Tyrone v Dublin - The return of the Jedi

[Jinxy]

According to the latest RTE promo, Tyrone represent the forces of darkness.

https://twitter.com/RTEsport/status/901726443171958784

[tonto1888]

Great post Sod. Enjoyed reading that. Wait and see O'Gara coming on and getting 1-2 in a 2 point Dublin win though

[Mayo4Sam14]

Any word on changes to either team?

[stew]

I can't call Dublin v Tyrone but I will anyway. I think Tyrone will win by one point.

My feeling is that Dublin are being overrated going into this one.

For me, Dublin are an easier team to read in terms of form than Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone because they can sustain a much longer peak due to having far greater squad depth than anybody else and also due to geographical advantages - ie. none of their players live outside Dublin, which is a small county anyway.

I believe Dublin have not been at the level of previous years and struggled through much of the league, ending up losing the final to Kerry, whereas last year they drove a coach and horses through a much stronger Kerry team in the final.

The championship has taught us nothing about Dublin yet.

People might argue that it has taught us nothing about Tyrone, but it has - they are putting away teams with absolute ease, whereas they weren't in previous years.

There is no head to head championship form guide to go on.

But when two full strength or near full strength teams really go at each other in the league, it is a guide. Mayo and Kerry proves that. Mayo and Dublin proves that. Dublin and Kerry proves that. Dublin and Tyrone have gone at each other full throttle on five occasions since Jim Gavin took over. One point separates them on aggregate. These games weren't played in the muck on a provincial pitch - four were in Croke Park, with the other one on a perfect pitch in Omagh in glorious April sunshine. And at least three were with considerably inferior Tyrone teams than will line out tomorrow.

Only a fool would disregard those results.

Not only have this Dublin team never hammered Kerry in the championship but they haven't hammered any team in an All-Ireland semi-final or final in this decade.

In every single semi-final or final they have played bar one (Kerry 2015), the opposition was in a potentially winning position at a key stage of the second half.

Dublin have conceded a glut of goals in semi-finals, and tend to concede gluts of scores in a short space of time in key matches. 2-4 v Kerry last year, 1-4 v Mayo in 2015, 3-6 to 0-3 in less than 20 minutes in 2014, three goals in 14 minutes against Kerry in 2013, 0-9 to 0-1 against Mayo in 18 minutes in 2012.

If they do anything like that today, they're toast.

Dublin's strength is obviously their collective, but when I look through the team on an individual basis, it looks weaker than it did in 2013 to 2015.

Lowndes, O'Callaghan, Rock, Small, these players can be got at.

For me some of the older hands aren't as good as they were.

Kilkenny and Fenton are Dublin's two key attacking men. I expect Tyrone to be gunning for them with a vengeance from before the first whistle.

Lowndes is there to track Tiernan McCann. Dublin are haunted by the memory of Ryan McHugh running riot in 2014. But if I was Jim Gavin, I'd stick Philly McMahon on McCann.

Tyrone have plan A and plan A. The thing is that that plan A is very, very difficult to negate, as those teams who fell victim to peak Donegal found out, and Tyrone end up playing Plan A the way they like while their opponent plays in a way they aren't used to. Tactics in Gaelic football are still rudimentary enough in world sporting terms and teams often don't have a great ability to adapt if taken out of their tactical comfort zone. Mayo too Kerry out of theirs and Kerry had no answer.

Dublin played a much more defensive structure in 2011 against Donegal, basically keeping six defenders back at all times.

That formation stopped Donegal from scoring goals (though McFadden should have got one), but Dublin found it terribly difficult to break down and thus we got a dirge.

I expect Dublin's approach will be a sort of half way house between the cautious approach of 2011 and the gung ho approach of 2014.

The jury is out on whether Tyrone are better than Donegal 2012 who had the system down to a ridiculously fine art, but they are better than Donegal 2011.

The first 15 minutes will set the tone. If one team gets significantly ahead, ie. 4 to 5 points, the expected pattern could go out the window. But remember Donegal were 5 behind Dublin in 2014 and stuck firm to their plan and prevailed. If neither does, as I expect, it will probably turn into a dogfight with maybe somewhere in the region of 12-14 points being a winning total.

Basically, Tyrone will try to unsettle Dublin so much that Dublin's normal attacking game, their support play and angles of running break down.

Getting through such a defence is a desperate mental grind. I'd be very doubtful if Con O'Callaghan and Dean Rock have the experience in the case of the former and the ability in the case of the latter to do it.

The other alternative is to kick points from distance as Flynn and Connolly did in 2014. But Flynn won't be starting, and even if Connolly does, there are questions about his readiness.

I don't think anybody else on the Dublin team has the ability to kick those sort of points from long distance. And even if they do, the radar can only last for so long. Those Flynn and Connolly points dried up beyond 30 minutes in 2014.

So Dublin will be relying on Andrews and Mannion close to goal, Kilkenny and Fenton to create and McCarthy and McCaffrey to try and make runs which lose defenders.

Peak Bernard Brogan was brilliant at sticking to his task against that kind of defence. But he's no longer peak Bernard Brogan.

McManamon will have a big role off the bench. O'Gara will I expect be a disaster if he sees game time. I just can't see him making any headway at all.

At the back I have a hunch that Cian O'Sullivan is playing at a level below his best. Possibly Philly McMahon too.

That isn't to say there aren't doubts surrounding some Tyrone players. Aidan McCrory and Conall McCann are two. And I'd have doubts whether Sean Cavanagh is till up to it and how Mark Bradley's lack of height and physical strength could be exposed, although he's a beautiful footballer.

What Tyrone might be lacking today is a Jason Doherty type, an outlet ball.

If you have that, you effectively double your attacking options - more than double them in fact - you can go long or you can use the running game and the opposition can't focus on or the other.

Doherty coming into form has probably been the primary reason for Mayo's resurgence.

Mark Bradley is a sort of outlet but he generally plays too close to goal to be a real one. Maybe he might come deeper today?

Tyrone to win 1-11 to 0-13, but I've no confidence in that prediction. This is anybody's game and a replay is a distinct possibility.

Just make sure you are there to hand out the participation trophies to the Tyrone players after they get stuffed, no better man for the job than  our sidley )

[Mayo4Sam14]

No changes on the Dublin team

[Mayo4Sam14]

No changes on the Tyrone team

[DUBSFORSAM1]

I can't call Dublin v Tyrone but I will anyway. I think Tyrone will win by one point.

My feeling is that Dublin are being overrated going into this one.

For me, Dublin are an easier team to read in terms of form than Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone because they can sustain a much longer peak due to having far greater squad depth than anybody else and also due to geographical advantages - ie. none of their players live outside Dublin, which is a small county anyway.

I believe Dublin have not been at the level of previous years and struggled through much of the league, ending up losing the final to Kerry, whereas last year they drove a coach and horses through a much stronger Kerry team in the final.

The championship has taught us nothing about Dublin yet.

People might argue that it has taught us nothing about Tyrone, but it has - they are putting away teams with absolute ease, whereas they weren't in previous years.

There is no head to head championship form guide to go on.

But when two full strength or near full strength teams really go at each other in the league, it is a guide. Mayo and Kerry proves that. Mayo and Dublin proves that. Dublin and Kerry proves that. Dublin and Tyrone have gone at each other full throttle on five occasions since Jim Gavin took over. One point separates them on aggregate. These games weren't played in the muck on a provincial pitch - four were in Croke Park, with the other one on a perfect pitch in Omagh in glorious April sunshine. And at least three were with considerably inferior Tyrone teams than will line out tomorrow.

Only a fool would disregard those results.

Not only have this Dublin team never hammered Kerry in the championship but they haven't hammered any team in an All-Ireland semi-final or final in this decade.

In every single semi-final or final they have played bar one (Kerry 2015), the opposition was in a potentially winning position at a key stage of the second half.

Dublin have conceded a glut of goals in semi-finals, and tend to concede gluts of scores in a short space of time in key matches. 2-4 v Kerry last year, 1-4 v Mayo in 2015, 3-6 to 0-3 in less than 20 minutes in 2014, three goals in 14 minutes against Kerry in 2013, 0-9 to 0-1 against Mayo in 18 minutes in 2012.

If they do anything like that today, they're toast.

Dublin's strength is obviously their collective, but when I look through the team on an individual basis, it looks weaker than it did in 2013 to 2015.

Lowndes, O'Callaghan, Rock, Small, these players can be got at.

For me some of the older hands aren't as good as they were.

Kilkenny and Fenton are Dublin's two key attacking men. I expect Tyrone to be gunning for them with a vengeance from before the first whistle.

Lowndes is there to track Tiernan McCann. Dublin are haunted by the memory of Ryan McHugh running riot in 2014. But if I was Jim Gavin, I'd stick Philly McMahon on McCann.

Tyrone have plan A and plan A. The thing is that that plan A is very, very difficult to negate, as those teams who fell victim to peak Donegal found out, and Tyrone end up playing Plan A the way they like while their opponent plays in a way they aren't used to. Tactics in Gaelic football are still rudimentary enough in world sporting terms and teams often don't have a great ability to adapt if taken out of their tactical comfort zone. Mayo too Kerry out of theirs and Kerry had no answer.

Dublin played a much more defensive structure in 2011 against Donegal, basically keeping six defenders back at all times.

That formation stopped Donegal from scoring goals (though McFadden should have got one), but Dublin found it terribly difficult to break down and thus we got a dirge.

I expect Dublin's approach will be a sort of half way house between the cautious approach of 2011 and the gung ho approach of 2014.

The jury is out on whether Tyrone are better than Donegal 2012 who had the system down to a ridiculously fine art, but they are better than Donegal 2011.

The first 15 minutes will set the tone. If one team gets significantly ahead, ie. 4 to 5 points, the expected pattern could go out the window. But remember Donegal were 5 behind Dublin in 2014 and stuck firm to their plan and prevailed. If neither does, as I expect, it will probably turn into a dogfight with maybe somewhere in the region of 12-14 points being a winning total.

Basically, Tyrone will try to unsettle Dublin so much that Dublin's normal attacking game, their support play and angles of running break down.

Getting through such a defence is a desperate mental grind. I'd be very doubtful if Con O'Callaghan and Dean Rock have the experience in the case of the former and the ability in the case of the latter to do it.

The other alternative is to kick points from distance as Flynn and Connolly did in 2014. But Flynn won't be starting, and even if Connolly does, there are questions about his readiness.

I don't think anybody else on the Dublin team has the ability to kick those sort of points from long distance. And even if they do, the radar can only last for so long. Those Flynn and Connolly points dried up beyond 30 minutes in 2014.

So Dublin will be relying on Andrews and Mannion close to goal, Kilkenny and Fenton to create and McCarthy and McCaffrey to try and make runs which lose defenders.

Peak Bernard Brogan was brilliant at sticking to his task against that kind of defence. But he's no longer peak Bernard Brogan.

McManamon will have a big role off the bench. O'Gara will I expect be a disaster if he sees game time. I just can't see him making any headway at all.

At the back I have a hunch that Cian O'Sullivan is playing at a level below his best. Possibly Philly McMahon too.

That isn't to say there aren't doubts surrounding some Tyrone players. Aidan McCrory and Conall McCann are two. And I'd have doubts whether Sean Cavanagh is till up to it and how Mark Bradley's lack of height and physical strength could be exposed, although he's a beautiful footballer.

What Tyrone might be lacking today is a Jason Doherty type, an outlet ball.

If you have that, you effectively double your attacking options - more than double them in fact - you can go long or you can use the running game and the opposition can't focus on or the other.

Doherty coming into form has probably been the primary reason for Mayo's resurgence.

Mark Bradley is a sort of outlet but he generally plays too close to goal to be a real one. Maybe he might come deeper today?

Tyrone to win 1-11 to 0-13, but I've no confidence in that prediction. This is anybody's game and a replay is a distinct possibility.

When have Tyrone last beat a top team though in the championship to show that they are likely to beat Dublin?

[Zulu]

No changes on the Dublin team

Scully in Lowndes according to sky.

[imtommygunn]

Hmm. This may not end up as tight as people think. Big test for tyrone now.

[Jinxy]

Tactical injury breather here for Tyrone.

[The Trap]

This is going to be a hammering

[armaghniac]

Dublin picking off scores, even if there is decent defensive work. Hard to see Tyrone getting a similar number of scores.

[Mayo4Sam14]

Ah lads just give them the 3 in a row therell be no stopping these dubs

[smelmoth]

Fairly dull affair.

Dublin doing the right thing with width but still resorting to a bit of the lateral zero risk play. Tyrone suck the life out of the game and the stadium atmosphere

[punt kick]

Tyrone got to a semi final playing no one. How it is showing now.