Sinn Fein - Finished in the Republic

[Fishead_Sam]

If a normal political party had an election result like Sinn Fein had there would be calls for Gerry Adams to step down.

But Sinn Fein are not a normal political party.

Maybe thats why they get on so well with the DUP, its a job for life, at least one think you can say about SF its Nepotism is not as blatent as the DUP, under its leader for life. Actually aren't Free Presbytarians a break away from Presbytarians who are the same as Hugeonts, Purtitans & Calvinists, I thouht thats why they left the Catholic Church becuase of Nepotism & Omnipitant!!! (excuse the spelling) leaders for life.

[SuperMac]

And as for the South, how ironic that Bertie should judge that his electoral prospects would be much more greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand by the Boyne waters, than e.g. by shaking Adams's hand in somewhere like Bodenstown!

Bertie electoral prospects greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand........Will you ever stop posting on the forum pal. Your living in dreamland, you haven't a clue.

[Donagh]

If a normal political party had an election result like Sinn Fein had there would be calls for Gerry Adams to step down.

How do you figure that? They got 4 seats on the back of 142,500 1st preference votes. Labour got 20 seats on 208,000 1st preference votes. Their 320573 1st preference votes in Ireland this year have solidified their position as the third largest politician party in the country. They also have 4 full ministries in the northern government. Hardly a disastrous few months.

[Donagh]

Election aftermath and the task ahead!
By EOIN Ó BROIN SF Candidate in Dún Laoghaire


There is much I agree with in Mícheál Mac Donncha's election analysis in last week's An Phoblacht. The most important question he asked was why Sinn Féin was not in a better position to weather the storm that was Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's election success.

Much discussion since the count has focused on the smaller parties being squeezed by the presidential-style campaign waged by the two larger parties and the national media.However, while this is certainly the case for the PDs and Independents, for the parties of the left no squeeze occurred. Rather Labour, the Greens and Sinn Féin simply remained stagnant. In our case progress was halted, not simply by a Fianna Fáil fightback, but by weaknesses and limitations in our campaign which with the benefit of hindsight we need to analyse, understand and correct.

Fianna Fáil's gains were at our expense. Across the country, their percentage increases almost matched our decrease constituency for constituency. Our gains in 2004 were primarily at their expense, and our target seats for 2007 likewise.There is little doubt that their party strategists and local organisation understood the nature of the Sinn Féin threat. Fianna Fáil set out to convince these floating republican voters to return to the Fianna Fáil fold through a combination of the Enda Kenny fear factor, anger at the PDs, the rejection of Sinn Féin in government and effective, on-the-ground organisation. The degree to which this strategy succeeded surprised everyone, including Fianna Fáil, but clearly it worked. In effect Fianna Fáil set out to halt and reverse the trend set by Sinn Féin in 2004.

Sinn Féin weren't squeezed by a presidential-style campaign. We were held back by an experienced Fianna Fáil electoral machine that understood its vulnerabilities and responded effectively. That we failed even to notice this in the course of the campaign is a consequence of our own organisational weaknesses and inexperience in the 26 Counties.
It is important to acknowledge the relative size and inexperience of our election machine in the South. It is equally important to grasp that as we grow our understanding of the differences between electoral realities North and South will become clearer.

Our understanding of our electorate in the 26 Counties, both core and potential, is only developing, as is our understanding of how and why they vote in both local and Leinster House elections. The assumption that we can simply translate positive feedback on the doors or previous election results into polling day gains clearly isn't adequate.
In future we need to be more circumspect and more sophisticated in assessing and projecting our core strength and potential growth, and develop our constituency and media campaigns accordingly.

We also need to be mindful that our electoral growth has and continues to be built on slow, gradual, grassroots campaigning and community work. Our dramatic failure to poll well in Dublin Central, let alone win a seat, should be a lesson to us for the future not to deviate from what has worked in the past.
This was the first election in which Sinn Féin fought the public and media battle primarily on the basis of policies. A substantial reduction in negative media coverage coupled with significant progress in the peace process ensured that on television and radio, in the papers and on the doors, we were involved in policy debates about the economy, taxation, health, housing and crime.

On all of these areas we have strong, radical, left-of- centre republican positions. However, we clearly failed to defend these positions effectively. The leaders debate on RTÉ was just one of a number of interviews post Ard Fheis in which senior party spokespersons appeared weak and uncomfortable with our policy positions.
Our attempt to avoid the issue of taxation was seen by the media for what it was: an exercise in evasion. The pre-election abandonment of our policies on corporation tax, capital gains tax and a 50% upper band made us appear inconsistent to many, irrespective of their actual view on the policy.

More importantly, it also alienated left-of-centre voters, who chose instead left independents such as Brid Smyth and Joan Collins, almost costing Aengus Ó Snodaigh his seat.
The centre ground is a crowded political place. Sinn Féin does not belong there and should not be in the business of trading fundamental redistributive policies in the hope of short-term electoral gain. That's a kind of politics that we should leave to Fianna Fáil.

If we want to build an Ireland of equals, we need to be able and willing to explain to the electorate exactly how much this will cost and where the money will come from, including those instances when increased taxes are the most appropriate course of action.

Without trying to spin our way out of what was undoubtedly a bad election, we nonetheless need to find positives from which to build for the future.

Firstly the most important fact of the election must be that the 143,410 people who voted for Sinn Féin on 24 May can now be considered our core vote. That in itself is an important achievement and a solid base to build from.

Secondly, in a number of constituencies our vote increased, most significantly in Donegal. All of this growth bodes well for the upcoming local government elections in two years' time.

Thirdly, for those areas where growth was small or nonexistent it should be a good incentive to focus on the task ahead and immediately return to what we do best: community-based campaigning and radical republican politics.

Finally, and probably most importantly, we need a serious and open debate about the political and economic position that Sinn Féin wants to occupy into the future. Mícheál Mac Donncha was absolutely right when he said in last week's An Phoblacht that 'Sinn Féin is a part of the left in Irish politics.'

To those activists who thought that a shift to the centre would benefit us in this election, I would say that you were proved wrong. Avoiding and then abandoning sound policies in the mouth of an election is bad politics.

Sinn Féin should continue to develop and defend our platform as a radical, left-wing republican party, building Irish unity and an Ireland of equals. Fianna Fáil's success in this election was made in spite of growing public discontent at the quality of public services. The absence of a clear and meaningful alternative was Fine Gael and Labour's weakness. That is the space where Sinn Féin belongs and where our future growth is to be found.

[Swinging Fiona]

If a normal political party had an election result like Sinn Fein had there would be calls for Gerry Adams to step down.

How do you figure that? They got 4 seats on the back of 142,500 1st preference votes. Labour got 20 seats on 208,000 1st preference votes. Their 320573 1st preference votes in Ireland this year have solidified their position as the third largest politician party in the country. They also have 4 full ministries in the northern government. Hardly a disastrous few months.

Sinn Fein then must ask why did they get so few seats from so many votes.
Its a fact that they do not attract transfers unlike Labour and the Greens. If you can't attract transfers,you won't get seats.
Mary Lou Mac Donald was touted as all but elected in Dublin Central but failed.
Sean Crowe lost his seat having topped Dublin SW in 2002.
None of the four TDs returned topped the poll,three did in 2002.
Failed to gain a seat in Donegal or Sligo/Leitrim where they talked themselves up getting three.
The party leader being shot to pieces on national TV in a pre election debate.

Far too much focus on progress made in the north,not enough on real issues in the south.
Until Sinn Fein wake up,they will be nothing more than a protest vote in the south.

[Evil Genius]

And as for the South, how ironic that Bertie should judge that his electoral prospects would be much more greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand by the Boyne waters, than e.g. by shaking Adams's hand in somewhere like Bodenstown!

Bertie electoral prospects greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand........Will you ever stop posting on the forum pal. Your living in dreamland, you haven't a clue.

In the run-up to closely-fought general elections, Party leaders actively seek out every last photo-opportunity which they feel might gain them votes and avoid all those which might cost them votes.
Bertie clearly felt that Paisley on the Boyne was one of the former, otherwise he'd never have agreed to it.
By contrast, he made it quite clear that there would be no smiling photos with Adams, never mind the chance of a coalition government including SF.
Of course, it is just possible that Bertie's judgement on this was wrong; however, I doubt it, since the Election Results demonstrate that he got just about everything else right.

Now remind me again, who's living in dreamland?  

[Evil Genius]

Election aftermath and the task ahead!
By EOIN Ó BROIN SF Candidate in Dún Laoghaire


Sinn Féin should continue to develop and defend our platform as a radical, left-wing republican party, building Irish unity and an Ireland of equals...

...That is the space where Sinn Féin belongs and where our future growth is to be found.

Interesting, even brave*, analysis by Mr. O. Broin.

However, if he's correct in his conclusions (quoted above), then he/SF have got a huge problem.

Namely, there is no evidence that "radical, left-wing" policies hold any great appeal to the electorate in the Republic; if anything, that appeal is diminishing all the time (as it is in other liberal democracies in Western Europe, such as France, Germany and, ahem, the UK).

As for "building Irish unity", SF played that card, for the last time in the forseeable future, when they gave up the guns and signed the GFA. The overwhelming reaction in the ROI was "Good. Now what's for dinner this evening?"

As for "an Ireland of equals", never mind that 26 counties of that Ireland are increasingly becoming less equal (economically, at least) and not overly bothered by it, into the bargain, if the Ireland of Equals envisaged by SF is ever going to come about, it will only do so with the willing co-operation of a million Irish Unionists in NI.

And whatever their appeal to the other people of Ireland, SF are a million miles from securing Unionist agreement for anything they have to offer.


* - "Brave" in his criticism of the present Leadership. I presume Mr. O. Broin is a Southerner, otherwise he might be more aware of Gerry's usual sensitivity to challenges to his leadership. "Internal Security", anyone?   

[Donagh]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

[Silky]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

[Sky Blue]

Lack of Oranges leaves Sinn Féin sucking on a lemon
Newton Emerson

Newton's Optic: Sinn Féin has blamed "a serious shortage of Protestants in the 26 counties" for its poor showing in last week's election.

"Sinn Féin draws its core support from people who can't be relied on to vote," explained Dr Pat Answer, Professor of Advanced Shinnerology at Dublin Sunday Business College.

"They might be too drunk or hung-over on election day, or have a court appearance or a meeting with their parole officer.

"They might have injured themselves by climbing through a kitchen window while carrying a wide-screen television. Or they might simply have lost track of the date because they never go to work.

"Whatever the reason, Sinn Féin voters need to be provoked to the polls and there simply aren't enough Protestants in the Republic to cause the necessary level of antagonism."

The situation is very different in Northern Ireland, where the daily sight of Protestants cutting their perfect hedges, driving their sensible cars and going to church in elaborate hats wedged tightly onto their pointy little heads ensures that Sinn Féin voters are always angry enough to cast a ballot.

Attempts to widen the party's southern appeal beyond its traditional sectarian base may only have made matters worse.

"According to our research, many Sinn Féin voters thought that Mary Lou McDonald was a Protestant," Dr Answer said. "She certainly has that smug look about her. Or at least she certainly did."

Dublin Sunday Business College has defended the wider sociological methodology behind its research, which overestimated Sinn Féin's final tally by a statistically acceptable 300 per cent.

"We were right about the number of people dumb enough to vote for Sinn Féin," Dr Answer said.

"We just forgot that they were lazy as well."

For party activists the question now is where they go from here.

"Well, we can't go back up North," Sinn Féin community outreach negotiator Anne Phoblacht said. "It's full of Protestants."

Developing a separate southern strategy could also prove problematic.

"We warned people on the doorsteps to vote for us or the Protestants would get in," Ms Phoblacht said. "But everyone just laughed because they thought we meant Trevor Sargent."

The Irish Times understands that senior party figures have already discussed the possibility of bringing more Protestants into the Republic. Martin Ferris has agreed to charter a boat and Aengus Ó Snodaigh has offered the use of a van.

"We're mainly interested in people from Nigeria," Ms Phoblacht said. "You can have any Protestants you like as long as they're black."

Experts agree that this is Sinn Féin's only hope for an electoral breakthrough.

"There's no point being sectarian when there aren't any Protestants and no point pretending to be non-sectarian when there aren't any Protestants," Dr Answer explained.

"There's also no point talking about equality when you've no Protestants to be equal to and no point talking about rights when you can't claim that Protestants are infringing your rights.

"So really it's all the Protestants' fault. No wonder people hate those hedge-cutting freaks."

But it's not all bad news for Sinn Féin. The party polled quite well in Border counties due to Northern Ireland's provocative proximity.

"If there had still been some Protestant farmers in the area we might even have won a few seats," Ms Phoblacht said.

"What a pity we killed them."

© 2007 The Irish Times

[Evil Genius]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

MI5 must have upped their payments, then. Or maybe he just found those Northern Bank Twenties too much bloody trouble to change...


Anyhow, any thoughts on my earlier post (at 1.05 pm)?

[twotwocharlie]

FECK THE ELECTIONS. HAS ANYONE A SPARE MAGAZINE FOR AN ARMALITE

[Donagh]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

[SuperMac]

And as for the South, how ironic that Bertie should judge that his electoral prospects would be much more greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand by the Boyne waters, than e.g. by shaking Adams's hand in somewhere like Bodenstown!

Bertie electoral prospects greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand........Will you ever stop posting on the forum pal. Your living in dreamland, you haven't a clue.

In the run-up to closely-fought general elections, Party leaders actively seek out every last photo-opportunity which they feel might gain them votes and avoid all those which might cost them votes.
Bertie clearly felt that Paisley on the Boyne was one of the former, otherwise he'd never have agreed to it.
By contrast, he made it quite clear that there would be no smiling photos with Adams, never mind the chance of a coalition government including SF.
Of course, it is just possible that Bertie's judgement on this was wrong; however, I doubt it, since the Election Results demonstrate that he got just about everything else right.

Now remind me again, who's living in dreamland?  

FF's vote held up because Bertie shook hands with RIP......will ya just stop posting on the forum or kill yourself or something ya fool.

[Evil Genius]

FF's vote held up because Bertie shook hands with RIP......will ya just stop posting on the forum or kill yourself or something ya fool.

That's not what I said.

Now back to class, before the Teacher finds out you're mitching off...