China Coronavirus

[Smurfy123]

Where has anyone said open al up?

Me thinks to many people on this board happy with the home comforts

Milltown and the boys don't want to take the slippers on just yet

Schools returning in England on March 8th. No excuse why Northern Ireland should not open on ye same date

[sid waddell]

Very good thread by Deepti Gurdasani

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Am going to talk about my experience with media bias around discussions of zero COVID & how this is shaping our COVID strategy. I've encountered this again & again. Am also going to speak about why it's important we consider elimination from an evidence based perspective. Thread.

Yesterday I was contacted by a prominent BBC programme to speak about strategy for exit from lockdown & the role of scientists & politicians in defining this. I outlined elimination as a preferred strategy and provided factual arguments to support this on being challenged.

I was told this was 'interesting', but later told me the programme had moved in a different direction (not on zero covid). This has happened to me before. I watched the show- it was clear that the same issues were discussed *except* elimination was not considered at all.

I know the direction was the same also because the same person from govt who I was supposed to 'debate' with was on the programme too, but just debating with a different expert. This wasn't the first time this had happened with the same programme.

I did another (different) interview on the BBC last night, where I was told that elimination was not a possible option by the presenter - and similarly challenged about this again by a presenter on the LBC this morning. I will address the arguments around this later in the thread

There is media bias around discussing an elimination strategy- which is considered 'unrealistic' or not possible in the UK- where the rhetoric from govt & its advisors has been 'acceptable deaths' or 'living with it'. And this is hugely impacting conversations around UK strategy

These ideas are prominently platformed and discussed on the media, and discussions around elimination tend to be shut down. This is despite world-leading scientists, including @IndependentSage having repeatedly advocated for this approach, and this approach being tried & tested.

So let's have the discussion I was hoping to have yesterday on long-term strategy for COVID-19 in the UK. As I see it, there are two routes (not mutually exclusive).
1. Elimination through multi-pronged measures
2. Immunity through vaccination - accept 'tolerable' cases & deaths

Let's look at each of these. Let's look at 1. first - this strategy would require restrictions to be in place to bring cases down to very low levels (<10/100K) before easing restrictions. During this period, we would need to reform our broken Test, trace, isolate & support system

Duration of restrictions? From current levels, at an R=0.8, it would take 2-3 mnths to reach this target. If we improve current measures (better support for isolation, improved masking policies, mitigation in schools), this period could be reduced significantly, by reducing R.

What do we need to do during this period? Need to fix our test, trace, isolate system (put it in the hands of the NHS where its performance for complex cases has been excellent). Support with isolation. Improve safety measures in schools. Managed quarantine for 14 days at borders

Once we come out of lockdown, our test, trace & isolate system will need to rapidly identify any cases that arise, and take urgent measures to trace contacts, isolate, and stop spread into the community.

Additional protections e.g. mask use, distancing in some settings will continue until we have no outbreaks for a period of time, when life can return to normal. We will continue vaccinating people so they are protected in case community transmission occurs.

We will need continued border quarantine restrictions, like NZ & Australia which have been quite effective in preventing re-introduction of infection. When this does occur, it will need a quick & aggressive response.

This approach is associated with generally lower uncertainty because:
1. We've seen this be achieved in other countries.
2. It will require a defined duration of measures, but life will return to near-normal.
3. Less uncertainty around vaccine strategy
e.g. we wouldn't have to consider deviations from vaccine protocol, as vaccines are a pre-emptive measure, rather than carrying out vaccine roll-out in the midst of an overwhelmed health system.
4. Less uncertainty around evolution of new variants, and impact on vaccine efficacy

Let's look at 2. now - trying to achieve herd immunity or at least less severe illness in the majority of the population through vaccination.

While vaccines are central to any pandemic strategy, there are many unknowns with an approach that focuses solely or mostly on vaccines.

1. While vaccines confer protection against severe disease, & symptomatic infection, we don't know the extent to which they reduce transmission.
2. Even with full uptake of vaccines in eligible (not trialled in children yet), no guarantee of reaching the herd immunity threshold
3. The virus may be a moving target with the rapid evolution we are seeing at the moment, with mutations that make vaccines less effective, at least in preventing symptomatic infection. This means we may never reach elimination with vaccines.
4. Even without escape mutations, just with more transmissible strains, the herd immunity threshold (the proportion of the population that needs to be vaccinated to bring R below 1) will be higher. More transmissible new variants could push this even further.
5. We don't know the duration of immunity conferred by vaccination, which may mean frequent boosters are needed to top this up, or against new variants - we will need a high uptake of these across the population
6. We don't know the impact of vaccination in preventing long COVID
7. There is significant vaccine hesitancy in groups who are most at risk for many legitimate reasons, including structural discrimination which is not just historic but has continued throughout the pandemic. While uptake has been high in vulnerable groups, this may not generalise

Worth remembering Manaus where the majority of the population was exposed to virus, but we are still seeing surges of cases that are overwhelming healthcare capacity, with R well above 1. This could be the impact of a new variant escaping immune responses to previous variants

Or it could mean a higher herd immunity threshold than we anticipated, or that the duration of immunity conferred by infection is lower than we previously thought. Either way, it's clear that achieving elimination through this approach may not be as straightforward as we think.

Even if we could achieve herd immunity through vaccination, what is the cost of transmission after easing lockdown going to be, while only part of the population (albeit some of the most vulnerable) are vaccinated?

While it may seem counterintuitive, the cost is still huge.

A SAGE/Imperial model which examined release of restrictions gradually from March alongside vaccine roll out showed that even in the most optimistic scenario, this could lead to between 82,000 and 150,000 deaths. Model here:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl...

How is this possible?

Many reasons.
1. A single dose of vaccines in the over 70s will not provide absolute protection even for them.
2. Many deaths occur in people under 70 yrs
3. Roll-out and immunity post-roll out take time to develop

Exponential rises in cases can rapidly lead to high numbers of deaths even while vaccine roll-out continues.

While the model focuses on deaths, the impact on long COVID numbers would also be large - given case numbers & transmission would be high.

Further, high levels of transmission continuing alongside vaccination mean greater potential for virus adaptation. Escape mutations have arisen in the UK, even when population-wide immunity wasn't at high levels. With more selection pressure we should expect more adaptation.

We currently have at least three different variants with the E484K escape mutation circulating within the UK. We've been told that these are not likely to become dominant any time soon- but if these escape vaccines better than the original B117, they may become more frequent.

While we may be able to update vaccines, this will take time, and as we've seen from the data, high levels of transmission even over short periods of time with a partially protected population can have huge consequences.

And there are no guarantees will we be able to keep up with virus evolution. It's possible by the time we have vaccines against these variants, more may have evolved, if we allow adaptation to continue (by allowing high levels of transmission to continue).

So what about the 'downsides' of elimination that we keep hearing about?

'But we will need to have travel restrictions indefinitely'

Response: But we have travel restrictions in place now - and will likely need them to be in place for a long time because of new variants. Not least because we have new variants within the UK, that many countries across the world are worried about importing.

It is likely we will need strict managed quarantines, but we will likely need these even in scenario 2.

And we're an island, so in some ways easier

'We can't do this - the UK is a travel hub- we can't have restrictions for so long'

Response: We've been in restrictions and in an out of lockdowns for almost a year. This will be much shorter, and the long-term impact on the economy much lower - with greater long-term certainty.

'But population density!'
Many countries across the world with greater population density than ours have achieved this - Taiwan, Vietnam.

'But we're culturally different'
Australia, New Zealand?

'But it would never work'
Why? It's clearly worked in other parts of the world

I think we need an honest, transparent, and factual discussion about this in the UK. These options aren't mutually exclusive, but one provides much more certainty, is tried & tested & has many advantages.

We should at the very least consider it & not silence discussions on it.

[Milltown Row2]

Where has anyone said open al up?

Me thinks to many people on this board happy with the home comforts

Milltown and the boys don't want to take the slippers on just yet

Schools returning in England on March 8th. No excuse why Northern Ireland should not open on ye same date

I'm saying open it up, we've done everything else so let's just open it up. It might work

[sid waddell]

Where has anyone said open al up?

Me thinks to many people on this board happy with the home comforts

Milltown and the boys don't want to take the slippers on just yet

Schools returning in England on March 8th. No excuse why Northern Ireland should not open on ye same date

Ireland went to Level 3 from December 1st

In practice this was let it rip

It was just much less of a let it rip scenario than you'd have with full opening

But it was still let it rip

[Armagh18]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

[dublin7]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

I can't tell if this is a piss take or not anymore given some on the nonsense posted against lockdowns on this thread

[Rossfan]

Maybe the Mod could lock the thread for a few days to give us all a break?

[Milltown Row2]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

I don't think it could in fairness. if there was bigger hospitals and more staff we could just go at it. Bricklayers could head in and just build bigger walls around the nursing homes, possible armed guards at over 65's houses just to ensure they keep curfew. It makes so much sense now

[Armagh18]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

I can't tell if this is a piss take or not anymore given some on the nonsense posted against lockdowns on this thread

So you think they're great?

[Milltown Row2]

They're rubbish, had we just carried on we'd have had low cases, barely any deaths and a better economy ffs.. so stupid of the government trying to ruin everything, honestly once this carry on is over they should be shot!

As long as we'd be under the plague of 17/18 we'd have coped

[Rossfan]

4 of the secret 6 experts seem to be
Angela, Prof Smurf, Armagh 18 and Bennycake.
Now if we could convince the WHO and 180 or whatever Governments to read GAAboard Covid would be gone by St Patrick's Day.

[dublin7]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

I can't tell if this is a piss take or not anymore given some on the nonsense posted against lockdowns on this thread

So you think they're great?

I don't think lockdowns are great, but I do know things would be much worse without them.

Covid is completely different to dealing with the flu. Also despite what some people think Covid is not seasonal like the flu

[Angelo]

Feck it, just open up, let her rip right through and once herd immunity comes we'll be over the worst of it.

Quickest way, let the bars open first, followed by the sports, mainly indoor gyms, get a few concerts going also, fill the Odyssey.

After that get the offices back to full capacity and turn up the ventilation to the max.

Hospitals next, visitation back to normal, ah screw it increase the numbers due to lack of access before and nursing homes next.

Schools and colleges back to normal and full lectures and make sure it's done before paddy's day for the sake of the Holylands.

Free flights to the states to encourage the travel industry, let it get back on its feet, stuff it throw in free flights to Brazil and South Africa.

But, we should only allow people under 65 to do that, as it won't affect them really

The side effects of a lockdown are 100x worse than the effects of covid, especially for non vulnerable people.

So just open it up, let's do it. Sure what is the worst that can happen?

couldnt be worse than this

I can't tell if this is a piss take or not anymore given some on the nonsense posted against lockdowns on this thread

So you think they're great?

I don't think lockdowns are great, but I do know things would be much worse without them.

Covid is completely different to dealing with the flu. Also despite what some people think Covid is not seasonal like the flu

Jesus Christ.

The utter stupidity of that post.

https://www.scienceboard.net/index.aspx?sec=ser&sub=def&pag=dis&ItemID=2055

January 28, 2021 -- As the world enters year two of the COVID-19 pandemic, new research suggests that seasonality, including temperature and location, could be a factor in the spread of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to an analysis published in Evolutionary Bioinformatics on January 26.

Many viral infections are seasonal in nature, including the influenza virus, which makes an appearance every winter. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and public health officials suggested that SARS-CoV-2 might behave like other endemic coronaviruses, peaking in the fall and winter seasons.

However, this claim was lacking scientific evidence, especially on the global scale. This question provided the impetus for researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign to conduct work that would fill this specific knowledge gap.

Taking into consideration all the similarities with influenza infection, the team investigated if COVID-19 infection is seasonal. They hypothesized that COVID-19 epidemiology and genetic makeup are affected by the seasonality phenomenon. For instance, they postulated that high temperatures and humidity would negatively affect viral transmission, as well as the resulting cases and death rates.

Does temperature and location affect COVID-19 disease?

First, the researchers downloaded relevant epidemiological data (disease incidence, mortality, recovery cases, active cases, testing rate, and hospitalization) from 221 countries, along with their latitude, longitude, and average temperature. They used Pearson correlation analyses to test if temperature and geographic location were associated with population-normalized data of incidence, mortality, recovery of patients, active cases, and testing rate in each country.

"One conclusion is that the disease may be seasonal, like the flu. This is very relevant to what we should expect from now on after the vaccine controls these first waves of COVID-19," said senior author Gustavo Caetano-Anollés, PhD, professor in the department of crop sciences, affiliate of the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology at Illinois, in a statement.

"Indeed, our worldwide epidemiological analysis showed a statistically significant correlation between temperature and incidence, mortality, recovery cases, and active cases," noted Caetano-Anollés. "The same tendency was found with latitude, but not with longitude, as we expected."

Do viral mutations affect COVID-19 disease?

The team also sought to establish a link between temperature-location effects with genomic changes of SARS-CoV-2 to determine if temperature-related epidemiological effects are controlled by the virus in its interaction with the host. For this analysis, genomic change, and genomic change per unit time were computed from an alignment of 55, 453 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to determine if there were significant statistical correlations with temperatures and geographic coordinates of the various countries. Mutation accumulation and rates were calculated for the entire genome and for specific regions known for significant pathways of mutational change.

Mutational changes were based on results from a parallel study of 15,342 indexed virus genome sequences that revealed novel pathways of mutational change during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis predicted mutational shift from spike and replication proteins to other regions of the proteome, including the nucleocapsid protein and the viroporin 3a protein. A lack of significant correlations indicates that mutational changes in the virus genomic makeup appear unrelated to the temperature modulation of the COVID-19 disease.

"Our results suggest the virus is changing at its own pace, and mutations are affected by factors other than temperature or latitude," said Caetano-Anollés. "We don't know exactly what those factors are, but we can now say seasonal effects are independent of the genetic makeup of the virus."

Host immune system and seasonality of COVID-19

The researchers noted that the host immune system could be in part responsible for the pattern of seasonality. While unconfirmed, some studies suggest that high environmental temperatures, host nutritional status, and vitamin D levels play a crucial role in the regulation of adaptive immune responses following respiratory viral infection, as is the case with influenza. The researchers recommend that the interaction of the environment and SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological data merits further investigation.

"We know the flu is seasonal, and that we get a break during the summer. That gives us a chance to build the flu vaccine for the following fall," explained Caetano-Anollés. "When we are still in the midst of a raging pandemic, that break is nonexistent. Perhaps learning how to boost our immune system could help combat the disease as we struggle to catch up with the ever-changing coronavirus."

[dublin7]

I have Angelo on mute for obvious reasons, but out of curiosity I clicked on his link that he claims proves Covid is seasonal. Their early findings from the link he referenced:

One conclusion is that the disease may be seasonal, like the flu

There you have it folks. Clear and definitive proof Covid is seasonal

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

[Milltown Row2]

March April and May of last year, September through to Feb is just one season. So yes it's completely seasonal, the numbers were poor during that other season.

Only 2 seasons per year. This was changed by Prof Smurphy and Angelo