China Coronavirus

[RadioGAAGAA]

You're such a tit. You keep saying this, yet I never said it. I see you're a man for detail.

Oh did you not?

http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=29555.msg1970198#msg1970198

I could study "the science" for 24 hours and I'd be better placed to make decisions on what to do rather than these clowns.

Unless I've erred in assuming that studying the science would mean reading literature on the subject.

Perhaps you meant read facebook for 24 hrs instead?

Good man - now go back and read what you said I said.

Study the science = read books you eejit. With every post you are literally making yourself look stupider and stupider.

I suppose it could mean scientific journals too, but for all intentions and purposes they might as well be books.

I expect what?

I do not expect anyone to put themselves at risk in order to give token gestures of hope that things will get back to normal.

Cool we're all in this together.

And the risk is minuscule.

Are you an expert on this?

No, but he's read books on it for 24hrs.

[Not sure who wrote the books though - as apparently the scientists and experts don't know what they are doing]

[Taylor]

I know schools in reality won't be going back until September. I think that is wrong and can see no logical reason for it.

Because the benefit of 10 random days at school before 2 months off doesn't outweigh the risk of people contracting Covid-19.

That's my logical reason but you are entitled to your own.

Honestly Hardstation, I've been at home minding 2 kids, one at primary school one not school age, since the 16th March. My wife is a nurse and is working. I am at home trying to keep a small business a float paying wages to keep roofs over other families heads who all have small children. We've lost around 90% of turnover and I am into my own personal savings and then probably I'll take out a huge loan and god knows if I will be able to pay it back. It's a huge strain on my mental health.
Now forgive me, but I think that even if the schools open for one day it would be a huge lift to parents around the country and would signal that normality would return someday because at this stage parents who own businesses or are employees are looking for any sort of positive sign right now.
We're all in this together but the reality is we're not and the situation favours some families over others. Maybe Teachers will take this into consideration.

You expect teachers and kids to put themselves at risk of the disease for the token gesture of giving parents hope that one day things will get back to normal? I am genuinely sorry to hear of your circumstances but I still think your request is unreasonable.

Yeah I have to agree with this.
Lots of people are struggling and lots of people will lose jobs and companies and that is going to be really difficult and life changing for those affected.
But Teachers have families too. Kids may not be getting sick in the same numbers as older people, but some do get sick. What if your child was one of them?
What if your child was a carrier and was asymptomatic but infected a class full of other kids, one of which dies as a result. How would that death affect the mental health of other children in the class? Or the teachers who might bring it home to their kids or extended family?
My wife is a P1 teacher, and with kids that age in a school setting it will be impossible to keep them socially distanced. They just want to play. How does one teacher keep perhaps a dozen kids from coming into close personal contact? It's just not practically possible.
My own opinion is that all schools should stay off for a full year. Return around the same time next year that they were closed this year providing that the disease has be controlled. Then just start them back where they left off. P1 is still P1, university students, secondary students everyone back to were they were. A brutal blunt method, but it would keep everyone safe over that period and simplify all the issues around exams, transfers to new schools for p7s etc.

There's a real danger here that schools are being made scapegoats for the failings of a governemnt. Had they acted appropriated in the first instance with testing and tracing, perhaps we could be like South Korea, or New Zealand. But they didnt and we're not and now we're being told to take risks with our kids to get the money flowing again.
I'm sorry, but I wouldn't risk my kids for any money and I wouldn't expect a teacher to put themselves or their extended families at risk either. I'd rather survive and be poor than die with money in my pocket.

I've 6 kids at home, both my parents are shielding due to underlying health problems, my mother in law too. We are both working from home, balancing home schooling and work is not a trivial thing.
The only way out of this, if there is a way out, is not to rush back or we will suffer more for longer. The virus can wait us out and holds all the cards. We have to decide what's most important, getting back to "normal" or surviving.

No TV in your house brick?

[APM]

I expect what?

I do not expect anyone to put themselves at risk in order to give token gestures of hope that things will get back to normal.

Cool we're all in this together.

And the risk is minuscule.

Are you an expert on this?
The one thing that has been a constant on this, is that there are all manner of lay-people offering up their "expertise" on something that even the experts don't understand fully. 

Out of interest:
Do you have children? Yes
Do you have elderly parents? Yes
Do you have an underlying illness or health condition that would put you at risk? No

Here boss, in case you haven't noticed it's a discussion board. People give opinions.

If the figures are to be believed and I see no reason not to at least trust the percentages, even if the totals aren't 100% accurate, this is a disease of the over 70s.

My issue is that you present your opinions as if they are facts. 

Cool we're all in this together.
And the risk is minuscule.

You would think you have assessed the risk based on your extensive study and research in the field of virology and all of the available evidence. 
The risk is different for different people. It isn't just about the risk to kids, but to teachers and those that they come into contact with. 

[APM]

Yeah I have to agree with this.
Lots of people are struggling and lots of people will lose jobs and companies and that is going to be really difficult and life changing for those affected.
But Teachers have families too. Kids may not be getting sick in the same numbers as older people, but some do get sick. What if your child was one of them?
What if your child was a carrier and was asymptomatic but infected a class full of other kids, one of which dies as a result. How would that death affect the mental health of other children in the class? Or the teachers who might bring it home to their kids or extended family?
My wife is a P1 teacher, and with kids that age in a school setting it will be impossible to keep them socially distanced. They just want to play. How does one teacher keep perhaps a dozen kids from coming into close personal contact? It's just not practically possible.
My own opinion is that all schools should stay off for a full year. Return around the same time next year that they were closed this year providing that the disease has be controlled. Then just start them back where they left off. P1 is still P1, university students, secondary students everyone back to were they were. A brutal blunt method, but it would keep everyone safe over that period and simplify all the issues around exams, transfers to new schools for p7s etc.

There's a real danger here that schools are being made scapegoats for the failings of a governemnt. Had they acted appropriated in the first instance with testing and tracing, perhaps we could be like South Korea, or New Zealand. But they didnt and we're not and now we're being told to take risks with our kids to get the money flowing again.
I'm sorry, but I wouldn't risk my kids for any money and I wouldn't expect a teacher to put themselves or their extended families at risk either. I'd rather survive and be poor than die with money in my pocket.

I've 6 kids at home, both my parents are shielding due to underlying health problems, my mother in law too. We are both working from home, balancing home schooling and work is not a trivial thing.
The only way out of this, if there is a way out, is not to rush back or we will suffer more for longer. The virus can wait us out and holds all the cards. We have to decide what's most important, getting back to "normal" or surviving.

The way in which school teachers are being vilified in some aspects of the press is ridiculous.   tbrick's post hits the nail on the head.  Not sure about closing schools for a full year, but for all the populist guff the Daily Mail and other elements of the right wing have been spreading about clapping hands for the NHS, they are showing downright contempt for teachers.  There should be a special place in hell for hypocrites like these. 

[GetOverTheBar]

How much of a factor is obesity in the number of deaths and people taking ill?

Seen the video of the queues looking to get into the KFC on the Boucher Road last week - unreal.

I would say it's a factor, not thee factor. The older generation were majority all smokers.....they were told it was cool etc. They've decades of inhalation, it's not a surprised a respiratory illness is now responsible for their deaths in my eyes, of course factor in age on top.

The video for the KFC was just sad, seriously people....I mean its alright....its just alright. And that's if you even get it warm.

[johnnycool]

How much of a factor is obesity in the number of deaths and people taking ill?

Seen the video of the queues looking to get into the KFC on the Boucher Road last week - unreal.

I would say it's a factor, not thee factor. The older generation were majority all smokers.....they were told it was cool etc. They've decades of inhalation, it's not a surprised a respiratory illness is now responsible for their deaths in my eyes, of course factor in age on top.

The video for the KFC was just sad, seriously people....I mean its alright....its just alright. And that's if you even get it warm.

Nearly as bad as the crowds queuing for the amenity centre in Bangor, one woman sat in the queue for 2 hours just to dump off a microwave..

WTF people.

[Taylor]

How much of a factor is obesity in the number of deaths and people taking ill?

Seen the video of the queues looking to get into the KFC on the Boucher Road last week - unreal.

I would say it's a factor, not thee factor. The older generation were majority all smokers.....they were told it was cool etc. They've decades of inhalation, it's not a surprised a respiratory illness is now responsible for their deaths in my eyes, of course factor in age on top.

The video for the KFC was just sad, seriously people....I mean its alright....its just alright. And that's if you even get it warm.

IF and its a big IF you get it warm its hard to beat a bucket and half a dozen wings

[Maroon Manc]

I think it was the assistant chief medical officer over here who stated yesterday it looks like that kids aren't passing the disease on like adults although they've no hard evidence of that yet.

According to a report on LBC yesterday that there hasn't been a case in Denmark or Germany of a teacher catching it when back teaching.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/70-cases-of-covid-19-linked-to-french-schools-days-after-reopening-1000165.html?fbclid=IwAR0jqHvFa1snKPTLYnwuktOry_i4HccBvTOXEA5dn2y1xH1etIt-BnUHvGA

That article is a little light on information.

Mr Blanquer did not specify if the 70 cases of Covid-19 were among students or teachers.
Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are "likely" to have been infected before the reopening of schools, he said.

[GetOverTheBar]

How much of a factor is obesity in the number of deaths and people taking ill?

Seen the video of the queues looking to get into the KFC on the Boucher Road last week - unreal.

I would say it's a factor, not thee factor. The older generation were majority all smokers.....they were told it was cool etc. They've decades of inhalation, it's not a surprised a respiratory illness is now responsible for their deaths in my eyes, of course factor in age on top.

The video for the KFC was just sad, seriously people....I mean its alright....its just alright. And that's if you even get it warm.

Nearly as bad as the crowds queuing for the amenity centre in Bangor, one woman sat in the queue for 2 hours just to dump off a microwave..

WTF people.

I don't know why we are surprised either, when it snows here for a day or two people go into meltdown altogether. Those few days before Xmas when shops close for one day (they are still open on Xmas morning) the rush is insane.

[trailer]

I expect what?

I do not expect anyone to put themselves at risk in order to give token gestures of hope that things will get back to normal.

Cool we're all in this together.

And the risk is minuscule.

Are you an expert on this?
The one thing that has been a constant on this, is that there are all manner of lay-people offering up their "expertise" on something that even the experts don't understand fully. 

Out of interest:
Do you have children? Yes
Do you have elderly parents? Yes
Do you have an underlying illness or health condition that would put you at risk? No

Here boss, in case you haven't noticed it's a discussion board. People give opinions.

If the figures are to be believed and I see no reason not to at least trust the percentages, even if the totals aren't 100% accurate, this is a disease of the over 70s.

My issue is that you present your opinions as if they are facts. 

Cool we're all in this together.
And the risk is minuscule.

You would think you have assessed the risk based on your extensive study and research in the field of virology. 
The risk is different for different people. It isn't just about the risk to kids, but to teachers and those that they come into contact with.

Here's a fairly balanced article

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-what-are-the-coronavirus-risks-to-children

On this basis, we tentatively estimate the mortality risk to children from the 2017-18 flu outbreak was around seven times greater than the risk they currently face from coronavirus.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge estimates that the risk to children of catching and then dying from coronavirus is one in 5.3 million.

(That's based on two deaths out of a population of 10.7 million under-15s in England and Wales.)

It means that on average, under-15s face the lowest coronavirus fatality risk of any age group. The over-90s face the highest risk, with a one in 81 chance of catching and dying from the disease, according to Professor Spiegelhalter's calculations.

Asked about the factors policymakers should consider when reopening schools, Professor Russell Viner of the Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health said yesterday: "Well how do we balance risks in normal life? The total numbers of children who get this [new inflammatory] syndrome are very small."

On this extremely rare syndrome...
Dr Whittaker said "the majority [of children with the syndrome] get better within four to six days, and we have a cohort of them who are already at home with their parents and being closely monitored".

He considers how we mitigate the risk of other causes of death in children: "160-170 die in car crashes [each year]. Those deaths are tragic but also rare. How do we manage those? We take steps to prevent these deaths. We buy child seats, we use seat belts, we sometimes buy better cars. But we don't stop driving."

There's risks but they are tiny.

[JoG2]

How much of a factor is obesity in the number of deaths and people taking ill?

Seen the video of the queues looking to get into the KFC on the Boucher Road last week - unreal.

I would say it's a factor, not thee factor. The older generation were majority all smokers.....they were told it was cool etc. They've decades of inhalation, it's not a surprised a respiratory illness is now responsible for their deaths in my eyes, of course factor in age on top.

The video for the KFC was just sad, seriously people....I mean its alright....its just alright. And that's if you even get it warm.

Nearly as bad as the crowds queuing for the amenity centre in Bangor, one woman sat in the queue for 2 hours just to dump off a microwave..

WTF people.

Maybe queuing in the safety of their cars for a KFC or 2 hours to drop off a microwave has been the highlight of these folks lockdown? A bit of rest bite from the house and the cabin fever madness.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Here's a fairly balanced article

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-what-are-the-coronavirus-risks-to-children

On this basis, we tentatively estimate the mortality risk to children from the 2017-18 flu outbreak was around seven times greater than the risk they currently face from coronavirus.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge estimates that the risk to children of catching and then dying from coronavirus is one in 5.3 million.

(That's based on two deaths out of a population of 10.7 million under-15s in England and Wales.)

It means that on average, under-15s face the lowest coronavirus fatality risk of any age group. The over-90s face the highest risk, with a one in 81 chance of catching and dying from the disease, according to Professor Spiegelhalter's calculations.

Asked about the factors policymakers should consider when reopening schools, Professor Russell Viner of the Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health said yesterday: "Well how do we balance risks in normal life? The total numbers of children who get this [new inflammatory] syndrome are very small."

On this extremely rare syndrome...
Dr Whittaker said "the majority [of children with the syndrome] get better within four to six days, and we have a cohort of them who are already at home with their parents and being closely monitored".

He considers how we mitigate the risk of other causes of death in children: "160-170 die in car crashes [each year]. Those deaths are tragic but also rare. How do we manage those? We take steps to prevent these deaths. We buy child seats, we use seat belts, we sometimes buy better cars. But we don't stop driving."

There's risks but they are tiny.

You are not listening to anything anyone is saying.

No-one, literally no-one, is saying that the risk to kids themselves are not lower than the rest of the population.

However, the risk to adults that are in contact with the kids is not reduced.

Until there is clear evidence that kids are not transmitting - and clear evidence is more than a vague statement somewhere without several peer-reviewed studies to back it up - then opening schools is a high risk decision as they can easily become transmission centres.


edit: As per f**king usual, the UK govt (aided by an inept press) are lying through their teeth.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200430/reopening-denmark-has-increased-rate-of-infection-spread-ssu

The rate at which the coronavirus infection is spreading in Denmark has increased since the country opened schools and kindergartens, but not enough to stop the decline in the number of people infected.
According to a new analysis from Denmark's infectious diseases agency SSI, the so-called reproduction rate has increased from 0.6 to 0.9, still below the crucial figure of 1, which means that each infected person on average infects on average one other over the course of their illness.

edit2: I was hoping to find at least one study of R0 within Denmark with particular focus around the reopening of schools - its not like its of no interest to anyone! I had kinda hoped they'd at least picked a few schools as samples and were testing them to track growth. So far, nothing - all newspaper articles instead which are less than useless for reliable information. If I see anything I'll bring it in here.

[tbrick18]

I know schools in reality won't be going back until September. I think that is wrong and can see no logical reason for it.

Because the benefit of 10 random days at school before 2 months off doesn't outweigh the risk of people contracting Covid-19.

That's my logical reason but you are entitled to your own.

Honestly Hardstation, I've been at home minding 2 kids, one at primary school one not school age, since the 16th March. My wife is a nurse and is working. I am at home trying to keep a small business a float paying wages to keep roofs over other families heads who all have small children. We've lost around 90% of turnover and I am into my own personal savings and then probably I'll take out a huge loan and god knows if I will be able to pay it back. It's a huge strain on my mental health.
Now forgive me, but I think that even if the schools open for one day it would be a huge lift to parents around the country and would signal that normality would return someday because at this stage parents who own businesses or are employees are looking for any sort of positive sign right now.
We're all in this together but the reality is we're not and the situation favours some families over others. Maybe Teachers will take this into consideration.

You expect teachers and kids to put themselves at risk of the disease for the token gesture of giving parents hope that one day things will get back to normal? I am genuinely sorry to hear of your circumstances but I still think your request is unreasonable.

Yeah I have to agree with this.
Lots of people are struggling and lots of people will lose jobs and companies and that is going to be really difficult and life changing for those affected.
But Teachers have families too. Kids may not be getting sick in the same numbers as older people, but some do get sick. What if your child was one of them?
What if your child was a carrier and was asymptomatic but infected a class full of other kids, one of which dies as a result. How would that death affect the mental health of other children in the class? Or the teachers who might bring it home to their kids or extended family?
My wife is a P1 teacher, and with kids that age in a school setting it will be impossible to keep them socially distanced. They just want to play. How does one teacher keep perhaps a dozen kids from coming into close personal contact? It's just not practically possible.
My own opinion is that all schools should stay off for a full year. Return around the same time next year that they were closed this year providing that the disease has be controlled. Then just start them back where they left off. P1 is still P1, university students, secondary students everyone back to were they were. A brutal blunt method, but it would keep everyone safe over that period and simplify all the issues around exams, transfers to new schools for p7s etc.

There's a real danger here that schools are being made scapegoats for the failings of a governemnt. Had they acted appropriated in the first instance with testing and tracing, perhaps we could be like South Korea, or New Zealand. But they didnt and we're not and now we're being told to take risks with our kids to get the money flowing again.
I'm sorry, but I wouldn't risk my kids for any money and I wouldn't expect a teacher to put themselves or their extended families at risk either. I'd rather survive and be poor than die with money in my pocket.

I've 6 kids at home, both my parents are shielding due to underlying health problems, my mother in law too. We are both working from home, balancing home schooling and work is not a trivial thing.
The only way out of this, if there is a way out, is not to rush back or we will suffer more for longer. The virus can wait us out and holds all the cards. We have to decide what's most important, getting back to "normal" or surviving.

No TV in your house brick?

There is....I just like riding better 

[trailer]

You are not listening to anything anyone is saying.

No-one, literally no-one, is saying that the risk to kids themselves are not lower than the rest of the population.

However, the risk to adults that are in contact with the kids is not reduced.

Until there is clear evidence that kids are not transmitting - and clear evidence is more than a vague statement somewhere without several peer-reviewed studies to back it up - then opening schools is a high risk decision as they can easily become transmission centres.

Well if they can't open the schools and teachers refuse (which is their right) then make them redundant and close schools permanently until a vaccine is found. Because only a fool thinks things are changing between now and September or whatever arbitrary date in the future.

[RadioGAAGAA]

You are not listening to anything anyone is saying.

No-one, literally no-one, is saying that the risk to kids themselves are not lower than the rest of the population.

However, the risk to adults that are in contact with the kids is not reduced.

Until there is clear evidence that kids are not transmitting - and clear evidence is more than a vague statement somewhere without several peer-reviewed studies to back it up - then opening schools is a high risk decision as they can easily become transmission centres.

Well if they can't open the schools and teachers refuse (which is their right) then make them redundant and close schools permanently until a vaccine is found. Because only a fool thinks things are changing between now and September or whatever arbitrary date in the future.

Furlough them?

Teachers are currently providing online classes (such as they are). Its not very time efficient but it is what it is. I'd say most would happily take a furlough rather than persist trying to teach 30 kids that don't follow instruction across the 'net. Certainly those that have to write end of year reports would leap at the chance I'd think!!