China Coronavirus

[Angelo]

I see the crank of choice for the Covid deniers, Dr. Martin Feely, lied outright in his latest Irish Times article (he's being silenced, doncha know, writing very prominent articles in the Irish Times as he is)

This is a thorough demolition of Dr. Feely's "talking points"

----------------

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1320762629229629440

Yesterday the @IrishTimes again published a #Covid19 piece that had not been fact checked. Piece by Martin Feely suggests the WHO had put forward a mortality of 0.1386%. This is untrue & this false claim was already directly addressed by WHO Oct 12th /1

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1315997403762262016

There been a lot of misleading claims that the WHO suggested a low IFR for #Covid19 When specifically asked about that Oct 12th WHO says research converges at an IFR of 0.6% full segment at 19.27

The piece then refers to a a paper by "research expert Dr J Ioannidis which reports an overall Case Fatality Rate of 0.27%". But Ioannidis paper gave an IFR not CFR estimate of 0.27%, this is a significant error in itself as well as providing two contradictory estimates /2

WHO says IFR research converges on an IFR of 0.6% so both Martin's claims are misleading.  The WHO bulletin is not a policy statement but collects research of interest, presumably the Ioannidis paper was interesting for being an outlier with low IFR but about that.. /3

Ioannidis is somewhat infamous for claiming early in the pandemic that IFR was 0.02-0.04%, about 1/10th of the current claim.  He's one of a number of media savvy researchers who got a lot of airtime because their low IFR estimates aligned with business interests /4

His latest study still has an IFR less than half of the 0.6% the WHO says other research is converging on.  The reason appears to be because of the way he selected what research he included and excluded in this review as detailed in this thread /5

All this is very complex which is all the more why the responsibility is on the so called paper of record to fact check pieces like this.  It is not at all reasonable to expect the average reader to be able to do so, indeed the reader is not warned this hasn't been done /6


Martin opens with an ironic in the light of the above warning that much commentary is based on a "lack of understanding of Covid realities". Yet he goes on to question why cases are an important metric despite the very simple reality that they tell you how many are infectious /7

Cases also indicate how many people will be hospitalised in the future, will need ICU & perhaps most importantly how many will die.  There is a very long lag between cases and deaths so a basic reality is that waiting for deaths to alert you would doom you to many many more /8

It's only 3-4 weeks after Leo suggested copying the 'cases don't really matter' approach Belgium had adopted but now the butchers bill for doing so has started to become clear  as Belgium hits ICU number beyond what our public system has /9

Dividing by 2.3 the (Belgian) numbers in Ireland would mean
2100 in hospital, 185 new yesterday
330 in ICU, 21 new yesterday
5400 daily new infection
18 daily deaths

Martin, after warning abt scaremongering goes on to undermine hope that vaccine is on the way or that it could make much of a difference. In fact vaccine findings are expected in the next 2-3 months with very large quantities already under production /10

He then misrepresents WHO again by claiming they say lockdowns don't work.  This isn't correct, they correctly say they should be a last resort & the sort of testing to discover cases that Martin don't understand, along with the measures he opposes are 1st line of defence /11

He says "The number admitted to hospital in Dublin increased slightly over the past 4 weeks" when in fact over the last month those in hospital with Covid have increased a not very slight 350%. Again surely a claim that should have been fact checked by
@IrishTimes
/12

He then again confuses CFR & IFR in the conclusion referring to a CFR for flu in 2018 that at 2.14% was "almost 10-fold higher than for Covid-19". The CFR for Covid in Ireland is not 0.214 but 3.3% - again fact checking should have picked this up /13

The only reason the 2018 flu has a CFR of 2.14% is precisely because unlike Covid only the sick were tested for it. If the same was applied to Covid19 the CFR in Ireland would be around 15-20%, it is lower only because those cases Martin didn't want counted are  /14

Martin's article is an example of sunk costs fallacy, once someone takes a bad position they tend to dig further into it. That's his excuse but there really isn't an excuse for the last of fact checking by the Irish Times, and not for the first time

The media have taken a similar infotainment approach on #Covid19 as they have to Climate Change.  Instead of providing representative fact checked explainers of the science to enable public understanding they present this sort of debate with outlier positions for clicks /16

It doesn't even reflect the publics position, polls show that runs between 4 and 6 to 1 in favour of the restrictions. Creating an impression of a 50:50 debate only makes sense if you are a business lobbyist valuing profit over lives /17

That seems to be a very emotional response that doesn't really have substance to it.

Dr Feely's original take was much more grounded and rational.

[trileacman]

FFS, lads. China can mass test 4.7 million people in a few days because China is f**king massive with virtually limitless resources.

There are 1,393 million people in China.
There are 6.8 million people in Ireland.

Proportionally, what China is doing is like Ireland testing the whole of Omagh or Mullingar over a few days. It could be done, but unlike in China, COVID is everywhere here so there's no point focussing all your attention on one town.

This mass testing idea is just naive nonsense with our current available resources.

And, even if in a parallel universe, where testing everyone was possible - what's the point? Huge numbers are currently running around in the full knowledge that they have the virus and don't give a shite. These selfish pricks would just reinfect the populace as quick as you thought you had a handle on things.

Slovakia are going to do it.

They're not really.

China's mass testing uses PCR. It will be reliable, but they are presumably pulling in lab and staffing capacity from all over their massive country to make this happen.

Slovakia are using volunteers to roll out some rapid antigen tests, none of which have been proven to be very reliable. A lot of countries had a look at these earlier in the year and decided they weren't worth the effort.

From what I've read online, many in Slovakia seem to be dismissing the exercise as a PR stunt pulled to mask some big failings in other areas. No COVID app, no track & trace worth talking about, insufficient lab testing capacity, etc.

Maybe what Slovakia are doing will help their situation, but it's not really testing as we've come to understand it.

Well the numbers here in the north are getting out of control, whatever we are doing (Nothing) doesn't seem to be bringing the numbers down. The government here is a pile of dung, with absolutely no balls to make a decision that may hurt their vote!

Playing politics with peoples lives.

For a civilised first world part of Europe we've a third world approach

There's 2 consecutive mistakes in your last sentence.

[sid waddell]

So much for herd immunity

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=%40BBCNews&at_custom4=8797F224-17E8-11EB-BB47-45F04744363C

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers.

Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.

The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.

They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.

But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.

It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.

"Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we're only three months after our first [round of tests] and we're already showing a 26% decline in antibodies," said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers.

The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19.

The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus.

[GetOverTheBar]

Very, very few cases of people catching it twice however.

[Milltown Row2]

Very, very few cases of people catching it twice however.

Think there was 5 known cases.. which considering the amount that have caught it is extremely low

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

So much for herd immunity

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=%40BBCNews&at_custom4=8797F224-17E8-11EB-BB47-45F04744363C

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers.

Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.

The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.

They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.

But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.

It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.

"Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we're only three months after our first [round of tests] and we're already showing a 26% decline in antibodies," said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers.

The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19.

The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus.

It will be another headline tomorrow

[LeoMc]

A lot of one off studies make the headlines and a lot of people taking their absolute truth from them if it fits their existing beliefs.
The Bel Tel appears to be avoiding this approach by giving prominence to the expert views of Tyrone boutique owners on the suitability of masks.
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/news/ive-read-every-study-on-masks-solution-worse-than-virus-says-tyrone-fashion-boss-protester-39663755.html

Probably should be on WTF thread.

[johnnycool]

A lot of one off studies make the headlines and a lot of people taking their absolute truth from them if it fits their existing beliefs.
The Bel Tel appears to be avoiding this approach by giving prominence to the expert views of Tyrone boutique owners on the suitability of masks.
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/news/ive-read-every-study-on-masks-solution-worse-than-virus-says-tyrone-fashion-boss-protester-39663755.html

Probably should be on WTF thread.

Saw that and was wondering who in their right mind gives Joe Public a platform to air their ill informed and potentially dangerous views in public.

Ask her about the impact on the business and all that, fair enough but leave the epidemiology to the experts.

[armaghniac]

That seems to be a very emotional response that doesn't really have substance to it.

Dr Feely's original take was much more grounded and rational.

So your response to a considered article is simply to state that black is white. That figures.

On the subject of masks there was an interesting study in the US comparing counties or cities in the same state when one had a mask mandate and the other didn't and there was a marked difference in Covid infections. 

[Denn Forever]

which way?  better or worse with?

[GetOverTheBar]

A lot of one off studies make the headlines and a lot of people taking their absolute truth from them if it fits their existing beliefs.
The Bel Tel appears to be avoiding this approach by giving prominence to the expert views of Tyrone boutique owners on the suitability of masks.
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/news/ive-read-every-study-on-masks-solution-worse-than-virus-says-tyrone-fashion-boss-protester-39663755.html

Probably should be on WTF thread.

Saw that and was wondering who in their right mind gives Joe Public a platform to air their ill informed and potentially dangerous views in public.

Ask her about the impact on the business and all that, fair enough but leave the epidemiology to the experts.

I read bits and pieces of that article. I don't think anyone is doubting the effectiveness of surgical masks or the likes of KN95 type masks.

Homemade masks however, there is the argument to be made they are simple not worth a jot. Between the premier league type snoods some wear, others pull their tops up over their mouths and then the scarves that are over the face but in no way actually stopping anything going in or out.

I'm not an anti masker or conspiracist whatsoever but the virus is rising especially in Ireland and we've all seen people wearing masks for some months now - personally I think they feel that makes them immune to the basic principles of hand washing and keeping distance but I'm certainly not sold on the effectiveness of anything other than the surgical / medical type.

[armaghniac]

which way?  better or worse with?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/us/coronavirus-today-briefing.html
"counties that have forced residents to wear masks in public have had fewer infections."

[Angelo]

That seems to be a very emotional response that doesn't really have substance to it.

Dr Feely's original take was much more grounded and rational.

So your response to a considered article is simply to state that black is white. That figures.

On the subject of masks there was an interesting study in the US comparing counties or cities in the same state when one had a mask mandate and the other didn't and there was a marked difference in Covid infections.

Nope, I'm stating the very people who put forward that experts are infallible should be careful when they use self-titled anarchists to debunk respected medical professionals with assumptions. They could be accused of hypocrisy.

Dr Feeley has made some important classifications on Covid and he's not a denier, he is someone who thinks that lockdowns have wider reaching and more consequences than Covid and there is merit to having that viewpoint put forward.

[Milltown Row2]

What's your views now Angelo on the number of cases and limited ICU beds to possibly cover everyone?

Oh and we know the shortage on the NHS, been like that for years

[Seaney]

What's your views now Angelo on the number of cases and limited ICU beds to possibly cover everyone?

Oh and we know the shortage on the NHS, been like that for years

What's your views on cancer patients not getting treatment, millions of GP appointments cancelled, irreversible damage to vulnerable individuals mental health, the increase in suicide, abused stuck at home with abusers?