The Recession

[Zapatista]

we all know we're heading for a recession. whats annoying me is the media coverage of it.

bad news everytime you open a paper or look at the news. the thing is you just know they are slowly building up for the headlines of the century "RECESSION - IT'S HERE" !! across the front of every paper and news programme going. every man, woman and child knows we've been verging on this recession since about september of last year.

i think the sooner they just come out with it that we're in recession the better...the sooner any sort of a recovery can then start.

We have been in recession for about 10 months. There has been a steady decline in GNP since about that time. It is here. It's not at a depression but definatley a recession.

[the Deel Rover]

we might be in a recession but at least the price of donkeys is going up well according to David Mc Williams

Wednesday September 03 2008

Recently, I overheard a conversation about donkeys at a bar in Connemara. Being a committed suburbanite, the price of donkeys is not something I'd know much about, but this conversation was different. It was as enlightening a discussion as I've heard in years and it contained a profound economic message. Let me introduce the "donkey indicator of consumption" or "DIC" for short.

What can the donkey tell us about the economy? Traditionally, the humble donkey was a sign of poverty. In the old grainy photos, taken by cranium-measuring English anthropologists, the Irish peasants stared vacuously into the lens flanked by their trusted, yet melancholic donkey.

Right up to the early 1980s, the donkey featured prominently in the John Hinde postcard view of Ireland. Everyone must remember the iconic postcard of the two flaming redheaded children, squinting -- as redsers do in the sun -- against the background of the 12 Bens, with the turf-laden donkey. The donkey and backward Ireland were synonymous. Back then, the donkey was known as the "poor man's tractor".

In the past 20 years, the poor donkey was ignored on Irish farms; as the farmers got richer, the stigma attached to the donkey was heightened and no self-respecting, ambitious farmer would be seen dead with a donkey when he could get a Massey Ferguson on hire purchase. So unloved was the poor auld asal, that Ireland became a net exporter of donkeys.

Until recently, the Irish donkey was being shipped out to Spain, where his determined and uncomplaining work ethic was still valued. In Ireland, the working donkey faced extinction. The price of donkeys languished. Three years ago, you could pick up a healthy three-year-old mare for around €500 -- about the same price as a Labrador pup.

But the fortune of the donkey has experienced a rapid turnaround in the past three years. This reversal of fortune was evident in the West last week during the final week for taking home the turf.

Traditionally in the country, turf is cut in March or April and left in big "clamps" to dry out over the summer. Counter-intuitively, the drying season this year was only marginally affected by the torrential rain, because turf doesn't absorb water once it is dry. So all over the West, men took home turf last week. If you witnessed this, you might also have noticed the return of the donkey. Farmers there have reacted to the ludicrous cost of fuel by going back to the donkey. As the price of oil soared, so did the price of the donkey.

Since 2005, the price of the donkey has tripled. Healthy mares are now selling for between €1,200 and €1,800 and there's no sign of demand flagging. The sight of a little neidin laden down with two full "grills" (baskets) of turf is once again commonplace in Connemara. Likewise, the price of turf has increased. It is now trading at around €450 for a "tractor-trailer load" -- this is up almost 70pc in three years.

As the lads at the bar in Connemara were suggesting, the donkey is back and the working donkey is something of value again, thanks to the raging price of fuel. In economics, this development is called the "law of unintended consequences". This occurs when a development (such as the rise of China, which pushes up the world price of oil) ushers in an unexpected new golden age (like that of the donkey in Achill Island). Not even the donkey is immune to global trends.

However, the donkey is not just benefiting from the cost of keeping a tractor on the road, because it is not just the "working donkey" that has seen an increase in his lot over the past two years. The DIC index captures another, related yet separate social trend.

Anyone who was at the marvellous Electric Picnic noticed the environmental theme which ran through the three-day festival. Concern for the environment is now an essential part of the intellectual armoury of the discerning class. It goes together with a knowledge of world music, appreciation of diverse cultures and an understanding of the culinary potential of fennel.

People who are concerned about the environment define themselves by simplicity as opposed to complexity, frugality as opposed to flash. They promote the authentic over the fabricated, the natural over the man-made and the rural over the urban.

What could be more natural, simple and rural, than the humble donkey? As a result, the donkey is coveted by the discriminating class. The donkey is a fashion statement for environmentally concerned second-home owners in the country. In fact, nothing so underlines your hipness and right-on-ness as the sight of your own donkey grazing in the field out the back of the holiday home in Ballyconnely.

For our new environmentally aware middle class, owning, appreciating and telling your friends about your own donkey is a sign of social sophistication.

While your mates' children are stuck inside, glued to "club penguin", your own children are braving the elements, cavorting healthily with their very own donkey. They are at one with nature and the donkey is the poster-boy of the sophisticated elite. Responsible, far-thinking parents buy donkeys. In contrast, lazy, ill-informed parents buy PlayStations.

Thus it came to pass. The humble donkey is back. He is a cost saver against the rapid increase in the price of fuel. He is an environmental bulwark against the destruction of the countryside and he is a highly sought-after appendage for the educated elite.

The donkey is back.

This year saw the first Irish donkey festival which was organised by Dominic Gerraghty, known affectionately as 'Mr Donkey' (woodfieldopenfarm@yahoo.ie). It's a long way from 'M'Asal Beag Dubh', but the "donkey renaissance" is one of the many contradictions of the globalised world.

Next time you want to gauge the impact of higher oil prices, just look over a ditch and see who is looking back out at you.

www.davidmcwilliams.ie

-

[cicfada]

yeah the recession has hit home  for me! Told yesterday that i have 6 weeks left. To make matters worse herself could be out of a job this year as well! Her company is closing this year! Tough times indeed!!

[Bogball XV]

not good cicfada, what area of work are you both in?  Hope it works out for you anyway.

[Donagh]

Sorry to hear that cicfada. You never know, a year or two down the line and yiz could be both doing something more rewarding you'd never have gotten the chance to do otherwise. Hang in there...

[the Deel Rover]

not nice news to get cicfada seems to be getting fairly common judigng by the news today, like donagh said hang in there and hopefully thing will work out for ye.  Was there any sign of the news or was it a complete shock?

[cicfada]

Thanks for your wishes guys/gals!! I am in the Civil Engineering side of things and these kinds of things are expected but this did come out of the blue to be honest!! There were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us! Maybe it's a good time to go back to school now! with 3 kids in tow, there are all kinds of pressures building up on me! As a  normally optimistic person it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel this time though!!

[J70]

Three years ago, you could pick up a healthy three-year-old mare for around €500 -- about the same price as a Labrador pup.

Who the hell would pay 500 euro for a labrador pup?

What the hell is the matter with saving one of the neighbour's border collie pups from the river like most normal people used to do when they needed a dog?

[pintsofguinness]

That's shite cic, hang in there.

Think the same is happening alot of people.
Doesn't really matter if people want to call it a recession or not it's pretty shite.

[ludermor]

Im in the building game myself Cic and we are letting go people every week. As you said its no reflection of ability, it comes down to cost. i know a lot of smaller builders are sacking their long term workers and employing lads that have been laid off for cheaper money. There are still some jobs out there though but it is getting really tight

[FL/MAYO]

Sorry to hear that Cic, for what its worth I still think you made the right move going back, things are no better here in FL with property prices still falling and the building industry really in a bad state. Hang in there.

[muppet]

There were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us

If your company is over a certain minimum size that may be illegal. Look at http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories[/u]]http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories to check out your rights.

You may also be entitled to redundancy payements over and above what they offer.

[cicfada]

There were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us

If your company is over a certain minimum size that may be illegal. Look at http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories[/u]]http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories to check out your rights.

You may also be entitled to redundancy payements over and above what they offer.

Thanks Muppet, but I am not even getting redundancy as I  as with them less than 2 years!! I just might be better off away from the f**kers now!

[thejuice]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=01i9x_fmGIA

Stock markets tanking, perhaps because of the C-virus but On top of that we also have another round of QE coming.

Are we perhaps on the brink of a massive recession. Have we kicked that can as far as fiscally possible. I know bitcoin folks are always hammering away at fiat currencies and the federal reserve but they have a point.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khp3wG55wME

[Milltown Row2]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=01i9x_fmGIA

Stock markets tanking, perhaps because of the C-virus but On top of that we also have another round of QE coming.

Are we perhaps on the brink of a massive recession. Have we kicked that can as far as fiscally possible. I know bitcoin folks are always hammering away at fiat currencies and the federal reserve but they have a point.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khp3wG55wME

Are we out of the last recession?