China Coronavirus

[Harold Disgracey]

Over 500 cases again today. It's really not dropping anywhere near as quick as anyone would like it I suspect.

Also the positivity rate of tests remains something like 20% which is extraordinarily high. The death/cases rate is higher is the 6 counties than the 26 counties, which suggests that NI is not getting all the cases, unless the age profile is different.

I believe Craigavon Hospital is chockablock with COVID patients, most of those dying are mainly obese and in their 40s/50s.

[GetOverTheBar]

Over 500 cases again today. It's really not dropping anywhere near as quick as anyone would like it I suspect.

Also the positivity rate of tests remains something like 20% which is extraordinarily high. The death/cases rate is higher is the 6 counties than the 26 counties, which suggests that NI is not getting all the cases, unless the age profile is different.

I believe Craigavon Hospital is chockablock with COVID patients, most of those dying are mainly obese and in their 40s/50s.

Unless I'm reading this PDF wrong, it's not even full at minute. Page 20.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-db-101120.pdf

[Seaney]

But that doesn't help the fear narrative.

[Harold Disgracey]

Over 500 cases again today. It's really not dropping anywhere near as quick as anyone would like it I suspect.

Also the positivity rate of tests remains something like 20% which is extraordinarily high. The death/cases rate is higher is the 6 counties than the 26 counties, which suggests that NI is not getting all the cases, unless the age profile is different.

I believe Craigavon Hospital is chockablock with COVID patients, most of those dying are mainly obese and in their 40s/50s.

Unless I'm reading this PDF wrong, it's not even full at minute. Page 20.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-db-101120.pdf

Anecdotally from an ICU nurse, the charts back this up c60% of ICU beds in Craigavon taken up by COVID patients.

[GetOverTheBar]

It's tough to get past the anecdotal stuff, so much is still strange about it. Mid Ulster is the Covid hotspot, I live right in the middle of it and you hear the odd story, so and so has it etc. But really I've only heard of about 10-15 people so far in 8 months 100% had it.

I think people are taking people isolating as having 100% got it in their local chat.

[Harold Disgracey]

It's tough to get past the anecdotal stuff, so much is still strange about it. Mid Ulster is the Covid hotspot, I live right in the middle of it and you hear the odd story, so and so has it etc. But really I've only heard of about 10-15 people so far in 8 months 100% had it.

I think people are taking people isolating as having 100% got it in their local chat.

I'm an evidence based researcher by profession so I would only take anecdotal evidence as a possible indicator until I saw the numbers to back it up. I generally would trust the word of an ICU nurse. Up until the last month or so, like yourself, I only knew a few people who had it, including an elderly relative who died from it. Lately the number of people I know who have had it (confirmed positive case) has skyrocketed.

[Cunny Funt]

16 deaths reported in the ROI today, 14 of them happened since November 1st and the other two in October. 270 cases reported.

7-day average for cases per day: 421.6
(Previous 7 days: 617.1)

14-day cases/100k: 152.7
(7 days ago: 228.3)

[imtommygunn]

Over 500 cases again today. It's really not dropping anywhere near as quick as anyone would like it I suspect.

Also the positivity rate of tests remains something like 20% which is extraordinarily high. The death/cases rate is higher is the 6 counties than the 26 counties, which suggests that NI is not getting all the cases, unless the age profile is different.

Apparently the 7 day average for the north is 11% down from 15 two weeks ago.

(Source dr Lindsay Broadbent on Twitter who is well regarded so I suspect an accurate source.

[Seaney]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54882357

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1326138156761092099?s=19

They keep getting their lucrative salaries, as they did when they didn't show up for work for 18 months when they didn't even go to work!

Yeah Shinners and Duppers main culprits

[armaghniac]

Over 500 cases again today. It's really not dropping anywhere near as quick as anyone would like it I suspect.

Also the positivity rate of tests remains something like 20% which is extraordinarily high. The death/cases rate is higher is the 6 counties than the 26 counties, which suggests that NI is not getting all the cases, unless the age profile is different.

Apparently the 7 day average for the north is 11% down from 15 two weeks ago.

(Source dr Lindsay Broadbent on Twitter who is well regarded so I suspect an accurate source.

There is a lack of clarity about positivity rates in the 6 counties, I have seen different figures, but even 11% is not great.

Meanwhile I missed this article earlier, 20% of people with Covid have psychiatric symptoms and mentally ill people are more likely to get it https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1110/1177097-covid-19-and-psychiatric-disorder/

Not sure what this says about Boris and Donald.

[LCohen]

There have been 9 more Covid-19 deaths in the 6 counties, including one person aged under 19.
840 new cases were also reported today, resulting from tests on 3,722 individuals, which is 22.5% positivity which isn't great.

yet again the 26 counties has less cases, 676, than the wee 6.

Lowest daily case number in the ROI since October 9th. Seven day average has fallen now for 4 days in a row.

Yet more evidence, as if it was needed, that lockdowns work

I'm just coming out of (apparently) one of the harshest lockdowns globally. Definitely worked

Lockdowns are painful and nobody wants them, but they clearly work as the best way to reduce cases of Covid, and therefore reduce hospital admissions from Covid, which can allow our Health Service (which already was only mediocre (being generous)) to deal with normal health requirements. Hopefully we'll continue down the route of cases coming down day-by-day and don't overact if there's an outlier one-off day which shows an increase or a too-good-to-be-true decrease.

They key will be how "we" react when we get the numbers down and move out of Level 5. I feel desperately sorry for those business owners and employees who are worst hit by the restrictions. We owe it to them to behave strictly in accordance with Level 2 and 3 (or whatever we move to) when we come out of Level 5.  And of course our Test and Trace system will be absolutely critical.

I understand we're close to bringing in the new antigen testing that is able to mean almost instant test results. Albeit it's not as reliable (and the current testing system isn't the most reliable!), so will be interesting to see how that develops.

More Covid tunnel vision.

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Lockdowns don't work.

Angelo, time to set out your stall.

Set out your proposed strategy. The steps, the likely death toll, the impact on the NHS, the impact on the economy. Let's hear it.

Every medical advisor to the government has got this wrong to date, what are your thoughts, your proposed strategy,  likely death toll, impact on the NHS, impact on the economy, lets hear it!  Or are you happy with the failing narrative of lockdown and the ridiculous rules which make little or no sense but to punish the most vulnerable in society?

I wonder where Angelo has gone on this one.

So firstly my reasons for posting the questions to Angelo.

He consistently alludes to things like:
There is an economic consequence to lockdowns
There is a mental health impact to lock downs
We just accept Flu
The transmissibility of COVID-19 is congruous with the flu

I could go on.

There is however no alternative plan and no recognition by Angelo that not locking down has an impact on mental health, the economy etc.

So that is where I am coming from.

Angelo picks up a line like WHO's critique of lockdowns and wilfully misinterprets that as a rejection of lockdowns when in reality it's a warning that if to don't take quick measures you will be forced to use lockdowns.

Angelo does this over and over again. It's only right that he should be challenged to put some basic framework to his ramblings. He is the one obsessed with death tolls ( chiefly re flu) as the sole barometer of success. I don't play that game.

As for my own views on lockdown I believe the current English lockdown is completely necessary. It should have been done earlier and if the correct steps are not taken now there is an increased likelihood that it will be needed again. I don't think anyone can rule it out being needed in the future. Personally I would expect one to overlap with February's mid term break.

The steps that need taken now include
An objective assessment of the capabilities of test, track and trace.
The identified gaps to be sorted. Probably need to look internationally for a functioning blueprint
A sensecheck on where all the various vaccines and treatments are at. We can't compromise on safety. The vaccine must be safe. But we can compromise on efficacy. During the winter period we can move ahead with vaccines and treatments that might only help 50% or even 40 or 30% of people. Any progress can be targeted on key workers and then the most vulnerable.
We need to pay those with positive tests to stay at home if they can't work from home.

But given you are using lines like every medical adviser has got this wrong I'm guessing I'm wasting my time

So still nothing from Angelo. With Seaney now holding the baton I wonder will he do any better??

Surely they have something?

[imtommygunn]

The two week circuit breaker became four, now they want six and then what? 1,000s of staff in hospitality having their wages cut and no tips in the mouth of Christmas if SF have there way.

Good auld Pootsy making it sectarian again. Sure it's the UUP health minister advocating more of a lockdown but we'll blame SF. (Yes they agree but singled out). I wonder are the DUP not getting as much money in their coffers to not support lockdown as they have made it clear on several occasions they don't really care about peoples livelihoods. Muppets.

[Last Man]

Still a spectrum of opinion out there so people are entitled to make their own judgement in as far as the science is not definitive at this stage. This is worth a listen.
https://adapnation.io/149-sweden-covid-sebastian/

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

The two week circuit breaker became four, now they want six and then what? 1,000s of staff in hospitality having their wages cut and no tips in the mouth of Christmas if SF have there way.

Good auld Pootsy making it sectarian again. Sure it's the UUP health minister advocating more of a lockdown but we'll blame SF. (Yes they agree but singled out). I wonder are the DUP not getting as much money in their coffers to not support lockdown as they have made it clear on several occasions they don't really care about peoples livelihoods. Muppets.

What seems to be getting missed here is that large swathes of public irrespective of political stance back the DUP in this.