Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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seafoid

Quote from: trileacman on September 12, 2019, 11:05:35 PM
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.
The polls are very volatile at the moment and based on the assumption that No Deal is in the public interest.
25% of Brits think no deal means no change
There is a reason why Leadsom wouldn't discuss Yellowhammer on TV
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

RadioGAAGAA

Big Phil Hogan appointed as trade commissioner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49663525

That's who the UK would be negotiating their trade agreement with.

i usse an speelchekor

johnnycool

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on September 13, 2019, 11:40:26 AM
Big Phil Hogan appointed as trade commissioner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49663525

That's who the UK would be negotiating their trade agreement with.


Who says those Europeans don't have a sense of humour!

Rossfan

Love to see him taking a camán to tr**p and Bozo😁
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

johnnycool

Quote from: Rossfan on September 13, 2019, 12:31:06 PM
Love to see him taking a camán to tr**p and Bozo😁

If he's anything like Richie he'll not be a bit afraid to break some ash  ;D

Main Street

Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2019, 07:45:07 AM
Quote from: trileacman on September 12, 2019, 11:05:35 PM
Yellowhammer release favours the Brexiters cause and election chances post no-deal. In the event of a no-deal the British and EU will fudge together short term solutions to alleviate the worst impacts of a no-deal. That's stated policy at the border in Ireland as agreed by both sides and I know that the Irish government has insisted to it's customs staff that port disruptions be kept to the absolute minimum in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd imagine there's a reciprocal arrangement at Calais and Rotterdam because, lets be honest, who the f**k wants to create, and deal with, carnage.

The food and medicine disruption will also be much less pronounced than I currently think is being promised by the Remain faction. Yes there'll be shortages in Botox and viagra but between stockpiling and alternative suppliers there'll be enough of the vital ingredients of a health service to stumble along unknowingly for a while. With a Health service as f**king poorly run as the British what average punter will hardly notice it's 20% shitter and costing 30% more. Likewise whilst we'll struggle to stock courgetes and avacados their be enough Ham, Cheese, milk and bread that people will actually notice f**k all of a daily difference to their meals.

All in, the Brexit doomsday scenario will not unfold in the foretold carnage unless the EU collectively decide to make things as difficult as possible, as quick as possible, for the British. I don't see a historically non-confrontational EU upping the ante here on the Brits given that they can slowly bleed the Brit economy to death with a harsh tarriff regime and shit trade deals over the next decades. That's the favoured payback of the Eurocrats (see Greece/Russia).

So if Boris forces a no deal, mitigates the effects as best as possible and gets a December/January election I think his solid polling position (which all the mainstream media are ignoring BTW -14 points is a f**king chasm in a FPTP system) will be bolstered as he consolidates his conservative base and wins over the pro-brexit Labour voters in the North of England. I think the Remainers are over playing their hand and Boris can very easily frame the commons defeat/ lost court cases as a blow in the "people v parliament" war. He and Cummins are framing it as such already. Additionally he's a big personality and has been for some years in British politics. All the ballsing about on pitches and ziplines can be portrayed as lovable hijinks and tomfoolery, further adding to his election appeal.

Now I hate the Tories more than anyone here but the polling numbers just don't lie and I'm not one bit happy about how the opposition in parliament and in the media are running this. I fear it's playing into his hands and unfortunately I think were looking at least a 2-3 year premiership for Bojo the bollix.
The polls are very volatile at the moment and based on the assumption that No Deal is in the public interest.
25% of Brits think no deal means no change
There is a reason why Leadsom wouldn't discuss Yellowhammer on TV
There is also a reason why 25% of Brits  think no deal means no change, they don't listen to discussions about Brexit and not on tv.

screenexile

The Lib Dems fairly fucked that up didn't they... Did someone from the party not get an advanced copy of the speech to make sure it wasn't the basis for every reason people voted to leave??

f**king idiots everywhere with this shit it's doing my head in!!

RadioGAAGAA

#8242
Quote from: Main Street on September 13, 2019, 04:30:14 PM
There is also a reason why 25% of Brits  think no deal means no change, they don't listen to discussions about Brexit and not on tv.

It's 'cos they're farking stupid guv... innit.


Stupid people getting manipulated. Shocker.
i usse an speelchekor

Rossfan

I see Bozo turned up in Brussels empty handed.
Then dodged Press conferences "because of hecklers"
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

RadioGAAGAA

#8244
Quote from: Rossfan on September 16, 2019, 05:43:06 PM
I see Bozo turned up in Brussels empty handed.
Then dodged Press conferences "because of hecklers"

They are reverting to type.

The 'ol gunboat has been painted, the worst of the dents taken out and is now proudly flying the fleg for the Brit's version of diplomatic negotiation with Johnny Foreigner.

Although they don't seem to realise, someone has swiped the guns from the boat - so all they are left with is tired old rhetoric and chest thumping (economic) belligerence.


i usse an speelchekor

johnnycool

Quote from: Rossfan on September 16, 2019, 05:43:06 PM
I see Bozo turned up in Brussels empty handed.
Then dodged Press conferences "because of hecklers"

And those hecklers were British Expats, not even Johnny Foreigners...


Rossfan

Be great craic if all those British migrants in EU Countries were sent home on 1st November and told to apply to the relevant Embassies in London for permission to return ;D
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

sensethetone

Quote from: Rossfan on September 16, 2019, 05:43:06 PM
I see Bozo turned up in Brussels empty handed.
Then dodged Press conferences "because of hecklers"
Wouldn't do the TV debate when running for PM. Cowardly enough.

seafoid

It looks like Johnson has painted himself into a corner and that he won't be able to get a deal and won't be allowed leave without one
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Dougal Maguire

It's quite funny in a way. His post 'coronation' bluster about not meeting other EU leaders or the EU, like all his other lies, has been blown wide open
Careful now