China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

It's a relatively weak pandemic

-It doesn't strike uniformly across the population
-It is expected to be less lethal than the flu of winter 2017/18 which killed 50,000 people in the UK. And that was just the flu.

The real thing would kill more than 10,000 people in the Republic and hospitalise 120,000.

So there is a a lot of unnecessary panic.

You are all at sea with that one.

If there is not more serious measures taken here (unlike that flu you reference which I cannot recall a lockdown for), you could be looking at over 20 times 50,000 dead before this is over.

Three months in 50 dead, in next 9 months a million people will die?

That's some number

[Maroon Manc]

I'm fairly sure I heard Peter Valance say the seasonal flu tends to kill 8,000 people a year.

[five points]

Some of the comments I have seen seem designed to push Peter Weir and Arlene away from closing the schools. Repeated references to an "All-Island" approach or references to what is being done in the South are likely to annoy Unionists.

Even today was this comment

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-51923280
Kieran O'Neill, chairman of the Catholic Principals' Association, called on Peter Weir to "show leadership in line with the department of education in the Republic of Ireland and close all schools with immediate effect".

The message should be that closing the schools is the right thing to do, whether or not the schools in GB or the south are closed.

I'm not even sure the schools in the Republic would be closed at all were it not for the convenient timing of St Patrick's Day and the Easter holidays in a few weeks time.

[Rossfan]

Plenty of sensibleness in the 26 today thank God.

If the government didn't close the pubs there would be plenty in it!

Point of order .... Government advised pubs to close.
They've taken that advice.
Ye'd better all prepare for a long haul as Professir Syferus has told us on Stolensheep that it won't be going away for a long time.

[OgraAnDun]

Plenty of sensibleness in the 26 today thank God.

If the government didn't close the pubs there would be plenty in it!

Point of order .... Government advised pubs to close.
They've taken that advice.
Ye'd better all prepare for a long haul as Professir Syferus has told us on Stolensheep that it won't be going away for a long time.

The Covid-19 response team at Imperial College London concur.

[larryin89]

Plenty of sensibleness in the 26 today thank God.

If the government didn't close the pubs there would be plenty in it!

Point of order .... Government advised pubs to close.
They've taken that advice.
Ye'd better all prepare for a long haul as Professir Syferus has told us on Stolensheep that it won't be going away for a long time.

He could very well be right . I don't even believe society will ever be the same again in our lifetime . Ireland especially just can't cope with this , what percentage of them pubs do you think will ever open again for example .

[five points]

I'm not even sure the schools in the Republic would be closed at all were it not for the convenient timing of St Patrick's Day and the Easter holidays in a few weeks time.

Why?

Because they have the luxury of extending it until 20 April if the crisis drags on, or recouping days in the second half of the Easter holidays if it doesn't.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Three months in 50 dead, in next 9 months a million people will die?

That's some number

You've long demonstrated an inability to wrap your head around this. You obviously don't understand exponential growth either.

With UK numbers completely f**ked due to the lack of widespread testing, I'm going to use studies elsewhere that puts the death rate about 5%[1].

The current UK infection rate is around 30% per day - it may be higher, but its definitely at least around 30%.

Just for yourself to see
Open up an excel sheet,
In cell A1, stick down 1, in cell A2, enter "=A1+1"
In cell B1, stick down 1500 [official number of infected], in cell B2 enter "=B1*1.3".
In cell C1 enter "=B1*0.05", in cell C2 enter "=B2*0.05"

Select all of row2, then drag/copy it down about 60 rows.

At the current rate, if everyone did nothing about it, essentially the entire country would have the virus in just over 40 days. 5% of that is 3.5 million dead within 2 months. With 20% of the infected requiring acute care, that would be 14 million people looking into hospital over the next ~40 days. Obviously the system would completely collapse. Then the death rate approaches that of Italy, which is >15%... so that 3.5 million could become 10 million.

This is serious shit. Isolation and breaking of social contact is critical in stopping the above coming true. Stupid c***ts like you with sarcy responses to things they clearly don't understand doesn't help the message of severity get across to folks that also don't know better but might listen to those that do.


[1]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext


Also of use for keeping track of numbers:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[RadioGAAGAA]

Ye'd better all prepare for a long haul as Professir Syferus has told us on Stolensheep that it won't be going away for a long time.

He may be a grade A dick, but in this case he's not wrong.

[five points]

I'm not even sure the schools in the Republic would be closed at all were it not for the convenient timing of St Patrick's Day and the Easter holidays in a few weeks time.

Why?

Because they have the luxury of extending it until 20 April if the crisis drags on, or recouping days in the second half of the Easter holidays if it doesn't.

No, what makes you unsure they wouldn't have done it?

Because in my kids school it was all systems go until shortly before the announcement last Thursday -  activities, meetings, trips etc.

But as I say, I'm unsure.

[Itchy]

Best thing that can happen is the internet goes into a 1 month lock down. The hysterical b%llox talk will kill more stupids than the virus itself.

How many anxious filled teens & children are we creating, the pharmaceutical industry is alive and well.

Yes it's absolutely mental at the minute

Is it hysteria to describe what's happening in Italy ? Have you read any of the articles or watched the videos of doctors who are actually there on the frontline , do you know that yesterday they have proposed they will have to refuse treatment for the over 80s ?

Yes it's scary, yes it's fu ck img awful but it's happening . And the worst has not hit by a long shot .

It's a relatively weak pandemic

-It doesn't strike uniformly across the population
-It is expected to be less lethal than the flu of winter 2017/18 which killed 50,000 people in the UK. And that was just the flu.

The real thing would kill more than 10,000 people in the Republic and hospitalise 120,000.

So there is a a lot of unnecessary panic.

Relatively weak? Relative to what?

Top level stats. Mortality between maybe 0 5% and 6% and twice as contagious as the flu. Flu has a vaccine and this does not. So what are you talking about?

I actually cannot  believe you, who appears to be well read, would write such nonsense.

[five points]

I'm not even sure the schools in the Republic would be closed at all were it not for the convenient timing of St Patrick's Day and the Easter holidays in a few weeks time.

Why?

Because they have the luxury of extending it until 20 April if the crisis drags on, or recouping days in the second half of the Easter holidays if it doesn't.

No, what makes you unsure they wouldn't have done it?

Because in my kids school it was all systems go until shortly before the announcement last Thursday -  activities, meetings, trips etc.

But as I say, I'm unsure.

How are you drawing any reference from that?

How what? My kids school, which is a very, very well organised one, gave no impression that they were even considering closing until the government sprung it on them.

[Captain Obvious]

Best thing that can happen is the internet goes into a 1 month lock down. The hysterical b%llox talk will kill more stupids than the virus itself.

How many anxious filled teens & children are we creating, the pharmaceutical industry is alive and well.

Yes it's absolutely mental at the minute

Is it hysteria to describe what's happening in Italy ? Have you read any of the articles or watched the videos of doctors who are actually there on the frontline , do you know that yesterday they have proposed they will have to refuse treatment for the over 80s ?

Yes it's scary, yes it's fu ck img awful but it's happening . And the worst has not hit by a long shot .

It's a relatively weak pandemic

-It doesn't strike uniformly across the population
-It is expected to be less lethal than the flu of winter 2017/18 which killed 50,000 people in the UK. And that was just the flu.

The real thing would kill more than 10,000 people in the Republic and hospitalise 120,000.

So there is a a lot of unnecessary panic.

Relatively weak? Relative to what?

Top level stats. Mortality between maybe 0 5% and 6% and twice as contagious as the flu. Flu has a vaccine and this does not. So what are you talking about?

I actually cannot  believe you, who appears to be well read, would write such nonsense.

seafóid appeared to be well read. 

[five points]

Schools didn't know they were closing until the gov closed them. Obviously they weren't doing anything different.
Your original point suggested that the schools may not have been closed (by the gov) only for St Patrick's & Easter being so close.
I'm asking you what makes you think that? Is there anything to suggest that is the case, outside of your head?

Schools not knowing they were closing is not the answer to that btw.

Because there would have been stronger objections from State exam students and teachers had they shut for example a fortnight after Easter, with exam preparation in full swing. 

[seafoid]

Best thing that can happen is the internet goes into a 1 month lock down. The hysterical b%llox talk will kill more stupids than the virus itself.

How many anxious filled teens & children are we creating, the pharmaceutical industry is alive and well.

Yes it's absolutely mental at the minute

Is it hysteria to describe what's happening in Italy ? Have you read any of the articles or watched the videos of doctors who are actually there on the frontline , do you know that yesterday they have proposed they will have to refuse treatment for the over 80s ?

Yes it's scary, yes it's fu ck img awful but it's happening . And the worst has not hit by a long shot .

It's a relatively weak pandemic

-It doesn't strike uniformly across the population
-It is expected to be less lethal than the flu of winter 2017/18 which killed 50,000 people in the UK. And that was just the flu.

The real thing would kill more than 10,000 people in the Republic and hospitalise 120,000.

So there is a a lot of unnecessary panic.

Relatively weak? Relative to what?

Top level stats. Mortality between maybe 0 5% and 6% and twice as contagious as the flu. Flu has a vaccine and this does not. So what are you talking about?

I actually cannot  believe you, who appears to be well read, would write such nonsense.

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.