China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

Facebook is full of people complaining about the lockdown measures and looking a full return to work! Will momentum from these media sites and others put more pressure on the government to ease me lockdown?

Also why can you have 120 people in a plane and not in shopping centre?

[Smurfy123]

So the lead scientist advising the north here has said that the R number is low enough and has been for a few weeks to move onto phase 1 now. He said it. He actually said that yes he would advise that they can move forward now. Below 1 is key and he wants that to stay at that as we move through the phases. Now let's see what happens

[GetOverTheBar]

Facebook is full of people complaining about the lockdown measures and looking a full return to work! Will momentum from these media sites and others put more pressure on the government to ease me lockdown?

Also why can you have 120 people in a plane and not in shopping centre?

The plane situation beggars belief, but I'm yet to read that any of the passengers disembarked when they saw how full it was at same time.

Eventually public pressure will force the Govt. to ease lockdowns, I'm just waiting for the opportunists to commence....bars being closed to whenever will give rise to illegal raves.....barns....whatever. Only a matter of time. I've heard of hairdressers going about their daily work home to home or whatever the scenario maybe, immoral or necessary (by demand)?

For what it's worth, I think the next 3 or so weeks will see things take a marked turn for the better, I think the Govts. know that when they open things back up, there will be another rise and it will extremely hard to reintroduce measures right now is their 'buffer' they are trying to drag it out as long as they can at this stage.

[HiMucker]

McWilliams explains it better in fairness

Why are you putting so much stock in what McWilliams says? Has he not just passed a pile of exams to get where he is at? How do you decide what experts you should listen to and who not to listen to?

[screenexile]

Facebook is full of people complaining about the lockdown measures and looking a full return to work! Will momentum from these media sites and others put more pressure on the government to ease me lockdown?

Also why can you have 120 people in a plane and not in shopping centre?

I don't think it will be momentum from media sites I mean the Govt are Tories so this lockdown and Furlough scheme where Government just gives people cash goes against every fibre of their being.

One thing you can be sure of is the lifting of lockdown measures will not be done too slowly!!!

[imtommygunn]

Apparently there actually is some rationale on the plane scenario and the way the air conditioning works("laminar airflow" apparently). Some airlines have promised to leave middle aisle seats free. Obviously Michael O'Leary hasn't lol.

[imtommygunn]

Facebook is full of people complaining about the lockdown measures and looking a full return to work! Will momentum from these media sites and others put more pressure on the government to ease me lockdown?

Also why can you have 120 people in a plane and not in shopping centre?

I don't think it will be momentum from media sites I mean the Govt are Tories so this lockdown and Furlough scheme where Government just gives people cash goes against every fibre of their being.

One thing you can be sure of is the lifting of lockdown measures will not be done too slowly!!!

Also social media said Trump would never get in and Brexit would never happen.

[RadioGAAGAA]

The scientific models are wrong. They don't know the R value.

course they don't know "the R value".

There is no one single R value.

It varies from area to area and hour to hour. It is highly dependent on unpredictable people doing unpredictable things.

It is impossible to know what it is across a country at any given time... and even if you did - it would not (by definition) be an accurate reflection beyond anything but a very limited scope.


Of course, you already know all this as you've studied the matter extensively and have published numerous journal read a few news papers about it.

Well why are they talking about using the R value to determine next steps?

That is an averaged R0 value as determined from a given time period. It cannot be modelled, but can only be evaluated retrospectively. [The effects of different R0 values can be modelled, but they are approximate at best.]

It'll also need much more testing - including sample sets of people that are not symptomatic to gauge R0 values.

I'll leave on these couple of points. Who actually thinks that the UK or Ireland are doing a good job? Especially the UK. Whitty said only 2 days ago that they were supportive of the governments steps and that they were involved in the decisions. "Led by the science"

UK has done an appalling job. ROI aren't quite as bad, but aren't far behind - their inaction regarding air travel in Feb & March were particularly poor - and the mistakes regarding the care homes are obvious to all.

Do you believe that the WHO got the initial response right? They said travel bans don't work! No human to human transmission! If this broke out today in China, what do you think the governments first steps would be? Close borders and restrict flights. If they didn't there'd be uproar.

Nope. The WHO's reluctance to recommend closing down travel is scandalous IMO. The idea that stopping travel doesn't stop the spread of a virus is utterly ludicrous and laced with obvious political considerations.

No-one across the world has got it 100% right. Some places have got much more wrong than right.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Apparently there actually is some rationale on the plane scenario and the way the air conditioning works("laminar airflow" apparently). Some airlines have promised to leave middle aisle seats free. Obviously Michael O'Leary hasn't lol.

Ahh, well, I know where they are coming from, but I'm not convinced.

The air in a cabin is constantly being recycled, 50% fresh air and the other 50% passing through HEPA filters - which should catch the virus. The overall volume within the cabin will either be refreshed or filtered ~20 times per hour.

But, there will be pockets that are not refreshed. Also, the dry cabin makes you more susceptible to getting infections. It also doesn't stop you touching a surface (i.e. seat headrest) a carrier has sneezed on when your embarking/debarking and picking it up that way.

I certainly wouldn't be keen to get on a plane right now.

[imtommygunn]

I wouldn't go near one but it's not quite the same as sitting in a crammed office.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I wouldn't go near one but it's not quite the same as sitting in a crammed office.

A crammed office is definitely worse than an aircraft, but both are "pick your poison" to me.

The Chinese did an investigation to a transmission in a restaurant - and it can be carried as fine droplets on air currents - be they from the door opening or from air-con.

[imtommygunn]

i read a very interesting article the other day which detailed the spread in a particular office. It was a call centre with 82 people on the one floor and 24 got it. 23 sat on one side of the office and 1 on the other. It actually had the desk layouts etc as well.

[RadioGAAGAA]

i read a very interesting article the other day which detailed the spread in a particular office. It was a call centre with 82 people on the one floor and 24 got it. 23 sat on one side of the office and 1 on the other. It actually had the desk layouts etc as well.

Yes, that's right - read that too! [and then forgot about it]

Just highlights how far off going back into a crammed office setting we all are.

You could start the week with 100 cases in hospital across NI (and who knows how many asymptotic outside) and then 2 weeks later easily have 1,000 people needing hospital treatment.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah we are tenatively talking about reopening the office in september again but only allowing a certain number of people to go in per day. I would say even that is optimistic.

Remote working just has to be facilitated where it can be for a long time yet.

[Milltown Row2]

Yeah we are tenatively talking about reopening the office in september again but only allowing a certain number of people to go in per day. I would say even that is optimistic.

Remote working just has to be facilitated where it can be for a long time yet.

September? Christ.

Was out walking the dogs this morning, bumped into two of my clients, elderly 75+, talking about when are we opening up and how can they go to a shop, accept a receipt from a person behind a till but can't be seen in a dentist/opticians/podiatrist and so on?

Those places and ours have always followed strict health and safety measures before this but seem way down the list of places that are going back to work!