China Coronavirus

[trailer]

Will closing schools at this stage actually be counter productive? The peak is 12 -14 weeks away. That's a long time to be working from home / off work. If you work in a role that you can' t work from home (healthcare, retail etc) what happens? Who's looking after those children?
I get is that it's about stopping the spread but a lot of families are going to be put under an almighty strain.

[LeoMc]

Not meant in any way to provoke, but something I would be interested in the answers to with regards to infections.

The percentage of smokers affected by this v non smokers.

From a few visits to Italy, I've never been to China - they are huge smokers. Could this be a factor in the infection rates?

Not sure if it is a factor in infection rates but it is a factor in survival rates. The majority of fatalities in China were male and it is being put down to the huge disparity in smoking rates, with >50% of men and <5% of women there being smokers.

[Solo_run]

Not meant in any way to provoke, but something I would be interested in the answers to with regards to infections.

The percentage of smokers affected by this v non smokers.

From a few visits to Italy, I've never been to China - they are huge smokers. Could this be a factor in the infection rates?

It is a respiratory illness, if it is compromised in any way then you are increasing the risk of how bad the infection will be.

[LeoMc]

Just for the craic, now we have agreed that it is much worse than the flu because the mortality rates are about 35 times higher (3.5% v .1%) are there any estimates of what the mortality rate would be like for the flu if a large % of the population did not get seasonal shots?

[Solo_run]

Just for the craic, now we have agreed that it is much worse than the flu because the mortality rates are about 35 times higher (3.5% v .1%) are there any estimates of what the mortality rate would be like for the flu if a large % of the population did not get seasonal shots?

Mortality rates would be based on confirmed cases only and you aren't going to get a true mortality rate. I think they are saying it is around 2% but that depends.

[Solo_run]

On a side note I find it interesting that there are many companies in UK that are navigating around UK government advice.

[screenexile]

Just for the craic, now we have agreed that it is much worse than the flu because the mortality rates are about 35 times higher (3.5% v .1%) are there any estimates of what the mortality rate would be like for the flu if a large % of the population did not get seasonal shots?

Mortality rates would be based on confirmed cases only and you aren't going to get a true mortality rate. I think they are saying it is around 2% but that depends.

Yeah 3.5% is definitely not agreed!!

[LeoMc]

Just for the craic, now we have agreed that it is much worse than the flu because the mortality rates are about 35 times higher (3.5% v .1%) are there any estimates of what the mortality rate would be like for the flu if a large % of the population did not get seasonal shots?

Mortality rates would be based on confirmed cases only and you aren't going to get a true mortality rate. I think they are saying it is around 2% but that depends.

I know it is early days and I have seen everything from 1 to 5% so i was going for the middle ground. My question was more around flu data if we did not have vaccines and the resultant herd immunity

[Solo_run]

Just for the craic, now we have agreed that it is much worse than the flu because the mortality rates are about 35 times higher (3.5% v .1%) are there any estimates of what the mortality rate would be like for the flu if a large % of the population did not get seasonal shots?

Mortality rates would be based on confirmed cases only and you aren't going to get a true mortality rate. I think they are saying it is around 2% but that depends.

I know it is early days and I have seen everything from 1 to 5% so i was going for the middle ground. My question was more around flu data if we did not have vaccines and the resultant herd immunity

I see where you are coming from. The death toll for flu would likely be a lot higher if there wasn't a vaccine. However C19 would kill more

[seafoid]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1238110096334479364

[yellowcard]

Italy in lockdown, Spain on the verge of lockdown a health crises the likes of which we have not seen in our lifetimes and Stevie Nolan still manages to use the virus to stir up a sectarian debate for his own ratings. A self publicist of the highest order. 

[Taylor]

No one is really underestimating it, regardless of what AFM and others may think, but the reality is we can only deal with the numbers we have and how responsible we can be, the figures for each country will be different for a lot of reasons, some i outlined earlier, the doubling effect of known cases is true, and in Italy there may be as many with it but self isolating and they are not on the figures also.

It's too hard to define, and its a day by day or even an hour by hour thing. The panic buyers are loading up and we haven't hit our peak yet!! whats going to happen when suppliers can't get the stock  in due to their own health and safety procedures? the panic buyers will have feck all left and left nothing for everyone else!!

14 weeks is a long time away for it to be peaking don't you think? And whats the difference between the scientists in Denmark and the UK ?

All my appointments are dropping off and that's fine, Id rather they didn't come in and see me and possibly affect me or my co workers, as a business we'll probably close for a couple of weeks soon enough, the building above me is working less half capacity now, from nearly 600 employees to 240 will be in work from Monday.

Apart from the 100,000+ people who have attended Cheltenham this week off course 

[macdanger2]

Hospital EDs much quieter the last week or so, just shows that there are loads of people who go to the ED at the drop of a hat and clog it up for emergencies

[GalwayBayBoy]

Hospital EDs much quieter the last week or so, just shows that there are loads of people who go to the ED at the drop of a hat and clog it up for emergencies

Been told this myself by people I know working in the HSE. Trollies are often full because so many present themselves for very little reason. Now suddenly they can't stay far enough away from the hospitals.

[armaghniac]

I'm leaving it to the globally recognised and award-winning scientists and medical professionals to decide on the best course of action. Apologies to all social media and barstool experts.

Isn't that a bit sexist? Couldn't the PhD student have been female?