China Coronavirus

[GetOverTheBar]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/t-cell-covid-immunity-present-in-adults-six-months-after-first-infection

Potential good news

[Seaney]

There have been 9 more Covid-19 deaths in the 6 counties, including one person aged under 19.
840 new cases were also reported today, resulting from tests on 3,722 individuals, which is 22.5% positivity which isn't great.

yet again the 26 counties has less cases, 676, than the wee 6.

Lowest daily case number in the ROI since October 9th. Seven day average has fallen now for 4 days in a row.

Yet more evidence, as if it was needed, that lockdowns work

I'm just coming out of (apparently) one of the harshest lockdowns globally. Definitely worked

Lockdowns are painful and nobody wants them, but they clearly work as the best way to reduce cases of Covid, and therefore reduce hospital admissions from Covid, which can allow our Health Service (which already was only mediocre (being generous)) to deal with normal health requirements. Hopefully we'll continue down the route of cases coming down day-by-day and don't overact if there's an outlier one-off day which shows an increase or a too-good-to-be-true decrease.

They key will be how "we" react when we get the numbers down and move out of Level 5. I feel desperately sorry for those business owners and employees who are worst hit by the restrictions. We owe it to them to behave strictly in accordance with Level 2 and 3 (or whatever we move to) when we come out of Level 5.  And of course our Test and Trace system will be absolutely critical.

I understand we're close to bringing in the new antigen testing that is able to mean almost instant test results. Albeit it's not as reliable (and the current testing system isn't the most reliable!), so will be interesting to see how that develops.

More Covid tunnel vision.

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Lockdowns don't work.

Angelo, time to set out your stall.

Set out your proposed strategy. The steps, the likely death toll, the impact on the NHS, the impact on the economy. Let's hear it.

Every medical advisor to the government has got this wrong to date, what are your thoughts, your proposed strategy,  likely death toll, impact on the NHS, impact on the economy, lets hear it!  Or are you happy with the failing narrative of lockdown and the ridiculous rules which make little or no sense but to punish the most vulnerable in society?

[Milltown Row2]

There have been 9 more Covid-19 deaths in the 6 counties, including one person aged under 19.
840 new cases were also reported today, resulting from tests on 3,722 individuals, which is 22.5% positivity which isn't great.

yet again the 26 counties has less cases, 676, than the wee 6.

Lowest daily case number in the ROI since October 9th. Seven day average has fallen now for 4 days in a row.

Yet more evidence, as if it was needed, that lockdowns work

I'm just coming out of (apparently) one of the harshest lockdowns globally. Definitely worked

Lockdowns are painful and nobody wants them, but they clearly work as the best way to reduce cases of Covid, and therefore reduce hospital admissions from Covid, which can allow our Health Service (which already was only mediocre (being generous)) to deal with normal health requirements. Hopefully we'll continue down the route of cases coming down day-by-day and don't overact if there's an outlier one-off day which shows an increase or a too-good-to-be-true decrease.

They key will be how "we" react when we get the numbers down and move out of Level 5. I feel desperately sorry for those business owners and employees who are worst hit by the restrictions. We owe it to them to behave strictly in accordance with Level 2 and 3 (or whatever we move to) when we come out of Level 5.  And of course our Test and Trace system will be absolutely critical.

I understand we're close to bringing in the new antigen testing that is able to mean almost instant test results. Albeit it's not as reliable (and the current testing system isn't the most reliable!), so will be interesting to see how that develops.

More Covid tunnel vision.

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Lockdowns don't work.

Angelo, time to set out your stall.

Set out your proposed strategy. The steps, the likely death toll, the impact on the NHS, the impact on the economy. Let's hear it.

Every medical advisor to the government has got this wrong to date, what are your thoughts, your proposed strategy,  likely death toll, impact on the NHS, impact on the economy, lets hear it!  Or are you happy with the failing narrative of lockdown and the ridiculous rules which make little or no sense but to punish the most vulnerable in society?

It seems to me the most vulnerable in society (the elderly0 are being let down by people not giving a shit about this virus and wanting things opened up and carry on regardless..

I've a very good friend who every week throws out the same narrative , when your times up you times up! So I ask, if your daughter caught it and was very ill or worse would you have the same opinion, and she has!! Crazy, so I don't talk about it anymore as she'll be that we are all losing out and her view is that elderly people will die and flu is worse and blah blah

[LCohen]

There have been 9 more Covid-19 deaths in the 6 counties, including one person aged under 19.
840 new cases were also reported today, resulting from tests on 3,722 individuals, which is 22.5% positivity which isn't great.

yet again the 26 counties has less cases, 676, than the wee 6.

Lowest daily case number in the ROI since October 9th. Seven day average has fallen now for 4 days in a row.

Yet more evidence, as if it was needed, that lockdowns work

I'm just coming out of (apparently) one of the harshest lockdowns globally. Definitely worked

Lockdowns are painful and nobody wants them, but they clearly work as the best way to reduce cases of Covid, and therefore reduce hospital admissions from Covid, which can allow our Health Service (which already was only mediocre (being generous)) to deal with normal health requirements. Hopefully we'll continue down the route of cases coming down day-by-day and don't overact if there's an outlier one-off day which shows an increase or a too-good-to-be-true decrease.

They key will be how "we" react when we get the numbers down and move out of Level 5. I feel desperately sorry for those business owners and employees who are worst hit by the restrictions. We owe it to them to behave strictly in accordance with Level 2 and 3 (or whatever we move to) when we come out of Level 5.  And of course our Test and Trace system will be absolutely critical.

I understand we're close to bringing in the new antigen testing that is able to mean almost instant test results. Albeit it's not as reliable (and the current testing system isn't the most reliable!), so will be interesting to see how that develops.

More Covid tunnel vision.

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Lockdowns don't work.

Angelo, time to set out your stall.

Set out your proposed strategy. The steps, the likely death toll, the impact on the NHS, the impact on the economy. Let's hear it.

Every medical advisor to the government has got this wrong to date, what are your thoughts, your proposed strategy,  likely death toll, impact on the NHS, impact on the economy, lets hear it!  Or are you happy with the failing narrative of lockdown and the ridiculous rules which make little or no sense but to punish the most vulnerable in society?

I wonder where Angelo has gone on this one.

So firstly my reasons for posting the questions to Angelo.

He consistently alludes to things like:
There is an economic consequence to lockdowns
There is a mental health impact to lock downs
We just accept Flu
The transmissibility of COVID-19 is congruous with the flu

I could go on.

There is however no alternative plan and no recognition by Angelo that not locking down has an impact on mental health, the economy etc.

So that is where I am coming from.

Angelo picks up a line like WHO's critique of lockdowns and wilfully misinterprets that as a rejection of lockdowns when in reality it's a warning that if to don't take quick measures you will be forced to use lockdowns.

Angelo does this over and over again. It's only right that he should be challenged to put some basic framework to his ramblings. He is the one obsessed with death tolls ( chiefly re flu) as the sole barometer of success. I don't play that game.

As for my own views on lockdown I believe the current English lockdown is completely necessary. It should have been done earlier and if the correct steps are not taken now there is an increased likelihood that it will be needed again. I don't think anyone can rule it out being needed in the future. Personally I would expect one to overlap with February's mid term break.

The steps that need taken now include
An objective assessment of the capabilities of test, track and trace.
The identified gaps to be sorted. Probably need to look internationally for a functioning blueprint
A sensecheck on where all the various vaccines and treatments are at. We can't compromise on safety. The vaccine must be safe. But we can compromise on efficacy. During the winter period we can move ahead with vaccines and treatments that might only help 50% or even 40 or 30% of people. Any progress can be targeted on key workers and then the most vulnerable.
We need to pay those with positive tests to stay at home if they can't work from home.

But given you are using lines like every medical adviser has got this wrong I'm guessing I'm wasting my time

[Seaney]

It seems to me the most vulnerable in society (the elderly0 are being let down by people not giving a shit about this virus and wanting things opened up and carry on regardless..

I've a very good friend who every week throws out the same narrative , when your times up you times up! So I ask, if your daughter caught it and was very ill or worse would you have the same opinion, and she has!! Crazy, so I don't talk about it anymore as she'll be that we are all losing out and her view is that elderly people will die and flu is worse and blah blah

No idea what you are saying there - have you been on the beer?

[Seaney]

But given you are using lines like every medical adviser has got this wrong I'm guessing I'm wasting my time

I hate these massive pages of quotes - show me a single medical advisor who has gotten it correct with death predictions and the overwhelming of the NHS.

[Blowitupref]

The hospital situation has stabilised in the ROI.

Last Tuesday in hospital 354 and in ICU 38. Compared to now 307 and 42.

[GetOverTheBar]

Mass testing in Liverpool then. Liverpool has been one of the hotspots, for want of a better word since this whole thing kicked off.

Presume if you choose not to get tested, you must self isolate or would that be too much like common sense?

[Franko]

Angelo has scuttled back off under his rock.  But I'll give you a summary of his reply;

Random Insult
Acceptable Death
Mental health
Stupid scientists
Blowhard
Double digit multiples
WHO
Life expectancy
Random Insult
Domestic violence
Flu
Novel disease
Impossible to know
Wait and see
Random Insult
Anomaly in April
Another insult to finish

[LCohen]

But given you are using lines like every medical adviser has got this wrong I'm guessing I'm wasting my time

I hate these massive pages of quotes - show me a single medical advisor who has gotten it correct with death predictions and the overwhelming of the NHS.

I'm not aware of any death predictions by medical advisers. I can't point to anybody getting it right or wrong

[imtommygunn]

The hospitals in the north were at over 100% capacity last week. Granted now they're not however people have died which would have presumably freed up space plus we are in a lockdown period.  I would say that's pretty close to over run. Hopefully, hopefully, we are coming out the other side of this wave as hospital capacity is improving but I guess we will see over the next week or two. In addition to that there's ~350 in inpatients which has been growing while wiggle room for capacity has been growing so you'd have to assume that freeing up space from other procedures etc has allowed this to happen.

[Hound]

Mass testing in Liverpool then. Liverpool has been one of the hotspots, for want of a better word since this whole thing kicked off.

Presume if you choose not to get tested, you must self isolate or would that be too much like common sense?

Haven't read the detail on Liverpool but did read about Slovakia's mass testing of the whole population over 10 years of age. Total population is 3.6m

All voluntary. People in "at risk" categories were not part of it as they should be taking greater care anyway. It was the Antigen testing, which gives results in 15 minutes and doesn't require a lab to perform it. Not as good as a lab test but reasonably good.

Anyone who gets the test and passes the test gets a cert and they are free to go about their business as normal. They need to show the cert when they enter a pub, restaurant, etc.
Anyone without such a cert seems to be effectively in a Level 5 equivalent restriction.

Of course the test is a point-in-time test, so someone who is negative today could catch the virus tomorrow. But if they are only interacting with other people who have tested negative, then presumably the chance of catching the virus is reduced.

It'll be interesting to see how they get on.

[Seaney]

The problem about the testing is one has to rely on people waiting on results or getting positive results doing the right thing.

[Franko]

The problem about the testing is one has to rely on people waiting on results or getting positive results doing the right thing.

Very true.

And when you have people running around telling them "never worry, it's only the flu", it makes it very difficult to reinforce this requirement.

On the other hand, it helps that you only have to wait 15 minutes for this result.

The world will be watching this experiment very closely.

[GetOverTheBar]

Mass testing in Liverpool then. Liverpool has been one of the hotspots, for want of a better word since this whole thing kicked off.

Presume if you choose not to get tested, you must self isolate or would that be too much like common sense?

Haven't read the detail on Liverpool but did read about Slovakia's mass testing of the whole population over 10 years of age. Total population is 3.6m

All voluntary. People in "at risk" categories were not part of it as they should be taking greater care anyway. It was the Antigen testing, which gives results in 15 minutes and doesn't require a lab to perform it. Not as good as a lab test but reasonably good.

Anyone who gets the test and passes the test gets a cert and they are free to go about their business as normal. They need to show the cert when they enter a pub, restaurant, etc.
Anyone without such a cert seems to be effectively in a Level 5 equivalent restriction.

Of course the test is a point-in-time test, so someone who is negative today could catch the virus tomorrow. But if they are only interacting with other people who have tested negative, then presumably the chance of catching the virus is reduced.

It'll be interesting to see how they get on.

I don't think anyone would argue here on the first point in bold if that was something we followed here hypothetically? I mean you would have the odd one objecting to Govt having DNA (for varying reasons I suppose....going on our past here  ).

On the second point, I think over say, a 14 day period, maybe you get tested 3 times in that period? - it would certainly narrow the net on the Asymptomatic cases which are the ones that are causing the headache really. It would give greater data on where people have been in the meantime etc.

I hope the Slovakians set the example for the rest of Europe, it must be an awful pain in the hole to organise, but I think this is the only way to really start to properly firefight this thing head on as opposed to reactionary measures.