China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

Sky or BBC

I'm genuinely not on the wind up here, but I thought that most folk aspiring to a UI looked to the RTE for their news etc.  Tbh, as a unionist who listens to BBC TV, Radio etc, this would be one of the reasons why I would not be too keen on a UI.  Perhaps not the correct thread for this, but there you go.

It's  like a different country (copyright Ian Rush)

For you too then?

I probably find it different in a different way than yourself I reckon tbh.

Not so much a different country per se. However, other than Ireland rugby matches, generally accessed via BBC or ITV more recently, a lot of the news and cultural life in the ROI passes me by.  I dare say, however, that except for those from a nationalist background with an interest in GAA, the same night apply too.

I know alot of people round belfast who don't have rte because they haven't bothered to sort it out, and aren't too bothered about it. Always baffled me. It was always on in my house growing up.

Was an rte aerial in every house in my street in the 70's in Belfast, just didn't watch it other than the GAA

Anyone who has sky get it free, I doubt there's too many without sky or free tv nowadays, is it people you know in Belfast that are students or actual residents?

[GiveItToTheShooters]

Sky or BBC

I'm genuinely not on the wind up here, but I thought that most folk aspiring to a UI looked to the RTE for their news etc.  Tbh, as a unionist who listens to BBC TV, Radio etc, this would be one of the reasons why I would not be too keen on a UI.  Perhaps not the correct thread for this, but there you go.

Would never watch RTE news, in fairness I wouldn't watch news unless there was something came up

When I was young and troubles were going we only had between 4-6 channels. In Derry we had no issue getting "teilifís Éireann" as everyone called it and my Da insisted on RTÉ 1 being button 1 then RTÉ 2 button 2. Anything to prove our Irishness lol, but with advent of sky the 6 o clock news on RTÉ has got lost a bit. I still always go to TG4 and RTÉ channels everyday though for other stuff.

that's how ulsterisation works, lads on the gah board watching the english news 

ROI is a foreign country kid. What happens politically  in London is more important than Dublin unfortunately

No it isn't.
Didn't know you were a hun. On before talking about buying armagh GAA tops, talking about celtic in that thread before coming out with west brit terms like that and saying how proud you are to be a UK citizen in a previous post.
Confused individual

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Sky or BBC

I'm genuinely not on the wind up here, but I thought that most folk aspiring to a UI looked to the RTE for their news etc.  Tbh, as a unionist who listens to BBC TV, Radio etc, this would be one of the reasons why I would not be too keen on a UI.  Perhaps not the correct thread for this, but there you go.

Would never watch RTE news, in fairness I wouldn't watch news unless there was something came up

When I was young and troubles were going we only had between 4-6 channels. In Derry we had no issue getting "teilifís Éireann" as everyone called it and my Da insisted on RTÉ 1 being button 1 then RTÉ 2 button 2. Anything to prove our Irishness lol, but with advent of sky the 6 o clock news on RTÉ has got lost a bit. I still always go to TG4 and RTÉ channels everyday though for other stuff.

that's how ulsterisation works, lads on the gah board watching the english news 

The point is that in the current digital media age, folk can access what they want.  How many folk in the O6C actually watch RTE?

Honestly every day, always listen to RTE radio 1 and 2fm too, admittedly the children would never watch or listen to it. Tg4 is just unbelievable in terms of content with the budget they must have. I'd watch TG4 more than RTÉ

[LCohen]

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/

This article pretty pretty much sums how I feel about COVID.

So much noise. So little consideration.

The past year has seen a ridiculous emphasis on "form" over "pedigree".

It's an awful shame that social media has created a platform for COVID fanatics to incessantly paint non-fanatics as tin-hat wearing imbeciles, and for the actual tin-hat wearers to simultaneously fan these flames.

As mentioned before, the internet should have made us more enlightened. It seems to have has the opposite effect.

Kendrick is a dangerous fool.

His approach to science is the following
1 Take a position
2. Google research titles
3. Dismiss any article where the title does not confirm the research will agree with the position adopted at stage 1
4. Any remaining research is used as evidence supporting his position (even if only article survives the cull at stage 3)

His is not research it's self selecting confirmation bias. The opposite of science.

How do know this? Because he has already been caught doing exactly that.

The article is an opinion piece based on mortality rates. It doesn't wander into other territories.

If his mortality data is wrong, he is wrong. If his mortality data is right, then this a sensible discussion to have in a level headed way; regardless of what he has said in the past.

It is an article by a dodgy individual. The individual had a proven record in filtering out anything that does not fit his narrative. So in approaching anything he chooses to present you have to question what evidence has he ignored?

This discredited individual is playing with the data that does make it into his article. Look at the scale on the y axis on every single chart. Look at what he does there and you are basically on to him.

And aside from those charts take note of the claims in the article and then look for the corresponding evidence quoted in support the claim. The second part of that is key

[LCohen]

I came across that Ivor Cummins fella on twitter a while back and was intrigued for a bit, lost interest within days

I think it would be good if Seaney, Angelo etc could explain why they haven't got anything from sources other than discredited ones?

The pseudo scientists rely on stupidity and gullibility and very often monetise that. Seaney, Angelo etc are inexhaustible in their determination not only to supply the gullibility/stupidity but to advertise this

[sid waddell]

This thread is so f**king depressing

I don't see how schools will be opening for the foreseeable future anyway

The world has developed unfounded saviour syndrome towards 2021, but it looks like an even bigger **** of a year than 2020

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464

[Smurfy123]

Sid break that down for me
In simple terms what is the link saying exactly?

[sid waddell]

Sid break that down for me
In simple terms what is the link saying exactly?

In Britain the new variant has become very prevalent among younger people, ie. of school going age - there are still significant regional variations in this - but among older people "normal" Covid is still dominant

However if the new variant becomes dominant we will almost certainly not be able to keep it under control, because even in a lockdown situation, it has an R of 1.4-1.5  - though Gerry Killeen is now saying that he thinks it's just about possible to contain it with extreme lockdown

Schools are defo a significant site of spread - the bleedin' obvious tells us this - and certainly will be for an ultra-transmissible variant

It's thought that a more transmissible variant which has the same effects as normal Covid - which is the case with this new variant - is much more serious for the public health situation than a hypothetical more "serious" variant which has the same transmissibility - see below

So basically, batten down the hatches for the foreseeable, and there needs to be a war-like effort for vaccine manufacture and roll out

The good news is that it is thought that vaccination will significantly inhibit transmission

-----

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we'd expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.

[sid waddell]

This is the nub of it

It's clear that although the situation is dire now, there is potential for it to get much worse & given the rises we're seeing in variant frequency in other regions, if we don't act now, not only will exponential rise continue, but the rate of rise will increase.

This may also mean more cases among older age groups- while the variant is currently dominant among children, the situation is likely to get much worse if this gains dominance among adults, who will be more likely to spread to other adults & older people - which means more deaths

To illustrate this with an example-
Say 15% of a region has the variant now, and has an overall R of 1.1 (fairly realistic given the rises we're seeing in much of England where the variant isn't dominant yet.

Assuming R of 1.7 for the VOC and 1 for the standard strain, the variant would be expected to rise to >70% frequency within a month. This would mean an increase in R to 1.5 in this period from 1.1. In terms of case numbers it would be devastating.

Assuming 2000 daily cases in a region at baseline, in real terms, this would mean - 62,000 daily cases in 2 months time, vs 5,187 had the R remained constant at 1.1.

And an order of magnitude greater no. of deaths
(assuming similar age distribution which may not be the case)

All the evidence is pointing in the same direction- we need to act urgently to curb spread across *all* of the UK. Letting this variant spread is not an option. And we need to close schools, until we can make them safe, & prevent onward transmission. This is critical now.

Personally I fear the genie is probably already out of the bottle

[imtommygunn]

Yeah- I also think genie already out of the bottle.  Basically same pattern as before really with the new variant. Starts London and spreads.

[armaghniac]

" And we need to close schools, until we can make them safe,"

I think that the make them safe is important. There is a large variation in the setup in schools, the best are pretty safe but there are many which fall short of this because of overcrowding, the design of the building, and the general running of the school.
For instance, sending half of children to school each day might greatly improve safety and keep children's education ticking over. We need to get away from close everything/open everything, which is too crude. For instance, there is a tract of the country from Ballinasloe to Birr with few enough cases, should schools close there in a same way as a place with 5 times the rate?

[RadioGAAGAA]

Personally I fear the genie is probably already out of the bottle

Out of the bottle?

FFS the genie has grandkids at this point.

Even after 6 months of painful warning, the govt were so far behind the curve in Sept when this raised its head its unbelievable. Any virologist knows that mutates will happen and they can be very dangerous. SAGE had to have been advising this - so what the f**k was in place to monitor all post-mortems or a geographically representative selection of test results for mutations and keep tabs on which, if any, were gaining traction?

[armaghniac]

Personally I fear the genie is probably already out of the bottle

Out of the bottle?

FFS the genie has grandkids at this point.

Even after 6 months of painful warning, the govt were so far behind the curve in Sept when this raised its head its unbelievable. Any virologist knows that mutates will happen and they can be very dangerous. SAGE had to have been advising this - so what the f**k was in place to monitor all post-mortems or a geographically representative selection of test results for mutations and keep tabs on which, if any, were gaining traction?

In fairness to the British (not my usual disposition) they have one of the best systems for this type of monitoring. However, the problem is that those who advocated running the health service flat out left no room for anything, like a new variant, to go wrong. 

[RadioGAAGAA]

In fairness to the British (not my usual disposition) they have one of the best systems for this type of monitoring. However, the problem is that those who advocated running the health service flat out left no room for anything, like a new variant, to go wrong.

The first detection of this new variant was September, it didn't go from one case in September into underground hiding then explode into hundreds of thousands over night in December.

So what was the detection system doing? Or was it ignored by the politicians? If so, I'd expect evidence to that end to come out in the wash.

[I'd also like to see prosecution of anyone involved in brushing over it with criminal negligence.]

[GetOverTheBar]

In fairness to the British (not my usual disposition) they have one of the best systems for this type of monitoring. However, the problem is that those who advocated running the health service flat out left no room for anything, like a new variant, to go wrong.

The first detection of this new variant was September, it didn't go from one case in September into underground hiding then explode into hundreds of thousands over night in December.

So what was the detection system doing? Or was it ignored by the politicians? If so, I'd expect evidence to that end to come out in the wash.

[I'd also like to see prosecution of anyone involved in brushing over it with criminal negligence.]

More chance of Tony Blair facing retrospective action for his part in the war in Iraq.