The Many Faces of US Politics...

[Roesider]

I think people are putting too much store in early voting

There was always going to be a massive early vote this time because of the Covid situation

But whether it actually turns into a record turnout is very much open to question

It needs to be

The media have been doing what they love to do - paint any performance by Trump in which he doesn't come across as a total screaming lunatic - which he probably just about avoided doing last night - as "presidential" or some such nonsense

A lot of them are desperate for a close race

And I think they'll get it

Polls in Florida are razor tight and Arizona seems to be closing up too

If Florida falls for Trump it's likely that North Carolina will too - and I expect they will because the Republicans are expert at voter suppression in those states

That leaves the three mid-western states and there's no margin for error

I can't help but come back to hacking and vote falsification

It's going to decide it in Trump's favour

Not to mention the stolen supreme court seat for Coney Barrett. Democrats should have been putting a lot more pressure on Republican senators to rule her unfit for office, especially using the precedent of Garland.

[Farrandeelin]

Can anyone tell me the swing states that these elections usually depend upon? Florida must be one if it's mentioned so often. Pennsylvania? Arizona? What are the others?

[sid waddell]

I think people are putting too much store in early voting

There was always going to be a massive early vote this time because of the Covid situation

But whether it actually turns into a record turnout is very much open to question

It needs to be

The media have been doing what they love to do - paint any performance by Trump in which he doesn't come across as a total screaming lunatic - which he probably just about avoided doing last night - as "presidential" or some such nonsense

A lot of them are desperate for a close race

And I think they'll get it

Polls in Florida are razor tight and Arizona seems to be closing up too

If Florida falls for Trump it's likely that North Carolina will too - and I expect they will because the Republicans are expert at voter suppression in those states

That leaves the three mid-western states and there's no margin for error

I can't help but come back to hacking and vote falsification

It's going to decide it in Trump's favour

Not to mention the stolen supreme court seat for Coney Barrett. Democrats should have been putting a lot more pressure on Republican senators to rule her unfit for office, especially using the precedent of Garland.

When Trump ludicrously claims the Democrats are planning to rig the election against him, it's obvious projection - as that's what he's planning to do

Yet the Democrats fall straight into the trap and say that the election isn't rigged and that they'll accept the results whatever happens

When they are likely going to be the victims of rigging, as they probably were in 2016

The Democrats, as on so many other things, just gave up on Coney Barrett hoping for "impeachment at the ballot box" (there's no such thing)

Pelosi and Schumer really need to go and make way for younger, more progressive people

If Biden does get in, it needs to be all out war for four years, the American right-wing needs to be destroyed, expansion of the Supreme Court should only be a starting point

It won't happen though, the Democratic establishment still don't know the utter menace they're dealing with

[Rudi]

Can anyone tell me the swing states that these elections usually depend upon? Florida must be one if it's mentioned so often. Pennsylvania? Arizona? What are the others?

Florida, Pennsylvania,  Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin,  Arizona,  North Carolina,  Michigan.

[sid waddell]

Can anyone tell me the swing states that these elections usually depend upon? Florida must be one if it's mentioned so often. Pennsylvania? Arizona? What are the others?

Biden needs to gain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and hold onto every other state Clinton won in 2016

These three are the absolute core targets

If he achieves the above, he wins

It's hard to see Trump gain any states he lost in 2016 - Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire look to be the only three he has an outside chance in but on all known form and polling, Biden wins them

Biden is pushing very hard in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio - but he could easily draw a blank in all four - expect serious shenanigans in all four - there always is

He's pushing hard in Texas, Georgia and Iowa but it's hard to see him actually win any of these

All the other states look fait accomplis

This is a good site as regards permutations

https://www.270towin.com/

[screenexile]

I watched the Trump doco on BBC... it's amazing the amount of crazy shit we've forgotten because it's just so normal!!

Remember paying off the pornstar?? Siding with Putin rather than his intelligence services?? Wanting to buy Greenland??

The documentary is very good btw Bannon is a piece of shit hopefully he gets locked up for fraud!!

[lenny]

I watched the Trump doco on BBC... it's amazing the amount of crazy shit we've forgotten because it's just so normal!!

Remember paying off the pornstar?? Siding with Putin rather than his intelligence services?? Wanting to buy Greenland??

The documentary is very good btw Bannon is a piece of shit hopefully he gets locked up for fraud!!

It's ridiculous that Bannon is still peddling lies and propaganda while out on bail. He's extremely dangerous. He's obviously hoping trump will win and give him a pardon.

[LCohen]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

[sid waddell]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

There was talk of Hillary Clinton winning Texas and Georgia in 2016 too though

The thread below is why I don't expect Biden will win Texas or Florida or Georgia and probably Arizona this time either

And expect to hear a lot about "naked ballots" in Pennsylvania, also do not be surprised if the word "malware" is on everybody's lips in nine days' time

The bottom line is that if the election has any semblance of legitimacy, Biden will sweep it, the question is, will it have any semblance of legitimacy - turnout is vital as the higher the turnout, the harder it is for Republicans to steal the election

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1320405722413215744.html

(5/18) Increasingly, this election is coming down to the simple question of how effective 40 years of concerted Republican voter suppression efforts will be. ...
(6/18) Their main strategy, particularly since George and Jeb Bush got together in 2000 to use a Texas felon list to purge 90,000 Black people off voting roles in Florida, has been removing the names of people who are legitimate voters. ...
(7/18) Those people then go to the polls and are given "provisional ballots" which, in most cases, are only counted if there's a lawsuit. ...
(8/18) They think they voted, they tell pollsters they voted, but their votes don't get counted. ...
(9/18) Back in 2004, fully 22 states experienced what has now come to be called "red shift"—where the exit polls are "wrong" but almost always in a way that benefits Republicans. ...
(10/18) For example, in the 2016 election, the exit polls showed Hillary Clinton carrying Florida by 47.7 percent to Trump's 46.4 percent, although the "actual" counted vote had Trump winning by 49.0 percent to 47.8 percent. Trump gained 2.5 percentage points . . . somehow. ...
(11/18) In North Carolina, exit polls showed Clinton winning 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent, but the votes that were counted turned out with Trump's 49.9 to Clinton's 46.1, a red shift of 5.9 percentage points for the GOP. ...
(12/18) Pennsylvania's exit polls showed that Clinton won 50.5 percent to Trump's 46.1 percent, but when "eligible" votes were counted, Trump carried the state 48.8 percent to Clinton's 47.6 percent—a red shift of 5.6 percentage points. ...
(13/18) In Wisconsin, it was Clinton beating Trump in the exit polls 48.2 percent to 44.3 percent, but the "real" count put Trump over the top at 48.8 percent to 47.6 percent, a red shift of 5.1 percentage points. ...
(14/18) Just these differences, reflecting thousands of people who showed up, voted, and didn't realize their votes were never going to be counted because they had been purged from voting rolls prior to the election, handed the White House to Donald Trump. ...
(15/18) Perhaps even more interesting, in states without a Republican secretary of state, there is virtually no shift at all, either red or blue, and hasn't been ever. The election results typically comport with the exit polls in blue states. ...

[J70]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Milltown Row2]

who was the last president to only get 4 years?

[dec]

who was the last president to only get 4 years?

Bush Sr.

[Milltown Row2]

who was the last president to only get 4 years?

Bush Sr.

So it doesn't happen that much, maybe Carter before him?  generally it comes about when the economy has crashed or there has been a big scandal, or pure incompetence ..

Will the voters who have voiced their annoyance of Trump just secretly vote him in at the ballot box?

[Taylor]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

[dec]

who was the last president to only get 4 years?

Bush Sr.

So it doesn't happen that much, maybe Carter before him?  generally it comes about when the economy has crashed or there has been a big scandal, or pure incompetence ..

Will the voters who have voiced their annoyance of Trump just secretly vote him in at the ballot box?

since 1952 the parties have mostly alternated 2 term presidencies except for the period around Reagan

52,56 Rep
60,64 Dem
68,72 Rep

76, Dem
80,84,88 Rep

92,96 Dem
00,04 Rep
08,12 Dem

16     Rep
20     ?