China Coronavirus

[imtommygunn]

I would agree with you but they haven't and the health service up north is now going to be in a very precarious position if something drastic is not done asap. I.e. lockdown

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

Still unable to offer something substantive, maybe some of the gutsier posters will give it a go for you.

Unsurprisingly, your maths is wrong. 

You just keep on doing it don't you?

Those figures are fine, I think it's more a case of you suffering from an inflated sense of your own worth.

The floor is yours if you can correct them, careful though.....

50-60% of 600,000 does not equal 600,000.

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

Still unable to offer something substantive, maybe some of the gutsier posters will give it a go for you.

Unsurprisingly, your maths is wrong. 

You just keep on doing it don't you?

Those figures are fine, I think it's more a case of you suffering from an inflated sense of your own worth.

The floor is yours if you can correct them, careful though.....

50-60% of 600,000 does not equal 600,000.

Ah I didn't realise you were illiterate.

Let me explain this for you:

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

You see the ILI bit? Yeah.

Sometimes it would serve you better to keep your mouth should, rather than open it and confirm everyone's suspicions.

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

It's too easy this carry on.

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

It's too easy this carry on.

Whatever way you want to read it, it doesn't impact the fatality rate.

[Angelo]

I would agree with you but they haven't and the health service up north is now going to be in a very precarious position if something drastic is not done asap. I.e. lockdown

Yes but this happens yearly with seasonal flu.

At what point do we say that deaths associated with Covid is going to be an acceptable risk much like we do with seasonal flu?

The problem with lockdown is the consequences of it are wide and far reaching for lots of people.

[imtommygunn]

I understand what you are saying but it is not just about deaths. It's about health service capacity.

I haven't read all your links but do we annually reach capacity? I wouldn't have thought so. I would also imagine that year or year you would have a worst case and a best case.

This is growing unbounded as it stands.

Lockdown is a last resort. It absolutely has to be and it's indicative of failures on many many levels but that is where we are.

Broadly I agree with you. People can be a bit knee jerk on things. There are areas arguably I wouldn't shut and they have however something drastic needs done at present.

[Angelo]

I understand what you are saying but it is not just about deaths. It's about health service capacity.

I haven't read all your links but do we annually reach capacity? I wouldn't have thought so. I would also imagine that year or year you would have a worst case and a best case.

This is growing unbounded as it stands.

Lockdown is a last resort. It absolutely has to be and it's indicative of failures on many many levels but that is where we are.

Broadly I agree with you. People can be a bit knee jerk on things. There are areas arguably I wouldn't shut and they have however something drastic needs done at present.

10 years ago but here is one.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/northern-ireland-hospitals-critical-beds-crisis-after-flu-patients-swamp-unit-28580481.html

Look we are where we are. I don't have any broad objections to lockdown at this point but lockdowns can't be a long term solution.

The reason a lockdown is in place is that government didn't plan and cater for what they should have known as inevitable. Surely the past 6 months should have been focused towards increasing capacity and resources in the health system? It's the easy way out to blame the people.

[imtommygunn]

I don't disagree with parts of what you're saying. To be honest up north the state of the health service even compared to the rest of the uk illustrates what a failure our government are. The last six months probably a) reflects lack of money and b) also a failure at govern,ent layer  however correcting the nhs is a job of huge proportions.

I also am not a fan of blame him or blame her etc as they didn't wear a mask. It's tabloid behaviour.

Things like university halls opening when all classes are online is the biggest failure of all imo. It's blame the masses when the people at the top could do so much more.

[Angelo]

I don't disagree with parts of what you're saying. To be honest up north the state of the health service even compared to the rest of the uk illustrates what a failure our government are. The last six months probably a) reflects lack of money and b) also a failure at govern,ent layer  however correcting the nhs is a job of huge proportions.

I also am not a fan of blame him or blame her etc as they didn't wear a mask. It's tabloid behaviour.

Things like university halls opening when all classes are online is the biggest failure of all imo. It's blame the masses when the people at the top could do so much more.

I'd agree.

The horse has bolted so to speak in terms of the levels of transmission.

It seems to be more a case of a failing health service at present more than anything.

We are not seeing anything close to the levels of deaths we saw in the first wave yet and if that trend continues then living with Covid is something we are capable of doing until such time as science gets us answer. I would be of the opinion that Covid probably won't be that much of a factor by the time science have something though.

If the fatality rates continue to fall or stabilise then there is no reason why we should be going into another lockdown after this. The priority has to be improving the health system and building capacity for us to live with this.

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

It's too easy this carry on.

Whatever way you want to read it, it doesn't impact the fatality rate.

It shows that Covid has killed roughly the same number of people in 10 weeks as the flu did in a year.

And, given that YOU produced this incredible dissertation, with the intention of proving the opposite, makes you look like an absolute plonker.

[imtommygunn]

I don't disagree with parts of what you're saying. To be honest up north the state of the health service even compared to the rest of the uk illustrates what a failure our government are. The last six months probably a) reflects lack of money and b) also a failure at govern,ent layer  however correcting the nhs is a job of huge proportions.

I also am not a fan of blame him or blame her etc as they didn't wear a mask. It's tabloid behaviour.

Things like university halls opening when all classes are online is the biggest failure of all imo. It's blame the masses when the people at the top could do so much more.

I'd agree.

The horse has bolted so to speak in terms of the levels of transmission.

It seems to be more a case of a failing health service at present more than anything.

We are not seeing anything close to the levels of deaths we saw in the first wave yet and if that trend continues then living with Covid is something we are capable of doing until such time as science gets us answer. I would be of the opinion that Covid probably won't be that much of a factor by the time science have something though.

If the fatality rates continue to fall or stabilise then there is no reason why we should be going into another lockdown after this. The priority has to be improving the health system and building capacity for us to live with this.

Fatalities are going to crank up though.

The health system being fixed could take a lifetime. I would be concerned over what the tories will do next with it. I could see blame being fired at it when they are at fault.

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

It's too easy this carry on.

Whatever way you want to read it, it doesn't impact the fatality rate.

It shows that Covid has killed roughly the same number of people in 10 weeks as the flu did in a year.

And, given that YOU produced this incredible dissertation, with the intention of proving the opposite, makes you look like an absolute plonker.

Flu is seasonal.

So it basically kills at a similar enough rate with probably a similar demograph once you take the first wave out of the equation.

[Angelo]

I don't disagree with parts of what you're saying. To be honest up north the state of the health service even compared to the rest of the uk illustrates what a failure our government are. The last six months probably a) reflects lack of money and b) also a failure at govern,ent layer  however correcting the nhs is a job of huge proportions.

I also am not a fan of blame him or blame her etc as they didn't wear a mask. It's tabloid behaviour.

Things like university halls opening when all classes are online is the biggest failure of all imo. It's blame the masses when the people at the top could do so much more.

I'd agree.

The horse has bolted so to speak in terms of the levels of transmission.

It seems to be more a case of a failing health service at present more than anything.

We are not seeing anything close to the levels of deaths we saw in the first wave yet and if that trend continues then living with Covid is something we are capable of doing until such time as science gets us answer. I would be of the opinion that Covid probably won't be that much of a factor by the time science have something though.

If the fatality rates continue to fall or stabilise then there is no reason why we should be going into another lockdown after this. The priority has to be improving the health system and building capacity for us to live with this.

Fatalities are going to crank up though.

The health system being fixed could take a lifetime. I would be concerned over what the tories will do next with it. I could see blame being fired at it when they are at fault.

In raw numbers they probably will but I wouldn't expect huge  rises in death rates, if you look all across Europe, fatality rates are dropping by double digit multiples compared to the first wave.

Right now capacity is the issue.

We will see though, what's done is done and it just remains to be seen at what cost. I think we are all hoping that we come out of this the right side as it will give us hope for the future.

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

It's too easy this carry on.

Whatever way you want to read it, it doesn't impact the fatality rate.

It shows that Covid has killed roughly the same number of people in 10 weeks as the flu did in a year.

And, given that YOU produced this incredible dissertation, with the intention of proving the opposite, makes you look like an absolute plonker.

Flu is seasonal.

So it basically kills at a similar enough rate with probably a similar demograph once you take the first wave out of the equation.

Throw the shovel out of the hole lad.