A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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Ulick

Surprised no one has picked-up on this, though I don't suppose it fits with the standard that we can't afford it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Unification of Ireland 'could bring in €36.5bn in eight years'


New study claims unification could lead to a significant boost in GDP for the island

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

Economic models
The Modelling Irish Unification study, launched at the Harvard Club in Manhattan, examines three unification scenarios, using economic models developed by Dr Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, a professor of economics at ETH Zürich.

These models assume five key scenarios which would play out as a result of unification.

First was the harmonisation of the tax systems across the island with the North adopting the tax rates and regulations of the Republic, which the researchers said would encourage more foreign direct investment in Northern Ireland.

The second assumption was that unification would reduce trade barriers and cut transport and currency transaction costs between the North, the Republic and other euro zone countries.

The model also presumed Northern Ireland would adopt the euro, a move which it said would in the short term boost economic output because of the strength of sterling.

Productivity
The fourth scenario predicted that unification would deliver productivity improvements – researchers pointed out that there is currently a sizeable productivity gap between the North and the Republic which they say is mainly to blame in the difference between the industrial structures of the two economies.

Finally, the model also looked at current fiscal transfers and noted that Northern Ireland's current fiscal deficit – more than £9 billion – would have to be financed by the Republic.

However, it also notes that unification would create just one government structure and associated savings could in the long term be reinvested in the private economy or public projects.

According to Dr Hübner, the results show that the Northern Ireland economy would enjoy significant long-term improvements from unification.

"While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy."

Thu, Nov 19, 2015, 01:00



seafoid

Currency movements shouldn't be relevant to long term political arrangements.

I wonder what would be the cost of opposition to the unification , how it would manifest itself and whether or not it has been modelled.
One of the man problems with economists is their use of the rational agent model. there are F all rational agents in the DUP, for example.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

deiseach

The lede is buried really deep in that IT article:

Quote from: Ulick on November 20, 2015, 01:37:52 PM
"While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy."


seafoid

Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Franko

Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

deiseach

If you could offer 'Britain' a binary choice between having or not having sovereignty over the North, I think they'd take it. My wife is always fulminating against the perfidious Jocks, but she went awful quiet when it looked like they might leave the Union. The end of The United Kingdom would be too much to bear.

seafoid

Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.
And linen and shipbuilding were like tech is today. And time moved on and Belfast was hobbled by political dysfunction and eventually Dublin got motorways and the rest is history. But 100 years ago Belfast was way ahead in front.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

gallsman

Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

seafoid

Quote from: gallsman on November 20, 2015, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.
the decline of the "Protestant" industries and the beginning of terrorism just killed whatever economic spark there was in Belfast. Glasgow has a similar feel, without the killing. The Clyde went through the same process of deindustrialisation and you are left with fabulous buildings from 100 years ago and not much from 30 years ago.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Franko

#69
Quote from: gallsman on November 20, 2015, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.

general_lee

Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 03:04:58 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 20, 2015, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.
Are there any examples of other cities in the UK that have gone on to prosper after having their main industry decimated? I think of places like Liverpool and Glasgow and think call centres  ::)

Franko

#71
Quote from: general_lee on November 20, 2015, 03:16:29 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 03:04:58 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 20, 2015, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.
Are there any examples of other cities in the UK that have gone on to prosper after having their main industry decimated? I think of places like Liverpool and Glasgow and think call centres  ::)

In a united country, why would the north have fared any worse (or any better) than any other region in Ireland, no matter what parliament was pulling the strings?

Had the country stayed under British rule, the north would have received a greater slice of the goodies from Westminster, I don't think anyone would logically argue with that.

Had we become one entity, ruled from Dublin, why would the north not have gotten it's share of the tech/pharma/financial influx, in the same manner that, say, Cork did?

The only reason the economy of the north is in the state it is in currently, is the blueshirt's border.


Edit... the north is not a city....

seafoid

Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: general_lee on November 20, 2015, 03:16:29 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 03:04:58 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 20, 2015, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 20, 2015, 02:04:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 20, 2015, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: winghalfback on May 27, 2015, 10:26:55 PM
Quote from: An Watcher on May 27, 2015, 10:00:29 PM
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.
Are there any examples of other cities in the UK that have gone on to prosper after having their main industry decimated? I think of places like Liverpool and Glasgow and think call centres  ::)

In a united country, why would the north have fared any worse (or any better) than any other region in Ireland, no matter what parliament was pulling the strings?

Had the country stayed under British rule, the north would have received a greater slice of the goodies from Westminster, I don't think anyone would logically argue with that.

Had we become one entity, ruled from Dublin, why would the north not have gotten it's share of the tech/pharma/financial influx, in the same manner that, say, Cork did?

The only reason the economy of the north is in the state it is in currently, is the blueshirt's border.


Edit... the north is not a city....
It's the border of Protestant Antrim and North Down. The other 4 counties were thrown in for ballast. The blueshirts had zero leverage.
Dev for all his republican bluster did nothing about it.
The Border Commission never met either.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Rossfan

Indeed Seafòid. The Civil war was over the Oath and the status of the new State. Everybody accepted the North East would not be included. However all were led to believe that  South Down, a lot of Armagh, most of Fermanagh and Tyrone and parts of Derry incl the City would end up in the Free state following the Boundary Commission.
When the "yes" side wins the referendum will there be a move by Unionists to repartition the 6 cos??
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

smelmoth

Quote from: Ulick on November 20, 2015, 01:37:52 PM
Surprised no one has picked-up on this, though I don't suppose it fits with the standard that we can't afford it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Unification of Ireland 'could bring in €36.5bn in eight years'


New study claims unification could lead to a significant boost in GDP for the island

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

Economic models
The Modelling Irish Unification study, launched at the Harvard Club in Manhattan, examines three unification scenarios, using economic models developed by Dr Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, a professor of economics at ETH Zürich.

These models assume five key scenarios which would play out as a result of unification.

First was the harmonisation of the tax systems across the island with the North adopting the tax rates and regulations of the Republic, which the researchers said would encourage more foreign direct investment in Northern Ireland.

The second assumption was that unification would reduce trade barriers and cut transport and currency transaction costs between the North, the Republic and other euro zone countries.

The model also presumed Northern Ireland would adopt the euro, a move which it said would in the short term boost economic output because of the strength of sterling.

Productivity
The fourth scenario predicted that unification would deliver productivity improvements – researchers pointed out that there is currently a sizeable productivity gap between the North and the Republic which they say is mainly to blame in the difference between the industrial structures of the two economies.

Finally, the model also looked at current fiscal transfers and noted that Northern Ireland's current fiscal deficit – more than £9 billion – would have to be financed by the Republic.

However, it also notes that unification would create just one government structure and associated savings could in the long term be reinvested in the private economy or public projects.

According to Dr Hübner, the results show that the Northern Ireland economy would enjoy significant long-term improvements from unification.

"While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy."

Thu, Nov 19, 2015, 01:00

The article and the study do precisely zero to challenge the view that a united ireland is not currently viable