The Many Faces of US Politics...

[omaghjoe]

Okay, sorry for the mishap with the last one, I've fixed it below, and the latest odds are at the bottom:

Delegate count:
Buttigieg 22
Sanders 21
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
Biden 6
Bloomberg 0

Betting odds for 2020 winner:

Trump 8/13
Sanders 4/1
Bloomberg 9/1
Biden 20/1

Bloomberg took a hiding last night. He was like a duck out of water. Warren obliterated him. Will be interesting to see how that affects the polling numbers over the next few days, and if his high burn rate can take the bad look off it. I just wish he'd get out of the race and put his money into something useful like flipping the 4 senate seats we're going to need.

Odds update:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 7/2 (3.5/1)
Bloomberg: 8/1
Biden: 22/1

Bernie's odds moving in the right direction. Biden, not so much.

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 1/1
Bloomberg: 4/1
Buttigieg:8/1
Biden: 9/1

Update:
Delegate count:
Sanders 31
Buttigieg 22
Warren 8
Biden 8
Klobuchar 7
Bloomberg 0

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 3/1
Bloomberg: 10/1
Biden: 25/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 5/6
Bloomberg: 4/1
Buttigieg:11/1
Biden: 11/1

Interesting that Chrome still thinks "Buttigieg" is a typo.

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 29/10 (2.9/1)
Bloomberg: 10/1
Biden: 28/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 4/5
Bloomberg: 4/1
Biden: 10/1
Buttigieg:12/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 3/1
Bloomberg: 12/1
Biden: 12/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 10/11
Biden: 4/1
Bloomberg: 11/2
Buttigieg:20/1

Bloomberg and Buttigeig getting it tight.

Bernie's odds are slipping slightly in the general election, but he's still the favourite to get the nomination.

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 10/3 (3.3/1)
Biden: 9/1
Bloomberg: 12/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 10/11
Biden: 13/4
Bloomberg: 6/1
Buttigieg:20/1

This stock market crash might throw a spanner in the works. It was this kind of October surprise that worked in Obama's favor in 2008 when "the fundamentals of our economy [were] strong" until they weren't. Trump might cruise to reelection if the economy stays strong, but the coronavirus could change all that.

Get in there Bernie!

Delegate count:
Sanders: 58
Biden: 50
Buttigeig: 26 (I wonder what happens to delegates after a candidate pulls out)
Warren: 8
Klobuchar: 7

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/6
Sanders: 3/1
Biden: 13/2 (6.5/1)
Bloomberg: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 1/1
Biden: 5/2
Bloomberg: 7/1
Hillary Clinton(!): 33/1

This is the first we've seen Trump's odds moving in a while. Could be the coronavirus effect. Damned if I know why they're showing odds for Hillary instead of the likes of Warren or Klobuchar who are actually in the race.

Delegate count:
Biden 664
Sanders 573

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/5
Biden: 13/8 (1.6/1)
Sanders: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/7
Sanders: 9/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 10/11
Biden: 6/4
Sanders: 18/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/8
Sanders: 9/1

Trump getting it tight. Looking good for Biden if these odds keep moving the way they are. If he puts Warren on his ticket as VP, that should pick up enough Bernie supporters in November. This could be the light at the end of the tunnel.

Delegate count:
Biden 664
Sanders 573

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/5
Biden: 13/8 (1.6/1)
Sanders: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/7
Sanders: 9/1

Delegate count:
Biden 857
Sanders 709

2020 winner:
Trump: 10/11 (1/1.1)
Biden: 13/10 (1.3/1)
Sanders: No longer in the top 4

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/14
Sanders: 40/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 1/1
Biden: 15/13
Sanders: 50/1
Deval Patrick: 50/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/16
Sanders: 33/1

The trend is unmistakable.

2020 winner:
Trump: 11/10
Biden: 11/10
Sanders: 33/1
Deval Patrick: 33/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/12
Sanders: 25/1

Game over for Trump, it seems. Although it's a long way to November, but I'm not sure how he can come back from this. He can't lie or spin his way out of this. Not even Fox News can help him when the dead start piling up.

From what I saw of the debate it looked like Bernie was knocking it out of the park while Joe was wandering off into the weeds.  Still, Bernie seems to be getting it tight now.

2020 winner:
Trump: 11/10
Biden: 11/10
Mike Pence: 33/1
Sanders: 40/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/12
Sanders: 40/1

Funny old game.

2020 winner:
Trump: 1/1
Biden: 11/10

WTF is the matter with people?

2020 winner:
Trump: 10/11
Biden: 5/4

Seems like Trump's lash-out-at-the-media-and-shoot-the-messenger strategy is paying off.

But if Biden does get in somehow, I could see him serving one term and then someone like Newsom having a go.

I wouldn't write Biden off yet. It's a long way to November and a lot of dead bodies are going to be piled up between now and then thanks to Donald. A lot will depend on how successful he is in shifting blame away from himself. He'll take credit for anything that goes right and deflect blame for anything that goes wrong, which will play well with the religious crowd who are used to doing that sort of thing with God. I don't know if it'll be enough with swing voters though.

Well well well. Trump starting to get it tight again. Maybe his supporters are dropping dead with the virus.

2020 winner:
Trump 1/1
Biden 5/4

Biden will be well f**ked then if he wont even be voting for himself. At least he should get Trump's vote tho.

[screenexile]

Pence thinks Flynn maybe lied unintentionally now . . . you couldn't make this shit up!!

[johnnycool]

Pence thinks Flynn maybe lied unintentionally now . . . you couldn't make this shit up!!

Now that didn't happen.

[Gabriel_Hurl]

Big move by Joe

[screenexile]

He has to do it, it's the kind of move you make if you're not guilty,to do otherwise would only bring more suspicion!

[whitey]

Big move by Joe

He got well grilled by Mika this morning by all accounts

Personally I think it's BS

[thejuice]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.204569/gov.uscourts.dcd.204569.29.7.pdf

Interesting reading. Lots of redactions of course, including what appears to be the identities of people high up in the Israeli government or close to it who appear to have intervened on Trumps behalf to deal with a potential October surprise. Refer to page 5, 12 to 16. This redacted individual even wrangled for a meeting with then candidate Trump. I wonder what Trump had to do in return for such help.

Foreign interference I believe it's called.

Now going by this document alone, the evidence of direct contact between any Russian government officials or agents and Stone, Assange or Corsi, or Trump seems absent, with only conjecture from FBI and US Intelligence that it seems likely to be going on. No surprise the Russia Today would be happy to put Assange on their broadcasts since Hillary had been directly threatening Russia during her time in government and in her election campaigns. This doesn't mean Russia were not doing more to influence the election, but from that document, the evidence suggests interference was coming from somewhere else.

[whitey]

Read a few articles on this from CBS and FoxNews basically the interviewers had a strategy to try to catch Flynn out (which they did) and also didn't want to make a big issue of reminding him about statute 1001 (lying to a federal agent).

Am I missing something? I would have thought these were fairly standard things to do when investigating someone??

I'm open to the rights view of things but so far I'm not really convinced he still lied to Pence and to the Federal investigator didn't he? Oh and plead guilty!

Yes, I'm also having trouble reconciling whitey's enthusiasm and energy to what is being reported.

I work with an ex-NYPD detective and he's full of stories and strategies he used to use to tease evidence and confessions out of suspects. Earnest honesty and transparency is not one of them.

Proof will be in the pudding I guess. Wouldn't be the first time someone walked on a technicality.

Told you the case would be dropped

https://apnews.com/ae1ad252bb13490db2ceffc5d17b6d92?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP

[J70]

Read a few articles on this from CBS and FoxNews basically the interviewers had a strategy to try to catch Flynn out (which they did) and also didn't want to make a big issue of reminding him about statute 1001 (lying to a federal agent).

Am I missing something? I would have thought these were fairly standard things to do when investigating someone??

I'm open to the rights view of things but so far I'm not really convinced he still lied to Pence and to the Federal investigator didn't he? Oh and plead guilty!

Yes, I'm also having trouble reconciling whitey's enthusiasm and energy to what is being reported.

I work with an ex-NYPD detective and he's full of stories and strategies he used to use to tease evidence and confessions out of suspects. Earnest honesty and transparency is not one of them.

Proof will be in the pudding I guess. Wouldn't be the first time someone walked on a technicality.

Told you the case would be dropped

https://apnews.com/ae1ad252bb13490db2ceffc5d17b6d92?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP

Good for him I guess.

And for the rest of us, I guess, as we all now know you're apparently not supposed to lie in an interview with law enforcement.  

And let's hope the conservative new-found demand for fair play from the justice system extends to the poor, minorities and immigrants.

[dec]

The Supreme Court has thrown out the Bridgegate convictions

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/07/supreme-court-bridgegate-decision-242344

"The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday tossed the federal government's case in the infamous "Bridgegate" scandal, clearing the convictions of two allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
In a unanimous ruling that further chips away at the nation's public corruption case law, the justices concluded that the two defendants — Bridget Ann Kelly and Bill Baroni — did not defraud the government of its "property" by closing off two local access lanes to the George Washington Bridge over three days in September 2013.

The traffic-snarling political stunt was designed to punish a Democratic mayor who had refused to endorse Christie, a Republican, for reelection as New Jersey governor.

Justice Elena Kagan said the kinds of decisions Kelly and Baroni made — and their less-than-candid explanations for them — could not be prosecuted as fraud under federal law.

"If U. S. Attorneys could prosecute as property fraud every lie a state or local official tells in making such a decision, the result would be ... 'a sweeping expansion of federal criminal jurisdiction,'" Kagan wrote. "In effect, the Federal Government could use the criminal law to enforce (its view of) integrity in broad swaths of state and local policymaking. The property fraud statutes do not countenance that outcome."
Kagan sought to make clear that the court was not blessing the conduct of the former officials, only declaring that it was beyond the reach of federal corruption laws.

"As Kelly's own lawyer acknowledged, this case involves an 'abuse of power,' she wrote. "The evidence the jury heard no doubt shows wrongdoing—deception, corruption, abuse of power. But the federal fraud statutes at issue do not criminalize all such conduct."

[whitey]

J70-this was an attempted coup....plain and simple

Puts Watergate in the Hapenny place

FBIs credibility destroyed

Strok, Page and company should face serious jail time

[dec]

Corrupt Trump DOJ drops case against corrupt Trump National Security Advisor shocker.

[whitey]

Corrupt Trump DOJ drops case against corrupt Trump National Security Advisor shocker.

I'm a "never Trumper"

The facts of this case should chill every American to the bone

[J70]

J70-this was an attempted coup....plain and simple

Puts Watergate in the Hapenny place

FBIs credibility destroyed

Strok, Page and company should face serious jail time

Attempted coup. Way worse than Watergate. Did Flynn not do his naive, innocent, lying way AFTER the election?

For nothing going on, there's sure been a whole lot of lying, obstruction, changing of stories and covering up going on over the past few years.

And don't worry, I'm sure Barr will see to it that you and Trump get your pound of flesh.

But like I said, if the conservatives now hate the FBI, maybe they'll at least concede that non-federal police forces often behave less than honourably and that the likes of Black Lives Matter didn't spring up for no reason.

[J70]

The Supreme Court has thrown out the Bridgegate convictions

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/07/supreme-court-bridgegate-decision-242344

"The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday tossed the federal government's case in the infamous "Bridgegate" scandal, clearing the convictions of two allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
In a unanimous ruling that further chips away at the nation's public corruption case law, the justices concluded that the two defendants — Bridget Ann Kelly and Bill Baroni — did not defraud the government of its "property" by closing off two local access lanes to the George Washington Bridge over three days in September 2013.

The traffic-snarling political stunt was designed to punish a Democratic mayor who had refused to endorse Christie, a Republican, for reelection as New Jersey governor.

Justice Elena Kagan said the kinds of decisions Kelly and Baroni made — and their less-than-candid explanations for them — could not be prosecuted as fraud under federal law.

"If U. S. Attorneys could prosecute as property fraud every lie a state or local official tells in making such a decision, the result would be ... 'a sweeping expansion of federal criminal jurisdiction,'" Kagan wrote. "In effect, the Federal Government could use the criminal law to enforce (its view of) integrity in broad swaths of state and local policymaking. The property fraud statutes do not countenance that outcome."
Kagan sought to make clear that the court was not blessing the conduct of the former officials, only declaring that it was beyond the reach of federal corruption laws.

"As Kelly's own lawyer acknowledged, this case involves an 'abuse of power,' she wrote. "The evidence the jury heard no doubt shows wrongdoing—deception, corruption, abuse of power. But the federal fraud statutes at issue do not criminalize all such conduct."

I've forgotten.

Were Christie's minions prosecuted under his justice department in NJ?

Or is it in fact now ok and legal to do what they did as petty political payback for their bully of a boss?