sedate gallop, she was jumping well and nothing had appeared to have gone wrong - saddle slipping, weight cloth falling off etc. Why didn't Betfair suspend the market like they have done in-running on numerous races before? Surely there is someone monitoring these markets to ensure that situations like this one do not arise.

[Sea The Stars]

What about those who layed Mourad pre-race and backed him after a mile to lock in profit? Back bet void, lay bet stands. Several other scenarios like this where punters have unfairly lost their money. Even those who backed Voler La Vedette after 4 furlongs at reasonable odds only get their stake back.

But it's the punters with automated systems backing and laying hundreds of times a second who've lost big time. VLV was 12/1 on the run-in on Betdaq. So picture this, someone's automated system sees 12/1 on Betdaq and 28/1 on Betfair. Who does it do? Lay, lay, lay the 12/1 and back, back back the 28/1. Only problem is the back bets are void, and the lay bets stand.

What yesterday's glitch has shown is just how much control computer software has on the in-running markets. Mourad was 1.03 and 1.04 once the 28/1 appeared - because of all the software controlling the market.

[Sea The Stars]

I don't bet in-running anymore myself so I have a fairly open mind on the whole thing, but why was the market not suspended midway through the race when it was clear that something was up. The mare was settled comfortably off a fairly sedate gallop, she was jumping well and nothing had appeared to have gone wrong - saddle slipping, weight cloth falling off etc. Why didn't Betfair suspend the market like they have done in-running on numerous races before? Surely there is someone monitoring these markets to ensure that situations like this one do not arise.

I can only presume those monitoring the market genuinely thought the lay was real.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Ted is palpitating watching that ride from Paul Townend!

Great piece of training from DK. Thousand Stars definitely looks like he needs further.

[Mayo4Sam]

In fairness it was a great ride, Ruby had to come out and round. Glad I had Unaccompanied backed

[the greatest jockey]

mikael dhaguenet and fingal bay double, both around 1/2 and cue card 3/1 will be bets tomorrow. hope mikael can get his form back up to the high level over hurdles he looked capable of

[the greatest jockey]

tranquil sea at tramore 6/4 estimated price, ghizao 11/2 ew and oscar whisky 1/2 at cheltenham tomorrow. very weak opposition against oscar whisky in the 2m4f hurdle

[ardchieftain]

3 out of 3 greatest jockey, nice picking - alas, i opted to take cue card on.

[Donnellys Hollow]

How did Oscar Whiskey go off at 4/6? Stones in hand on the book.

[bridge fan]

sum price for hom  empire of dirt didnt run up to his price tag anyhow the word befor the race was he was slow enough and will need a trip sum money for the fav 7/2 in places this morning into 5/4

[the greatest jockey]

anything of interest antepost for cheltenham dh?

balinroab who won a decent p2p past april, clondaw warrior in third that day running his second race for jonjo o'neill tomorrow at southwell 3.10. should be a decent price although he looked far from an easy ride fto for jonjo in a bumper last time at haydock

[Donnellys Hollow]

anything of interest antepost for cheltenham dh?

I have nowt running antepost at the moment. Managed to get a few decent antepost results down the years but it looks to be getting harder and harder. New races (particularly the Ryanair and the ridiculous new novice chase) and the fact that so many of the class horses are concentrated with a handful of trainers/owners (Nicholls, Henderson, Mullins, Gigginstown) make it nigh on impossible these days.

Haven't been impressed with many novice hurdlers so far. I'm still waiting on Waaheb and Samain of last year's bumper crop to come out. I haven't taken to many of the flat recruits. I don't think either Steps To Freedom or Prospect Wells are hard enough for the Supreme Novices. At a big price I'd keep an eye on Distant Memories who won down at Limerick for Taaffe. Of the staying novices Fingal Bay has impressed but he looks a Gold Cup horse in the making and I'm not certain he has the boot for a Neptune or even the three miler on quickish ground. Boston Bob is the best of ours so far but Willie has so much depth that he could end up in either race. Make Your Mark and Sword Of Destiny both for O'Leary muddy the waters further.

If they both line up, Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus will be warm orders for the respective novice chases but I don't like playing at such short odds for an Arkle or a Sun Alliance given how brutal a race they can be for inexperienced horses. Sprinter Sacre didn't come up the hill at all last year and you can be certain Peddlers Cross will give him a much stiffer examination than he did at Kempton. Grand Crus may well go for an open looking Gold Cup instead. We have some very nice staying novices but the trouble is that they all run in O'Leary's silks. First Lieutenant has disappointed so far but he is a Cheltenham winner. Last Instalment has always had a massive reputation following his p2p bumper rout at Fairyhouse and Sir Des Champs is undefeated. They all shape like stayers but you could well see one, if not two, switching to the Powers Gold Cup or even the four miler (convinced myself long ago that Last Instalment would win that hard held with Robbie McNamara up!).

Champion Hurdle revolves around one horse. If he turns up he wins but trying to extract information from Closutton about his well-being appears to be as difficult as getting blood from a stone. Champion Chase is between Sizing Europe and Big Zeb at the moment. Preference would have to be for the defending champ. I'd be very interested in Flat Out's chances but am worried that he has yet to run this season. Big Bucks is a super horse but this year will be his toughest test yet. If he is ever to be beaten in a Stayers Hurdle then this will have to be the year with both Thousand Stars and Oscar Whiskey up in trip. Gold Cup is anyones guess. Wouldn't write off Kauto but wouldn't back him either. Long Run is probably the best horse out there but given the ineptitude of his partner, he should be twice his current odds. Quel Esprit is potentially interesting if his jumping has been ironed out. He was tanking along when he came down three out in the Sun Alliance last year and has always been thought of as a Gold Cup prospect. If he wins well at Thurles on Saturday I'd hope that they'll step him up for the Hennessy. Absolutely nothing to fear in that race if the Lexus is anything to go by.

[the greatest jockey]

have to agree with almost everything there, think steps to freedom is a fair bet though in the supreme, looks like supreme is definitely the target and might not run here again before the festival because of soft ground and in that case wont start 10/1.

really don't think big bucks is a 1/2 shot if oscar whiskey, thousand stars, and some of zaidpour, so young and mikael dhaguenet line up, willie showed last year he;s not scared of running multiple horses in that race.

the 13/8 about quevega with paddy power looks very tempting given voler and unaccompanied are very dubious runners

[Mickey Linden]

I se Huricane Fly had a run at Lepordstown today, however I also heard over Christmas that they were very concerned that he is out for the season.

Anyone else hear anything about this?

[Donnellys Hollow]

I se Huricane Fly had a run at Lepordstown today, however I also heard over Christmas that they were very concerned that he is out for the season.

Anyone else hear anything about this?

Must have worked well because he's shortening up on the machine. Interesting to hear who he worked with. There were rumours that there was one horse that was beating him on the gallops down in Closutton but I heard last year that So Young was working all over him before Cheltenham!!