China Coronavirus

[marty34]

21 in NI today which is relatively high, presumably we are still a few weeks away from the Christmas lag peak. The mid to late January numbers will likely be horrific throughout the isles.

Not supposed to be this weekend?

Arlene said earlier they think infections have peaked with the infection peak in latter half of this month.

Reading in today's I newspaper that peak daily death figures aren't expected until the final days of January

That'll make for grim reading.  That's 3 weeks away.

[imtommygunn]

1400 odd cases today. 9 deaths. 35 more in inpatients. There has been a real steady stream into hospital this week plus the numbers have been very high every day so you'd imagine hospital admissions will just continue to grow and grow

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55427659

A lot of interesting stats here. Especially the excess deaths, Id be of opinion ( unprofessional opinion that is) that the excess deaths are due to collapse of heath service and lack of GP contact them anything else

[armaghniac]

4,842 in the 26 counties, the backlog is more or less sorted, Monaghan leading the way.
Things will begin to settle during the week, both because of the restrictions and people realising after Xmas that there was a problem, but some people diagnosed this week will end up in hospital this week and ICU the week after.

[Norf Tyrone]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55427659

A lot of interesting stats here. Especially the excess deaths, Id be of opinion ( unprofessional opinion that is) that the excess deaths are due to collapse of heath service and lack of GP contact them anything else

The pattern is repeated throughout the world though?

[Smurfy123]

So basically when all the over 80s are vaccinated in 2 weeks when it starts to kick in it will eliminate almost 70% of deaths
And 50% hospitalised patients.
Don't see any reason why lockdowns should continue to a high extent.
Off course open up slowly. And it will give an even younger cohort to get vaccinated
Agree???

[Tubberman]

yes, but I'd wait til  >70s and other vulerable groups are vaccinated, not just >80s.

[Jeepers Creepers]

So basically when all the over 80s are vaccinated in 2 weeks when it starts to kick in it will eliminate almost 70% of deaths
And 50% hospitalised patients.
Don't see any reason why lockdowns should continue to a high extent.
Off course open up slowly. And it will give an even younger cohort to get vaccinated
Agree???

A former uk govt advisor David King said the other day this is the what the govt will go with but it will lead to many mutations if let rip among everyone else. He reckoned 80% of the population needs vaccinated to ensure this us put to bed?

[sid waddell]

So basically when all the over 80s are vaccinated in 2 weeks when it starts to kick in it will eliminate almost 70% of deaths
And 50% hospitalised patients.
Don't see any reason why lockdowns should continue to a high extent.
Off course open up slowly. And it will give an even younger cohort to get vaccinated
Agree???

A former uk govt advisor David King said the other day this is the what the govt will go with but it will lead to many mutations if let rip among everyone else. He reckoned 80% of the population needs vaccinated to ensure this us put to bed?

Devi Sridhar says 80-90%, she's been arguably the best commentator on this entire pandemic, certainly one of the best, very good interview with Krishnan Guru-Murthy here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXP7WwXW5KA

[PadraicHenryPearse]

So basically when all the over 80s are vaccinated in 2 weeks when it starts to kick in it will eliminate almost 70% of deaths
And 50% hospitalised patients.
Don't see any reason why lockdowns should continue to a high extent.
Off course open up slowly. And it will give an even younger cohort to get vaccinated
Agree???

A former uk govt advisor David King said the other day this is the what the govt will go with but it will lead to many mutations if let rip among everyone else. He reckoned 80% of the population needs vaccinated to ensure this us put to bed?

Devi Sridhar says 80-90%, she's been arguably the best commentator on this entire pandemic, certainly one of the best, very good interview with Krishnan Guru-Murthy here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXP7WwXW5KA

sid what is your occupation?

[sid waddell]

So basically when all the over 80s are vaccinated in 2 weeks when it starts to kick in it will eliminate almost 70% of deaths
And 50% hospitalised patients.
Don't see any reason why lockdowns should continue to a high extent.
Off course open up slowly. And it will give an even younger cohort to get vaccinated
Agree???

A former uk govt advisor David King said the other day this is the what the govt will go with but it will lead to many mutations if let rip among everyone else. He reckoned 80% of the population needs vaccinated to ensure this us put to bed?

Devi Sridhar says 80-90%, she's been arguably the best commentator on this entire pandemic, certainly one of the best, very good interview with Krishnan Guru-Murthy here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXP7WwXW5KA

sid what is your occupation?

I'm a full time live in carer, not sure why it would matter

[Smurfy123]

Yes but if all over 70s and vulnerable vaccinated which means 95% of deaths are eliminated and 80% hospitalised patients why would restrictions be kept
Why woukd any be kept?
Surely no reason too

[sid waddell]

Yes but if all over 70s and vulnerable vaccinated which means 95% of deaths are eliminated and 80% hospitalised patients why would restrictions be kept
Why woukd any be kept?
Surely no reason too

Because hospitals can still be overrun and many people under 70 can still either die or suffer from long Covid

Even if all over 70s and front line workers were vaccinated - and that would clearly be a good thing - releasing restrictions when you get to that point is still a let it rip scenario for everybody else, and that could cause a public health catastrophe - it could also mean we would have to continually revaccinate populations, as the virus never disappears if restrictions are released and the pace of vaccinations would not be able to keep pace with the rate of transmission - immunity via vaccine would eventually wear off

It could also lead to mutations - it seems that the more the virus spreads, the more it mutates - we may be able to deal with the current UK and South African variations via the vaccines we now have, but who can say for certain that that will be the case in the future

A very phased reintroduction to normality in tandem with mass vaccinations seems the safest bet but it will likely mean no full football stadiums for a long time yet

[Cunny Funt]

Yes but if all over 70s and vulnerable vaccinated which means 95% of deaths are eliminated and 80% hospitalised patients why would restrictions be kept
Why woukd any be kept?
Surely no reason too

Because hospitals can still be overrun and many people under 70 can still either die or suffer from long Covid

Even if all over 70s and front line workers were vaccinated - and that would clearly be a good thing - releasing restrictions when you get to that point is still a let it rip scenario for everybody else, and that could cause a public health catastrophe - it could also mean we would have to continually revaccinate populations, as the virus never disappears if restrictions are released and the pace of vaccinations would not be able to keep pace with the rate of transmission - immunity via vaccine would eventually wear off

It could also lead to mutations - it seems that the more the virus spreads, the more it mutates - we may be able to deal with the current UK and South African variations via the vaccines we now have, but who can say for certain that that will be the case in the future

A very phased reintroduction to normality in tandem with mass vaccinations seems the safest bet but it will likely mean no full football stadiums for a long time yet

200 to 500 is the most we had in stadiums since early March. Be interesting to see will those strict set attendances will be increased when restrictions are lifted, the amount vaccinated should play a part in any decisions made.

[whitegoodman]

Yes but if all over 70s and vulnerable vaccinated which means 95% of deaths are eliminated and 80% hospitalised patients why would restrictions be kept
Why woukd any be kept?
Surely no reason too

Because hospitals can still be overrun and many people under 70 can still either die or suffer from long Covid

Even if all over 70s and front line workers were vaccinated - and that would clearly be a good thing - releasing restrictions when you get to that point is still a let it rip scenario for everybody else, and that could cause a public health catastrophe - it could also mean we would have to continually revaccinate populations, as the virus never disappears if restrictions are released and the pace of vaccinations would not be able to keep pace with the rate of transmission - immunity via vaccine would eventually wear off

It could also lead to mutations - it seems that the more the virus spreads, the more it mutates - we may be able to deal with the current UK and South African variations via the vaccines we now have, but who can say for certain that that will be the case in the future

A very phased reintroduction to normality in tandem with mass vaccinations seems the safest bet but it will likely mean no full football stadiums for a long time yet

You would like to think that with seasonality involved and naturally less numbers coming into the summer then things could be lifted significantly when the over 70s are done.

Do they reckon everyone will be vaccinated by next winter ?