China Coronavirus

[LCohen]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

Can't see the link.

You keep telling us that someone (you haven't said who but given the number of times you have repeated it it must be someone quite eminent or a huge volume of people) is predicting big death tolls in NI in 5-6 weeks time. Post the link to that prediction.

[Angelo]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

If that is the best you can come up you definitely fall into the side if the argument where "some people are too stupid to know how stupid they are". 

Nobody is saying masks are 100% effective. But combined with social distancing, good hygiene/hand washing practices and not mixing with every Tom, Dick or Harry it will severely limit the spread of this virus. And for the most part everyday business can continue as normal as can possibly be. But then you have thrad individuals like you who think they know better and have to argue every last detail for fear they might be classified as sheep.

I was asked a question on what experts dispute that masks are effective in stopping the virus spread. I provided one example of an expert who did. I can provide more.

I have no problem wearing a mask, I do not know how effective they are or aren't.

I am just pointing out that the "experts" have very conflicting views on their effectiveness. You can argue that but it would only make you look like an idiot as there are plenty of experts who dispute it so take it up with them if you want.

[Angelo]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

Can't see the link.

You keep telling us that someone (you haven't said who but given the number of times you have repeated it it must be someone quite eminent or a huge volume of people) is predicting big death tolls in NI in 5-6 weeks time. Post the link to that prediction.

3 extra deaths yesterday which takes it to 591.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2020/0814/1159218-covid-northern-ireland/

Northern Ireland records 74 new Covid-19 cases, one further death
Updated / Friday, 14 Aug 2020 17:34
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has said 74 new cases of Covid-19 have been identified.

There has also been one further death confirmed in the past 24 hours.

The person who died is understood to have been under 40 years of the age.

The total number of deaths in Northern Ireland from Covid-19 now stands at 558 while the total number of confirmed cases is 6,299, with 242 people testing positive in the last seven days.

Health Minister Robin Swann said the number of close contacts linked to positive cases "has more than doubled since July".

In a statement today, he said: "This rise may be attributed to the easing of lockdown measures, but may also be explained by relaxing of attitudes to social distancing."

He urged people to "stick with it" and to do all they can to prevent the virus taking "hold in our society".

Meanwhile, over 250,000 people have downloaded the Covid-19 tracing app in Northern Ireland, two weeks after its launch.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-covid-19-cases-spiral-as-877-cases-3-deaths-reported-1.4378677

Northern Ireland: Covid-19 cases spiral, as 877 cases, 3 deaths reported
Executive at odds over proposal for series of six-week lockdowns
about 23 hours ago
Gerry Moriarty
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire


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Northern Ireland recorded three more deaths and 877 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday as Stormont Executive Ministers consider whether six-week lockdowns should be introduced in the North to curb the dramatic rise of the virus.

The North's Department of Health in its daily bulletin on Monday reported three deaths bringing the total to 591.

After almost 2,000 new cases over the weekend, the department recorded 877 new coronavirus cases on Monday, taking the total to 21,035.

In the past seven days 6,161 cases were reported. The Derry and Strabane council area, where additional restrictions are in place, is experiencing 971 virus cases per 100,000 of the population with Belfast reporting 455 cases per 100,000.

Some parts of Northern Ireland are seeing relatively low levels of incidence. In Mid and East Antrim the figure is 87 cases per 100,000 and in Ards and North Down 131 cases.

The number of people receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19 continues to rise. There are now 140 patients being treated, with 22 of them in intensive care units and 15 on ventilators.

Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Six-week lockdown
The Executive is expected to meet on Tuesday with evidence of renewed tensions between Ministers on how to tackle the spiralling rise in Covid-19.

The health Minister Robin Swann confirmed to the Assembly on Monday that the chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride and chief scientific adviser Prof Ian Young presented First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill with new written proposals on how to address the problem.

Coronavirus search: How is Covid-19 spreading in your locality?
Life under Level 3: What stays open and where can I travel?
Living with Covid plan: What is in each of the five levels?
"That paper recommends decisive action be urgently taken to save lives, prevent the health service being overwhelmed and protect non-Covid services to the greatest extent possible," said Mr Swann.

The Minister did not detail those proposals but a number of Stormont sources said they included recommendations that Northern Ireland enter an imminent six-week lockdown and that a further six-week lockdown may be required in the new year.

     

There was an expectation that the Executive would consider these proposals on Monday but sources said that instead the Executive will meet on Tuesday to try to chart a way forward.

Already, there appear to be renewed differences opening up on the issue between the two dominant parties in the Executive, the DUP and Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin has not stated whether it would opt for a six-week lockdown. On Sunday however Sinn Féin MP Chris Hazzard suggested it was time to move away from localised measures, as pertains in the Derry and Strabane area.

"I think there was a logic and a sense behind local lockdowns at a time but I think we're now moving fast into the area where we need to be looking at more general lockdowns once again, at more general and rigorous and robust methods at being able to suppress this virus," he told the BBC.

Additional finances
The DUP leader and First Minister Ms Foster on Monday indicated that she was not in favour of a move as stringent as a six-week lockdown.

She said that "heavier restrictions however are not inevitable" if people observed the basic rules such as social distancing, wearing masks and having good respiratory hygiene.

She did not accept that the argument was simply "health versus wealth" because if businesses and jobs were lost and people ended up in poverty then that also would have health implications.

"So, we need a balanced approach," she added. "Let no one say that these next few days will contain easy decisions but what they will contain for me is weighing up some very big choices as we seek to do what is right by all of our people."

On Monday Ms Foster, Ms O'Neill and Mr Swann joined in a Cobra meeting with British prime minister Boris Johnson and representatives from the Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations on Covid-19.


After the meeting Ms O'Neill said she raised the need for additional finances from the British government. "Our Covid situation requires decisive action to stop the spread and therefore we need the finances to support workers, families and business in these challenging times," she said.

The chief executive of Belfast Chamber of Trade Simon Hamilton warned a second lockdown would be severely damaging for many businesses. "Whilst we all appreciate that the situation with the virus has taken a turn for the worse and that action is required, the Executive must equally consider the wider and longer-term impacts on society, our mental health, jobs and the economy of the choices before them," he said.

[GetOverTheBar]

Angelo, if a loved one of yours was sick and had a 0.008 chance of dying if you visited him/her - would you still visit?

I get your point here, but in life, there is nothing ever at 0% risk. As Angelo points out, you could get in your car tonight and that could be it. That is not me downplaying the situation or anything to that effect but your comparison is an extremely sensationalist one. It's a loaded question.

Kinda like that news story today about your man in the States who got infected twice, what was the odds of that? Yet you don't hear much about the hundreds of thousands, if not millions at this stage who have recovered. Why?

[Angelo]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

It's quite clear, you asked for an expert who disputed masks - I gave you one. You then moved the goalposts to say he changed his mind.

It's perfectly valid in your mind but that's also a subjective view that supports your argument and is not based on anything more than that.

There are plenty of experts who argue that masks are ineffective. The bottom line is that it's a minor inconvenience for most people to wear them so on the small chance they do slow it down experts recommend them but that doesn't mean they are an effective weapon against the virus as the experts are at odds on this - contrary to your wrongly asserted view as I have shown.

1. I did NOT say the English dude changed his mind. I questioned if he had (which you've quoted), given that the link you posted was from April 3. We're discussing this in October. A lot has happened since then. We now have six additional months of knowledge of how the disease works and how to combat and manage it. It would be unprofessional for any scientist or public health professional not to take what happened in that time into account.

2. You haven't shown any wrongly asserted view on my part. You seem to be saying that there are a significant number of experts who advocate against masks, but you haven't shown anything to support that. Tegnell is a very noted exception in this pandemic in that he is not only not recommending masks, but he is way looser with all of the other typical requirements. He is not a typical example. Outside of Scandinavia and China (and Ireland?), most of the planet has some kind of mandatory mask rules. The science may be inconclusive at this point, but they're still correctly erring on the side of caution in their advice.

You question me on what experts said masks don't work.

I provided you with one and then you tried to move the goalposts. I also provided you with another one.

It's clear as day that experts are divided on this, which you disputed so maybe in light of factual evidence of experts publicly voicing this opinion, you should accept that there are two differing fields of thoughts between experts.

[macdanger2]

Have you ever done a 50 mile car trip to go to town, to go to a match, to travel to an airport, to go shopping, to visit a friend/relative?

Were any of those trips necessary? Would you ever make one of those trips again if you knew it carried a 0.008% chance of killing someone?

I think you need to check your maths here Angelo, you're confusing yourself switching between rates and percentages

[J70]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

It's quite clear, you asked for an expert who disputed masks - I gave you one. You then moved the goalposts to say he changed his mind.

It's perfectly valid in your mind but that's also a subjective view that supports your argument and is not based on anything more than that.

There are plenty of experts who argue that masks are ineffective. The bottom line is that it's a minor inconvenience for most people to wear them so on the small chance they do slow it down experts recommend them but that doesn't mean they are an effective weapon against the virus as the experts are at odds on this - contrary to your wrongly asserted view as I have shown.

1. I did NOT say the English dude changed his mind. I questioned if he had (which you've quoted), given that the link you posted was from April 3. We're discussing this in October. A lot has happened since then. We now have six additional months of knowledge of how the disease works and how to combat and manage it. It would be unprofessional for any scientist or public health professional not to take what happened in that time into account.

2. You haven't shown any wrongly asserted view on my part. You seem to be saying that there are a significant number of experts who advocate against masks, but you haven't shown anything to support that. Tegnell is a very noted exception in this pandemic in that he is not only not recommending masks, but he is way looser with all of the other typical requirements. He is not a typical example. Outside of Scandinavia and China (and Ireland?), most of the planet has some kind of mandatory mask rules. The science may be inconclusive at this point, but they're still correctly erring on the side of caution in their advice.

You question me on what experts said masks don't work.

I provided you with one and then you tried to move the goalposts. I also provided you with another one.

It's clear as day that experts are divided on this, which you disputed so maybe in light of factual evidence of experts publicly voicing this opinion, you should accept that there are two differing fields of thoughts between experts.

A six month old pronouncement is basically irrelevant given how things have changed, especially on mask-wearing, hence my question about what he thinks now. That is perfectly valid and not moving the goalposts in any way.

On the differing fields of thought, I guess we have differing concepts of what that means. There are always going to be exceptions or hold-outs or contrarians, no matter what the subject. Scientists are no exception to this. Whether their position is valid or supported is what is key.

[Angelo]

Have you ever done a 50 mile car trip to go to town, to go to a match, to travel to an airport, to go shopping, to visit a friend/relative?

Were any of those trips necessary? Would you ever make one of those trips again if you knew it carried a 0.008% chance of killing someone?

I think you need to check your maths here Angelo, you're confusing yourself switching between rates and percentages

Apologies, 0.8%

[Angelo]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

It's quite clear, you asked for an expert who disputed masks - I gave you one. You then moved the goalposts to say he changed his mind.

It's perfectly valid in your mind but that's also a subjective view that supports your argument and is not based on anything more than that.

There are plenty of experts who argue that masks are ineffective. The bottom line is that it's a minor inconvenience for most people to wear them so on the small chance they do slow it down experts recommend them but that doesn't mean they are an effective weapon against the virus as the experts are at odds on this - contrary to your wrongly asserted view as I have shown.

1. I did NOT say the English dude changed his mind. I questioned if he had (which you've quoted), given that the link you posted was from April 3. We're discussing this in October. A lot has happened since then. We now have six additional months of knowledge of how the disease works and how to combat and manage it. It would be unprofessional for any scientist or public health professional not to take what happened in that time into account.

2. You haven't shown any wrongly asserted view on my part. You seem to be saying that there are a significant number of experts who advocate against masks, but you haven't shown anything to support that. Tegnell is a very noted exception in this pandemic in that he is not only not recommending masks, but he is way looser with all of the other typical requirements. He is not a typical example. Outside of Scandinavia and China (and Ireland?), most of the planet has some kind of mandatory mask rules. The science may be inconclusive at this point, but they're still correctly erring on the side of caution in their advice.

You question me on what experts said masks don't work.

I provided you with one and then you tried to move the goalposts. I also provided you with another one.

It's clear as day that experts are divided on this, which you disputed so maybe in light of factual evidence of experts publicly voicing this opinion, you should accept that there are two differing fields of thoughts between experts.

A six month old pronouncement is basically irrelevant given how things have changed, especially on mask-wearing, hence my question about what he thinks now. That is perfectly valid and not moving the goalposts in any way.

On the differing fields of thought, I guess we have differing concepts of what that means. There are always going to be exceptions or hold-outs or contrarians, no matter what the subject. Scientists are no exception to this. Whether their position is valid or supported is what is key.

So what does it tell us when the experts are getting things badly wrong.


I don't know how effective masks are but it's not such an issue for people to wear them so governments recommend them but there are differing schools of opinion between experts on their effectiveness.

[LCohen]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

Can't see the link.

You keep telling us that someone (you haven't said who but given the number of times you have repeated it it must be someone quite eminent or a huge volume of people) is predicting big death tolls in NI in 5-6 weeks time. Post the link to that prediction.

3 extra deaths yesterday which takes it to 591.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2020/0814/1159218-covid-northern-ireland/

Northern Ireland records 74 new Covid-19 cases, one further death
Updated / Friday, 14 Aug 2020 17:34
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has said 74 new cases of Covid-19 have been identified.

There has also been one further death confirmed in the past 24 hours.

The person who died is understood to have been under 40 years of the age.

The total number of deaths in Northern Ireland from Covid-19 now stands at 558 while the total number of confirmed cases is 6,299, with 242 people testing positive in the last seven days.

Health Minister Robin Swann said the number of close contacts linked to positive cases "has more than doubled since July".

In a statement today, he said: "This rise may be attributed to the easing of lockdown measures, but may also be explained by relaxing of attitudes to social distancing."

He urged people to "stick with it" and to do all they can to prevent the virus taking "hold in our society".

Meanwhile, over 250,000 people have downloaded the Covid-19 tracing app in Northern Ireland, two weeks after its launch.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-covid-19-cases-spiral-as-877-cases-3-deaths-reported-1.4378677

Northern Ireland: Covid-19 cases spiral, as 877 cases, 3 deaths reported
Executive at odds over proposal for series of six-week lockdowns
about 23 hours ago
Gerry Moriarty
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire


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Northern Ireland recorded three more deaths and 877 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday as Stormont Executive Ministers consider whether six-week lockdowns should be introduced in the North to curb the dramatic rise of the virus.

The North's Department of Health in its daily bulletin on Monday reported three deaths bringing the total to 591.

After almost 2,000 new cases over the weekend, the department recorded 877 new coronavirus cases on Monday, taking the total to 21,035.

In the past seven days 6,161 cases were reported. The Derry and Strabane council area, where additional restrictions are in place, is experiencing 971 virus cases per 100,000 of the population with Belfast reporting 455 cases per 100,000.

Some parts of Northern Ireland are seeing relatively low levels of incidence. In Mid and East Antrim the figure is 87 cases per 100,000 and in Ards and North Down 131 cases.

The number of people receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19 continues to rise. There are now 140 patients being treated, with 22 of them in intensive care units and 15 on ventilators.

Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Six-week lockdown
The Executive is expected to meet on Tuesday with evidence of renewed tensions between Ministers on how to tackle the spiralling rise in Covid-19.

The health Minister Robin Swann confirmed to the Assembly on Monday that the chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride and chief scientific adviser Prof Ian Young presented First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill with new written proposals on how to address the problem.

Coronavirus search: How is Covid-19 spreading in your locality?
Life under Level 3: What stays open and where can I travel?
Living with Covid plan: What is in each of the five levels?
"That paper recommends decisive action be urgently taken to save lives, prevent the health service being overwhelmed and protect non-Covid services to the greatest extent possible," said Mr Swann.

The Minister did not detail those proposals but a number of Stormont sources said they included recommendations that Northern Ireland enter an imminent six-week lockdown and that a further six-week lockdown may be required in the new year.

     

There was an expectation that the Executive would consider these proposals on Monday but sources said that instead the Executive will meet on Tuesday to try to chart a way forward.

Already, there appear to be renewed differences opening up on the issue between the two dominant parties in the Executive, the DUP and Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin has not stated whether it would opt for a six-week lockdown. On Sunday however Sinn Féin MP Chris Hazzard suggested it was time to move away from localised measures, as pertains in the Derry and Strabane area.

"I think there was a logic and a sense behind local lockdowns at a time but I think we're now moving fast into the area where we need to be looking at more general lockdowns once again, at more general and rigorous and robust methods at being able to suppress this virus," he told the BBC.

Additional finances
The DUP leader and First Minister Ms Foster on Monday indicated that she was not in favour of a move as stringent as a six-week lockdown.

She said that "heavier restrictions however are not inevitable" if people observed the basic rules such as social distancing, wearing masks and having good respiratory hygiene.

She did not accept that the argument was simply "health versus wealth" because if businesses and jobs were lost and people ended up in poverty then that also would have health implications.

"So, we need a balanced approach," she added. "Let no one say that these next few days will contain easy decisions but what they will contain for me is weighing up some very big choices as we seek to do what is right by all of our people."

On Monday Ms Foster, Ms O'Neill and Mr Swann joined in a Cobra meeting with British prime minister Boris Johnson and representatives from the Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations on Covid-19.


After the meeting Ms O'Neill said she raised the need for additional finances from the British government. "Our Covid situation requires decisive action to stop the spread and therefore we need the finances to support workers, families and business in these challenging times," she said.

The chief executive of Belfast Chamber of Trade Simon Hamilton warned a second lockdown would be severely damaging for many businesses. "Whilst we all appreciate that the situation with the virus has taken a turn for the worse and that action is required, the Executive must equally consider the wider and longer-term impacts on society, our mental health, jobs and the economy of the choices before them," he said.

You were supposed to post a link to someone saying there would be very high NI death rates in in 5 or 6 weeks. You still haven't

[Angelo]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

Can't see the link.

You keep telling us that someone (you haven't said who but given the number of times you have repeated it it must be someone quite eminent or a huge volume of people) is predicting big death tolls in NI in 5-6 weeks time. Post the link to that prediction.

3 extra deaths yesterday which takes it to 591.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2020/0814/1159218-covid-northern-ireland/

Northern Ireland records 74 new Covid-19 cases, one further death
Updated / Friday, 14 Aug 2020 17:34
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has said 74 new cases of Covid-19 have been identified.

There has also been one further death confirmed in the past 24 hours.

The person who died is understood to have been under 40 years of the age.

The total number of deaths in Northern Ireland from Covid-19 now stands at 558 while the total number of confirmed cases is 6,299, with 242 people testing positive in the last seven days.

Health Minister Robin Swann said the number of close contacts linked to positive cases "has more than doubled since July".

In a statement today, he said: "This rise may be attributed to the easing of lockdown measures, but may also be explained by relaxing of attitudes to social distancing."

He urged people to "stick with it" and to do all they can to prevent the virus taking "hold in our society".

Meanwhile, over 250,000 people have downloaded the Covid-19 tracing app in Northern Ireland, two weeks after its launch.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-covid-19-cases-spiral-as-877-cases-3-deaths-reported-1.4378677

Northern Ireland: Covid-19 cases spiral, as 877 cases, 3 deaths reported
Executive at odds over proposal for series of six-week lockdowns
about 23 hours ago
Gerry Moriarty
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire


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Northern Ireland recorded three more deaths and 877 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday as Stormont Executive Ministers consider whether six-week lockdowns should be introduced in the North to curb the dramatic rise of the virus.

The North's Department of Health in its daily bulletin on Monday reported three deaths bringing the total to 591.

After almost 2,000 new cases over the weekend, the department recorded 877 new coronavirus cases on Monday, taking the total to 21,035.

In the past seven days 6,161 cases were reported. The Derry and Strabane council area, where additional restrictions are in place, is experiencing 971 virus cases per 100,000 of the population with Belfast reporting 455 cases per 100,000.

Some parts of Northern Ireland are seeing relatively low levels of incidence. In Mid and East Antrim the figure is 87 cases per 100,000 and in Ards and North Down 131 cases.

The number of people receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19 continues to rise. There are now 140 patients being treated, with 22 of them in intensive care units and 15 on ventilators.

Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Six-week lockdown
The Executive is expected to meet on Tuesday with evidence of renewed tensions between Ministers on how to tackle the spiralling rise in Covid-19.

The health Minister Robin Swann confirmed to the Assembly on Monday that the chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride and chief scientific adviser Prof Ian Young presented First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill with new written proposals on how to address the problem.

Coronavirus search: How is Covid-19 spreading in your locality?
Life under Level 3: What stays open and where can I travel?
Living with Covid plan: What is in each of the five levels?
"That paper recommends decisive action be urgently taken to save lives, prevent the health service being overwhelmed and protect non-Covid services to the greatest extent possible," said Mr Swann.

The Minister did not detail those proposals but a number of Stormont sources said they included recommendations that Northern Ireland enter an imminent six-week lockdown and that a further six-week lockdown may be required in the new year.

     

There was an expectation that the Executive would consider these proposals on Monday but sources said that instead the Executive will meet on Tuesday to try to chart a way forward.

Already, there appear to be renewed differences opening up on the issue between the two dominant parties in the Executive, the DUP and Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin has not stated whether it would opt for a six-week lockdown. On Sunday however Sinn Féin MP Chris Hazzard suggested it was time to move away from localised measures, as pertains in the Derry and Strabane area.

"I think there was a logic and a sense behind local lockdowns at a time but I think we're now moving fast into the area where we need to be looking at more general lockdowns once again, at more general and rigorous and robust methods at being able to suppress this virus," he told the BBC.

Additional finances
The DUP leader and First Minister Ms Foster on Monday indicated that she was not in favour of a move as stringent as a six-week lockdown.

She said that "heavier restrictions however are not inevitable" if people observed the basic rules such as social distancing, wearing masks and having good respiratory hygiene.

She did not accept that the argument was simply "health versus wealth" because if businesses and jobs were lost and people ended up in poverty then that also would have health implications.

"So, we need a balanced approach," she added. "Let no one say that these next few days will contain easy decisions but what they will contain for me is weighing up some very big choices as we seek to do what is right by all of our people."

On Monday Ms Foster, Ms O'Neill and Mr Swann joined in a Cobra meeting with British prime minister Boris Johnson and representatives from the Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations on Covid-19.


After the meeting Ms O'Neill said she raised the need for additional finances from the British government. "Our Covid situation requires decisive action to stop the spread and therefore we need the finances to support workers, families and business in these challenging times," she said.

The chief executive of Belfast Chamber of Trade Simon Hamilton warned a second lockdown would be severely damaging for many businesses. "Whilst we all appreciate that the situation with the virus has taken a turn for the worse and that action is required, the Executive must equally consider the wider and longer-term impacts on society, our mental health, jobs and the economy of the choices before them," he said.

You were supposed to post a link to someone saying there would be very high NI death rates in in 5 or 6 weeks. You still haven't

No I wasn't.

I stated that if mortality rates were in line with the first wave we would have 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks.

[J70]

Anyone giving comments based on expertise will generally acknowledge the limitations. In this case, mainly down to the novelty of the virus. If they don't acknowledge the limitations, they're unprofessional. Similarly, it is unprofessional and unscientific to not change advice or comments where appropriate as more knowledge is accumulated. That is what separates science from pseudoscience like, say, evolutionary biology from creationism. That is why it is valid to ask what an expert's current opinion on COVID is, not just rely on what it was six months ago when we didn't know as much.

[Rossfan]

The ignore function is a great yoke altogether.

[LCohen]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

Can't see the link.

You keep telling us that someone (you haven't said who but given the number of times you have repeated it it must be someone quite eminent or a huge volume of people) is predicting big death tolls in NI in 5-6 weeks time. Post the link to that prediction.

3 extra deaths yesterday which takes it to 591.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2020/0814/1159218-covid-northern-ireland/

Northern Ireland records 74 new Covid-19 cases, one further death
Updated / Friday, 14 Aug 2020 17:34
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
Health Minister Robin Swann urged the public to 'stick with' the measures to tackle the virus
The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has said 74 new cases of Covid-19 have been identified.

There has also been one further death confirmed in the past 24 hours.

The person who died is understood to have been under 40 years of the age.

The total number of deaths in Northern Ireland from Covid-19 now stands at 558 while the total number of confirmed cases is 6,299, with 242 people testing positive in the last seven days.

Health Minister Robin Swann said the number of close contacts linked to positive cases "has more than doubled since July".

In a statement today, he said: "This rise may be attributed to the easing of lockdown measures, but may also be explained by relaxing of attitudes to social distancing."

He urged people to "stick with it" and to do all they can to prevent the virus taking "hold in our society".

Meanwhile, over 250,000 people have downloaded the Covid-19 tracing app in Northern Ireland, two weeks after its launch.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-covid-19-cases-spiral-as-877-cases-3-deaths-reported-1.4378677

Northern Ireland: Covid-19 cases spiral, as 877 cases, 3 deaths reported
Executive at odds over proposal for series of six-week lockdowns
about 23 hours ago
Gerry Moriarty
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire
First Minister Arlene Foster sat Stormont. File photograph: Rebecca Black/PA Wire


Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Share to Email App

Northern Ireland recorded three more deaths and 877 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday as Stormont Executive Ministers consider whether six-week lockdowns should be introduced in the North to curb the dramatic rise of the virus.

The North's Department of Health in its daily bulletin on Monday reported three deaths bringing the total to 591.

After almost 2,000 new cases over the weekend, the department recorded 877 new coronavirus cases on Monday, taking the total to 21,035.

In the past seven days 6,161 cases were reported. The Derry and Strabane council area, where additional restrictions are in place, is experiencing 971 virus cases per 100,000 of the population with Belfast reporting 455 cases per 100,000.

Some parts of Northern Ireland are seeing relatively low levels of incidence. In Mid and East Antrim the figure is 87 cases per 100,000 and in Ards and North Down 131 cases.

The number of people receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19 continues to rise. There are now 140 patients being treated, with 22 of them in intensive care units and 15 on ventilators.

Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann. File photograph: Kelvin Boyes/Press Eye/PA Wire
Six-week lockdown
The Executive is expected to meet on Tuesday with evidence of renewed tensions between Ministers on how to tackle the spiralling rise in Covid-19.

The health Minister Robin Swann confirmed to the Assembly on Monday that the chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride and chief scientific adviser Prof Ian Young presented First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill with new written proposals on how to address the problem.

Coronavirus search: How is Covid-19 spreading in your locality?
Life under Level 3: What stays open and where can I travel?
Living with Covid plan: What is in each of the five levels?
"That paper recommends decisive action be urgently taken to save lives, prevent the health service being overwhelmed and protect non-Covid services to the greatest extent possible," said Mr Swann.

The Minister did not detail those proposals but a number of Stormont sources said they included recommendations that Northern Ireland enter an imminent six-week lockdown and that a further six-week lockdown may be required in the new year.

     

There was an expectation that the Executive would consider these proposals on Monday but sources said that instead the Executive will meet on Tuesday to try to chart a way forward.

Already, there appear to be renewed differences opening up on the issue between the two dominant parties in the Executive, the DUP and Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin has not stated whether it would opt for a six-week lockdown. On Sunday however Sinn Féin MP Chris Hazzard suggested it was time to move away from localised measures, as pertains in the Derry and Strabane area.

"I think there was a logic and a sense behind local lockdowns at a time but I think we're now moving fast into the area where we need to be looking at more general lockdowns once again, at more general and rigorous and robust methods at being able to suppress this virus," he told the BBC.

Additional finances
The DUP leader and First Minister Ms Foster on Monday indicated that she was not in favour of a move as stringent as a six-week lockdown.

She said that "heavier restrictions however are not inevitable" if people observed the basic rules such as social distancing, wearing masks and having good respiratory hygiene.

She did not accept that the argument was simply "health versus wealth" because if businesses and jobs were lost and people ended up in poverty then that also would have health implications.

"So, we need a balanced approach," she added. "Let no one say that these next few days will contain easy decisions but what they will contain for me is weighing up some very big choices as we seek to do what is right by all of our people."

On Monday Ms Foster, Ms O'Neill and Mr Swann joined in a Cobra meeting with British prime minister Boris Johnson and representatives from the Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations on Covid-19.


After the meeting Ms O'Neill said she raised the need for additional finances from the British government. "Our Covid situation requires decisive action to stop the spread and therefore we need the finances to support workers, families and business in these challenging times," she said.

The chief executive of Belfast Chamber of Trade Simon Hamilton warned a second lockdown would be severely damaging for many businesses. "Whilst we all appreciate that the situation with the virus has taken a turn for the worse and that action is required, the Executive must equally consider the wider and longer-term impacts on society, our mental health, jobs and the economy of the choices before them," he said.

You were supposed to post a link to someone saying there would be very high NI death rates in in 5 or 6 weeks. You still haven't

No I wasn't.

I stated that if mortality rates were in line with the first wave we would have 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks.

Well can you accept that absolutely nobody has claimed that NI mortality rate will be as high in 5-6 weeks as they have been at earlier stages?

[Angelo]

Anyone giving comments based on expertise will generally acknowledge the limitations. In this case, mainly down to the novelty of the virus. If they don't acknowledge the limitations, they're unprofessional. Similarly, it is unprofessional and unscientific to not change advice or comments where appropriate as more knowledge is accumulated. That is what separates science from pseudoscience like, say, evolutionary biology from creationism. That is why it is valid to ask what an expert's current opinion on COVID is, not just rely on what it was six months ago when we didn't know as much.

But is it a case of these experts changing their mind on the effectiveness of masks or acknowledging that whether it's effective or not that it's only a minor inconvenience for people to adhere to them?