China Coronavirus

[restorepride]

I think Angelo does have a point.

I was in many meetings with experts back in March/April when this was at its worst and the advice to my company was no point wearing masks. Plenty of experts on TV and in the WHO said the same. So things change and the experts changed their opinion which is fine and normal. But it does show that experts can be wrong and are not infallible. So the point is this, we do need to trust the opinion of the experts once they indulge us in answering our questions, providing the data on which they based their opinions. I don't think it is right to simply say - I am an expert dont question me. I think it was perfectly fine the GAA for example asked for the data which showed their games were contributing. The minute you start treating Tony Holohan as a god who owes us no explanation is the minute you are in trouble. Even good science needs to be critiqued.

Of course he has a point - but how much are you prepared to gamble?  Some people don't gamble at all.

[ballinaman]

I think Angelo does have a point.

I was in many meetings with experts back in March/April when this was at its worst and the advice to my company was no point wearing masks. Plenty of experts on TV and in the WHO said the same. So things change and the experts changed their opinion which is fine and normal. But it does show that experts can be wrong and are not infallible. So the point is this, we do need to trust the opinion of the experts once they indulge us in answering our questions, providing the data on which they based their opinions. I don't think it is right to simply say - I am an expert dont question me. I think it was perfectly fine the GAA for example asked for the data which showed their games were contributing. The minute you start treating Tony Holohan as a god who owes us no explanation is the minute you are in trouble. Even good science needs to be critiqued.

Agreed ,

People find it difficult to change thinking when beliefs have been entrenched .

Regarding Spain , they've been hammered by cases since late August...death rate stable however, with a slight seasonal rise in last number of weeks.

[Angelo]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

You keep repeating over and over again these predictions. Post the link to them.

I strongly suspect you are a devious liar. You are attempting to repeat this lie enough times so that you grandstand when the prediction of precisely nobody doesn't come true.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

You strongly expect I am a devious liar. Go look at the data in the link then numbnuts.

Couldn't get the Northern Ireland prediction there. Post it again please

I posted it earlier.

On the 14th August we had 6,229 cases, 558 recorded deaths.

As of yesterday we had 21,035 cases and 588 deaths.

If the mortality rates stay consistent with the first wave we will have roughly another 7-800 deaths over the next 5/6 weeks. We'll soon find the answer out to how potent the virus is and that should impact on how we plan to live with it as science is not going to solve it for us on time.

[J70]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

[restorepride]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

I'm not getting in the car unless I am driving, on my own!  Otherwise not taking the chance.  The old chestnut (great seasonal pun!!) - Health v Wealth.  By the way, is the 50 mile trip really necessary?  People spread the disease not cars.

Have you ever done a 50 mile car trip to go to town, to go to a match, to travel to an airport, to go shopping, to visit a friend/relative?

Were any of those trips necessary? Would you ever make one of those trips again if you knew it carried a 0.008% chance of killing someone?

I haven't done any of those since March.  If I thought there was any chance I would kill someone - no.  Although if I could just gently bump into Mr Brolly, then ....

So you're never going to get behind the wheel of a car again or get in a car to go to a football match, or visit a friend of relative or go to town?

You do realise how ridiculous that sounds?

No.  Once Covid has gone, I absolutely will - even visit you if you like.  I'd say you'd be good company with a couple of Guinness in you.  0.5 chance that the next one is on me.   But to apply such gambling in a pandemic?  That is ridiculous.  But again depends on your morality etc.......

[PadraicHenryPearse]

what scaremongering there by Angelo

[J70]

I think Angelo does have a point.

I was in many meetings with experts back in March/April when this was at its worst and the advice to my company was no point wearing masks. Plenty of experts on TV and in the WHO said the same. So things change and the experts changed their opinion which is fine and normal. But it does show that experts can be wrong and are not infallible. So the point is this, we do need to trust the opinion of the experts once they indulge us in answering our questions, providing the data on which they based their opinions. I don't think it is right to simply say - I am an expert dont question me. I think it was perfectly fine the GAA for example asked for the data which showed their games were contributing. The minute you start treating Tony Holohan as a god who owes us no explanation is the minute you are in trouble. Even good science needs to be critiqued.

They can only go on what they know at the time. The transmission routes had not been clearly established. There was more worry about surfaces and hand-to-face touching.

And back then, the immediate concern was health care workers and patients. There simply wasn't enough masks available to mandate widespread use, even if they suspected that it might help. As it was, there was all kinds of gouging and hoarding going on with individuals trying to cash in on the shortages.

I thnk its perfectly fine to question experts. Deferring instead to rumour and pseudoscience because scientists don't yet have all the answers is not fine.

[Angelo]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

It's quite clear, you asked for an expert who disputed masks - I gave you one. You then moved the goalposts to say he changed his mind.

It's perfectly valid in your mind but that's also a subjective view that supports your argument and is not based on anything more than that.

There are plenty of experts who argue that masks are ineffective. The bottom line is that it's a minor inconvenience for most people to wear them so on the small chance they do slow it down experts recommend them but that doesn't mean they are an effective weapon against the virus as the experts are at odds on this - contrary to your wrongly asserted view as I have shown.

[restorepride]

Angelo, if a loved one of yours was sick and had a 0.008 chance of dying if you visited him/her - would you still visit?

[Angelo]

I find that a good rule of thumb in any discussion about Covid is to ignore anybody who uses the word "scaremongering"

One word, but it says a whole lot about a person's mind

I think it's better to ignore people who speak with authority on something they're not qualified to.

Aye

A lot of them use the word "scaremongering"

I think you'll find "scaremongering" refers to the doom merchants who know nothing about the virus.

The virus has ran riot up North at the minute, the infection levels are rampant. The next 5/6 weeks are going to tell us all about those who dismiss the virus and those who are running around scaremongering. If the scaremongerers are right we are going to see mass deaths in the north overt he next 5/6 weeks in relation to the virus.

Do you think anybody who doesn't know everything about Covid knows nothing about Covid?

Also these death figures that you feel people have predicted in 5-6 weeks time. Where are you getting that from? Who has made those predictions?

I'm just going on the doom merchants beliefs. If this virus is as deadly and dangerous as they believe then surely there will be catastrophic numbers of fatalities in the north in the next 5/6 weeks when you look at how rampant infection rates have been of late.

I have no idea what way it will go but if you are on the scaremongering side then you would believe we are probably looking at death totals in line with the first wave which would point to 7-800 deaths in the next 5/6 weeks?

Do you think shutting down of the economy, loss of livelihoods, employment and all other negative knock on factors that lockdowns mean are neccessary for a virus that might just have a 0.008 mortality rate for confirmed positive cases - many of whom already might have terminal illnesses or underlying conditions?

If you had to hop into your car today to go on a 50 mile round trip and you were told there was a 0.008 chance you or someone will die as a result, would you take that chance?

I don't know this but the data with regards to this over the next 6 weeks will answer a lot.

I'm not getting in the car unless I am driving, on my own!  Otherwise not taking the chance.  The old chestnut (great seasonal pun!!) - Health v Wealth.  By the way, is the 50 mile trip really necessary?  People spread the disease not cars.

Have you ever done a 50 mile car trip to go to town, to go to a match, to travel to an airport, to go shopping, to visit a friend/relative?

Were any of those trips necessary? Would you ever make one of those trips again if you knew it carried a 0.008% chance of killing someone?

I haven't done any of those since March.  If I thought there was any chance I would kill someone - no.  Although if I could just gently bump into Mr Brolly, then ....

So you're never going to get behind the wheel of a car again or get in a car to go to a football match, or visit a friend of relative or go to town?

You do realise how ridiculous that sounds?

No.  Once Covid has gone, I absolutely will - even visit you if you like.  I'd say you'd be good company with a couple of Guinness in you.  0.5 chance that the next one is on me.   But to apply such gambling in a pandemic?  That is ridiculous.  But again depends on your morality etc.......

But what if it is proven that getting in your car carries a greater risk of death than going out about your daily business in a pandemic?

We're going to find some answers out on Covid in the next few months, the data seems to be pointing more and more if you look at mortality rates on it in Europe during the second wave, that it is not as potent as we probably first thought. I think it will be here to say but we'll probably have to live with it in much the same way we do flu.

A flu still kills people you know.

34,000 est deaths from 35,000,000 est cases in the US last year.

That represents a 0.0009 mortality rate.

So when does something become an acceptable risk?

[Angelo]

Angelo, if a loved one of yours was sick and had a 0.008 chance of dying if you visited him/her - would you still visit?

Yes.

Do you think I should never visit a loved one for a year, two years or 5 years because there is a 1 in 12,500 chance they could die from me visiting them?

Obviously if someone is not well or at risk, those chances increase and that will influence your decisions. It's about common sense, those who are vulnerable and at risk need to be looked after.

[Itchy]

I think Angelo does have a point.

I was in many meetings with experts back in March/April when this was at its worst and the advice to my company was no point wearing masks. Plenty of experts on TV and in the WHO said the same. So things change and the experts changed their opinion which is fine and normal. But it does show that experts can be wrong and are not infallible. So the point is this, we do need to trust the opinion of the experts once they indulge us in answering our questions, providing the data on which they based their opinions. I don't think it is right to simply say - I am an expert dont question me. I think it was perfectly fine the GAA for example asked for the data which showed their games were contributing. The minute you start treating Tony Holohan as a god who owes us no explanation is the minute you are in trouble. Even good science needs to be critiqued.

They can only go on what they know at the time. The transmission routes had not been clearly established. There was more worry about surfaces and hand-to-face touching.

And back then, the immediate concern was health care workers and patients. There simply wasn't enough masks available to mandate widespread use, even if they suspected that it might help. As it was, there was all kinds of gouging and hoarding going on with individuals trying to cash in on the shortages.

I thnk its perfectly fine to question experts. Deferring instead to rumour and pseudoscience because scientists don't yet have all the answers is not fine.

I agree with all that J70, although i think the supply chain was a secondary thought at the time.

[restorepride]

Angelo, if a loved one of yours was sick and had a 0.008 chance of dying if you visited him/her - would you still visit?

Yes.

Do you think I should never visit a loved one for a year, two years or 5 years because there is a 1 in 12,500 chance they could die from me visiting them?

Obviously if someone is not well or at risk, those chances increase and that will influence your decisions. It's about common sense, those who are vulnerable and at risk need to be looked after.
[/quot
Thanks - that tells me all I need to know about your risk-taking mindset.  You are of course entitled to that - but not when it comes to my health or public health. 

[J70]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

That was six months ago. Does he still believe that?

How do you explain places like New York, where cases plummeted following the state mandating the wearing of masks in public in April and where most people are actually adhering to mask wearing?

No one is saying masks alone are the panacaea. However, they've been standard practice in health care for decades to reduce the chances of staff infecting patients through exhalation of infectious droplets. Even if they're only 10% effective in reducing COVID transmission, that's still something worth pursuing, along with the social distancing, hand hygiene and so on.

You asked me for an expert who said masks don't work. There;s an expert who said it.

Here's another one.

https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

So rather than trying to move the goalposts now, why don't you just accept that is significant difference of opinion from the "experts" on whether face masks actually work or not.

What are you on about, "moving the goalposts"?

First, most governments and public health agencies were reluctant to mandate masks for the public back in March and April because of the huge shortages at the time. Its perfectly valid to ask if the guy you posted from England still believes now what he was advocating for in April, especially given the trends in the disease and the increased availability of PPE.

Second, in that link Tegnell specifically refers to the plummeting cases in Sweden at the time (July), and Sweden was trying for herd immunity anyway. Tegnell has plenty of critics within Sweden, where cases have been far higher than its neighbours.

There's always going to be a few who go against the consensus, but you seem to be implying that the public health professionals and scientists are hopelessly confused and there are equal numbers advocating for and against mask wearing. That is not the case.

The absolute effectiveness can only be established through study and experimentation. In the meantime, the responsible thing to do is to err on the side of caution, use what we do know about airborne transmission and masks, and recommend/require their use, along with social distancing and the rest.

It's quite clear, you asked for an expert who disputed masks - I gave you one. You then moved the goalposts to say he changed his mind.

It's perfectly valid in your mind but that's also a subjective view that supports your argument and is not based on anything more than that.

There are plenty of experts who argue that masks are ineffective. The bottom line is that it's a minor inconvenience for most people to wear them so on the small chance they do slow it down experts recommend them but that doesn't mean they are an effective weapon against the virus as the experts are at odds on this - contrary to your wrongly asserted view as I have shown.

1. I did NOT say the English dude changed his mind. I questioned if he had (which you've quoted), given that the link you posted was from April 3. We're discussing this in October. A lot has happened since then. We now have six additional months of knowledge of how the disease works and how to combat and manage it. It would be unprofessional for any scientist or public health professional not to take what happened in that time into account.

2. You haven't shown any wrongly asserted view on my part. You seem to be saying that there are a significant number of experts who advocate against masks, but you haven't shown anything to support that. Tegnell is a very noted exception in this pandemic in that he is not only not recommending masks, but he is way looser with all of the other typical requirements. He is not a typical example. Outside of Scandinavia and China (and Ireland?), most of the planet has some kind of mandatory mask rules. The science may be inconclusive at this point, but they're still correctly erring on the side of caution in their advice.

[93-DY-SAM]

What "experts" say masks don't work?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145

If that is the best you can come up you definitely fall into the side if the argument where "some people are too stupid to know how stupid they are". 

Nobody is saying masks are 100% effective. But combined with social distancing, good hygiene/hand washing practices and not mixing with every Tom, Dick or Harry it will severely limit the spread of this virus. And for the most part everyday business can continue as normal as can possibly be. But then you have thrad individuals like you who think they know better and have to argue every last detail for fear they might be classified as sheep.