Brexit.

[seafoid]

https://twitter.com/thatginamiller/status/1187389161029943303

[Eamonnca1]

Unfortunately an Election will give Tories a huge majority, Brexit party will do feck all, and Libs and Greens will spilt Labour - Boris will get his way maybe not by Oct 31st but by Christmas.

Not a chance.

My guess for the election outcome:

Remainer Tory voters to defect to the Lib Dems or Labour depending on who's likely to win certain seats.

Lib Dems to surge as soon as Jo Swinson gets a word in edgewise in the TV debate(s) (same as the Nick Clegg effect in 2010).

SNP to mop up just about anything that's left in Scotland and insist on Indyref II as a condition for joining any coalition. All remainer parties will demand Brexitref II as a condition for any coalition support, with voters given a choice between the latest Withdrawal Agreement and Remain.

Hung parliament, possibly with Tories as the largest party but not by much.

If remainer parties do an electoral pact then the Tories are finished, but I couldn't see that happening. 

BrexitRef II results in a pro-Remain vote by about 55% to 60%.

Scotland's Indyref II outcome depends on what happens with Brexit. If Brexit goes ahead, England can kiss Scotland goodbye. If Brexit is canceled, Indyref II could be too close to call.  As for Wales, I couldn't see support for independence getting much above 20%. The highest it gets in polls is 33% and that's predicated on it happening in the event of Brexit.

[bennydorano]

I think Jo Swinson is just awful tbh. Piers Morgan tweeted something a while back and it was so on the money - something along the lines of the people who vehemently proclaim how Liberal they are are in fact the least tolerant of other people's views. That applies 100% to Swinson imo. Gobshite and all that Morgan can be I think he really has a point with intolerant Liberals (I'm sure he might not be first to have said it).

[t_mac]

I think Jo Swinson is just awful tbh. Piers Morgan tweeted something a while back and it was so on the money - something along the lines of the people who vehemently proclaim how Liberal they are are in fact the least tolerant of other people's views. That applies 100% to Swinson imo. Gobshite and all that Morgan can be I think he really has a point with intolerant Liberals (I'm sure he's might be first to say it).

+1 A completely self indulgent individual, I hope she gets tanked at the polls.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Watching brexit top table on iplayer. f**k me its bad everyone shouting over each other. Mccallion from SF is brutal could they not have sent someone on with some sense.

[Eamonnca1]

I think Jo Swinson is just awful tbh. Piers Morgan tweeted something a while back and it was so on the money - something along the lines of the people who vehemently proclaim how Liberal they are are in fact the least tolerant of other people's views. That applies 100% to Swinson imo. Gobshite and all that Morgan can be I think he really has a point with intolerant Liberals (I'm sure he might not be first to have said it).

Well if Piers Morgan said it then it must be true.

[t_mac]

Watching brexit top table on iplayer. f**k me its bad everyone shouting over each other. Mccallion from SF is brutal could they not have sent someone on with some sense.

Is there one from Shinners?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Watching brexit top table on iplayer. f**k me its bad everyone shouting over each other. Mccallion from SF is brutal could they not have sent someone on with some sense.

Is there one from Shinners?

Mccallion like a banshee

[screenexile]

I thought there was some kind of masterplan in No. 10??

Coming out this morning saying the Government will "go on strike" is not exactly the sharpest thinking!!!

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/25/treasury-says-has-paused-production-brexit-50p-coins-missed/

[mouview]

In spite of the mini-euphoria and popularity-boost (because a border was to be avoided) that has occurred since the Taoiseach and BJ came up with a compromise deal, it may come to be seen in time that it wasn't really Varadkar's finest hour. In reality, it is not a good deal for Ireland as it could still result in a No-Deal default at the end of 2020. The UK has to make up it's mind by mid-next year if they want to extend the transition period, even though Phil Hogan may not even have fully selected his negotiating team by then.

Though a huge gamble to take, it may have paid off if Varadkar/EU let the October 31st date expire without a deal, as the Benn Act would kick in and BJ would be bound to it, no matter what he said to the contrary. This would surely have brought a 2nd ref. closer than where it is now.

[omaghjoe]

I agree that its probably not a good deal for Ireland esp NI. For the reason you mentioned and also these custom checks between Britain will definitely curtail commerce.

Tho the Benn Act did kick in and I dont see how it would bring ref2 about any quicker.

[Farrandeelin]

It seems that is why some ERG were on board with it. No deal through the back door.

[lurganblue]

Another extension until 31st January then.  This surely means that there will be a general election in the mean time.

[t_mac]

Another extension until 31st January then.  This surely means that there will be a general election in the mean time.

Swinson - I will be next PM my hole, looks like she is going make sure of it.