China Coronavirus

[five points]

It's hard to believe there was no-one contagious on either Bournemouth Beach (and indeed Durdle Door) or the various BLM outings.

If poor ventilation and aircon are to blame, that's air travel gone for years.

[armaghniac]

It's hard to believe there was no-one contagious on either Bournemouth Beach (and indeed Durdle Door) or the various BLM outings.

If poor ventilation and aircon are to blame, that's air travel gone for years.

aeroplanes have the most sophisticated of ventilation systems, you are much more likely to get the pox in some nightclub or pub, the latter are not really a runner.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah. Keyword is if.

Yeah I would agree hard to believe no one at all but if there were cases depends how it spreads. I don't think that is well understood at all.

[GetOverTheBar]

Would I be correct that there was no spike from the BLM protests either?

There was very little distancing at the Belfast one from what I seen, haven't heard much of a blow back on it just yet.

Anecdotal evidence.....yes, I know....seems like 'clusters' form when peoples late night social activities come home to roost...it won't happen to me stuff. Yet, it does.

[trailer]

The spikes from these events may or may not happen. If there was no one there who was contagious, which is perfectly feasible, then they will not be the major incidents some think they could be.

I still don't think they have fully nailed how people catch this. Indoors with less ventilation, poor air con etc seems to be the environment it spreads most in(or they reckon it spreads most in) from what I can gauge.

If it circulating then there must be a spike linked with all these mass gatherings? Otherwise we should be opening up far more quickly than the current pace.

[Cunny Funt]

7 day average of 13 cases a day in the ROI and only 1 death in the last 4 days. 9 in ICU and 12 hospitalised. All good numbers as we approach July 20th.

That's great news, but based on what is happening here in Australia, would advise caution.

From mid-April to mid-June down to a trickle of cases, but started to seriously ramp up again resulting in some suburbs of Melbourne going into lockdown.

17/04 - 22/06 average of 14.7 new cases / day
22/06 - 08/07 average of 76.8 new cases / day

Thankfully our no of deaths remain relatively low at 106 lives lost, however we may only be starting to see the result of the latest spike on death tolls (4 of 106 since 24/06)

Yes an example to Ireland if complacency kicks in. I'm following the Melbourne situation closely as my friend lives there and his wife works in the Alfred hospital.

[Smurfy123]

With all sports teams throughout Ireland back 15 days with absolutely no spike at all what is that about? All sports back young and old
GAA
SOCCER
RUGBY

Cases on this island still floating around 15 per day.
No spike
Why?
We need to know why

[PadraicHenryPearse]

With all sports teams throughout Ireland back 15 days with absolutely no spike at all what is that about? All sports back young and old
GAA
SOCCER
RUGBY

Cases on this island still floating around 15 per day.
No spike
Why?
We need to know why

that to me suggests that "lockdown" has been generally a good success.

[Blowitupref]

With all sports teams throughout Ireland back 15 days with absolutely no spike at all what is that about? All sports back young and old
GAA
SOCCER
RUGBY

Cases on this island still floating around 15 per day.
No spike
Why?
We need to know why

that to me suggests that "lockdown" has been generally a good success.

Yes and the Irish compliance should be commended.

[Smurfy123]

Why Padraig?
Should we not see some spike?

[PadraicHenryPearse]

we could have seen some, many, few or no spikes. the number of community transmissions is lower and international travel is low because of lockdown and these mitigate against the risk of spikes. Low or no spikes now does not mean spikes could potentially happen in the future.

[imtommygunn]

The spikes from these events may or may not happen. If there was no one there who was contagious, which is perfectly feasible, then they will not be the major incidents some think they could be.

I still don't think they have fully nailed how people catch this. Indoors with less ventilation, poor air con etc seems to be the environment it spreads most in(or they reckon it spreads most in) from what I can gauge.

If it circulating then there must be a spike linked with all these mass gatherings? Otherwise we should be opening up far more quickly than the current pace.

I haven't heard of a spike relating to the mass gatherings yet- not to say there hasn't been one.

[Smurfy123]

When will the second wave happen?
Most likely October-February?
And likely start to this will be incoming flights I take it??

[imtommygunn]

we could have seen some, many, few or no spikes. the number of community transmissions is lower and international travel is low because of lockdown and these mitigate against the risk of spikes. Low or no spikes now does not mean spikes could potentially happen in the future.

I still think the indoors seems like the main culprit and indoors has been significantly restricted thus far. Once restaurants and bars get opened a bit more it will be interesting to see then there is the travel aspect too. Travelling back from America could cause problems.

[PadraicHenryPearse]

i cannot predict the future. i dont know if there will be or wont be a second wave or if there is when it is likely to start/finish or if it does happen how it will likely start.

i can tell you that the risk of a second wave increases with increased number of incoming travel from areas with high incidents of covid. i would think that if there is an increase that flu season would be a bad time and increased levels of covid would stretch our health system and potentially have deadly consequences.

i think given our response to the initial outbreak that a larger second wave is less likely because i think we will lockdown sooner.