China Coronavirus

[imtommygunn]

I'm waiting for "you can't handle the truth" too.

[Smurfy123]

The percentage of 80+ admitted to hospital in the north has dropped about 8% on a rolling basis.
Good sign
Early indication that the vaccine is working?
Positive or just luck

[armaghniac]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service. 

[Angelo]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.

[LeoMc]

The figures on the COVID dashboard showing the ICU bed occupancy from COVID are frightening and the graph is going the wrong way.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

[LeoMc]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.

From the Lancet

In a survey by the UK Government's Office for National Statistics in November, 2020, around one in five people who tested positive for COVID-19 had symptoms that lasted for 5 weeks or longer, and one in ten people had symptoms that lasted for 12 weeks or longer.


Common long COVID symptoms include:

extreme tiredness (fatigue)
shortness of breath
chest pain or tightness
problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog")
difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
heart palpitations
dizziness
pins and needles
joint pain
depression and anxiety
tinnitus, earaches
feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
rashes

[armaghniac]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.

You could have read the article I linked which notes, among other things, "According to a preprint published in October that has not yet undergone peer review, 24% of 233 patients still had symptoms at 90 days after infection".

If on this island there are 4000 people infected each day, as has been the case recently, then that is 1000 people with long term symptoms.

[Angelo]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.

From the Lancet

In a survey by the UK Government's Office for National Statistics in November, 2020, around one in five people who tested positive for COVID-19 had symptoms that lasted for 5 weeks or longer, and one in ten people had symptoms that lasted for 12 weeks or longer.


Common long COVID symptoms include:

extreme tiredness (fatigue)
shortness of breath
chest pain or tightness
problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog")
difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
heart palpitations
dizziness
pins and needles
joint pain
depression and anxiety
tinnitus, earaches
feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
rashes

How big was the survey sample?

[Angelo]

We do know Covid is not a threat to around half the population. Look at the stats up north.

It is a threat.
Directly, a large number of people have lasting after effects from Covid, an order of magnitude more than is the case with any recent variant of flu.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01177-6

But of course indirectly it is a threat also, as hospitals are full and if someone has a road accident or the like then their treatment may be compromised, or they may get Covid in hospital when they are vulnerable.

Half the people in ICU with Covid are under 65 and vaccinating all the over 65s will not stop this pressure on the health service.

Define large number? That's a very vague and ambiguous term?

Covid being spread in hospital is a concern admittedly but that's a health system failing.

The fatality rate of Covid for u40s is about 1 in 14,000 positive cases.

You could have read the article I linked which notes, among other things, "According to a preprint published in October that has not yet undergone peer review, 24% of 233 patients still had symptoms at 90 days after infection".

If on this island there are 4000 people infected each day, as has been the case recently, then that is 1000 people with long term symptoms.

56 people in a sample of 233 people. Wow, definitive.

[Franko]

The figures on the COVID dashboard showing the ICU bed occupancy from COVID are frightening and the graph is going the wrong way.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

The 5 day average is still trending upwards, but there does seem to be some hope in the single day figures, which were lower today.

Also, when they talk about percentage occupancy - I assume this is a percentage of current ICU capacity, and not historic capacity?

The CEO of the Northern Trust was on with Carruthers yesterday morning and was saying that they had almost doubled their ICU bed numbers in anticipation of this rise.

If that is the case, they are running at 150-200% of 'normal' ICU capacity.

[imtommygunn]

I don't fully understand the occupancy but it can be at over 100 when there are ICU beds available so it must take into consideration more than ICU. I would guess a &e has to be a big factor there.

[Franko]

I don't fully understand the occupancy but it can be at over 100 when there are ICU beds available so it must take into consideration more than ICU. I would guess a &e has to be a big factor there.

I had always assumed that over 100% meant that some unfortunate person was deemed clinically to need an ICU bed but couldn't get it?

Again, happy to be corrected on this as I'm not sure.

[imtommygunn]

Tbh I am not that sure either but I do follow those stats and regularly there are free icu beds according to it when at over 100% capacity so my assumption was that it was other areas too.

There have always been some free icu beds when I have looked (which I would tend to do most days) though sometimes not many. How many ICU beds there actually are fluctuate up and down a lot for whatever reason.

[Milltown Row2]

Tbh I am not that sure either but I do follow those stats and regularly there are free icu beds according to it when at over 100% capacity so my assumption was that it was other areas too.

There have always been some free icu beds when I have looked (which I would tend to do most days) though sometimes not many. How many ICU beds there actually are fluctuate up and down a lot for whatever reason.

I'm sure there is a poster that can give you that information as it always deals with facts/stats

[Smurfy123]

Median age of death in the south today was 85
We have problems in care homes
Criminal
Sort it out