China Coronavirus

[WT4E]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

So you would be expecting nearly 0.5 million dead in China once it's finished even when only 4000 have died so far?

[seafoid]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

I think the China figures might possibly be manipulated by the Chinese Communist Party. They wasted a lot of time at the beginning . They remind me a bit of Fianna Fail.

https://www.ft.com/content/1783dd06-6288-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

In recent weeks, the Communist party has sought to cast Mr Xi as the only person capable of leading the country through a health crisis that has killed more than 3,000 people in mainland China and infected more than 80,000.

https://www.ft.com/content/1783dd06-6288-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

Video footage circulating online last week appeared to show Wuhan residents shouting from their flats at Sun Chunlan, the vice-premier, who was on a tour demonstrating the success of quarantine measures. "It's fake, it's fake!" residents screamed from their balconies, as the entourage moved between buildings.

https://www.ft.com/content/1783dd06-6288-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

Mr Xi's appearance in the city of about 11m, which is still under a strict quarantine, will allow the Communist party to declare an early victory in the fight against the disease, despite criticism of its handling of the crisis.

There seems to be more of a focus on the optics than anything else.

[Tony Baloney]

Does anyone really believe that less than 4000 have died in China. I'd be unsurprised to find that number missing a zero. That makes it a tenfold increase to 40,000 

[seafoid]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3 

[seafoid]

Does anyone really believe that less than 4000 have died in China. I'd be unsurprised to find that number missing a zero. That makes it a tenfold increase to 40,000 

Some American expert said that for every death there are 800 real cases.
China's numbers just stopped suddenly.

[ned]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

So you would be expecting nearly 0.5 million dead in China once it's finished even when only 4000 have died so far?

Chinese may see that as a result as approximately 10 million die per year there.

[seafoid]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

China had
79932 cases on March 1
81003 cases on March 15

[marty34]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

China had
79932 cases on March 1
81003 cases on March 15

Officially of course  doesn't stack up.

All about the PR.

[Solo_run]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

What are you on about?

[seafoid]

In the twentieth century the world was hit by three influenza pandemics:

1. Spanish Flu, 1918 (H1N1): This is seen as by far the most deadly influenza pandemic in
recorded history (400 years). In a normal flu 90% of the deaths are people older than 65
years. However, 99% of the deaths caused by the Spanish Flu in 1918 were people under
age 65. Some assessments have indicated that its death toll worldwide was as high as 40- 50 million people. However it is unclear as to how much these deaths were actually caused
by the Spanish Flu and how many of them were actually due to other consequential reasons
or as result of several factors.

2. Asian flu, 1957: The global death toll resulted in around 2 million (in the US this meant
an additional 70,000 deaths that year), significantly lower than in 1918. It is also
remarkable that the deaths were this time more amongst elderly persons and infants. The
picture looks more like a normal seasonal flu, but with a much higher infection rate - more
than 25% of the population.

3. Hong Kong flu, 1968: This flu had a similar pattern to the 1957 pandemic, but with
clearly fewer deaths (36,000 in the US)

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/terrifying-data-behind-government-coronavirus-lockdown/

The public reacted with fury last week when the government took much a lighter approach than other countries, allowing people to think that their older friends and relatives were being put at risk.

Britain has now pivoted and moved to a strategy of virus suppression. It's the path the World Health Organisation (WHO) has called for from the outset, and the one which China pioneered and virtually all other developed countries are now following.

[seafoid]

OWC news from Richie Sunak

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/17/chancellor-unleashes-330bn-bailout-rescue-uk-economy-coronavirus/

"Rishi Sunak has unveiled a £350 billion bailout to help keep businesses and households afloat during the coronavirus crisis.

The Chancellor announced £330 billion in Government-backed loans for firms of all sizes so they can keep paying employees' wages – the equivalent of 15 per cent of UK GDP.

There will also be £20 billion in giveaways, including grants of up to £25,000 for small firms, and a full year without business rates for all retail, hospitality and leisure businesses.

Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, said he and the Chancellor were acting "like any wartime government" by doing "whatever it takes to support our economy".

Mortgage lenders will give homeowners payment holidays of up to three months if they have been financially impacted by coronavirus, with help for renters in the pipeline.

Mr Sunak made it clear there would be more to come but stopped short of the help made available in some other countries, such as the suspension of household bills."

[JoG2]

What virus? Seen video footage of Liverpool city centre partying like it was 1999 yesterday. Thousands in Concert Sq, in the pubs and clubs.

[Armamike]

Governments can't trust people to act responsibly.  The south moved quickly after the footage in temple bar last weekend.  The same will happen in the UK. People need to be told what to do, not asked.

[Solo_run]

Governments can't trust people to act responsibly.  The south moved quickly after the footage in temple bar last weekend.  The same will happen in the UK. People need to be told what to do, not asked.

Exactly. It's not that social distancing doesn't work, it's that people wont do it. Went into a shop earlier and there was a sign that says please keep your distance while waiting in the queue. This man is standing there breathing over my shoulder ...I edge forwards and he does the same. Told him to move back. People are just stupid.

People alone cannot be relied upon to stop this spreading. It's why the government will eventually have to take some serious action soon.