Brexit.

[weareros]

Marty34 wrote:
"The next question is what are Dublin government doing to re-unite Ireland?  Not much I reckon."
The Dublin Gov are never going to be jingoistic about this as it will still need some Unionist support and to be as peaceful a transition as possible, which jingoism will not help. Someone wrote earlier: unification by regulation. That's already happening and the next piece of the jigsaw will be the backstop and an effective border in the Irish Sea. The Dublin gov has already ensured with the support of all member states that NI will be fast tracked into full EU membership; in contrast an independent Scotland would not get that. Many things from tourism to energy are already regulated. When the day comes that a border poll is passed, it should have minimal disruption in people's lives. That is the most important thing Dublin gov can be doing. It's not visible Fior Gael stuff though the DUP might beg to differ if they understood the native tongue.

[Rossfan]

The "Dublin Government" can't do a lot about re uniting Ireland.
However the Nationalist Parties and the 26 Co ones could develop a draft blueprint as to what type of new All Ireland State they'd envisage.
Meanwhile SF should make Foster an honorary vice President for her services to Irish Nationalism.

[LCohen]

I know Tusk must be seething underneath but jeez does this not play into Brexiteers hands!

Wee Sammy Wilson has his speak.

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1093126875524878336

The usual 'no surrender' crap that he comes out with.

At least now he's taking it international and the rest of the world can see what we've had to put up with I suppose. 

Yes but whenever brexit is done with, Europe and Britain will forget all about the DUP and sammy and co will crawl back to the north and continue to spout their bigotry. And we'll continue to have to put up with them. And nothing will ever change.

The demographics are only going one way

https://www.ft.com/content/7d5244a0-f22d-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

There could even be an overall catholic majority by the time of the next census which is only 2 years away in 2021, certainly it will be nearing an equal split. That is no guarantee that a border poll could be won but I think it is a definite possibility within the next 10/15 years given the moving demographics. That last census poll is 8 years old which means that in each 10 year age category up to mid 40's there is now a catholic majority. That is no guarantee of winning a border poll but I feel that a no deal Brexit would be a game changer in that respect for those in the middle.

I don't think it is sensible to be calling for a poll until the outcome of Brexit is settled but pre Brexit it was only a distant pipe dream for most nationalists, at least certainly a generation away. The DUP backed the wrong horse from the outset.

While Brexit has certainly played a massive part in the change of attitude, it's not the only factor. The DUP under Foster has literally attempted to rub the noses of nationalists/republicans in the dirt. A friend who knows a leading light in the north's business fraternity told him they had been in conversation with several DUP members who were actually shocked by how bitter Foster really is. The Shinners only grew a set and brought Stormont down because their own voters let it be known in no uncertain terms that enough was enough. Yet still the Shinners were prepared to bend the knee with the wishy-washy agreement they made to re-establish Stormont, only for Foster to stab them in the back again and renege on it after both the UDA and Orange Order let her know it was unacceptable. Foster has done more to advance Irish unity than Ian Paisley ever did, and she's done more to ensure that Stormont will never sit again. Credit where it's due... well done Arlene

Stomont, in a government way is gone forever.  Nationals are now looking towards Dublin and a new type of Ireland.

The DUP had there chance and blew it with bigotry.  The straw that broke the camel's back was the Liofa funding granr being taken away.  That was that - party over.

The next question is what are Dublin government doing to re-unite Ireland?  Not much I reckon.  Going by the big nationalist gathering in The Waterfront Hall a few weeks ago, they, the Dublin government, are well out of touch with northern nationalists.

Only positive thing is that now they know how bigoted and difficult the DUP are!!

Stormont is here to stay. It can stay and be functional or stay and be dysfunctional. So on the basis that it stays and we run elections and elect MLAs it's about time they did something for the money.

[LCohen]

I know Tusk must be seething underneath but jeez does this not play into Brexiteers hands!

Wee Sammy Wilson has his speak.

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1093126875524878336

The usual 'no surrender' crap that he comes out with.

At least now he's taking it international and the rest of the world can see what we've had to put up with I suppose. 

Yes but whenever brexit is done with, Europe and Britain will forget all about the DUP and sammy and co will crawl back to the north and continue to spout their bigotry. And we'll continue to have to put up with them. And nothing will ever change.

The demographics are only going one way

https://www.ft.com/content/7d5244a0-f22d-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

There could even be an overall catholic majority by the time of the next census which is only 2 years away in 2021, certainly it will be nearing an equal split. That is no guarantee that a border poll could be won but I think it is a definite possibility within the next 10/15 years given the moving demographics. That last census poll is 8 years old which means that in each 10 year age category up to mid 40's there is now a catholic majority. That is no guarantee of winning a border poll but I feel that a no deal Brexit would be a game changer in that respect for those in the middle.

I don't think it is sensible to be calling for a poll until the outcome of Brexit is settled but pre Brexit it was only a distant pipe dream for most nationalists, at least certainly a generation away. The DUP backed the wrong horse from the outset.

Would Northern Nationalism risk a northern poll unless they were certain that the southern referendum would vote to accept a United Ireland. It still boils down to economics and how exactly does Brexit make NI more affordable to RoI??

[Milltown Row2]

Ffs! Couldn't agree on a brexit strategy or plan for any eventuality, do you actually think the brains are here to work out a UI.. reality check lads.. not in our lifetime (I wish it would).. it will happen but you'll get knocked back, just like the Scots did.. and it may take numerous referendums..

But I'll not see it. The romantic view is it will great, but the practical outcome won't be

[BennyCake]

Nationalists would be put off a UI in a vote, the same as the Scots were. Given a dysfunctional Stormont, in the uk but with peace, most would take that, rather than the alternative - worth off and the Troubles recommending.

[Harold Disgracey]

In case you were unaware that Theresa May is a two-faced duplicitous ****.

Daniel Holder, Deputy Director of CAJ, stated: "Yesterday the Prime Minister told the Home Office to review the way it has been treating Northern Ireland-born Irish citizens as British in order to deny them EU rights that flow from being Irish citizens in part of the UK.

"At the same time you have a Home Office Minister implying she will refuse Northern Ireland-born Irish citizens the right to apply to retain EU rights under the settlement scheme on the grounds they are really British. This is the same Home Office Minister who notoriously had not read the Good Friday Agreement, and it shows. Her position makes a mockery of the Agreement's pledge that it is the 'birth right' of people born in the North to be accepted as Irish or British (or both).

https://caj.org.uk/2019/02/06/press-statement-ni-born-irish-citizens-not-entitled-to-apply-to-retain-eu-rights/

[RadioGAAGAA]

In case you were unaware that Theresa May is a two-faced duplicitous ****.

Oh, no, I was aware all right!

Yet another example of why the backstop must be cast iron legally.

[imtommygunn]

Sammy blowing his top again today. The eu are corrupt he says. They are some craic. Calling out other people on transparency, sectarianism, bigotry and now corruption. I wonder do they have a bingo checklist.

Never thought of the roaming thing. That would not be good.

[armaghniac]

Would Northern Nationalism risk a northern poll unless they were certain that the southern referendum would vote to accept a United Ireland. It still boils down to economics and how exactly does Brexit make NI more affordable to RoI??

Brexit creates a cost of not having a United Ireland.

[manfromdelmonte]

I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

[Harold Disgracey]

I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

Take it down from the mast.....

[Crete Boom]

I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

Has anybody costed what a United Ireland would cost? People will say the British subvention,NHS cost etc.. but why should we have to adopt the British model of subvention and I am sure there is somebody on here with the expertise to explain the potential savings from the end of duplication of services and the ending of different tax regimes along with the huge social and confidence boost of being one country for the first time in 100 years!! Throw in EU reunification funds and development funds I am sure we it would be possible to mitigate against potential costs!! Personally I would happily take a hit in my pocket for the social boost to all of us if we could finally live together on this Island and I am sure there were probably plenty of potential economic arguments for my Grandfather to consider in 1916 for him and his family but he chose independence and when you look at Brexit I am delighted he did decide to fight!!!

[yellowcard]

I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

That's part of what we're up against, the I'm alright jack attitude and it does exist a lot in post Celtic tiger Ireland where a lot of people have short memories as to how they gained their independence.

And that's without even entering the debate about exactly what it might cost or looking at the opportunities it might bring.

[yellowcard]

I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

Has anybody costed what a United Ireland would cost? People will say the British subvention,NHS cost etc.. but why should we have to adopt the British model of subvention and I am sure there is somebody on here with the expertise to explain the potential savings from the end of duplication of services and the ending of different tax regimes along with the huge social and confidence boost of being one country for the first time in 100 years!! Throw in EU reunification funds and development funds I am sure we it would be possible to mitigate against potential costs!! Personally I would happily take a hit in my pocket for the social boost to all of us if we could finally live together on this Island and I am sure there were probably plenty of potential economic arguments for my Grandfather to consider in 1916 for him and his family but he chose independence and when you look at Brexit I am delighted he did decide to fight!!!

https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf