China Coronavirus

[bigarsedkeeper]

Do building sites stay open during level 5?

[Jeepers Creepers]

Do building sites stay open during level 5?

Only if you wear your county colours.

[armaghniac]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

A move to Level 5 has caught all journalists by surprise when all were saying level 4 earlier. Shows a lot of second guessing was going on.

It will be level 4.x anyway, either 4+ or 5-. Best to get on with things.

[Angelo]

Your last line is complete and utter speculation that you can't qualify.

As opposed to:

the consequences having everything consumed by Covid creates and your answer completely ignores that. The vulnerable in our society, those with mental and physical handciaps, those alone and vulnerable, recovering addicts cut off from their supports, people with mental health problems cut off from their supports, the rise in domestic violence cases, the problems that young children will inevitably have from living in this world

You are the one making the accusation. Back it up with some figures or STFU.

What was explained 550 pages ago was at a time before fatality rates had dropped in double digit multiples across Europe. Your whole premise is based on complete ignorance and you're too arrogant to stand back actually read your own nonsense.

Reach capacity in hospitals and where do you think fatality rates are going to go to?

Of course the number in ICU have went up, you halfwit. Cases have been rising the past month but daily new cases are now beginning to level out and you should then see active cases level out. If you had 20k new cases 2 weeks ago and you have 20k new cases this week then there should not be sufficient movement in active cases. Have you actually managed to grasp that now or do you need me to explain it to you further?

30th Sept, tot number of covid cases: 12,346
18th Oct, tot number of covid cases:  28,040

2.3x increase in cases, 3.2x increase in ICU needs. The two do not directly correspond, they never do. Of course - such is beyond the simpleton.

Cases have levelled off more or less in that past fortnight, we are not jumping to from 1k in daily new cases to 3k in daily new cases.

I am making the accusation, yes and you are completely ignoring the negative impacts of lockdowns, the WHO have warned governments against using lockdowns as their only measures to combat the virus and that is all governments seem to be doing. To be fair to the Slovaks they are now implementing a mass testing regime.

But here are some facts on lockdowns and restrictive measures:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/17/domestic-abuse-surged-in-lockdown-panorama-investigation-finds-coronavirus
Domestic violence cases surged.

https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2020/30/suicide-deaths-forecast-for-13-7-increase/

Forecasted 14% rise in suicides in Australia due to lockdown

The evidence of job losses, financial hardship and small business owners losing their livelihoods that doesn't need any article to support it.

https://www.priorygroup.com/media-centre/priory-expert-explains-why-the-current-lockdown-can-unlock-triggers-for-recovering-addicts-and-what-they-can-do

The impacts of lockdown and restrictions on recovering addicts

https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2020/08/the-covid-19-lockdown-is-breaking-families-of-people-with-disability/

The impact of lockdown on those with disabilities

But you want to give all these people impacted by lockdown the two fingers? At what cost? Can you qualify what benefits getting consumed by Covid will gain at those who are impacted by lockdown and restrictions above.

It's about the greater good and what we have seen is that fatality rates all across Europe have fallen from double digit multiples in the second wave, when are we going look at those who are detrimentally impacted by lockdown restrictions, vulnerable people who are being ignored and put in harms way as governments are consumed by a virus that more recent data shows is nowhere near as fatal as was first feared.

Can you address those points?

The fatality rates will rise but how qualifiable is it that these people are dying with Covid, if you have someone who is terminally ill with cancer and gets Covid - it's not Covid that killed them. The chances of Covid killing a fit and healthy person are extremely remote, most of people who die with are extremely elderly, with underlying health conditions, many of whom have a terminal illness or an extremely loss life expectancy. As glib as that may sound we have no fear of subjecting these people to the seasonal flu every year - why is that we suddenly care when it's Covid?

Those people with Covid tunnel vision have absolutely no interest in looking at the consequences of using lockdowns and restrictions to fight it, maybe you should look at the bigger picture for once.

[Angelo]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

A move to Level 5 has caught all journalists by surprise when all were saying level 4 earlier. Shows a lot of second guessing was going on.

It will be level 4.x anyway, either 4+ or 5-. Best to get on with things.

The Free State's health service is a much bigger basket case than ours up here and that is saying something.

[GetOverTheBar]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

A move to Level 5 has caught all journalists by surprise when all were saying level 4 earlier. Shows a lot of second guessing was going on.

It will be level 4.x anyway, either 4+ or 5-. Best to get on with things.

I'm in Mid Ulster and we've a few postcodes ranking high and I know one person with it.

Something isn't right about the number of positive cases up here, I'm convinced there is an 'error' somewhere.

[Cunny Funt]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

Compared to the spring the ROI are more than decent with their testing at the moment. It was clear back in March, April that loads of infected people weren't getting testing at all. NI need to start getting up to a similar testing number for All Ireland approach and track and tracing across the borders is a joke at the moment.

[armaghniac]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

Compared to the spring the ROI are more than decent with their testing at the moment. It was clear back in March, April that loads of infected people weren't getting testing at all. NI need to start getting up to a similar testing number for All Ireland approach and track and tracing across the borders is a joke at the moment.

Even in April the ROI tested some of the people, whereas the North made no effort at all in March and April.
The clowns in Belfast will never get a proper approach together.

[Angelo]

112,134 tests carried out in the ROI over the last 7 days thats almost 20,000 more than the previous week. Back in April when we were getting over 5,000 weekly case numbers the weekly test number was just over 40,000.

NI had 3869 tests in the last 24 hours, now maybe this is a Sunday thing but it is nowhere near enough, as the positivity rate was over 20%.
ROI isn't good but NI is even worse.

Compared to the spring the ROI are more than decent with their testing at the moment. It was clear back in March, April that loads of infected people weren't getting testing at all. NI need to start getting up to a similar testing number for All Ireland approach and track and tracing across the borders is a joke at the moment.

Even in April the ROI tested some of the people, whereas the North made no effort at all in March and April.
The clowns in Belfast will never get a proper approach together.

The clowns in Belfast are only a show government with no real powers.

[sid waddell]

A new rapid Covid test has been developed by the DUP

It's only a p***k and the answer is always No

[armaghniac]

I'm in Mid Ulster and we've a few postcodes ranking high and I know one person with it.

Something isn't right about the number of positive cases up here, I'm convinced there is an 'error' somewhere.

NI is an error.

[Blowitupref]

14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 704.0
ROI: 251.0

Derry City & Strabane: 1,735.6
Belfast: 996.4
Mid-Ulster: 844.3
Cavan 807.3
Newry & Mourne: 658.2
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 558.0
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 546.7
Meath: 488.6
Fermanagh & Omagh: 454.5
Causeway & Glens: 451.0

[Angelo]

This is an interesting read.

https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1317880298554744836

[PadraicHenryPearse]

Life can be very long, short is 38, the age a very good club mate of mine that died recently. Angelo, you are full of shit and a reincarnation of the WUM's we've had on here for years

The narrative of what you said is that its ok for people who are young, fit and healthy to die providing its not from Covid?

There are huge negative consequences of lockdowns and restrictions, we saw rises in cases of domestic violence during the first lockdown, mental health issues are almost certain to become a bigger issue with it, the economic issues it brings, the threat to people's livelihoods, jobs, ability to provide for their families, the social isolation people who live alone or elderly people feel.

At what point do we focus on the above? At what point do we look at the latest data and trends being reported on covid, a plumetting fatality, rate, the underlying health conditions the vast majority of people who die from it have, the median and mean age of those who die and what their life expectancy would be.

Some of you are so entrenched into your thinking that you are completely unwilling to look at the big picture?

I could be petty like you and say that you guys are happy to see domestic violence and suicide rise because of what you are are advocating.

you have provided no alternative that does not lead to the same or similar issues, all you provided was the unrealistic hope that people adhere to the guidance which it is clear they have not and therefore will not do.

you keep repeating the same questions over and over again without saying how any alternative you are suggesting would address them.

no one is saying there are no socio-economic challenges with lockdowns, i dont think anyone wants a lockdown but in the absence of a credible alternative which you havent provided most people see it as neccessary.

how we stop the same thing happening after these restrictions/lockdown is what needs to be dentified. I dont k ow what they are though. i hope a gradual opening of the socio-economic enviroment and adherance to guidance would work but it clearly hasnt.

Neither have you.

The same negative economic and societal issues will return now during lockdown and will probably return a worse effect.

It's a trade off, the fatality of the virus has plummeted at double digit multiples. It is my view that the impacts of lockdown and excessive restrictions will have more negative consequences than what we had in place prior to this second wave on society as a whole.

There's a reason why a large group of people aren't complying now, they don't fear the virus. The first wave had resonance because we saw the images from Lombardy and Madrid, people had a genuine fear that this could shoot fit and healthy people down. The data tends to point at this risk being remote, probably as remote as the flu which we live with every single winter.

i have, i am advocating lockdown again and in the absence of something better and as of now i am.not aware of what that would be another lockdown and another as needs require.

the alternative is herd immunity and i have already provided my reason for not purposing that course inclusing socio-economic reasons.

i have also mentioned that comparing restrictions/lockdown fataility rates with potential herd immunity fatality rates is not comparing like with like. i dont know how much early detection and how much better we are at treating covid is or if the strain has weakened but i think you can agree if hospitals get overwhelm, which they will with herd immunity, they are close with the last 7 months restrictions that more people will die.

you camnot compare the flu those rates are us nearly alwyas having capacity, having a vaccine and living pre covid lives.

if we lived pre covid lives now, how soon would the hosiptals get overwhelmed  and thr fatality rate start to increase!!

Who is mentioning pre-Covid lives?

I think we should have stuck with the way we were living after coming out of the first lockdown.

The bottom line is that people don't fear the virus now, if the problem is a compliance problem then more restrictions aren't going to help when compliance is the problem.

What % of cases requite hospitalisation since we have moved into the second wave. Why have governments not catered for this sufficiently particularly when you look at some of the money being thrown about, surely the health service is the thing that requires the most investment in the immediate term.

you have being comparing against the flu so i assumed you were at least trying im some way to like with like...

what we are doing  now is seeing the grow in numbers of people with covid to the point where lockdowns are being re introduced to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed. It would be interesting to know what peoples opinions of covid in ireland are but i dont think you can make a sweeping statement like people dont fear the virus now....

the socio-economic impact of a situation where the hospitals are overwhelmed (we need to deal with what we got, not what health system we should have) would be way worst that rolling lockdowns. 

i am all for living with covid if the numbers can be kept low but from what we have seen that is not possible, there will come a point where we need to lockdown again to prevent hospitals beong overehelmed and other services being curtailed.

What I'm comparing with the flu is how we live with a virus that kills, causes massive health problems and puts the health system under immense pressure every single year without making any sort of societal or economic changes.

I don't think it's a case of keeping the numbers low, are the cases kept low for flu every winter? Not really.

It's a case of what sort of impact it will have? We are seeing signs now that the virus does not seem to be anywhere near as fatal as we may have initially thought it was.

one final time then i give up..

you are comparing the flu figures which has a vaccine, which is seasonal and which our hosiptals can nearly always cope with and everyone lived their "normal" pre covid lives.... to

we dont have a vaccine, its not seasonal and twice it has got close to overwhelming hosiptals and we have seriously changed the way we live our lifes.

to get even close to comparing the full consquences of covid and make at least a decent comparsion to the flu numbers we would need to go back to our lives pre covid and see how many die then.

However, we are not stupid and lockeddown as the level of death if we continued our normal routine would have been way higher than it was back in March/April..

can you compare the flu fatality rate with covid if there was no restrictions and we went about our lives as we did pre march?

There are 4 options that i can see

1. do nothing different...
2. herd immunity
3. live with covid (undefined but as close as i can figure you are suggesting)
4. lockdown to protect health service being overwhelm.if required.

what are the socio-economic and health implications of these?

We lockeddown as we nothing very little and experience ln other countries told us it protected the health system being overwhelmed.

3. we then tried to live with covid, but it hasnt worked despite the slow opening up and restrictions still on what we did pre covid, we imposed further restrictions and they dont appear to have worked either. You are proposing we continue with something similar to this when it hasnt worked, we are getting closer to an overwhelm healthcare system again and all the socio-economic and heath issues this would cause. you completing ignore this part, it appears only lockdown has a socio economic impact in your eyes.. which is wrong.

1. thousands would likely died
2. we cannot silo the vulnerable, we have tired during living with covid but have failed.

4. loxkdown if required - this is where we are now as living with covid didnt work imo. we didnt protect the vulnerbale, we didnt keep numbers down, we are going to overwhelm the healthcare system. As a result there will be socio econmic impacts which i havent ignored.

What have the effects of us living with Covid been?

As far as I've seen the fatality rate since we gradually reopened up was something like 0.4%. The average age of people who died is in their 80s, most with underlying health conditions so there's a lot of contention about what is really the cause of death here.

Look at what Slovakia are doing now, mass testing the entire nation in a very short space of time, grabbing the bull by the horns to see if they can deal with it. How do we know living with Covid didn't work? Are multiple lockdowns and potential of living in this state of flux long term a viable solution do you think because governments haven't shown us any other alternative yet.

before i can fully answer can u advice what level 1-5 would we be at? to get better sense i.e attendance at sports events, restrict movement between counties, opening hrs of pubs.

what happened since the last lockdown is we are gradually closing down again and numbers becoming unmanageable for the health system.. you appear to have trouble looking forward and seeing the trend or accept what the outcomes of an overwhelm health system are over the longer term.

it already clear the elderaly and vulnerable are expendable to you. no thoughts on menral health of their familes...

we know living with covid hasnt worked as we have had to further restrict, we couldnt protect nursing homes, numbers are increasing, health sytem under added pressure...

slovakia is interesting but it has its flaws.

you might have missed this with your spats with others.

you stilll have not provided detail on how you proposed to live with covid firstly, and secondly protect the health service from being overwhelmed causing all the issues  you keep claiming covid tunnel vision are denying. 

What evidence do you have that long term your approach(still undefined) will help all those you claim lockdown will hurt better than rolling lockdowns. do you not expect a socio-economic impact.

[PadraicHenryPearse]

This is an interesting read.

https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1317880298554744836

talk about tunnel vision.. you appear to have only a problem with experts when it doesnt suit your narrative. stockbokers opinion is an interesting read..