China Coronavirus

[RadioGAAGAA]

Those people with Covid tunnel vision have absolutely no interest in looking at the consequences of using lockdowns and restrictions to fight it, maybe you should look at the bigger picture for once.

Current case fatality rate here is 4% (time weighted for day of contraction).

I was going to say that is overly pessimistic and take 1% instead. But, if we followed your course (which you don't outline, but the assumption must be that it is light touch), then the health services would collapse and you would see 4% as a minimum death rate over the long term

Then with your world of minimal restrictions, how many get the virus? Half the population before herd immunity effects kick in? (Half being optimistic, usual thought train is around 70% of populace needs to be immune.)

So, half the population of the north is 1.8 million. Half of that is 900k. 4% of that is 36k people.

In 2018, 15,922 people died in the north. You are advocating doubling the annual death rate in response to worries over intangible forecasts elsewhere.


Big picture? You don't have a f**king clue. Not surprising the man that cannot grasp the difference between fractions and percentages cannot play with big numbers.

It's not my fault you don't understand the figures so the arrogance of you telling someone else they don't have a clue when you are displaying that exact trait yourself is something else.

I'm not advocating doubling the death total.

April is an outlier. Take April out of the equation and it's a steady enough year in terms of deaths. All across Europe Covid cases are doubling and trebling yet fatality rates are falling in double digit multiples, in the 30s and 40s in the likes of France and Belgium. So how you can come up with those figures is flabbergasting.

4% was the figure as of the date of that post (19th Oct). It has since declined to ~3%

In April, it was in excess of 20%. April has long since been taken out of the equation. If you'd bothered to look at my links, you'd have seen that.

At the rate we would need the health service to creak we would probably need to be getting 2k positive cases a day from 4-5 tests, the positive rate on tests is currently 20%, we would need to go to 40% for that to happen. New daily case rates have been steady now for the past 2-3 week which means active cases should stagnate and not rise unless we start returning 2k positive tests a day.

This aged well. 10 days later and the number of free beds across the north can be counted on your two hands.

There's absolutely no basis for a 4% rise in death rates. At present we have 0.11% of Covid Active Cases in ICU (not 4%, 0.11%). To reach ICU capacity we probably need an additional 11k in ACTIVE cases in the next fortnight to get to that point. In other words we would probably need about a 30% rise in cases in the next fortnight when all the data is actually pointing to daily case rates stabilising.

4% was the weighted death rate on 19th Oct. Nothing to do with ICU.

There is absolutely no evidence at all to say we can expect a repeat of April figures, none. Look all across Europe now - look at the rises in cases, look at the comparative death figures - all dropping by double digit multiples so to put a 4% fatality figure is fearmongering of the highest order and it does a severe disservice to vulnerable people who are impacted by the consequences of lockdowns and restrictions.

The mortality rate in the second wave is well below 1%

Since the 1st August we've had 63 Covid deaths and 21,741 Covid cases - that's a death rate of 0.29%. That's a death rate 13 times less than you have projected.

Not true. Even the current case fatality rate (which isn't weighted for date of contraction) is in excess of 2% and has steadied at that. Weighted case fatality rate is around 3% - it would be reasonable to anticipate a converge of the two over the long term. So rework my figures for a 2% death rate and you are still looking at 18k covid deaths - so the overall death rate in the north would double, half those composed of covid cases.

In Lombardy (and elsewhere), it was observed there was a significant spike in death rates once hospital capacity was exceeded.

Triage won't happen effectively and you will have people die at home before ever seeing the inside of a hospital - simply because the capacity to take them in, assess their needs and get them to an ICU bed (assuming it were even available) is not there.

So that 2% figure would rise again.

[RadioGAAGAA]

More Covid tunnel vision.

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Lockdowns don't work.

Lockdowns do work.

Can you please generate an estimated death rate increase due to your aforementioned concerns please?

See if it beats 18k over a year.

[Milltown Row2]

Angelo will be silent for a couple of pages now and come back in again with the seasonal flu domestic abuse line again..

Oh, and before Seaney says anything domestic abuse should never be neglected and the police service and support services are still working and people are not in lockdown

Any reports on Seasonal flu being reduced due to the fact that we are being more hygienic and washing hands more and socially distancing?

[armaghniac]

They work on a single perspective of reducing virus transmission but cause complete carnage to the economy, other health services, support services to vulnerable people, increased domestic violence cases and so on and so forth.

Stop doing this, it has gone beyond a joke at this stage, it isn't funny. Other health services benefit from any reduction in demand from Covid, and no rational person could claim otherwise.

[Rossfan]

Armaghniac use the ignore function and only converse with the adult posters.
I see a report on Altnagelvin looking at rationing oxygen!

[JoG2]

I see there's a planned demonstration in Derry City this weekend by Anne McCloskey and her merry band of looney bins 'Tyranny on Trial'.
# reject lockdowns
# reject the New Normal
# reject mandatory vaccines
# reject the billionaires 'Great Reset'.

(interesting they have dropped the anti-mask rhetoric of late)

I'm not on Facebook myself but have been told she has been asked on several occasions to announce who the '5 Irish speakers + a prominent English spokesperson' are. She is not forthcoming with any answers. Any guesses to what far right speakers show up?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

I see there's a planned demonstration in Derry City this weekend by Anne McCloskey and her merry band of looney bins 'Tyranny on Trial'.
# reject lockdowns
# reject the New Normal
# reject mandatory vaccines
# reject the billionaires 'Great Reset'.

(interesting they have dropped the anti-mask rhetoric of late)

I'm not on Facebook myself but have been told she has been asked on several occasions to announce who the '5 Irish speakers + a prominent English spokesperson' are. She is not forthcoming with any answers. Any guesses to what far right speakers show up?

It will be sad if the far right show up. Because its not a right v left issue at all but it has been manipulated by Antifa extremists and far right and their likes as such on social media. Some of the scenes in Dublin of masked left wingers with weapons was scary, to me they looked like the Casual Crews at England Football matches in the 90s. I came off Twitter after it, maniacs on both sides. Is there a suggestion that vaccines will be mandatory?

[Franko]

Angelo will be silent for a couple of pages now and come back in again with the seasonal flu domestic abuse line again..

Oh, and before Seaney says anything domestic abuse should never be neglected and the police service and support services are still working and people are not in lockdown

Any reports on Seasonal flu being reduced due to the fact that we are being more hygienic and washing hands more and socially distancing?

+1

Waste of time.

You are debating with someone who just enjoys arguing and has all day to do it.

He's either unemployed or in a public sector waster role where no one cares that he does fcuk all else.

Most likely the former, as you probably need GCSE Maths to even get one of those jobs.  And that clearly didn't happen.

Maybe that explains the obvious rage issues.

[JimStynes]

How long before schools are closed again?

[GetOverTheBar]

How long before schools are closed again?

Surprised they are to reopen Monday. Looks like it will be a prolonged December off then.

[JimStynes]

Rushmere shopping centre has been packed this week. No point closing the schools when everyone is going about their business.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Any reports on Seasonal flu being reduced due to the fact that we are being more hygienic and washing hands more and socially distancing?

I think it'll be essentially wiped out, as the winter flu (here) tends to originate from the southern hemisphere and come via all the extensive air travel.  [I think we then recycle it back down there after its had a chance to evolve itself over our winter]

So flu this year should be the same variants as last year (mostly).

[GetOverTheBar]

Rushmere shopping centre has been packed this week. No point closing the schools when everyone is going about their business.

Is this a serious point?

What do you want them to do? People are allowed to go to shops.

If they are all wearing masks (even the makeshift ones that offer little to no protection) they are doing no harm.

[Milltown Row2]

Providing they sanitise,  shops only allow so many in, people socially distance it's fine, had people done this at the start we wouldn't be in this position!!

[armaghniac]

Providing they sanitise,  shops only allow so many in, people socially distance it's fine, had people done this at the start we wouldn't be in this position!!

yes, but a lot of shops are more interested in packing in the customers than whether they socially distance or wear masks.