China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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JoG2

Quote from: Franko on January 18, 2021, 05:37:54 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on January 18, 2021, 04:43:40 PM
The figures on the COVID dashboard showing the ICU bed occupancy from COVID are frightening and the graph is going the wrong way.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

The 5 day average is still trending upwards, but there does seem to be some hope in the single day figures, which were lower today.

Also, when they talk about percentage occupancy - I assume this is a percentage of current ICU capacity, and not historic capacity?

The CEO of the Northern Trust was on with Carruthers yesterday morning and was saying that they had almost doubled their ICU bed numbers in anticipation of this rise.

If that is the case, they are running at 150-200% of 'normal' ICU capacity.

That's exactly it Frank. Take Altnagelvin as an example. ICU wise, 10 beds. In April they doubled to 20 beds (surge capacity beds). For weeks all hospitals, with the exception of Causeway have been in 'surge' mode ie over normal capacity.

What I've learned re anti-vaxers, anti-lockdown brigade is they will never change their minds. Its a waste of time even trying. A bunch of binlids the lot of them


whitegoodman

Can someone explain why the 14 day incidence rate is higher this week than last week when there are far less cases this week ?

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: whitegoodman on January 18, 2021, 07:05:55 PM
Can someone explain why the 14 day incidence rate is higher this week than last week when there are far less cases this week ?

Is it because it's a 14 day incidence rate not a 7? Not sure

whitegoodman

Surely the 14 rate is getting less as the cases become less as the days go on.

Franko

Quote from: whitegoodman on January 18, 2021, 07:40:19 PM
Surely the 14 rate is getting less as the cases become less as the days go on.

Because case numbers rose more quickly before the peak than they are falling after it

LeoMc

Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 05:07:07 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on January 18, 2021, 04:49:52 PM
Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 04:32:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 18, 2021, 04:24:28 PM
Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 03:38:11 PM
We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.
From the Lancet

In a survey by the UK Government's Office for National Statistics in November, 2020, around one in five people who tested positive for COVID-19 had symptoms that lasted for 5 weeks or longer, and one in ten people had symptoms that lasted for 12 weeks or longer.


Common long COVID symptoms include:

extreme tiredness (fatigue)
shortness of breath
chest pain or tightness
problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog")
difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
heart palpitations
dizziness
pins and needles
joint pain
depression and anxiety
tinnitus, earaches
feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
rashes

How big was the survey sample?
8193 people

LeoMc

Quote from: JoG2 on January 18, 2021, 06:30:29 PM
Quote from: Franko on January 18, 2021, 05:37:54 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on January 18, 2021, 04:43:40 PM
The figures on the COVID dashboard showing the ICU bed occupancy from COVID are frightening and the graph is going the wrong way.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

The 5 day average is still trending upwards, but there does seem to be some hope in the single day figures, which were lower today.

Also, when they talk about percentage occupancy - I assume this is a percentage of current ICU capacity, and not historic capacity?

The CEO of the Northern Trust was on with Carruthers yesterday morning and was saying that they had almost doubled their ICU bed numbers in anticipation of this rise.

If that is the case, they are running at 150-200% of 'normal' ICU capacity.

That's exactly it Frank. Take Altnagelvin as an example. ICU wise, 10 beds. In April they doubled to 20 beds (surge capacity beds). For weeks all hospitals, with the exception of Causeway have been in 'surge' mode ie over normal capacity.

What I've learned re anti-vaxers, anti-lockdown brigade is they will never change their minds. Its a waste of time even trying. A bunch of binlids the lot of them

The dashboard notes that the capacity on a given day includes any surge capacity.

macdanger2

Quote from: whitegoodman on January 18, 2021, 07:05:55 PM
Can someone explain why the 14 day incidence rate is higher this week than last week when there are far less cases this week ?

The 14 day incidence rate will only start to fall when the number of cases today is lower than the number of cases 15 days ago - the number from 15 days ago is the one that's being dropped from the calculation. 

whitegoodman

Right I get you now.  So the cases early January were not over 2,000 ?

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: LeoMc on January 18, 2021, 08:16:19 PM
Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 05:07:07 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on January 18, 2021, 04:49:52 PM
Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 04:32:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 18, 2021, 04:24:28 PM
Quote from: Angelo on January 18, 2021, 03:38:11 PM
We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.
From the Lancet

In a survey by the UK Government's Office for National Statistics in November, 2020, around one in five people who tested positive for COVID-19 had symptoms that lasted for 5 weeks or longer, and one in ten people had symptoms that lasted for 12 weeks or longer.


Common long COVID symptoms include:

extreme tiredness (fatigue)
shortness of breath
chest pain or tightness
problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog")
difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
heart palpitations
dizziness
pins and needles
joint pain
depression and anxiety
tinnitus, earaches
feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
rashes

How big was the survey sample?
8193 people

14 weeks and I still have few of those, palpitations and constant ear aches plus terrible brain fog, studying atm, finding it difficult to read and concentrate


armaghniac

Sean Boylan on RTE at 10:35 on recovering from Covid.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B


Smurfy123

Further lockdowns even with vaccination
3 months ago all we heard from the health experts were science and vaccines will win
Now vaccines are here it's now changed
You couldn't make this up

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on January 18, 2021, 09:38:42 PM
No jelly for Balymena Sunday lunches

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/jelly-and-gravy-supplies-threatened-when-grace-period-ends-stormont-warns-39981622.html

Sure we can get gravy from the chippy.

Not sure if they stock much in the way of jelly though.

Did Sammy recommend we go to gelatos as well?
i usse an speelchekor