China Coronavirus

[Seaney]

You should write a thesis on this.

They are a necessary evil when things have got out of control. They are not a long term solution. Everyone knows that but when things are spiraling then what's the alternative. The north's stats is in terms of hospital capacity we're at 95%.

They are always at capacity  - 22,000 die on Northern Ireland health service waiting list in five years - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/22000-die-on-northern-ireland-health-service-waiting-list-in-five-years-38869044.html imagine the stats for the next 5 years, but there are 55 in hospital with covid!

[sid waddell]

The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

It is a headline one would expect to see in the Sun, disproportionate and made with the only rational to get a reaction, it is quite pathetic that folk go down this route - there is no end game here - no vaccine will come to our aid, we have to learn to live with it, but you conclude that that means let it rip!

we tried living with it... numbers increased again after lockdown 1 so living with it is effectively lerting it rip or herd immunity approach..

if there is a successful way to live with it i am sure we wpuld all love to hear it and so would the governments of the world.

We tried living with it?

Cases increased.

0.11 are in ICU.

Sweden are living with it at present. Their 14 day incidence rate is currently much lower than the rest of Europe.

What happens next time we come out of lockdown? Numbers surge back up again and we lock back down again, how on earth is this a viable short term solution. Crossing our fingers and hoping a vaccine comes is not a viable solution, it's absolutely insane.

bery selective quoting.. you can speculate to back you your viewpoint but suddenly its all guesswork when i ask you to example your living wiyh covid approach... also you stidys and experts are trustworthy but any that disagree with your opinion is guesswork!!!

, i am glad  that in the above post you finally acknowledge that if we come out of lockdown cases will surge back up again, when we go back to living with covid.. i.e your approach...

so your apprich will continue  the surge and our health is not capable of dealing with. as for you social distanicng washing hands etc.. we are doing that now it hasnt worked as people dont adhere for a variety of reasons..

finally, there are things we can do to support people with dperession, suffers of addiction or  domestic violance etc. we did it before and it still presists and we can do more if there is a will either during or after lockdown.

Selective.

You keeping pointing out to speculation but all you have offered to counter that is your speculation. I find it staggering you cannot see the irony there.

What also can't be sustained is coming in and out of lockdowns, lockdowns haven't worked - we went into one, came out of it and are now going back into one. So please God tell me, how the last lockdown actually managed to work?

There aren't things we can do to support them, domestic violence cases will inevitably rise with lockdowns and there's not a whole pile you can do?

So what's your strategy - remain in lockdown until there's a vaccine - how is that any sort of progressive long term solution?

Lockdowns do work. The first one worked perfectly, it got the R rate down so the NHS could cope.  Hopefully this one will work as well. We'll probably need another short one around Christmas and maybe in February before the vaccine is rolled out in spring.

No they don't, they are a stop gap solution that have absolutely massive societal consequences. The WHO have came out recently and said governments should not be using lockdowns as their sole approach to handle the virus. What happens when we come out of the next lockdown? Numbers surge again and we go into another lockdown?

Lockdowns DO NOT work. They have huge consequences for society.

But when you say lockdowns don't work, you're deliberately misrepresenting what the WHO said, and unfortunately this has been a real problem with the "let it rip" mob - it's disinformation

Of course lockdowns have consequences and now that we're seven or eight months into this, they shouldn't be your primary mode of control - which is what the WHO actually said - but they absolutely do work in terms of what they are there to do, which is to reduce the case numbers

And if they are needed, well, they have to be implemented

Nobody has yet pointed to a lockdown anywhere in the world which has failed in this regard

The reason we have to lock down now is because that is the only option left open to us

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

[Seaney]

The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

It is a headline one would expect to see in the Sun, disproportionate and made with the only rational to get a reaction, it is quite pathetic that folk go down this route - there is no end game here - no vaccine will come to our aid, we have to learn to live with it, but you conclude that that means let it rip!

we tried living with it... numbers increased again after lockdown 1 so living with it is effectively lerting it rip or herd immunity approach..

if there is a successful way to live with it i am sure we wpuld all love to hear it and so would the governments of the world.

We tried living with it?

Cases increased.

0.11 are in ICU.

Sweden are living with it at present. Their 14 day incidence rate is currently much lower than the rest of Europe.

What happens next time we come out of lockdown? Numbers surge back up again and we lock back down again, how on earth is this a viable short term solution. Crossing our fingers and hoping a vaccine comes is not a viable solution, it's absolutely insane.

bery selective quoting.. you can speculate to back you your viewpoint but suddenly its all guesswork when i ask you to example your living wiyh covid approach... also you stidys and experts are trustworthy but any that disagree with your opinion is guesswork!!!

, i am glad  that in the above post you finally acknowledge that if we come out of lockdown cases will surge back up again, when we go back to living with covid.. i.e your approach...

so your apprich will continue  the surge and our health is not capable of dealing with. as for you social distanicng washing hands etc.. we are doing that now it hasnt worked as people dont adhere for a variety of reasons..

finally, there are things we can do to support people with dperession, suffers of addiction or  domestic violance etc. we did it before and it still presists and we can do more if there is a will either during or after lockdown.

Selective.

You keeping pointing out to speculation but all you have offered to counter that is your speculation. I find it staggering you cannot see the irony there.

What also can't be sustained is coming in and out of lockdowns, lockdowns haven't worked - we went into one, came out of it and are now going back into one. So please God tell me, how the last lockdown actually managed to work?

There aren't things we can do to support them, domestic violence cases will inevitably rise with lockdowns and there's not a whole pile you can do?

So what's your strategy - remain in lockdown until there's a vaccine - how is that any sort of progressive long term solution?

Lockdowns do work. The first one worked perfectly, it got the R rate down so the NHS could cope.  Hopefully this one will work as well. We'll probably need another short one around Christmas and maybe in February before the vaccine is rolled out in spring.

The NHS is under pressure every year due to government cuts, the nightingale hospitals remained largely empty - in that time all hospital appointments were cancelled, cancer diagnosis were missed, cancer treatment were stopped, my mother fell and broke her hip at Easter, I wasn't allowed in to see her but went to drop bags down on a Saturday evening A&E was empty - I was the only none medical person knocking around, disproportionate response is an understatement.

The nightingale hospitals remained largely empty due to the lockdown reducing the numbers of severe cases of Covid, surely a plus in anybody's interpretation, well anybody half wise that is.

The narrative has well and truly been instilled in folk here, the nightingale was for the surge, the surge didn't happen so why was all other treatment cancelled, I personally know a doctor who was sent to a covid ward every Thursday and there was no one there she did ABSOULTELY NOTHING so who saw her patients whilst she was there?

[Seaney]

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.

[trueblue1234]

The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

It is a headline one would expect to see in the Sun, disproportionate and made with the only rational to get a reaction, it is quite pathetic that folk go down this route - there is no end game here - no vaccine will come to our aid, we have to learn to live with it, but you conclude that that means let it rip!

we tried living with it... numbers increased again after lockdown 1 so living with it is effectively lerting it rip or herd immunity approach..

if there is a successful way to live with it i am sure we wpuld all love to hear it and so would the governments of the world.

We tried living with it?

Cases increased.

0.11 are in ICU.

Sweden are living with it at present. Their 14 day incidence rate is currently much lower than the rest of Europe.

What happens next time we come out of lockdown? Numbers surge back up again and we lock back down again, how on earth is this a viable short term solution. Crossing our fingers and hoping a vaccine comes is not a viable solution, it's absolutely insane.

bery selective quoting.. you can speculate to back you your viewpoint but suddenly its all guesswork when i ask you to example your living wiyh covid approach... also you stidys and experts are trustworthy but any that disagree with your opinion is guesswork!!!

, i am glad  that in the above post you finally acknowledge that if we come out of lockdown cases will surge back up again, when we go back to living with covid.. i.e your approach...

so your apprich will continue  the surge and our health is not capable of dealing with. as for you social distanicng washing hands etc.. we are doing that now it hasnt worked as people dont adhere for a variety of reasons..

finally, there are things we can do to support people with dperession, suffers of addiction or  domestic violance etc. we did it before and it still presists and we can do more if there is a will either during or after lockdown.

Selective.

You keeping pointing out to speculation but all you have offered to counter that is your speculation. I find it staggering you cannot see the irony there.

What also can't be sustained is coming in and out of lockdowns, lockdowns haven't worked - we went into one, came out of it and are now going back into one. So please God tell me, how the last lockdown actually managed to work?

There aren't things we can do to support them, domestic violence cases will inevitably rise with lockdowns and there's not a whole pile you can do?

So what's your strategy - remain in lockdown until there's a vaccine - how is that any sort of progressive long term solution?

Lockdowns do work. The first one worked perfectly, it got the R rate down so the NHS could cope.  Hopefully this one will work as well. We'll probably need another short one around Christmas and maybe in February before the vaccine is rolled out in spring.

The NHS is under pressure every year due to government cuts, the nightingale hospitals remained largely empty - in that time all hospital appointments were cancelled, cancer diagnosis were missed, cancer treatment were stopped, my mother fell and broke her hip at Easter, I wasn't allowed in to see her but went to drop bags down on a Saturday evening A&E was empty - I was the only none medical person knocking around, disproportionate response is an understatement.

This is worthy of discussion. And I do think the NHS need to review how they are handling on going treatments of patients. As a complete shutdown is not right in my eyes. I think it needs to try to keep moving. However there has to be an understanding that NHS workers need to be protected as well, so there will be delays as compared to none covid times. I think some Doctors and surgeons have actually come out to say that they need to try and keep things moving as the backlog will be impossible otherwise. And I would hope that this is something that is being looked at.
One of the best ways of doing this is reducing the strain on the NHS so that more and more operations and treatments can be accommodated. One of the best ways of reducing the strain on the NHS is to reduce the impact of Covid. Covid patients ARE taking up a disproportionate segment of the NHS because they get priority. This happens with none covid patients as well. You can be scheduled for an operation and find out there's been a car crash and the theater is in use and have to be re-scheduled. If something urgent comes in then priorities change within hospitals. That's why reducing the numbers coming to the hospitals is vital. Lockdowns are far from ideal, and if there is a better method of reducing those numbers then I would love to hear it. But if the number of hospitalisations continue to increase, then something has to be done or cancer patients, selective surgeries etc will all be cancelled anyway AND we'll have a covid nightmare on top of that.

[Angelo]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

[imtommygunn]

You should write a thesis on this.

They are a necessary evil when things have got out of control. They are not a long term solution. Everyone knows that but when things are spiraling then what's the alternative. The north's stats is in terms of hospital capacity we're at 95%.

They are always at capacity  - 22,000 die on Northern Ireland health service waiting list in five years - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/22000-die-on-northern-ireland-health-service-waiting-list-in-five-years-38869044.html imagine the stats for the next 5 years, but there are 55 in hospital with covid!

There are 286 in hospital with covid.

[imtommygunn]

(N.B. There 120 14-16 days ago - possibly less but I can't find the history)

[sid waddell]

So Micheál Martin confirmed its the suppress and release strategy until "a safe vaccine is found".

Ouch...that's a serous roll of the dice .

3 weeks in lockdown then 3 weeks off then back in for an arbitrary amount of time is the worst scenario for anyone trying to run a business in the hospitality sector as no one knows whether they are coming or going so no one can confidently book a table or a room anywhere 3 weeks in advance. The business may or may not still be opened and the people who own or work in the business may or may not be entitled to some payment but they have no customers either way. Even when businesses where opened for a few weeks the rules ensured they couldn't really make a go off it. Max of 6 people, pub closed by 10, no music, nobody too drunk, only talk to person in your group, now talk of outdoor only venues in the middle of winter mean there was no appeal in going out anyhow. The same for anyone thinking of going abroad or coming to Ireland. It doesnt matter which countries are on the green or amber list or whatever.  Most people wont go anywhere as they dont want the hassle of guessing what different rules will be in place a week from now.  There are whole sectors of the economy screwed and the on off restrictions and rules that go along with it are only making it worse.

Sin é. You can't have party pubs in the middle of pandemic, that is as good as it gets.
The trick is to ensure that the R after the current lockdown is 1.2 instead of 1.4 then the vaccine will be coming on stream before another lockdown is needed.

Patrick Vallance said today there wouldn't be a vaccine until at least the spring

There was a guy from whatever umbrella group represents the restaurants on the radio last week calling for the lockdown to be implemented now in the hope it would be lifted for the pre-Christmas period

Said 30% of his business for the year is in the weeks leading up to Christmas

Can see us going back to Level 5 in January

Ultimately this endless circle of trap and release is not sustainable but the will is not there to put in place a strategy to open up but keep the virus down

It's rather worrying

It's chaotic, we either learn to live with the virus or we lock ourselves away for an infinite amount of time until it's done which seems mad.

But this open/close/open/close strategy is completely for the birds.

There simply must not be another lockdown, the next time we come out there should be no way we go back in.

Live with the virus means you come up with a suppression strategy so you can open up safely

It does not mean open up and allow the virus to spread wildly

This is what Dr. Nabarro from the WHO was talking about

People seem to be conflating the first wave with the second wave.

Since August 63 people have died from Covid in the O6.

A little less than one per day, have we any barometer what level of death is acceptable. If we find out in January and February that we had an extra 70 incidents of suicides, if domestic violence cases were up 80%, if mental health problems increased, if addictions relapses increased 40% - at which point would we say that the implementation of lockdowns and restrictive measures are actually having a much more negative societal impact than they are having a positive one.

So unless Governments have some break even point identified, some form of acceptable Covid risk identified then we are in serious bother as a society.

We live with seasonal flu, it puts the health system under pressure every year, it kills people, causes long lasting health problems - but governments clearly feel all those risks are acceptable to a certain level so what I want to know is what is deemed acceptable with Covid? What are we aiming for? The messaging from government is the most worrying aspect out of all of this, it's close your eyes and hope for the best. Repeat failed strategies and hope for the best.

Covid is not seasonal flu

It does not peak in January and then go away

It keeps going relentlessly

But that is not to say that there may not be a seasonal element to it

You are making cast iron assumptions based on totally incomplete evidence

Actually, what you are assuming is that the virus has mutated into a significantly less severe form

There is no evidence for that

The apparently lower death rate currently is likely down to dynamics we do not fully understand

Maybe the old and vulnerable are protecting themselves much more effectively than in the spring and it's largely the less vulnerable who are currently getting it

Masks could be playing a role in how serious a viral load people are receiving

Maybe the way the virus is being treated in hospitals is slightly more effective than in spring

Yet in the US deaths are continuing to tick along at a pretty steady rate and have been doing so since the summer

The more the virus spreads, the harder it is to protect the old and vulnerable and then there's a very good chance the assumptions you are making about death rates will look very foolish

I'm not making any assumptions.

What am I saying is that people are becoming consumed by a virus which current data shows fatality rates at around 0.29% of positive cases - probably lower as testing is probably not catching close to the true amount of positive cases and currently has an ICU incidence rate of 0.11%. That is what the current data tells us. There are no assumptions there

And once again, complete and utter ignorance of the widespread and long term detrimental consequences to so many vulnerable factions of society that lockdowns and restrictions bring.

So I will ask you again, at what measure do we say there is an acceptable level of risk and death with Covid, like we do with seasonal flu every year? Not one person has addressed this yet, not one. I'll have all the blowhards here, sniping away like the cowards they are but when they are pushed for an answer on that, their yellow underbelly is there for all to see.

I've made the point that we live with flu, it causes death, it causes health problems, it puts strain on the health service - yet we accept all that with it. We accept the deaths, we accept the health problems, we accept the strain on the health service, we accept the level of risk. So at which point does Covid carry an acceptable level of risk? That one is for all the blowhards here, have any of the posters happy enough to take their snide shots a pair of balls big enough to answer that question? Anyone?

But you're refusing to elaborate on why you think death rates are currently lower than in spring

It seems clear that you really do believe the virus has mutated into a significantly less serious form

If you don't believe that, then there has been literally no point to your last 20 pages of posts

I don't know. I would say it was something to do with being taken on the hop by it, no preparation, lack of knowledge in treating patients, insufficient PPE in hospitals that might have spread it to vulnerable patients. It could be anything but the way the data is trending is encouraging in terms of the risk of the virus. For a fit and healthy person, the chances of dying from it seem very remote.

The only observation I have made is that the virus is significantly level fatal in the second wave than the first. That's what the data says. It could be for a number of different reasons but you haven't a clue why and neither do I.

Some of those things could be factors

But if they are, what happens if you run out of hospital capacity?

Any improvements in treatment would then become moot because not everybody would be treated in hospital

If the virus has declined so much in terms of deadliness, why are we even still looking for a vaccine?

Because the virus hasn't declined in terms of deadliness, it's still the same virus

[Seaney]

You should write a thesis on this.

They are a necessary evil when things have got out of control. They are not a long term solution. Everyone knows that but when things are spiraling then what's the alternative. The north's stats is in terms of hospital capacity we're at 95%.

They are always at capacity  - 22,000 die on Northern Ireland health service waiting list in five years - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/22000-die-on-northern-ireland-health-service-waiting-list-in-five-years-38869044.html imagine the stats for the next 5 years, but there are 55 in hospital with covid!

There are 286 in hospital with covid.

Apologies I was quoting from the War Zone Altnagelvin Covid unit, them additional few hundred in a population of 1.8 million has shut me up.

[sid waddell]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

Sweden had 1,180 cases a few days ago

They are still weeks behind us in their wave because they took longer to come out of their first wave

From what I can make out there is growing anger in Sweden at how they've handled things

[imtommygunn]

You're a very angry man Seaney 

If you include ICU you're a magnitude of 6 down...

I see where you're coming from and I think it's went a bit mad with the lockdowns but if it keeps going how it's going this last few weeks we're in big bother. What were the stats today? 1765 NHS staff / health workers are currently off sick? Basically something needs done and they don't know what to do.

[sid waddell]

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.

What are you proposing to fix the problem?

[Angelo]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

Sweden had 1,180 cases a few days ago

They are still weeks behind us in their wave because they took longer to come out of their first wave

From what I can make out there is growing anger in Sweden at how they've handled things

Nope, Sweden never entered draconian lockdown measures, they will have a more steady flow of the virus.

When you cage an animal and then release it into the wild, what happens?

We need to learn to live with it. The government strategy seems to be lockdown to get numbers down before we open up and enter another lockdown. The consequences of this strategy is going to be absolutely catastrophic on society.

The current data shows the fatality rates of the virus has dropped by double digit multiples since the first wave, we don't know why but that's what it shows.

[Seaney]

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.

What are you proposing to fix the problem?

Let folk live.