China Coronavirus

[five points]

That's ok, and thank you. He should indeed let it go.

[five points]

Yes I would be happy with my kids going to school
When they go outside for a cycle do I worry? Yes I do. Do I stop them. No I don't
Lads it 2 classes of say 60 kids in total of a school that can hold say 300 people
If it was all kids back in together then I would say that madness

So that's a no then? Kids don't transfer the virus? My wife is a teacher, goes to school and she is safe from contracting the virus from school kids? Can you put up a link for that? And not a post from Karen on FB please?

You, she and everyone else knows that there are never, ever any guarantees in life, yet life must go on. If we all insist on absolute guarantees of safety, everything grinds to a halt forever.

Maybe your wife should work in a Lidl store for a few weeks. There are thousands of people in and out of them every day but the staff seem to manage somehow.

[thewobbler]

And just like that, 3 posts in a row along the lines of "why would Germans lie, why would Koreans lie? But them damned English, all they do is lie".

Look you're entitled to distrust the UK.

But your willingness to trust politicians from other countries is founded on racial stereotypes or confirmation bias. Not reality.

No. Read what I said.

Not what you want to think I said.

Are the Germans lying? Unlikely, there isn't much data that contradicts the official line.

That's what you said.

I'm not going to over explore this or presume I can read your inner mind.

But you must have confidence in the German data to make such a statement.

My point is that if you have confidence in the accuracy and integrity of other countrys' data then you are most likely suffering from confirmation bias or racial stereotyping, or maybe both.

It's exceptionally easy to dismiss UK data and statements, as we can all read them in our native tongue, and we all have a list of English speaking sources we trust and distrust. We do not have such a filter on data from any other country, with the exception of the USA, given we share a language and so much popular culture with them.

Of course such a statement will upset you. But it's true.

[RadioGAAGAA]

And just like that, 3 posts in a row along the lines of "why would Germans lie, why would Koreans lie? But them damned English, all they do is lie".

Look you're entitled to distrust the UK.

But your willingness to trust politicians from other countries is founded on racial stereotypes or confirmation bias. Not reality.

No. Read what I said.

Not what you want to think I said.

Are the Germans lying? Unlikely, there isn't much data that contradicts the official line.

That's what you said.

I'm not going to over explore this or presume I can read your inner mind.

But you must have confidence in the German data to make such a statement.

My point is that if you have confidence in the accuracy and integrity of other countrys' data then you are most likely suffering from confirmation bias or racial stereotyping, or maybe both.

It's exceptionally easy to dismiss UK data and statements, as we can all read them in our native tongue, and we all have a list of English speaking sources we trust and distrust. We do not have such a filter on data from any other country, with the exception of the USA, given we share a language and so much popular culture with them.

Of course such a statement will upset you. But it's true.

Emphasis on the bit in bold:

Are the Germans lying? Unlikely, there isn't much data that contradicts the official line.

That is why I have confidence in the German data. Not because of where it comes from. Not because of what language its in. But because of a large and wide volume of information that all more or less arrives at the same conclusion.


Go and try to find any half reputable source of information that even alleges the Germans are trying to hide numbers.
Go look at the German death rate in 2020 compared to the historical trends.

[6th sam]

Yes I would be happy with my kids going to school
When they go outside for a cycle do I worry? Yes I do. Do I stop them. No I don't
Lads it 2 classes of say 60 kids in total of a school that can hold say 300 people
If it was all kids back in together then I would say that madness

So that's a no then? Kids don't transfer the virus? My wife is a teacher, goes to school and she is safe from contracting the virus from school kids? Can you put up a link for that? And not a post from Karen on FB please?

You, she and everyone else knows that there are never, ever any guarantees in life, yet life must go on. If we all insist on absolute guarantees of safety, everything grinds to a halt forever.

Maybe your wife should work in a Lidl store for a few weeks. There are thousands of people in and out of them every day but the staff seem to manage somehow.

I think a "grin and bear it" approach is insensitive. Ultimately we want everyone back to work but we need to maximise and contextualise all the scientific info available, to try to
Optimise safety in a pragmatic way.
I can understand teacher's concerns and though the virus is relatively very low risk for children themselves , adult teachers in the several vulnerable groupings eg ethnicity, obesity, diabetes should remain cocooned. Minimising cumulative viral
Load and spread can be achieved in many work settings but is a major challenge in schools.
Apart from the economic and educational benefit of "safe" return to school, for me there are compelling arguments in the context of social inequalities, and child protection.
We know that Home schooling appears to widen the social class educational gap, but crucially vulnerable children at least have a "safe place" In school, a window of protection , and also an opportunity for signs of abuse to be spotted by professionals.
I don't have comparative data but various forms of child abuse sadly remain a major issue for society , and the risks and concerns of return to school must be viewed in this protective context. It must also be noted  that other protective environments such as sports and other group activities, and social work input have also been reduced , whilst violence and alcohol consumption in the home appears to have increased. These are very real concerns and need to be taken into account when assessing the understandable concerns of reopening schools.

[Smokin Joe]

Yes I would be happy with my kids going to school
When they go outside for a cycle do I worry? Yes I do. Do I stop them. No I don't
Lads it 2 classes of say 60 kids in total of a school that can hold say 300 people
If it was all kids back in together then I would say that madness

So that's a no then? Kids don't transfer the virus? My wife is a teacher, goes to school and she is safe from contracting the virus from school kids? Can you put up a link for that? And not a post from Karen on FB please?

This isn't by Karen from FB, but instead is a series of tweets by an Epidemiologist, quoting several studies:

Summary: there is mounting evidence that children are as likely to be infected as adults; some children can experience severe illness.
First, a recap. Studies in this sub-thread provide evidence that some children can experience severe disease, can shed infectious virus, can likely infect others, and for the effectiveness of school closures.
There is growing evidence that children and adults are at equal risk of infection with the novel coronavirus. Some studies which have suggested otherwise have some important caveats.
This study from China found that children were less likely to be infected than adults in households. However, all household members were promptly quarantined away from their home when a case was detected.
In contrast, more recent studies show that in the absence of strict quarantine measures, children and adults seem to be at a similar risk.
Data from China showing no difference in the proportion of children and adults infected with the novel coronavirus.
Data from Switzerland showing no difference in the proportion of children and adults infected with the novel coronavirus.
Data from Germany showing no difference in the proportion of children and adults infected with the novel coronavirus.
Data from the UK showing no difference in the proportion of children and adults infected with the novel coronavirus.
We have also witnessed the emergence of a new Kawasaki-like illness (now called paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome - #PIMS) in children.
Data from the UK show that the Kawasaki-like illness affecting children likely results from infection with the novel coronavirus.
The incidence of Kawasaki-like illness in children has increased 30-fold in Bergamo, Italy.
It's very important to note that this syndrome appears to be rare. However, it does show that we don't yet fully understand all of the risks associated with the novel coronavirus.
While it now seems likely that children and adults are at equal risk of infection with the novel coronavirus, we don't yet know how readily children transmit the virus to others. Previous research (linked to at the start of this thread) has shown this is possible however.
In regions where there is ongoing community transmission of the novel coronavirus, the evidence suggests that reopening schools could increase the spread of the virus, both in the school and the wider community.
It would therefore seem sensible to first ascertain that the risk of community transmission is low (for example, by random testing of the population), before considering reopening schools.
If schools reopen in regions with a low risk of community transmission, measures should be taken to protect teachers and students. This could include wearing masks, rearranged seating, increased ventilation, and staggering of classes.

The thread can be seen here:
https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1261576137358012417

[imtommygunn]

Also the tories and the media have decided that teachers are now the enemy because of this. The media decide who people get outraged at.

It's still not well understood at all. Schools IMO should be waiting a bit.

[trailer]

Smurf is right while everyone else is wrong.
He's getting his facts straight from Karen.

I don't understand this. It's a discussion board. What would you suggest he do? Agree with everyone? If you don't like or even understand the concept then you can leave.

Discussion involves at least a minimal attempt to entertain and dissect the merits of all arguments put forward. There is little evidence of that from Smurfy and a few like minded types on this thread over the last few months.

Instead, their approach seems to have been to avoid any genuine deliberation on ideas or information, in favour of a scattergun volley of misunderstood and misrepresented stats and titbits gleaned from a multitude of less than reliable sources.

It's all in very bad faith, and very like the climate change or anti-vaxxer 'debate'. Ignore discussion of core issues, because the evidence is overwhelmingly against them in this area, and instead throw out tangential trivia until you hit on something that can not be immediately explained. The failure to immediately explain away this usually inconsequential detail is then used as justification to rubbish the entire body of understanding of an issue, and a weird sort of victory is claimed.

The recent mentions of COVID-19 case incidence in Georgia, or of cancer death rates are both prime examples. Misunderstood, misrepresented, and tangential (or just completely irrelevant) to what was being discussed.

There's a lot of stuff being peddled as facts. A fair bit of it has been proven wrong. A lot of these medical experts and scientific advisers have been shown up for what they are. I would be very sceptical of any information being peddled by the British Government. 

[trailer]

Throughout these unusual times, I've found it somewhere between puzzling and amazing, just how easily people can convince themselves that an accurate picture is available of what's happening in countries thousands of miles away, while remaining completely sceptical about the information released in the UK (and to some extent, Ireland)

Boris and co may well actually be an abomination, but how they use/control/bend the truth is far, far from unique in the world of politics.

Totally agree. All the information we're getting from China, the WHO, US, and other nations is absolutely farcical.
Another thing I want to ask. Who actually trusts this R we keep hearing about? How do they know what it is? They haven't the slightest clue. Yet we keep hearing they are using it in decision making process. They may as well take info on the next high tide and full moon into the process for all the good it does.

[Milltown Row2]

Yes I would be happy with my kids going to school
When they go outside for a cycle do I worry? Yes I do. Do I stop them. No I don't
Lads it 2 classes of say 60 kids in total of a school that can hold say 300 people
If it was all kids back in together then I would say that madness

So that's a no then? Kids don't transfer the virus? My wife is a teacher, goes to school and she is safe from contracting the virus from school kids? Can you put up a link for that? And not a post from Karen on FB please?

You, she and everyone else knows that there are never, ever any guarantees in life, yet life must go on. If we all insist on absolute guarantees of safety, everything grinds to a halt forever.

Maybe your wife should work in a Lidl store for a few weeks. There are thousands of people in and out of them every day but the staff seem to manage somehow.

Maybe you should just let smurfy answer the question.

As for yours, my wife is working everyday as a teacher, and on call to cover kids in school, why she needs to get another job is beyond me.

[RadioGAAGAA]

There's a lot of stuff being peddled as facts. A fair bit of it has been proven wrong. A lot of these medical experts and scientific advisers have been shown up for what they are. I would be very sceptical of any information being peddled by the British Government.

I absolutely agree with your last sentence.

The word of the British government isn't worth shit right now.

However, anyone in here that appears to be reasonably informed are getting their information from anywhere but the British government.


In terms of facts and facts being proven wrong. There are very few absolute facts here, quantitative facts especially - whereas qualitative facts are much more likely to be asserted and be correct. 99.999% of information presented anywhere on this is full of caveats and must be interpreted considering those caveats. There are some fundamentals about epidemics and viruses, but even many of those aren't inflexible to some degree.

Its not black and white, its mostly shades of grey. Unfortunately many people see a very dark shade of grey and then twist that to mean "off white".

For instance, certain folks are very against lockdown (for various reasons, some I can sympathise a lot with) - they then find a fringe case of where it may or may not work - then try to use that to say lockdown in its entirety doesn't work and is unnecessary.

[It should be noted that I'd think most would agree lockdown is using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. The trick is finding out the right balance of measures that stop spread while enabling economic productivity.]

[armaghniac]

Totally agree. All the information we're getting from China, the WHO, US, and other nations is absolutely farcical.

All the information is not farcical. The representation of it by politicians and the media may well be farcical. 

Another thing I want to ask. Who actually trusts this R we keep hearing about? How do they know what it is? They haven't the slightest clue. Yet we keep hearing they are using it in decision making process. They may as well take info on the next high tide and full moon into the process for all the good it does.

While they cannot calculate it precisely, of course they have  a good idea about it. If you get Covid19 and then they trace your contacts and see if they have Covid19.

[trailer]

Totally agree. All the information we're getting from China, the WHO, US, and other nations is absolutely farcical.

All the information is not farcical. The representation of it by politicians and the media may well be farcical. 

Another thing I want to ask. Who actually trusts this R we keep hearing about? How do they know what it is? They haven't the slightest clue. Yet we keep hearing they are using it in decision making process. They may as well take info on the next high tide and full moon into the process for all the good it does.

While they cannot calculate it precisely, of course they have  a good idea about it. If you get Covid19 and then they trace your contacts and see if they have Covid19.

Listen the R number is based on information from almost 2 weeks ago. So whatever the R number that they're holding up as fact is actually their best guess of the R 2 weeks ago. It's bullshit theatre to divert from the fact that the scientists and medical advisers do not know what is going on.

[Smurfy123]

Trailer knows his stuff. Like he says don't believe these scientists advising the uk government
Now after 8 weeks they add that a loss of smell and taste is added the the Covid symptoms
You actually could not make it up
They have come out of this very poorly

[J70]

Trailer knows his stuff. Like he says don't believe these scientists advising the uk government
Now after 8 weeks they add that a loss of smell and taste is added the the Covid symptoms
You actually could not make it up
They have come out of this very poorly

The loss of smell and taste has been a confirmed symptom for two months.