China Coronavirus

[imtommygunn]

Yeah far too many experts and nothing but bad bad news. It is clearly horrendously bad but someone I know messaged our whatsapp group this morning to say he has now known 10 people with it who have been ok.

As I say it is clearly very very bad and getting worse but there are some positive stories too.

Part of me would believe what those oxford researchers say too.

[RadioGAAGAA]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0

Here it is by the way.

Their big assumption is that only 1% or 0.1% of population were at severe risk to the disease - and that only a subset of those would be admitted to hospital and a further subset of those would die.
[i.e. the ~1% mortality rate applies to that 1% or 0.1% of the population, excluding the other 99% or 99.9%]

We've seen healthy young die in China. We've seen healthy young on ventilators here. Plenty of young and healthy have died in Italy without underlying conditions. Even more have been admitted to hospital. The evidence does not support the basis of those not deemed vulnerable not requiring hospital treatment.

They are, in my opinion, making misinterpretations of the references they are using for the assumption above and making a massive leap to nowhere as a result.

[imtommygunn]

2 out of 10 who get it are in trouble. That's as simple as it is. That's not a mortality rate but the bigger strain the health services are under then the closer the rate moves to those 2 out of 10.

8 out of 10 will be fine.

No one can be 100% sure whether they will fall into the 8 or the 2.

[RedHand88]

A Spar in Belfast is selling toilet rolls for a pound each.

[seafoid]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0

Here it is by the way.

Their big assumption is that only 1% or 0.1% of population were at severe risk to the disease - and that only a subset of those would be admitted to hospital and a further subset of those would die.
[i.e. the ~1% mortality rate applies to that 1% or 0.1% of the population, excluding the other 99% or 99.9%]

We've seen healthy young die in China. We've seen healthy young on ventilators here. Plenty of young and healthy have died in Italy without underlying conditions. Even more have been admitted to hospital. The evidence does not support the basis of those not deemed vulnerable not requiring hospital treatment.

They are, in my opinion, making misinterpretations of the references they are using for the assumption above and making a massive leap to nowhere as a result.

The plural of anecdote is not data. How many deaths under 40 for example and are they statistically significant ? 

[imtommygunn]

A Spar in Belfast is selling toilet rolls for a pound each.

I saw a great idea in one of the scandanavian countries I think it was. One pack of toilet rolls normal price, 2 packs and the price went up significantly (like to about 80 quid). I think that should be done here.

[five points]

A Spar in Belfast is selling toilet rolls for a pound each.

I saw a great idea in one of the scandanavian countries I think it was. One pack of toilet rolls normal price, 2 packs and the price went up significantly (like to about 80 quid). I think that should be done here.

Either a publicity stunt or a hoax. A small child would work around it.

[RadioGAAGAA]

The plural of anecdote is not data. How many deaths under 40 for example and are they statistically significant ?

Not insignificant. Mortality rates for 30-39:
China: 0.2%
Italy: 0.3%

It looks like if your under 30, your gonna survive, however that does not mean you escape hospitalisation. See table 1 here for SK data which shows hospitalisation across all age groups:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext


But note, the point is not about under 40s - unless you believe 99% of the population is under 40 year old. It doesn't align with the oxford study.

[Milltown Row2]

Yeah far too many experts and nothing but bad bad news. It is clearly horrendously bad but someone I know messaged our whatsapp group this morning to say he has now known 10 people with it who have been ok.

As I say it is clearly very very bad and getting worse but there are some positive stories too.

Part of me would believe what those oxford researchers say too.

The guy from our club that got it is fine, positive story

[seafoid]

The plural of anecdote is not data. How many deaths under 40 for example and are they statistically significant ?

Not insignificant. Mortality rates for 30-39:
China: 0.2%
Italy: 0.3%

It looks like if your under 30, your gonna survive, however that does not mean you escape hospitalisation. See table 1 here for SK data which shows hospitalisation across all age groups:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext


But note, the point is not about under 40s - unless you believe 99% of the population is under 40 year old. It doesn't align with the oxford study.

There are lots of gaps at the moment. Did the under 40s belong to any specific risk group or is it a population wide mortality  loading?

Most countries haven't got far measuring the extent of the virus so there are a lot of assumptions being used.

[armaghniac]

Yeah far too many experts and nothing but bad bad news. It is clearly horrendously bad but someone I know messaged our whatsapp group this morning to say he has now known 10 people with it who have been ok.

People who knew they have it or people who thought they had it?
In the ROI only 6% of people tested recently had the virus, the rest presumably thought they had it.

[Maiden1]

The plural of anecdote is not data. How many deaths under 40 for example and are they statistically significant ?

Not insignificant. Mortality rates for 30-39:
China: 0.2%
Italy: 0.3%

It looks like if your under 30, your gonna survive, however that does not mean you escape hospitalisation. See table 1 here for SK data which shows hospitalisation across all age groups:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext


But note, the point is not about under 40s - unless you believe 99% of the population is under 40 year old. It doesn't align with the oxford study.

The article is claiming most people who get it don't know they have it so they are not being counted in the numbers.

e.g.

1000 people under 40 have Corona Virus don't know they have it as they have very mild symptoms and don't see a doctor.  All recover.
1000 people with underlying health issues are tested and 100 have it and 5 die.

5/100 = 5% will be the recorded death rate of those tested.

5/1100 = 0.45% will be the death rate if all the other people who are not being tested where being tested.

Interesting article below I think. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8138675/PETER-HITCHENS-shutting-Britain-REALLY-right-answer.html

I believe a significant proportion of people are silent in their doubt about the proportionality of the approach being taken for fear of people saying they are 'siding with the nazis'.  People like Alex Ferguson and Harry Redknapp going to Cheltenham with 100 thousand other people or Stanley Johnston going to the pub are more or less saying they don't believe they are at significant risk.  The last time I was in the butchers a couple of days half the people in the queue looked like they were pensionable age.

[GetOverTheBar]

Yeah far too many experts and nothing but bad bad news. It is clearly horrendously bad but someone I know messaged our whatsapp group this morning to say he has now known 10 people with it who have been ok.

As I say it is clearly very very bad and getting worse but there are some positive stories too.

Part of me would believe what those oxford researchers say too.

The guy from our club that got it is fine, positive story

Great to hear - we need more positive news like this coming. 

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Walk out in Moy Park?

[Solo_run]

The research done by Oxford in my opinion is probably right. The virus has 14 days to spread without any  noticeable symptoms and went undetected for a while.

If this started in mid November as claimed then there is every chance this virus could have made its way to Europe a lot earlier. The reason we dont see large numbers earlier if because it is had similar symptoms to the flu, there wasn't an awareness of the virus, just look at how many people have reported that their doctors were saying it was just the flu and to go home and take it easy.

China's population is out of control so we are very likely to see a domino effect. Each day one person is passing the virus on to another 3-5 people on average without knowing it. They are doing this every single day for over 2 weeks and then the person who they infect is doing the same etc.

1 person could potentially be infecting 70 people give or take. Some will be kissing their children goodnight or holding their hands. They then go into school and pass it on through their class/school. They then go home to their parents and they do the same thing.

As for reported cases - how can they be reported when nobody knows they are looking for it and there is no research to guide it? Doctors are highly likely to dismiss it as flu when they aren't aware of the disease being in the population. The deaths that are caused because of Covid 19 are probably being put down to flu.

Don't be fooled by the numbers, they use the term 'confirmed cases' for a reason but do not make the mistake of using it as an indicator of how many people are infected.

Hate to be the party pooper but over here in England I am not hearing anything positive. My sister works in A&E and they are being given instructions a lot of people won't like.