China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: imtommygunn on April 28, 2020, 06:25:34 PM
It would also be career suicide you would have thought though? The Tories try to control every message coming out.

No way. The optics of that would make any minister that sacked them unelectable. You'd be into real Donald Trump territory there.



Its also not as if they couldn't head off to a lecturing gig in a medical school or even back to practice.
i usse an speelchekor

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 06:33:13 PM
79 deaths reported on the island today. We are not making the progress on this that we should after 6 weeks.

Indeed - problem is with the crap testing/tracing there probably is very little picture of how people are picking it up.

That google/apple app would be most useful right now (not exactly an exhaustive approach in itself, but a useful start).
i usse an speelchekor

imtommygunn

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 28, 2020, 06:44:07 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on April 28, 2020, 06:25:34 PM
It would also be career suicide you would have thought though? The Tories try to control every message coming out.

No way. The optics of that would make any minister that sacked them unelectable. You'd be into real Donald Trump territory there.



Its also not as if they couldn't head off to a lecturing gig in a medical school or even back to practice.

Yeah not immediately but longer term. I expect they effectively are politicians too though at least with some medical savvy.

Yeah i still don't fully get where people are catching this.

armaghniac

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 28, 2020, 06:46:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 06:33:13 PM
79 deaths reported on the island today. We are not making the progress on this that we should after 6 weeks.

Indeed - problem is with the crap testing/tracing there probably is very little picture of how people are picking it up.

That google/apple app would be most useful right now (not exactly an exhaustive approach in itself, but a useful start).

Testing changed today in the 26 counties, anyone with 1 symptom will now be tested. This may lead to a boost in cases, but it will be a more realistic figure. If that new figure isn't too high and is declining then perhaps you could ease up.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 07:21:55 PM
Testing changed today in the 26 counties, anyone with 1 symptom will now be tested. This may lead to a boost in cases, but it will be a more realistic figure. If that new figure isn't too high and is declining then perhaps you could ease up.

Good. If they can start exhaustive contact tracing along with that, then it might be possible to get an idea of where/how people are getting it.

It would then mean a better targeting of restrictions.
i usse an speelchekor

upmonaghansayswe

Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 07:21:55 PM
Testing changed today in the 26 counties, anyone with 1 symptom will now be tested. This may lead to a boost in cases, but it will be a more realistic figure. If that new figure isn't too high and is declining then perhaps you could ease up.

Not sure if its implicit in your comment but its not anyone. Still people with chronic medical conditions, hospital workers and those who are household contacts of confirmed cases. I think it has been poorly reported today.

upmonaghansayswe

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 28, 2020, 06:46:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 06:33:13 PM
79 deaths reported on the island today. We are not making the progress on this that we should after 6 weeks.

Indeed - problem is with the crap testing/tracing there probably is very little picture of how people are picking it up.

That google/apple app would be most useful right now (not exactly an exhaustive approach in itself, but a useful start).

We have tested 31,179 per million. In Europe, only Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal have a higher rate (not counting Iceland or small states). How is this crap?. Genuinely asking.


RadioGAAGAA

#4282
Quote from: upmonaghansayswe on April 28, 2020, 08:49:07 PM
We have tested 31,179 per million. In Europe, only Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal have a higher rate (not counting Iceland or small states). How is this crap?. Genuinely asking.

Perhaps things have changed, but its my understanding in the ROI you are only tested if you are presenting symptoms (whereas in the UK you essentially have to be on your death bed  ::) ).
If you are then positive, then no testing is done of your family and no attempts are made to test anyone you have been in contact with over the previous two weeks.
[Anyone, step in and correct me if I'm out of date here!]

That almost just testing for testing's sake. There is no direction to it and only a fraction of the benefit of extensive testing is accrued.

[edit: even if I'm wrong on testing family members, its self-explanatory how they got it - so of limited use outside of treating those individuals.]

Even if they took a representative sample of those that are testing positive and then walked back through their lives for the previous 3 weeks and went testing everyone they were in contact with. Then match up positive cases from those tests to how/where they met the carrier*. It then starts to give an understanding of most likely spreading vectors. From which, you have the beginnings of an information base on how to best fine tune the easement of lockdown.

*problem is now, with it so widespread, its hard to be sure if that was the carrier they got the virus from.

i usse an speelchekor

armaghniac

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 28, 2020, 09:51:40 PM
That almost just testing for testing's sake. There is no direction to it and only a fraction of the benefit of extensive testing is accrued.


Well yes and no. If you have Covid19 then your family and contacts are told to isolate themselves and they will get a test if any symptoms show up
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

#4284
2 bean GardaĆ­ doing job well today at Bridgend. Had 2 cars and 1 van pulled in coming from Derry. 3 DL regs. Obviously couldn't prove purpose of journey to Derry and caught on way back. Psni non existent, I've interacted with both forces on border here quite a lot over last 5 weeks and have to say I'm impressed with GardaĆ­, not saying this as anti Psni post, just genuine observation

seafoid

Uk estimate of all excess deatgs due to coronavirus (hospital, home, nursing home) now 46,000

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255183452527374337

The UK is paying for decisions made in March
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-three-uk-sporting-events-may-have-led-coronavirus-death/

The Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool's tie with Atletico Madrid and the Manchester derby all resulted in more coronavirus cases and deaths


Milltown Row2

Quote from: seafoid on April 28, 2020, 10:59:41 PM
Uk estimate of all excess deatgs due to coronavirus (hospital, home, nursing home) now 46,000

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255183452527374337

The UK is paying for decisions made in March
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-three-uk-sporting-events-may-have-led-coronavirus-death/

The Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool's tie with Atletico Madrid and the Manchester derby all resulted in more coronavirus cases and deaths

It's a good thing that there was no Irish at those games or Cheltenham, Leo was on the ball early
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2020, 09:56:57 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 28, 2020, 09:51:40 PM
That almost just testing for testing's sake. There is no direction to it and only a fraction of the benefit of extensive testing is accrued.


Well yes and no. If you have Covid19 then your family and contacts are told to isolate themselves and they will get a test if any symptoms show up

Theoretically under lockdown they *should* almost be doing that (isolation) already.

Its figuring out where and how it jumps between family units that'll be key in the next steps.
i usse an speelchekor

Milltown Row2

Are there deaths being recorded as Covid incorrectly as they haven't tested people properly?
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

armaghniac

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on April 28, 2020, 11:45:59 PM
Are there deaths being recorded as Covid incorrectly as they haven't tested people properly?

No there are tests where the doctor who believes it was Covid although the patient wasn't tested.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B