Nolan Show

[Eamonnca1]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

[Eire90]

The most boring show in the country

[snoopdog]

A border poll in the near future will fail and set a UI ba k another 30 years. The big questions of health pensions etc need to be answered. Although the NHS is a shadow of what it used to be.

[trueblue1234]

A border poll in the near future will fail and set a UI ba k another 30 years. The big questions of health pensions etc need to be answered. Although the NHS is a shadow of what it used to be.

Can I ask why this would be the case? Genuinely, as I've seen it mentioned a few times. If a border poll was to show that there was a increasing desire for a UI, (And I think Brexit will have certainly increased this imo). Even if it failed, why would that be viewed negatively? I think if there is increasing will and we are moving towards a majority favouring it, then surely that will be the catalyst for more work to be done into the practicalities of such. Which in itself will start to help people understand how it would work.
Just to be clear here, I don't think it should be pushed now, nor is one needed for a few years. But I can't understand how, if a border poll demonstrated even a slightly increased desire for a UI, then why would it be viewed negatively?

[Snapchap]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

[marty34]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

What's your prediction Snapchat on the election?

A few weeks out obviously but what's your take on things currently?

SF do well to hold on the the 3rd seat in a couple of places? Any gains?

[Snapchap]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

What's your prediction Snapchat on the election?

A few weeks out obviously but what's your take on things currently?

SF do well to hold on the the 3rd seat in a couple of places? Any gains?

Confident enough that SF will come out as the largest party, but in all likelihood will have a reduced number of seats - their 2017 result was exceptionally good (many seemed to rally to them on the back of the RHI scandal and Martin McGuinness' illness). To expect them to reach the same heights again is probably unrealistic. Their loses could come in any number of constituencies:
- Their second seat in Foyle
- Their third in West Tyrone
- Their third seat in Fermanagh/South Tyrone
- Their sole seat in North Antrim
- Their third seat in Newry & Armagh
- They are also going to be under pressure to hold onto seats in North, South and West Belfast.

They won't lose seats in all, but could lose out in 3 or four. I'd guess they'll come in at 23/24 seats. I think everyone is expecting a very strong performance from Alliance. The battle for fourth place will no doubt be between UUP and SDLP, and Alliance transfers will have a big bearing on that. Doug Beattie is really trying to push his party closer to Alliance style unionism that to DUP style unionism, so it will be close. I think the SDLP probaly will get enough to finish fourth place, but they could slide back into fifth. Which symbolically, would be some hit for them to take.

Ultimately though, I don't think Stormont will be back functioning in the event of SF being the largest party. The DUP are intent on wrecking the GFA. To expect them to work within it as a second placed party to SF - I just can't imagine it.

[Eamonnca1]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

Oh I'm aware that they've toned it down a bit in the last few days for election purposes, but as soon as the election's over you know as well as I do they'll be back to beating that drum again.

[Eamonnca1]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

What's your prediction Snapchat on the election?

A few weeks out obviously but what's your take on things currently?

SF do well to hold on the the 3rd seat in a couple of places? Any gains?

Confident enough that SF will come out as the largest party, but in all likelihood will have a reduced number of seats - their 2017 result was exceptionally good (many seemed to rally to them on the back of the RHI scandal and Martin McGuinness' illness). To expect them to reach the same heights again is probably unrealistic. Their loses could come in any number of constituencies:
- Their second seat in Foyle
- Their third in West Tyrone
- Their third seat in Fermanagh/South Tyrone
- Their sole seat in North Antrim
- Their third seat in Newry & Armagh
- They are also going to be under pressure to hold onto seats in North, South and West Belfast.

They won't lose seats in all, but could lose out in 3 or four. I'd guess they'll come in at 23/24 seats. I think everyone is expecting a very strong performance from Alliance. The battle for fourth place will no doubt be between UUP and SDLP, and Alliance transfers will have a big bearing on that. Doug Beattie is really trying to push his party closer to Alliance style unionism that to DUP style unionism, so it will be close. I think the SDLP probaly will get enough to finish fourth place, but they could slide back into fifth. Which symbolically, would be some hit for them to take.

Ultimately though, I don't think Stormont will be back functioning in the event of SF being the largest party. The DUP are intent on wrecking the GFA. To expect them to work within it as a second placed party to SF - I just can't imagine it.

It'll be interesting to see how Beattie's strategy works out. He might be looking to pick up Alliance transfers if there's an Alliance surge. The likes of Bryson branding the Alliance as "nasty" smacks of desperation and fear that APNI are onto something.

[Snapchap]

All this talk about a border poll. It's a bit far down the list of things that need to happen between now and a united Ireland. SF have been pushing for it because it gets the base excited. DUP push the fear of it because it energises their base. Both sides know that if it were to happen tomorrow there wouldn't be a majority for a UI. You'd be looking at 45% in favour at the most.

Third time in as many days on this board that I've had to point out that SF are not asking for a border poll to be held at this stage. A poll down the line is inevitable. SF are merely asking for the planning for it to start, in particular from the southern government.

Oh I'm aware that they've toned it down a bit in the last few days for election purposes, but as soon as the election's over you know as well as I do they'll be back to beating that drum again.

In the last few days? They haven't at any stage been asking for a poll to happen imminently. What they have been saying in the last few days is precisely what they have been saying for several years now: start the planning now. What's happened in the last few days is the DUP have been trying to scaremongering unionism that SF are pushing for a border poll. Surely you aren't falling for tactics the DUP use to energise the Unionist base?

[Snapchap]

It'll be interesting to see how Beattie's strategy works out. He might be looking to pick up Alliance transfers if there's an Alliance surge. The likes of Bryson branding the Alliance as "nasty" smacks of desperation and fear that APNI are onto something.

That's precisely what he's doing. His problem though, is that he's trying to ride two horses. Appealing to Alliance voters by trying to appear moderate, but still pandering to the extremes of loyalism by refusing to commit to working alongside a SF First Minister and trying to out-DUP the DUP in terms of antipathy towards the Irish Language/Acht na Gaeilge. Noteworthy that within a week or two of him becoming party leader, he was at the side of the road matching balaclava clad UVF members take part in an anti-protocol band parade. "Moderate Doug" is an act.

[Sportacus]

Nolan is on Radio 5 Live now, Friday night half-ten.  Pure greed.

[Milltown Row2]

Nolan is on Radio 5 Live now, Friday night half-ten.  Pure greed.

He's been on radio 5 live for years

[charlieTully]

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/the-nolan-show-dominates-the-north-s-airwaves-but-is-it-hard-hitting-or-just-hardline-1.4848316

[Main Street]

That Nolan article is hidden behind a paywall, probably where Nolan should be hidden as well.