Sinn Fein - Finished in the Republic

[Pietas]

Sinn Fein are in terminal decline as a political force in the Republic of Ireland.

There can be no other cogent analysis of their situation when one considers -

(1) They've put the guns away and gone into government with Paisley in the North

(2) They spent a forturne promoting bright young things such as Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty only to see them trounced at the polls.

(3) Gerry Adams revealed himself as a politician of very little substance during the General Election campaign (McDowell made a monkey out of him during the smaller party's Leader's debate).

If Sinn Fein couldn't make hay down here with all they had going for them in the North then they can forget it.

They didn't, as Adams remarked, get 'squeezed' during the election.  Their vote simply didn't show up and their much vaunted 'machine' was proved to exactly what it is - a myth (south of the border, anyway).

It's one thing to take on the SDLP, quite another to take on FF/FG.

And despite the high turnout in the election, it should be remembered that -

(a) Much of their vote here relies on an electorate just a likely to stay in bed than actually go to the polling station.

(b) They failed to recognise that they were dealing with a far more sophisticated electorate in the south than in the north, where economics/quality of life, and not an emotional connection to history or years of discrimination is the key factor in determining one's first preference vote.

[Gnevin]

Sinn Fein are in terminal decline as a political force in the Republic of Ireland.

There can be no other cogent analysis of their situation when one considers -

(1) They've put the guns away and gone into government with Paisley in the North

(2) They spent a forturne promoting bright young things such as Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty only to see them trounced at the polls.

(3) Gerry Adams revealed himself as a politician of very little substance during the General Election campaign (McDowell made a monkey out of him during the smaller party's Leader's debate).

If Sinn Fein couldn't make hay down here with all they had going for them in the North then they can forget it.

They didn't, as Adams remarked, get 'squeezed' during the election.  Their vote simply didn't show up and their much vaunted 'machine' was proved to exactly what it is - a myth (south of the border, anyway).

It's one thing to take on the SDLP, quite another to take on FF/FG.

And despite the high turnout in the election, it should be remembered that -

(a) Much of their vote here relies on an electorate just a likely to stay in bed than actually go to the polling station.

(b) They failed to recognise that they were dealing with a far more sophisticated electorate in the south than in the north, where economics/quality of life, and not an emotional connection to history or years of discrimination is the key factor in determining one's first preference vote.

No comment on the polticial side of things but you've made huge assumptions and managed to insult a lot of people during that rant

[Pietas]

Yes, I've made assumptions, and possibly people with an affiiliation to Sinn Fein might be insulted.

But would anyone like to disucss the points raised?

[ziggysego]

Sinn Fein's share of the votes increased in the last election. However, it did not translate into seats.

Sure they didn't make the progress they were hoping to make, but to say they're finished.. "Are you havin' a laugh?"

[T Fearon]

Point 1: The 26 county electorate invariably show their stuoidity time after time, continually voting for wnakers like Ahern and Harney, in spite of drastic failures,like Hospital trolleys, no clean water in Galway (Bertie is the Basil Fawlty of Irish politics).

Point 2: Sinn Fein has four seats in the Dail, which is one seat more than Michael Mc Didntdowell has personally and four seats more than the SDLP has (or ever will have in the Dail if they had the balls to stand), and four seats more than any Unionist party could win if they stood for Westminster in any constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.

Point 3: Combining Sinn Fein's votes in elections North and South, makes them a considerable force in Irish Politics. They have traditional heartlands in Kerry, North Dublin and the Border counties. As they develop and make their mark on Northern politics their vote in the 26 counties will only improve drastically unlike any of the other parties who are now at peak appeal in terms of electoral support

[SammyG]

Sinn Fein (and every other NI party) get found out when they have to discuss bread and butter issues, as was seen with Gerry in the debate.

If the answer can't be summed up as 'themmuns did it' then they flounder. Hopefully as things start to move on and we move away from them and us into taxes, hospitals, schools etc we'll start to get a better breed of politicians coming through, to replace the current muppets.

[Colonel Cool]

Just a minor point but Sinn Fein increased their vote by standing more candidates

[Donagh]

SF are far from finished in the South and I'd confidently predict that once they've learnt the lessons from this election and now have the time and space to develop their policies,  they'll become the only left alternative party in the south.

[Swinging Fiona]

Point 1: The 26 county electorate invariably show their stuoidity time after time, continually voting for wnakers like Ahern and Harney, in spite of drastic failures,like Hospital trolleys, no clean water in Galway (Bertie is the Basil Fawlty of Irish politics).

Point 2: Sinn Fein has four seats in the Dail, which is one seat more than Michael Mc Didntdowell has personally and four seats more than the SDLP has (or ever will have in the Dail if they had the balls to stand), and four seats more than any Unionist party could win if they stood for Westminster in any constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.

Point 3: Combining Sinn Fein's votes in elections North and South, makes them a considerable force in Irish Politics. They have traditional heartlands in Kerry, North Dublin and the Border counties. As they develop and make their mark on Northern politics their vote in the 26 counties will only improve drastically unlike any of the other parties who are now at peak appeal in terms of electoral support

1: Get a donkey from a nearby field,throw a tricolour on it and it'll get elected in West Belfast.Very funny for a shinner to call the southern electorate thick.

2: Sinn Fein have four seats in the Dail.Thats one less before the election,and a lot less than 10 to 15 they said they were going to get.

3: Why did their vote in North Kerry, Cavan/Monaghan and Dublin go down if they are heartlands?

[Pietas]

Sinn Fein's vote share increase is directly attributable to to an increased field of candiddates, notably through Jonathon Ó Brien (Cork North Central) Joanne Spain (Dublin Mid-West) and Martin Kenny (Roscommon/Sth Leitrim).

Fianna Fáil voters who might otherwise have switched to Sinn Fein did not, because they don't trust Sinn Fein to run the country.

Anyone here read the Sinn Fein manifesto?  It identified plentry of problems, but failed to put forward one credible solution.

Sinn Fein also did a complete u-turn on corporation tax in a campaign awash with mixed messages.

The upshot of all this is whether or not Sinn Fein does or does not stand for a 32 county socialist republic.

If it does, then it should have said so.

Also, continually focusing on its successess in another jurisdiction to an electorate which hasn't cared for over 30 years is pretty much a waste of time.  Watching candidates in the Republic being baby-sat by MLAs and MEPs is off-putting.

[magickingdom]

Sinn Fein (and every other NI party) get found out when they have to discuss bread and butter issues, as was seen with Gerry in the debate.

If the answer can't be summed up as 'themmuns did it' then they flounder. Hopefully as things start to move on and we move away from them and us into taxes, hospitals, schools etc we'll start to get a better breed of politicians coming through, to replace the current muppets.

that about sums it up pretty well. gerry adams was woeful in the tv debate (on the other side if mcdowell 'won' that a lot of good it did him) and their economic policies are up their hole. there is a 25% left vote in the republic and sf need to get to the right hand side of that spectrum and fast. having said that 7% of the vote in a pr system will usually leave you in a pivitol position. if they had 6 seats instead of 4 i wonder would bertie still ignore them. sf problem remains transfers, there crucial in pr - brady in dublin central got less than 950 votes and gets elected while doherthy (i think) in donegal got over 8000 and didnt get in and that about says it all...

[lynchbhoy]

Sinn Fein also did a complete u-turn on corporation tax in a campaign awash with mixed messages.
The upshot of all this is whether or not Sinn Fein does or does not stand for a 32 county socialist republic.
If it does, then it should have said so.
Also, continually focusing on its successess in another jurisdiction to an electorate which hasn't cared for over 30 years is pretty much a waste of time.  Watching candidates in the Republic being baby-sat by MLAs and MEPs is off-putting.

some amusing comments and your opinion is obv subjective.
SF are a long way off the pace in the south and it will only improve in time - however, they need to get rid of the hoods
that got into the political party. While there are mostly good politicians in the north, the southern candidates are just not the right calibre of people.
OK a lot will represent the same kind of people in their areas, but that is no reason to have them as candidates when some are
under educated and neanderthal (it always amuses me to see lower classes voting for some upper echelon tw*t that only parachutes into a less affluent area
of a constituency at each election time -and spends the rest of the time avoiding such areas!).

My  opinion in answer to some of your opinions would be
1. SF didnt put any guns away - you are confusing them with the IRA , which were and are not the same body of people let alone movement.
SF have def bemused a lot of the IRA fraternity with their recent antics - joining the ruc/psni body and powersharing are just two examples!

2. sf are (like FF and FG) after a 32 county Ireland - but NOT a socialist one. That old marxist cr*p seems to be mostly gone.

3. votes will prob increase as memories of the six counties fade and better sf candidates prove themselves on the ground in local areas.


4. sf will eventually be the same capitalistic party like the rest of the parties in the south - FF, FG, PD etc manifestoes when compared in 12 years time to the
last election manifesto will look like night and day. They wont want to be shown this of course or have it pointed out to them that the part is rapidly and obviously becomming 'mainstream'.

5. Defo SF made themselves look foolish by having Adams hippy like and near retired personna 'debate' against the pirhanas on TV.

I think the likes of the Green party, SF and maybe a new version of the democratic left/PD's are only good for politics here.
We need more diversity and fraud watchers to stop the lethargy and corruption that existed in previous years.

[Fishead_Sam]

Point 1: The 26 county electorate invariably show their stuoidity time after time, continually voting for wnakers like Ahern and Harney, in spite of drastic failures,like Hospital trolleys, no clean water in Galway (Bertie is the Basil Fawlty of Irish politics).

Point 2: Sinn Fein has four seats in the Dail, which is one seat more than Michael Mc Didntdowell has personally and four seats more than the SDLP has (or ever will have in the Dail if they had the balls to stand), and four seats more than any Unionist party could win if they stood for Westminster in any constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.

Point 3: Combining Sinn Fein's votes in elections North and South, makes them a considerable force in Irish Politics. They have traditional heartlands in Kerry, North Dublin and the Border counties. As they develop and make their mark on Northern politics their vote in the 26 counties will only improve drastically unlike any of the other parties who are now at peak appeal in terms of electoral support

Point 1. I agree with you T.Feron

Point 2. SDLP could easily merge with Labour if they came South as that is what they are in the North. Actually Fine Gale, the SDLP & Labour could establish a Social Democratic Party to match FF.
The Unionists win quite alot of seats on the Island of Britain, you may know them as the Conservatives/Tories.
Sein Fein have 4 Seats 2 less than the Greens & less than the Independents.

Point 3.What happens in the North does not have as big an impact on Southern Politics as you may think, most of the people of Munster & Connacht feal we are in a constand struggle with Dublin, while you lot are struggling with London, many a Connachtman would reckon you are lucky not to be hitched to Dublin, it would be great to keep all our Oil & Gas in a Republic of Connacht.
Also Fine Gael made about 30 seat gain now thats a drastic improvement & I reckon we will gain more in the next general election @ Christmas than Sinn Fein will.

Lastly I totally disagree that Sinn Fein are dead, their expectations where far to great & their leader knew too little about the 26 counties and what matters to its people. Sinn Fein needs a Southern Leader who joined SF post this latest agreement, SF also needs to run politicians without paramilitary links or criminal records & trust me watch your vote increase. Also renaming your party would gain you thousands of votes alone. To a vast swade of the Southern Population the word Sinn Fein is a no-no.

In my opinion SF will within an election or 2 reach 8 seats and then sit at that level indefiniatably

[Evil Genius]

Sinn Fein's vote share increase is directly attributable to to an increased field of candiddates, notably through Jonathon Ó Brien (Cork North Central) Joanne Spain (Dublin Mid-West) and Martin Kenny (Roscommon/Sth Leitrim).

Fianna Fáil voters who might otherwise have switched to Sinn Fein did not, because they don't trust Sinn Fein to run the country.

Anyone here read the Sinn Fein manifesto?  It identified plentry of problems, but failed to put forward one credible solution.

Sinn Fein also did a complete u-turn on corporation tax in a campaign awash with mixed messages.

The upshot of all this is whether or not Sinn Fein does or does not stand for a 32 county socialist republic.

If it does, then it should have said so.

Also, continually focusing on its successess in another jurisdiction to an electorate which hasn't cared for over 30 years is pretty much a waste of time.  Watching candidates in the Republic being baby-sat by MLAs and MEPs is off-putting.

That analysis seems pretty accurate to this (admittedly distant) observer.

However, if only from a Northern perspective, I would qualify the part I've highlighted.

Frankly, for the last 40-odd years (if not its entire existence), SF has been a single-issue party i.e. Brits Out/Smash Partition. Whilst they pursued this by paramilitary means, this limited the amount of electoral support they could get in NI and alienated all but a tiny minority in ROI.

When they realised that the "armed struggle" simply wasn't going to work, they switched to an electoral strategy. This increased their appeal in NI, especially when they persuaded Northern Nats that they could "deliver". However, the problem for them in NI is that their appeal remains strictly limited, for two reasons. First, 55% of the electorate would chew their own arm off before they would ever vote SF. Second, if/when the other 45% should ever conclude that SF isn't actually able to deliver a UI, then support, at least from amongst those for whom this is a crucial issue, is liable to wane and they will find the challenge of the SDLP etc, campaigning on more "bread and butter" issues, may be revitalised.

As for the ROI, increasingly the electorate down there appears to be saying that when it comes to actually casting their vote in an election, they don't actually give a damn about a UI, even where negotiated by normal democratic means. Instead, they are concerned with the issues which affect them on a day-to-day basis.

As such, SF's "Unique Selling Proposition" of being the only all-Ireland political party cuts no ice, since "All politics is local" (as somebody once said). Therefore, if SF is to build a widespread political base in the ROI, it has first to establish a clear political identity on socio-economic issues, then it has to sell it to the electorate.

Regarding the former, its problem is that if it is to appeal to the widest possible constituency, it effectively needs to adopt a centre-right stance and even if it were willing/able to do so, it would be elbowing for room in a very crowded field. Alternatively, if it sticks to its present (ill-defined) left-wing/anti-EU stance, it may have the field to itself, but its also likely to be an empty one!
And whichever stance it takes, it still leaves the (latter) problem i.e. their ability to sell themselves to the Southern electorate. In doing so, they will find that the Southern parties etc haven't exactly been asleep for the last 80-odd years when it comes to constructing their respective political campaigning machines. Futher, SF might find that the methods which they have successfully employed in NI over the last 40 years may not be quite so "acceptable" in the other "Three Green Fields" as they were in the "Fourth"!

They're between a rock and a hard place: Carry on campaigning on an issue - the Border - which is effectively settled (and not to their satisfaction), or, start afresh to campaign on issues where their rivals have had an 80 year start.

You know, if he only had the wit to know it, the oul bigot Paisley should be pissing himself! After 30 years of shouting from the outside how he was going to "Smash SF" (entirely without success), he now finds that by embracing them on the inside, he may actually be able to smother them in their very Northern heartland!

And as for the South, how ironic that Bertie should judge that his electoral prospects would be much more greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand by the Boyne waters, than e.g. by shaking Adams's hand in somewhere like Bodenstown!

Over to you, Donagh!  

[Swinging Fiona]

If a normal political party had an election result like Sinn Fein had there would be calls for Gerry Adams to step down.

But Sinn Fein are not a normal political party.