China Coronavirus

[larryin89]

What is 0.01 then ? Genuinely confused here .

0.01 is one hundredth

Sound

[RadioGAAGAA]

Sorry perhaps I'm just not getting your figures but 0.1 % to 1% is 0.9 difference , where does the 1000% come in ?

If you have 100 cans of beer and someone else has 50% of the cans of beer you do, they have 50 cans. If they have 100% of the cans you do, they also have 100 cans of beer.


If normal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% - 1 person per one thousand dies of it.
If Covid has a a mortality rate of 1% - 10 people per one thousand die of it.

10 x 100% = Covid is 1000% worse than flu.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Your maths is wrong. Should be 100% and 500% but your point is still valid. Some just won't be told.

Sorry, its not.

100% of 0.1% is still 0.1%

1000% of 0.1% is 1.0%

[RadioGAAGAA]

Will it not kill at least a million? The expert on earlier did a spread sheet excel thingy showing a million deaths relating to the virus in Britain alone!

Do pay attention - I said that may happen if measures are not taken to limit spread - or do I need to break out the crayons and draw simple little diagrams for you?

[RadioGAAGAA]

The wilful ignorance of so many here or the terrible mathematical abilities.

Its a good filter 

Maybe they should use it when deciding who should get a ventilator or not!   [joking!]

[Eamonnca1]

Youse are getting sidetracked here.

The experts in the UK are hoping to keep the deaths below 20,000, that'll be considered a "good outcome."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-nhs-latest-outbreak-pandemic-a9407311.html

[armaghniac]

It's a relatively weak pandemic

-It doesn't strike uniformly across the population
-It is expected to be less lethal than the flu of winter 2017/18 which killed 50,000 people in the UK. And that was just the flu.

The real thing would kill more than 10,000 people in the Republic and hospitalise 120,000.

So there is a a lot of unnecessary panic.

Who expects it to kill less than 50,000 in the UK? Boris Johnson?
It is more infectious than flu typically is, and it will kill 0.5% of people even if they receive treatment. Assume half the people get it, that's 180,000. Since that number haven't a hope of  receiving treatment the death rate would  be like half a million.

Will it not kill at least a million? The expert on earlier did a spread sheet excel thingy showing a million deaths relating to the virus in Britain alone!

A million is probably at the upper end of the range.
There won't be a million now that people are beginning to cop on.

Youse are getting sidetracked here.

The experts in the UK are hoping to keep the deaths below 20,000, that'll be considered a "good outcome."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-nhs-latest-outbreak-pandemic-a9407311.html

20,000 would be  good work. However in the video on that page he takes about 1 death per 1000 cases, i.e. 0.1% death rate.
This has not been the experience elsewhere. I doubt the WHO would expect much less  than 0.4%. 

[seafoid]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

[Eamonnca1]

According to this:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-cannot-be-stopped-but-can-be-slowed-says-varadkar-1.4197969

Ireland's (the 26 only) best case scenario is 25% of people infected with a 1% death rate. I make that 12,000 dead.

Worst case scenario: 75% of people infected with a 3% death rate. I make that 108,000 dead.

People need to see these numbers if they're going to take this seriously.

[Milltown Row2]

Will it not kill at least a million? The expert on earlier did a spread sheet excel thingy showing a million deaths relating to the virus in Britain alone!

Do pay attention - I said that may happen if measures are not taken to limit spread - or do I need to break out the crayons and draw simple little diagrams for you?

What you really need to do is stop talking shite, what will happen, will happen,  the doomsday scenario may happen and the numbers you predict might not.

One things for sure, some people thrive on hyperbole and become experts.  This is a brand new virus that no one can/could predict with any real certainty, there was going to be a new pandemic that would globally hit us, we thought it would be swine/bird/SARS, luckily they didn't, this could, but for me anyways this fall way short of yearly starvation rates possibly global flu rates currently. Granted we won't know for a year.

As for how this virus was started, serious questions need to be asked and assurances that measures need fixed

[Rossfan]

69 new cases in the 26 today and 10 in the 6.
Emergency Legislation to be rushed through the Oireachtas Thursday.

[larryin89]

Sorry perhaps I'm just not getting your figures but 0.1 % to 1% is 0.9 difference , where does the 1000% come in ?

If you have 100 cans of beer and someone else has 50% of the cans of beer you do, they have 50 cans. If they have 100% of the cans you do, they also have 100 cans of beer.


If normal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% - 1 person per one thousand dies of it.
If Covid has a a mortality rate of 1% - 10 people per one thousand die of it.

10 x 100% = Covid is 1000% worse than flu.

Still doesn't make sense to me , 0.1 is 1/10 of 1% . Where  does this 1000% comes from ?

If Tom the contracts manger gets 100k per year , the foreman Pat gets 70.1% of that , and jack the ganger gets only 70% of what Tom gets .

How is pat on 1000% more than jack with his 0.1 % .

Like I said I left school after junior cert and am an aul construction worker so I'm obviously wrong but I can't get my head around it at all.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Will it not kill at least a million? The expert on earlier did a spread sheet excel thingy showing a million deaths relating to the virus in Britain alone!

Do pay attention - I said that may happen if measures are not taken to limit spread - or do I need to break out the crayons and draw simple little diagrams for you?

What you really need to do is stop talking shite, what will happen, will happen,  the doomsday scenario may happen and the numbers you predict might not.

No, what will happen will greatly depend on how much diligence people pay to isolation and separation. If you'd bother to pay attention you might realise that.

but for me anyways this fall way short of yearly starvation rates possibly global flu rates currently. Granted we won't know for a year.

What special kind of thick are you?

When people quote mortality rates, that is per head of population. When this spreads across the world, and it will, its far too large to contain now - those higher mortality rates will be translated into higher global death rates.

As for how this virus was started, serious questions need to be asked and assurances that measures need fixed

Like some poor wee f**ker in China struggling to put food on the table for their family will care about your questions and what you think.

A different flavour of coronavirus will come back, we've had 3 within 20 years. It'll only be a matter of time to the next one - question is can be be squashed while still local to the index patient.

[larryin89]

I think I get it now lol. Move on

[RadioGAAGAA]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.