China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

It's the constant lies and bullshit that they come out with that annoys me
Can't answer a simple question without a bullshit answer
The smugness
Never admit they got anything wrong
The lies with the testing
The car crash tv interviews
They seen what was coming before it came and still failed to lockdown
Absolutely morons

Oh the irony 

On another note, 3 days in a row for the north, things moving along. Maybe get the kids back to school in a couple of weeks..

[RadioGAAGAA]

For everyone anxious to open up ASAP - consider this - if another week or two closed down now prevented a lockdown in 6 months time - what would you do?

I suppose my question back to you would would centre upon what evidence, what figures, what statistics to you need to come across, before you (personally) would agree that it's safe to open?

I'm genuinely interested here. Do we need 0 deaths for a couple of days, zero cases for a week? What is it that would satisfy someone as worried about the virus, as you have been throughout.

Its not just a case of what the virus trend is when determining is it safe - its also the measures for identifying, tracing and isolating any future cases to prevent it flaring up - and how well they will work with a general population that may be willing - but many clearly can't understand and/or follow the instructions.

For instance, if we'd perfect track/trace - then we could open up right now and still be very confident in being able to kill this off. But we don't have perfect track/trace, we have either bad instructions on what constitutes a potential risk and/or a populace that can't interpret even mildly complex instructions (average of less than 3 contacts per covid case for tracing? that is plainly shite - if you go grocery shopping your likely to be in close contact with a cashier for more than 5 mins). We don't have phone tracing apps and I think many would be unwilling to download them.

With the above in mind, and given the absence of quick testing (is HiberGene, SAMBA-II or CRISPR rolled out yet)? then cases would need to be essentially zero for the full gestation period (~2.5 weeks) before we'd be safe to really open up (and even then, really isn't full). Even at that, I'd still expect there to be flare ups somewhere. At which point the govt need to jump on it - "go hard early" also applies in local as well as national settings - massive neighbourhood/workplace/etc testing to get any potential contacts - and anti-body tests to get possible sources then run back up those trace avenues.


Furthermore, when talking about "open up" - we must recognise that there are two distinct aspects to it - the potential for local outbreaks due to local people, or the potential for outbreaks from folks entering the country. Obviously, it'd be daft if we eradicated the thing in Ireland only to reimport it if the airports/seaports are reopened full blast. A clear way around it would be to use the fast tests at the departure port and no-one with a positive test is allowed to travel. Danger would be they pass it on to other travellers between arriving and getting sent home. A potential means around that would be getting people to self test at home before heading the air/sea port. Yet that trusts people not to bullshit the system.



I'm not happy with the situation at the airports. They are far too open. The authorities have learned nothing. This thing didn't arrive in on a gust of wind across the Irish sea. I think the international lockdown needs to continue (or rather, actually happen as it hasn't really been wholly implemented at all yet).

As for the national lockdown, 0 cases for 2 weeks, or the track/tracing system catching 100% of all cases before they submit themselves for testing for 2 weeks and I'd have to say it doesn't justify the continued economic hardship.

[seafoid]

It's the constant lies and bullshit that they come out with that annoys me
Can't answer a simple question without a bullshit answer
The smugness
Never admit they got anything wrong
The lies with the testing
The car crash tv interviews
They seen what was coming before it came and still failed to lockdown
Absolutely morons

They are incompetent

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/06/01/the-lost-march-how-the-uk-governments-covid-19-strategy-fell-apart/

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/09/markets-pocketing-global-recovery-does-not-yet-exist/

The World Health Organisation says the global pandemic is getting worse, not better. Hans Kluge, the WHO's Europe chief, told The Telegraph this week that he fears a more deadly second wave this winter.

[RadioGAAGAA]

We have a conundrum on this one Franko in that while Radio has consistently proven himself (or herself) able to understand and relay the science, his leaning has consistently been towards the catastrophic conclusion.  Not quite Neil Ferguson levels, but definitely erring on the "lock yourself in a bunker" side of caution. So while the overview was largely on the money, the impact was never close.

Do you not think shutting down the economy for 3 months had an impact on how bad it could have been?

Anyway, on the 2nd wave. I hope it doesn't happen. Things are gonna be awful enough here with this and Brexit looming without another wave. Perhaps it has mutated into a more benign form (as the Italians firmly believe).


Yet, history looms like a shadow. The Spanish flu was first identified in March 1918. In April/May 1918 it spread in its initial form across England/France/Spain/Italy. Yet it wasn't so bad (or at least, not near as bad as it would get). Cases dropped off through the summer and the thinking was it was gone. Then in the autumn it mutated - made worse by all the troops being transported around the world -and killed millions. A third wave in 1919 was as deadly per case as the 2nd wave, but had less cases due to reduced international travelling.

In the first world war, all nations had a total of ~70m troops involved over the course of the war. 80 million people pass through just London Heathrow in a year. The world is incredibly vulnerable to a 2nd spike of a mutated virus emerging anywhere else in the world and spreading if the correct measures are not taken at all air/sea ports. I'm very wary of the political will being necessary to either (i) sufficiently guard against it, (ii) react in a timely fashion to another outbreak and (iii) close down international transport as necessary to protect national economies.

Hopefully any mutations are (a) not detrimental to the vaccines in development and (b) make the virus more benign. Neither are guaranteed though.

[Smurfy123]

We are basing a second wave of the Spanish flu over 100 years ago
Yes we will see spikes that's where the track an trace comes into play
We hadn't got that in 1916. Better health care
8 deaths in the south today only 8 cases. Strange the deaths in the south seem very high compared to the cases they are getting. Low cases but still 8/9 deaths that's not good reading

[armaghniac]

5m unemployment predicted and the virus isn't yet under control.
I think the Tories may be snookered.

You can't bullshit a virus, it doesn't pay any attention.

[GetOverTheBar]

We have a conundrum on this one Franko in that while Radio has consistently proven himself (or herself) able to understand and relay the science, his leaning has consistently been towards the catastrophic conclusion.  Not quite Neil Ferguson levels, but definitely erring on the "lock yourself in a bunker" side of caution. So while the overview was largely on the money, the impact was never close.

Do you not think shutting down the economy for 3 months had an impact on how bad it could have been?

Anyway, on the 2nd wave. I hope it doesn't happen. Things are gonna be awful enough here with this and Brexit looming without another wave. Perhaps it has mutated into a more benign form (as the Italians firmly believe).


Yet, history looms like a shadow. The Spanish flu was first identified in March 1918. In April/May 1918 it spread in its initial form across England/France/Spain/Italy. Yet it wasn't so bad (or at least, not near as bad as it would get). Cases dropped off through the summer and the thinking was it was gone. Then in the autumn it mutated - made worse by all the troops being transported around the world -and killed millions. A third wave in 1919 was as deadly per case as the 2nd wave, but had less cases due to reduced international travelling.

In the first world war, all nations had a total of ~70m troops involved over the course of the war. 80 million people pass through just London Heathrow in a year. The world is incredibly vulnerable to a 2nd spike of a mutated virus emerging anywhere else in the world and spreading if the correct measures are not taken at all air/sea ports. I'm very wary of the political will being necessary to either (i) sufficiently guard against it, (ii) react in a timely fashion to another outbreak and (iii) close down international transport as necessary to protect national economies.

Hopefully any mutations are (a) not detrimental to the vaccines in development and (b) make the virus more benign. Neither are guaranteed though.

The above on the Spanish Flu is correct, but you should also mention just for the other side of reason, the conditions that troops faced due to the nature of the tactics used in WW1 would have contributed massively towards spreading of virus'.

Arguably the perfect mix for any virus to spread like wildfire, the conditions in the trenches must have been absolutely horrific, then add in the inconveniences like dead bodies, dead horses on top of a diet that was nearly void of anything like we now know.

[johnnycool]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/09/markets-pocketing-global-recovery-does-not-yet-exist/

The World Health Organisation says the global pandemic is getting worse, not better. Hans Kluge, the WHO's Europe chief, told The Telegraph this week that he fears a more deadly second wave this winter.

It's still to reach it's peak in the likes of Brazil and Latin America and in that sense is getting worse as the epicentre has moved from Europe (not sure about Russia though) to the Americas.

If you look at the trends on John Hopkins it looks like Iran has already had a second peak of infections.

[imtommygunn]

A friend of mine reckons there will maybe be 5 or 6 waves never mind 2. He's a doctor too who's reading all the medical papers on it and this is what they seem to think. Definitely moving the right direction but this shit is far from over yet.

[Smurfy123]

There is no doubt a second wave is very possible but if we as a society try to stick the the social distancing as best we can and be aware of the new norm then we should be well able to control the number of people that do get it. That along with a world class track and trace system should do it. Also the airports should be the next thing now. Fire everything at that for now
Now it's almost impossible to get rid of it because of the shit show that's happening in England. They are a shambles and takes us down with them

[thewobbler]

A friend of mine reckons there will maybe be 5 or 6 waves never mind 2. He's a doctor too who's reading all the medical papers on it and this is what they seem to think. Definitely moving the right direction but this shit is far from over yet.

See this is the stuff that drives me potty. Epidemiology experts, it seems, have finally calmed down a little with their "the end is nigh" predictions. But a doctor who has read some medical papers, and has combined inherent bias with outdated thinking, won't let the bone go.

Doctors, with the greatest respect to them, are only marginally more qualified in their opinions here than Ashley Cole and Raheem Sterling are.

[Jeepers Creepers]

Florida, Arizona & Texas seeing their 2nd peaks now as a result from their early lockdown easing. I assume 2nd Peakes cant be avoided and are part of the natural progeression of a virus until it peters out?

[imtommygunn]

A friend of mine reckons there will maybe be 5 or 6 waves never mind 2. He's a doctor too who's reading all the medical papers on it and this is what they seem to think. Definitely moving the right direction but this shit is far from over yet.

See this is the stuff that drives me potty. Epidemiology experts, it seems, have finally calmed down a little with their "the end is nigh" predictions. But a doctor who has read some medical papers, and has combined inherent bias with outdated thinking, won't let the bone go.

Doctors, with the greatest respect to them, are only marginally more qualified in their opinions here than Ashley Cole and Raheem Sterling are.

[Taylor]

A friend of mine reckons there will maybe be 5 or 6 waves never mind 2. He's a doctor too who's reading all the medical papers on it and this is what they seem to think. Definitely moving the right direction but this shit is far from over yet.

See this is the stuff that drives me potty. Epidemiology experts, it seems, have finally calmed down a little with their "the end is nigh" predictions. But a doctor who has read some medical papers, and has combined inherent bias with outdated thinking, won't let the bone go.

Doctors, with the greatest respect to them, are only marginally more qualified in their opinions here than Ashley Cole and Raheem Sterling are.

Spot on wobbler - Cole & Sterling , the lazy fucks, only completed 4 years at medical school before concentrating on the soccer.