China Coronavirus

[Angelo]

the virus will soon run out of people to infect so only then will the numbers decrease

Being infected once doesn't give immunity thereafter, in fact the general belief is that the vaccines being rolled out will need to be an annual thing.

Covid is here to stay with us for a while yet.

This is a complete grey area which doesn't bode well for science. How have they not uncovered this yet?

So basically your strategy is stay within your own demograph, stay away from the vulnerable and those over 70. Continue that till you fall into that demograph?

That seems the best of advice on thread, close it

We are administering vaccinations to the at risk and elderly groups at present.

I suppose it depends on how this vaccination works. We don't know yet if it actually works so if they are protected then society doesn't really have a reason to be shut down.

I'd like to agree with that statement, somehow I don't think it will be quite so straight forward or quick coming.

That said, in the North (as of yesterday),88k total had tested positive so to be at the stage already where we are going to outstrip positive total tests throughout the pandemic, that is a fantastic achievement really.

I also seen we've performed 1.2 million tests total. Christ that seems a bit high doesn't it? Maybe more reassuring if you think of it as a percentage.

All ifs, buts and maybes.

The stats have shown us that the virus is not serious to the vast amount of the population. We know from the figures released for the Mar-Aug deaths here that the Covid avg age of death is higher than the avg life expectancy, somewhere in the mid 90% of Covid deaths were over the age of 65, over 80s accounted for 66% of deaths. So providing the vaccine is effective and providing we have vulnerable groupings and healthcare workers vaccinated and this is proven to protect them - then we should be able to get on with things.

If the vaccine does not prevent contraction and transmission of the virus then what is the upside of the people in non-vulnerable groupings getting it? It's likely fairly minimal at best.

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

There are multiple reasons on death certs, I haven't seen a Covid death cert personally and hopefully never will, but I've seen one that had two reasons for the death.. Some deaths are more complicated, cancers can be terminal and there may be a life span of ten years with it, but you could catch covid which has a reaction to the immune system and results in an earlier death than expected.

That person may have had a terminal illness and a contributing factor, but the catching of the covid sped up this persons death.

The way I understand it is, if you had Covid when you died, you are then classified as a Covid death - regardless of whether it was the cause of death.

[Milltown Row2]

Again, there could be other factors. I haven't seen a death Cert on Covid, so I won't say it has or hasn't.

I'm giving you an example of what I've seen, a death cert with multiple causes

[GetOverTheBar]

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

Why?

Because a Covid death being counted as a Covid death hurts your feelings?

Why are you asking for censorship?

I'm asking for accuracy. There is a big, big difference.

[BennyCake]

the virus will soon run out of people to infect so only then will the numbers decrease

Being infected once doesn't give immunity thereafter, in fact the general belief is that the vaccines being rolled out will need to be an annual thing.

Covid is here to stay with us for a while yet.

This is a complete grey area which doesn't bode well for science. How have they not uncovered this yet?

So basically your strategy is stay within your own demograph, stay away from the vulnerable and those over 70. Continue that till you fall into that demograph?

That seems the best of advice on thread, close it

We are administering vaccinations to the at risk and elderly groups at present.

I suppose it depends on how this vaccination works. We don't know yet if it actually works so if they are protected then society doesn't really have a reason to be shut down.

I'd like to agree with that statement, somehow I don't think it will be quite so straight forward or quick coming.

That said, in the North (as of yesterday),88k total had tested positive so to be at the stage already where we are going to outstrip positive total tests throughout the pandemic, that is a fantastic achievement really.

I also seen we've performed 1.2 million tests total. Christ that seems a bit high doesn't it? Maybe more reassuring if you think of it as a percentage.

All ifs, buts and maybes.

The stats have shown us that the virus is not serious to the vast amount of the population. We know from the figures released for the Mar-Aug deaths here that the Covid avg age of death is higher than the avg life expectancy, somewhere in the mid 90% of Covid deaths were over the age of 65, over 80s accounted for 66% of deaths. So providing the vaccine is effective and providing we have vulnerable groupings and healthcare workers vaccinated and this is proven to protect them - then we should be able to get on with things.

If the vaccine does not prevent contraction and transmission of the virus then what is the upside of the people in non-vulnerable groupings getting it? It's likely fairly minimal at best.

Yes, good point.

But non-vulnerables will get the vaccine. And theres a simple reason why - covid passport.

[sid waddell]

The Irish Times have run a bizarre pro-Varadkar propaganda piece this morning based on emails from eejits in the public who wrote in to praise Varadkar's disastrous appearance on the Claire Byrne Live programme last October

This was the one where Varadkar rubbished NPHET and Tony Holohan over their advice to move to Level 5 - it was the most disastrous interview by an Irish politician since Brian Lenihan's "mature recollection"

The IT article this morning reads like something from Murdoch media - it's like a written version of Fox News

FG towers are clearly desperate, they know that when deaths start hitting 100 a day very soon, the public are going to recoil and look for somebody to blame

And the public will look for those in power who were flippant about the situation, or rejected public health advice - Varadkar did both

Hence the desperate effort to portray him as "a man of the people"

"He was only doing what the people wanted, guv"

But he wasn't - he was making a play for the sort of eejits who if they were in America would be Trumpists - and he was playing with people's lives to do so

A load of hyperbolic nonsense in there Sid.

Varadkar wasn't annoyed with the message, it was more that it was released to the press before it was provided to Cabinet. The objective to put pressure on Cabinet.
Turns out it was right to go to Level 5, but we went to Level 5 anyway within a very short time and up to Christmas we were 'performing' best in Europe, behind only Iceland.

The real problem is the opening up for Christmas combined with new variants. There is definitely a strong argument that we should have remained in lockdown for Christmas, but with spirits up due to vaccine announcements, there was clear public preference to ease restrictions and no political party called for a Christmas lockdown.

So overall it's clear that in terms of timing of going into and coming out of lockdown, our politicians have been about the best in Europe (acknowledging that most of those decisions had support from opposition parties), but still probably only 6.5/10 or thereabouts if I was giving a mark. But there's absolutely nothing to suggest any other party would have handled it with any substantive difference.

Rollout of the vaccine is now key. We seem to be doing no better than mediocre at the moment in that regard albeit there are of course supply constraints to deal with.

How is it hyperbolic?

You say "Varadkar wasn't annoyed with the message" - that is simply wrong

He portrayed NPHET and Holohan as not living in the real world, when they very much were

He portrayed them as living in an ivory tower - but it was Vardakar who was living in an ivory tower

NPHET's advice was leaked to the press - by who?

It wasn't NPHET, as the Government desperately tried to frame it

The most logical person to have leaked it is Varadkar himself

Varadkar undermined trust in public health advice enormously with that appearance - it was disgraceful - he was flippant, he was playing to the right-wing populist idiot crowd, and it backfired on him within a day, and time has proven the full folly of that appearance

Government then made the same mistake but much worse in December

Government's job is to govern in the best interests of the people - not to govern according to opinion poll, or worse, social media comments - and that's all Varadkar seems capable of doing

The IT article this morning is laughable in its propaganda nature, like jaysus christ, how the f**k are emails by idiots back in October praising an idiotic interview now framed into something "positive" in January

[sid waddell]

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

Why?

Because a Covid death being counted as a Covid death hurts your feelings?

Why are you asking for censorship?

I'm asking for accuracy. There is a big, big difference.

What killed Freddie Mercury? AIDS or pneumonia? Did he die from AIDS or "with" AIDS, whatever that's supposed to mean?

[GetOverTheBar]

the virus will soon run out of people to infect so only then will the numbers decrease

Being infected once doesn't give immunity thereafter, in fact the general belief is that the vaccines being rolled out will need to be an annual thing.

Covid is here to stay with us for a while yet.

This is a complete grey area which doesn't bode well for science. How have they not uncovered this yet?

So basically your strategy is stay within your own demograph, stay away from the vulnerable and those over 70. Continue that till you fall into that demograph?

That seems the best of advice on thread, close it

We are administering vaccinations to the at risk and elderly groups at present.

I suppose it depends on how this vaccination works. We don't know yet if it actually works so if they are protected then society doesn't really have a reason to be shut down.

I'd like to agree with that statement, somehow I don't think it will be quite so straight forward or quick coming.

That said, in the North (as of yesterday),88k total had tested positive so to be at the stage already where we are going to outstrip positive total tests throughout the pandemic, that is a fantastic achievement really.

I also seen we've performed 1.2 million tests total. Christ that seems a bit high doesn't it? Maybe more reassuring if you think of it as a percentage.

All ifs, buts and maybes.

The stats have shown us that the virus is not serious to the vast amount of the population. We know from the figures released for the Mar-Aug deaths here that the Covid avg age of death is higher than the avg life expectancy, somewhere in the mid 90% of Covid deaths were over the age of 65, over 80s accounted for 66% of deaths. So providing the vaccine is effective and providing we have vulnerable groupings and healthcare workers vaccinated and this is proven to protect them - then we should be able to get on with things.

If the vaccine does not prevent contraction and transmission of the virus then what is the upside of the people in non-vulnerable groupings getting it? It's likely fairly minimal at best.

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

There are multiple reasons on death certs, I haven't seen a Covid death cert personally and hopefully never will, but I've seen one that had two reasons for the death.. Some deaths are more complicated, cancers can be terminal and there may be a life span of ten years with it, but you could catch covid which has a reaction to the immune system and results in an earlier death than expected.

That person may have had a terminal illness and a contributing factor, but the catching of the covid sped up this persons death.

You can have any number of reasons on the cert as you've pointed out.

But any mention of Covid immediately goes towards the statistics that we see daily.

If someone has the vaccine however and it's all up to date etc.....then we can't, for sake of accuracy call it a Covid death anymore, surely.

[trailer]

They can't really get any tighter. Everything is closed. Bar the multinationals.

Wanna bet? I could see the following happen in the UK
- All takeaway closed
- Curfew 8pm - 6am
- Construction closed
- Enforced stay at home restrictions with only one household member permitted to leave home once a week

The numbers are off the scale and people aren't understanding it. Examples on this thread.

[sid waddell]

You can have any number of reasons on the cert as you've pointed out.

But any mention of Covid immediately goes towards the statistics that we see daily.

The reality is that UK Covid deaths are being under counted, any death after 28 deaths since a positive test is not counted as a Covid death

[GetOverTheBar]

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

Why?

Because a Covid death being counted as a Covid death hurts your feelings?

Why are you asking for censorship?

I'm asking for accuracy. There is a big, big difference.

What killed Freddie Mercury? AIDS or pneumonia? Did he die from AIDS or "with" AIDS, whatever that's supposed to mean?

Sorry what is your point here?

What killed Freddie Mercury is kinda irrelevant, the only similarity is that AIDS continues to be a pandemic not many seem to be bothered about. His cause of death is not something I know the ins and outs of.

What is the problem with asking for clarification if someone has had their Covid vaccination, can Covid still be marked on a death certificate?

It's simple housekeeping going forward.

[BennyCake]

Even if someone has covid, recovers, and gets run over by a bus a couple of week's later, they're put down as a covid death.

I'd say with all the normal deaths in winter (with flu, chest infections, etc), those put down as covid deaths, when they weren't, are bound to be higher.

It just doesn't add up. In more ways than one.

[imtommygunn]

They can't really get any tighter. Everything is closed. Bar the multinationals.

Wanna bet? I could see the following happen in the UK
- All takeaway closed
- Curfew 8pm - 6am
- Construction closed
- Enforced stay at home restrictions with only one household member permitted to leave home once a week

The numbers are off the scale and people aren't understanding it. Examples on this thread.

Exactly - I don't think people are fully comprehending how stuffed the health services are going to be over the next few weeks.

I put the car in to get fixed in Belfast. The roads and pavements were mobbed.

Lockdown can get a lot worse as trailer says and in reality at current rate of growth it is going to happen.

Takeaways closed, B&Ms closed..., off licenses, nurseries, police can check where people are going and why. There are many many ways they can get a lot worse and I would be surprised if that doesn't happen.

What was it a doctor in Cork described it as .... "we are at the gates of hell" I think was his quote.

[trueblue1234]

Fairly morbid one by me here. But what I would like, is reassurance that Covid cannot be put on the death certs of those who have received the vaccination from here on.

If we are to say all over 80s have now been vaccinated, surely, they cannot appear as statistics in death going forward attributed to Covid? I understand Covid is being used as an umbrella group for various other ailments at the moment due to the fact it goes unquestioned etc.

Again, that's one I'll hold my breath on.

Why?

Because a Covid death being counted as a Covid death hurts your feelings?

Why are you asking for censorship?

I'm asking for accuracy. There is a big, big difference.

What killed Freddie Mercury? AIDS or pneumonia? Did he die from AIDS or "with" AIDS, whatever that's supposed to mean?

Sorry what is your point here?

What killed Freddie Mercury is kinda irrelevant, the only similarity is that AIDS continues to be a pandemic not many seem to be bothered about. His cause of death is not something I know the ins and outs of.

What is the problem with asking for clarification if someone has had their Covid vaccination, can Covid still be marked on a death certificate?

It's simple housekeeping going forward.

What possible benefit would it have to not record this? I've seen some random comments on this thread, but this is up there. For a start it helps evaluate how effective the vaccine is. If we see high %'s of people with the vaccine still die with Covid then it can be monitored. There is absolutely no benefit in not reporting Covid if it was Covid. Unless you want to purposely skew the figures downwards for whatever reasons.

[Angelo]

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1348343393605312513

I'm not saying this is correct and there was one reply to the OP that challenged some of the findings.  However, it really does highlight how little is known about the long term impact of this disease on individual / public health. 

So many people think they know the truth of this disease and are trying to speak authoritatively on so many aspects of it.  We have plenty of them on this discussion board and people are guilty of it on multiple sides of the debate.

People need to accept that one of the most dangerous aspects of this disease is the unknown. Will the vaccines work against emerging strains? Don't know. What are the long term implications of Covid on individual health? Don't know. Why do some people get long covid? Don't know.  When will we be back to normal? - Don't know? 

At this stage, I have had my fill of nonsense from uninformed Covid deniers in particular who think that their understanding is better than anyone else. When someone posts on Twitter, that their 21 year old son has been admitted to hospital with Covid, people seem compelled to chastise this concerned parent that Covid is no different than the flu. We are now at risk of an Italian style outbreak and yet we still see this nonsense being peddled. 

Notwithstanding the social implications of lockdowns etc, the only people that have a right to speak authoritatively on the disease itself are experts who have years of training in relevant areas. The experts are having to prevaricate because there is so much that is unknown - at least they do that.  Lots of people who have no real understanding of medicine or epidemiology seem to be able to speak with more conviction and apparent knowledge than the experts - that's because they are good at talking and don't mind giving opinions about things that they really know nothing about.

The rest of us have a right to our opinions, but in my mind, people have no business lecturing and hectoring others on something so complex that they really do not understand.  Question/ challenge certainly, but social media is now full of dangerous individuals pedaling alternative truths and they do not deserve people's attention.

What about the long term impact of the vaccine on the person who take it.

What you'll find is experts have conflicting views on this and how it has been handled. Anyone who doesn't agree with the mainstream thinking is coined a crank or conspiracy theorist because they have an opposing view, irrespective of their expertise.

Expertise is the most flimsy line of argument out there when the scientific and medical community have very different views on this.

[Angelo]

the virus will soon run out of people to infect so only then will the numbers decrease

Being infected once doesn't give immunity thereafter, in fact the general belief is that the vaccines being rolled out will need to be an annual thing.

Covid is here to stay with us for a while yet.

This is a complete grey area which doesn't bode well for science. How have they not uncovered this yet?

So basically your strategy is stay within your own demograph, stay away from the vulnerable and those over 70. Continue that till you fall into that demograph?

That seems the best of advice on thread, close it

We are administering vaccinations to the at risk and elderly groups at present.

I suppose it depends on how this vaccination works. We don't know yet if it actually works so if they are protected then society doesn't really have a reason to be shut down.

I'd like to agree with that statement, somehow I don't think it will be quite so straight forward or quick coming.

That said, in the North (as of yesterday),88k total had tested positive so to be at the stage already where we are going to outstrip positive total tests throughout the pandemic, that is a fantastic achievement really.

I also seen we've performed 1.2 million tests total. Christ that seems a bit high doesn't it? Maybe more reassuring if you think of it as a percentage.

All ifs, buts and maybes.

The stats have shown us that the virus is not serious to the vast amount of the population. We know from the figures released for the Mar-Aug deaths here that the Covid avg age of death is higher than the avg life expectancy, somewhere in the mid 90% of Covid deaths were over the age of 65, over 80s accounted for 66% of deaths. So providing the vaccine is effective and providing we have vulnerable groupings and healthcare workers vaccinated and this is proven to protect them - then we should be able to get on with things.

If the vaccine does not prevent contraction and transmission of the virus then what is the upside of the people in non-vulnerable groupings getting it? It's likely fairly minimal at best.

Yes, good point.

But non-vulnerables will get the vaccine. And theres a simple reason why - covid passport.

Yet there is probably no real upside.

I'm in no rush to travel abroad when this finishes. I'd be very wary of this vaccine at present and I wouldn't risk my health for the sake of a holiday until we know more about it.