West Tyrone By Election - Thurs 3rd May 2018

[AQMP]

Hey, it's election time in the Wee Six again!!  Following the resignation of Barry "Bread on the Head" McElduff, next Thursday sees the election to find his replacement in the constituency of West Tyrone.  The candidates are:

Orfhlaith Begley (SF)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP)
Stephen Donnelly (All)
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)
Chris Smyth (UUP)

Ladbrokes are offering these odds (to win the seat)

SF              1/100
DUP            16/1
Alliance       100/1
SDLP           50/1
UUP             50/1

Last year the figures were:

Barry McElduff (SF)           22,060   50.7%
Thomas Buchanan (DUP)   11,718   26.9%
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)   5,635   13.0%
Alicia Clarke (UUP)            2,253   5.2%
Stephen Donnelly (All)       1,000   2.3%
Ciaran McClean (GP)            427   1.0%
Barry Brown (CISTA)            393   0.9%

Majority   10,342
Turnout   68.2%

Looks like a forgone conclusion for SF to hold the seat which may explain the low key campaign.  Remains to be seen if the McElduff episode has any effect on the SF vote.  At the last election he polled more than 50% of the votes cast.  Turnout will be key, will people bother to come out to vote, will SF get the vote out to back a virtual newcomer to the political scene, will people come out to endorse the SF strategy or will there be an anti-Arlene effect among nationalists.

The candidates had a "debate" on The View last night.  Best performer (IMHO) was Stephen Donnelly (All).  I know Orfhlaith Begley is a young, inexperienced candidate who appeared quite nervous but her performance was pretty poor.  McCrossan remains a divisive "Marmite" candidate in the area.

SF to hold with a much reduced majority with a low turnout.

[GetOverTheBar]

Orfhlaith Begley getting a big push around these parts - lots of exposure and she's certainly putting herself around on social media. She'll likely walk this one much like Barry McElduff - don't actually see the SF vote dropping at all.

SF doing a nice subtle rebrand these days with the ladies around the six.

[trailer]

Orfhlaith Begley is a pure Sinn Fein Robot, a very poor performance last night. Shows how much SF care about the constituents in this seat when they're putting her forward.
McCrossan did rightly and certainly came across the most polished who actually talked sense.
Buchanan couldn't get to grips with the idea that the West Tyrone overwhelmingly voted Remain yet he was for Brexit.
Chris Smyth seems a right sort but he's strangled by the fact he's in the UUP
Stephen Donnelly also talks a lot of sense. Alliance vote will probably drop on the back of this.

Begley to romp home. Turnout down. Which doesn't say much for the electorate in West Tyrone.

[Norf Tyrone]

Orfhlaith Begley is a pure Sinn Fein Robot, a very poor performance last night. Shows how much SF care about the constituents in this seat when they're putting her forward.
McCrossan did rightly and certainly came across the most polished who actually talked sense.
Buchanan couldn't get to grips with the idea that the West Tyrone overwhelmingly voted Remain yet he was for Brexit.
Chris Smyth seems a right sort but he's strangled by the fact he's in the UUP
Stephen Donnelly also talks a lot of sense. Alliance vote will probably drop on the back of this.

Begley to romp home. Turnout down. Which doesn't say much for the electorate in West Tyrone.

Agree with most of this.

Orlaith Begley was described by someone on twitter last night as a Stepford candidate and I definitely seen that last night. Everything appeared scripted. In her defence this was her first big gig and it was wise to stick to the script.

Daniel McCrossan is his own worst enemy. Talks sense at times, I think his heart is in the right place especially for us around Strabane. However his body language etc is awful. Looks sneery and disrespectful at times. I think he would fare much better if he carried himself a lot better. However he may have burnt too many bridges already.

Stevie Donnelly comes across well on social media and again last night. His target will be to tag on another 500 votes to the last election I'd assume. Alliance, I believe, have the best leader in Naomi Long, and Donnelly would benefit from a PR drive over the last week and next week around WT with Long leading the charge. However I am not sure if she has even been on the doors yet.

I didn't think any of the five candidates were overly impressive based on last night's 20 minute showing.

On another matter does Buchanan look and sound like Brian Dooher's da?

[seafoid]

First past the post reinforces polarisation in NI . It also increases the likelihood of crap  SF and DUP MPs who cannot address the problems NI is facing     The Shinner will win regardless of how good she is  . Same for the DUP in Antrim.

[Rois]

On another matter does Buchanan look and sound like Brian Dooher's da?

Don't see it myself.

My sister wanted to get a postal vote in WT - I personally handed the form to the electoral office in Belfast, but it was denied because her signature at the age of 35 is not the same as her signature at the age of 18.  Seriously, is there no better way to determine eligibility?

[Snapchap]

Órfhlaith Begley- Young and inexperienced so hard to be overly harsh after what was clearly not a strong TV performance. My worry was that she seemed to be the SF selection solely on the basis that she is A: Female and B: Young and Mary Lou as good confirmed that in an interview during the week. Hopefully she will grow into the role but last night was certainly not too confidence inspiring. There wasn't a single cliched election-candidate soundbite she didn't trot out. However, TV debates are after all, just shallow B.S. and you don't need to be a natural in a TV studio in order to be hard working elected rep. As a lifelong SF voter and supporter, I'll still be giving her my No. 1 vote.
Back to the 'gender quota' thing. I fear that SF's rush to propel young women to the forefront is being done so at the expense of much more capable and experienced candidates in certain instances. Certainly to my mind, Conor Murphy or John O'Dowd would have been infinitely more confidence inspiring as leader in the six counties than Michelle O'Neill is. No leader should ever have to appear in front of the TV cameras in Stormont's hall and just read a pre-prepared statement from a page. Neither Adams nor McGuinness did so and that exuded confidence. Michelle O'Neill's tendency to do so just looks so amateurish. And in West Tyrone, there are numerous very capable and hard working SF councillors who deserved their chance. Sadly, as I say, my worry is that their age, and in particular their gender, made them non-runners. That being said, I've no doubt about Orfhlaith's intelligence and work ethic and hopefully she will make a success of it. I'm a republican and I'll continue to vote for the SF as a republican party.

Daniel McCrossan - More of the same from him. An unbelievably arrogant attitude, constant negativity, constant interruptions. Seems wholly incapable of putting forward any good reason to actually vote for him or the SDLP, but instead devotes his time to attacking Sinn Féin. All party's will attack other partys in a campaign, but Daniel seems wholly incapable of selling his own candidacy. Snide, nasty, vindictive attacks on others seem to be his default position. Interesting to see his column in the Ulster Herald yesterday. He barely mentioned the SDLP once. It was just his standard, lengthy anti-SF diatribe. Barry McElduff once called him the most negative politican he ever met. Hard to disagree. I had reason to contact him on a constituency matter previously. After repeated attempts at getting a response from him, I had to give up.

Buchanan - Typically uninspiring stuff from Tom. Nothing new to offer what-so-ever. He began by suggesting that the McElduff episode would boost the DUP vote. And odd suggestion. I don't think unionsts will flock to the poll with any serious ambition of giving SF a bloody nose, and I have yet to meet a SF voter who saw Barry record a silly video and decided that the DUP was the way to go from then on.

Chris Smyth - While he was a confident enough talker etc, I cannot like him. All politicians claim to be non-sectarian and fair minded. I've seen his mask slip.

Stephen Donnelly - Confident talker, but I suppose that comes with having 5 election campaigns under your belt at such a young age. Articulate last night, probably more so than the others, but still without being all that inspiring.

[Avondhu star]

Another Stepford Wife candidate as the Shinners move to the right and target the Smoked Salmon Socialist vote

[AQMP]

Órfhlaith Begley- Young and inexperienced so hard to be overly harsh after what was clearly not a strong TV performance. My worry was that she seemed to be the SF selection solely on the basis that she is A: Female and B: Young and Mary Lou as good confirmed that in an interview during the week. Hopefully she will grow into the role but last night was certainly not too confidence inspiring. There wasn't a single cliched election-candidate soundbite she didn't trot out. However, TV debates are after all, just shallow B.S. and you don't need to be a natural in a TV studio in order to be hard working elected rep. As a lifelong SF voter and supporter, I'll still be giving her my No. 1 vote.

This is a FPTP election Snap.  An 'x' is all that's required

[awideisneverasgood]

Órfhlaith Begley and Buchanan were easily the two poorest performers in that debate last night but are odds on to take the first two places.  The west tyrone election is a synopsis of the whole problem with Northern Ireland politics where people blindly vote along orange and green lines despite the quality of the candidate.

[Avondhu star]

Órfhlaith Begley and Buchanan were easily the two poorest performers in that debate last night but are odds on to take the first two places.  The west tyrone election is a synopsis of the whole problem with Northern Ireland politics where people blindly vote along orange and green lines despite the quality of the candidate.

Or lack of "quality" more like it

[Snapchap]

Órfhlaith Begley- Young and inexperienced so hard to be overly harsh after what was clearly not a strong TV performance. My worry was that she seemed to be the SF selection solely on the basis that she is A: Female and B: Young and Mary Lou as good confirmed that in an interview during the week. Hopefully she will grow into the role but last night was certainly not too confidence inspiring. There wasn't a single cliched election-candidate soundbite she didn't trot out. However, TV debates are after all, just shallow B.S. and you don't need to be a natural in a TV studio in order to be hard working elected rep. As a lifelong SF voter and supporter, I'll still be giving her my No. 1 vote.

This is a FPTP election Snap.  An 'x' is all that's required

Figure of speech ye pedantic hoor 

[Denn Forever]

How big a thing in the future will the fact that the leader of SF lives in the south?

[GetOverTheBar]

How big a thing in the future will the fact that the leader of SF lives in the south?

All Ireland Party, no issue really surely? Only serves to reinforce their stance I suppose.

[AQMP]

How big a thing in the future will the fact that the leader of SF lives in the south?

Not really an issue so far.  Sure Gerry A spent a fair bit of time in the South