Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[RadioGAAGAA]

All good points. The NHS one particularly, the southern health service is in rag order and won't be getting better anytime soon.

Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

Nos. 1 to 3 would all be irrational actions. No rational leader goes out deliberately to screw the people who put him there.

No. 4 is possible in theory but in practice GB exiting NI would cost them a fortune.

Leaving aside any questions over the rationality of Boris...

Tariffs are an inevitable consequence of Brexit. That is fundamentally the case.

They (the UK) are also in an incredibly weak negotiating position - and will be desperate to get off WTO schedules.

There will be tariffs and they will be sizeable. To deny this is to deny the rationale for the existence of the common market in the first place.


To negotiate otherwise means they are mirroring EU regulations (including freedom of movement) which is what the ERG etc don't want. 2 & 3 are unavoidable at this point. 1 depends on any deal with the USA and how traditional tory policies on healthcare bear out.

[93-DY-SAM]

SF need to stand back and have a serious look at themselves as well. As long as Mary-Lou and esp. Michelle O'Neill are leading the party I think they will continue to shed votes. I have wanted to see a UI all my life but long runs the fox. Michelle beating on every 2 minutes about a border poll is not helping SF win voters in the middle ground. She needs to wind her neck in and play the game instead of trying to shortcut everything. John Finucane would IMO be an excellent leader for SF in the North.

[five points]

Tariffs are an inevitable consequence of Brexit. That is fundamentally the case.

They (the UK) are also in an incredibly weak negotiating position - and will be desperate to get off WTO schedules.
...
1 depends on any deal with the USA and how traditional tory policies on healthcare bear out.

Places like Switzerland don't suffer crippling tariffs in trade with the EU.

The traditional tory policy on healthcare has been the NHS.

[seafoid]

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

You've left out ones who are reliant on benefits, free housing, pensions and so on.

The NHS will be run down well below the level of the HSE over the next 5 years.

[seafoid]

Personally quite gutted at the results in England and Wales. It's clear this was about Brexit and the people in those areas are steadfastly determined to jump off the cliff. I find it astonishing but I can understand it given the wall to wall coverage it has received.

As usual some unfair and inaccurate comment on Corbyn. I think he has done a tremendous job in making Labour stand for something again. I believe completely in the policies put forward and I know they are the only solution to growing wealth inequality, the jobs timebomb and the climate crisis. Eventually the people will realise this - hopefully before it's too late. I don't think he lost the election on his policy platform - the policies are popular. Brexit meant all bets were off. The Tories, like Trump in 2016, worked out what had to be said to win and the did it relentlessly. A winning strategy perhaps but that's a sad reflection on where we're at I'd say. Corbyn will go but Labour must stay the course with a modern social democratic alternative. Nothing worse than a country with two main parties offering the same.

The silver lining to the cloud is that a United Ireland is closer. I only hope and pray when it comes about we've moved away from the Varadkar/Murphy Tory style politics on this island and our kids get the United Ireland that brave people a century ago envisioned.

Its not about Brexit, its about racism and the uneducated little englander blaming Johnny Foreigner for all his woes.

Corbyn's policies were so popular he lost the election by a massive margin! A hard left Labour is going nowhere fast. Only a centre left Labour will be returned to power anytime soon. They should write this off as a failed experiment.

In 2008 nobody had any political answers to what was going on.
The next crash will be worse. It will involve most people losing their pensions.
I bet Labour would win then.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Places like Switzerland don't suffer crippling tariffs in trade with the EU.

https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/switzerland/index_en.htm

The cornerstone of EU-Swiss relations is the Free Trade Agreement of 1972.

As a consequence of the rejection of the EEA membership in 1992, Switzerland and the EU agreed on a package of seven sectoral agreements signed in 1999 (known in Switzerland as "Bilaterals I"). These include: free movement of persons, technical trade barriers, public procurement, agriculture and air and land transport. In addition, a scientific research agreement fully associated Switzerland into the EU's framework research programmes.

Thats what I'm saying.

For the tories to go for that close an alignment is a significant U-turn. Its fundamentally against what the ERG want.

The traditional tory policy on healthcare has been the NHS.

There was a great BBC chart comparing historical investment in the NHS with the new conservatives.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12BE7/production/_109657767_nhsspending-nc.png

With an ageing population, that level of growth isn't going to work.

[yellowcard]

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

Those will all be important factors in winning a border poll. Now that the Tories have a fairly large majority the block grant will be curtailed or reduced and who knows what will happen with the NHS in the north but I can't see it improving very much anytime soon. The northern economy will continue to disintegrate further since Boris Johnson's deal is not a good one for the business community in hte north either generally speaking. The gap between wealth north and south will continue to grow. Costs of living are undoubtedly much higher in the south but this is more than offset by the amount of FDI and high tech jobs in and around Dublin and the NE corridor. Can the north NOT afford to reduce it's increasing dependency on a welfare based public sector economy. Will Westminster continue to fund it to it's current level to prop it up, it is a flawed economic model as it stands and at some point it must begin to stand on it's own two feet.     

[Kidder81]

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

Those will all be important factors in winning a border poll. Now that the Tories have a fairly large majority the block grant will be curtailed or reduced and who knows what will happen with the NHS in the north but I can't see it improving very much anytime soon. The northern economy will continue to disintegrate further since Boris Johnson's deal is not a good one for the business community in hte north either generally speaking. The gap between wealth north and south will continue to grow. Costs of living are undoubtedly much higher in the south but this is more than offset by the amount of FDI and high tech jobs in and around Dublin and the NE corridor. Can the north NOT afford to reduce it's increasing dependency on a welfare based public sector economy. Will Westminster continue to fund it to it's current level to prop it up, it is a flawed economic model as it stands and at some point it must begin to stand on it's own two feet.   

Austerity didn't hit here as hard as it did in the UK

[Armagh18]

Hanna and Eastwood will be articulate MPs who will explain the nationalist position in London very well.  All necessary to keep progressing towards a New Ireland.  In contrast, what is the point of MPs like Micky Brady and Francie Molloy.  I literally couldn't tell you what they do from one week to the next.

Don't know Francie but Mickey a superb representative couldn't do enough for you.

[Rossfan]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1213/1098998-brexit-ireland/

[Crete Boom]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1213/1098998-brexit-ireland/

DUP won't be happy!!

[thewobbler]

Hanna and Eastwood will be articulate MPs who will explain the nationalist position in London very well.  All necessary to keep progressing towards a New Ireland.  In contrast, what is the point of MPs like Micky Brady and Francie Molloy.  I literally couldn't tell you what they do from one week to the next.

Don't know Francie but Mickey a superb representative couldn't do enough for you.

Representation is for local councillors.

MPs should lead.

[Kidder81]

Corbyn has got his wish, we will be leaving the EU in January

[Solo_run]

I wasn't born before the UK joining the EU so after Brexit result I wanted to learn about what it was like. My only real understanding of it was through how the media portrayed it - but lets face it, they can be trusted. So I took to the internet and read a few things on it. Afterwards, I thought there would be no chance of Britain leaving the UK but now it seems almost certain.

Anyway, if this is the future I am packing my bags.


Taken from Quora:

The UK was way behind other bigger European countries in terms of economical development. Reasons for that were damages of the war and huge political struggles within the UK, because UK had a socialist administration after the war, which was opposed by the industry. Big parts of the British economy were declining, for example the car industry which was one of the largest in Europe.

On the other hand UK was relying on its dominant role in the commonwealth, importing cheap agricultural products from Australia and New Zealand and exporting industrial goods to these countries. However, many crown colonies became independent after WW II.

Soon after the foundation of the EC in 1957 UK realized that hey would be better off as a EC member, so they tried hard to join the EC. In fact it was French president Charles de Gaulle who used his political weight to block these attempts. He did not want to have UK play an important role in the EC - and the German administrations in the 60's did not want to disturb the relationship with France (The whole EC idea is based on the Montan-Union, a plan to put together German and French coal and steel industry in order to overcome the German-French hatred of the past centuries. Initially the EC was a French idea, and de Gaulle wanted it to stay that way.

Situation changed at the end of the 60's, when de Gaulle left office in France and Germany got a new social-democrat chancellor Willy Brandt.

tldnr: UK had serious economical troubles in the 60's and 70's and would have joined the EC earlier, but France refused to accept them.

[five points]

I wasn't born before the UK joining the EU so after Brexit result I wanted to learn about what it was like. My only real understanding of it was through how the media portrayed it - but lets face it, they can be trusted. So I took to the internet and read a few things on it. Afterwards, I thought there would be no chance of Britain leaving the UK but now it seems almost certain.

Anyway, if this is the future I am packing my bags.


Taken from Quora:

The UK was way behind other bigger European countries in terms of economical development. Reasons for that were damages of the war and huge political struggles within the UK, because UK had a socialist administration after the war, which was opposed by the industry. Big parts of the British economy were declining, for example the car industry which was one of the largest in Europe.

On the other hand UK was relying on its dominant role in the commonwealth, importing cheap agricultural products from Australia and New Zealand and exporting industrial goods to these countries. However, many crown colonies became independent after WW II.

Soon after the foundation of the EC in 1957 UK realized that hey would be better off as a EC member, so they tried hard to join the EC. In fact it was French president Charles de Gaulle who used his political weight to block these attempts. He did not want to have UK play an important role in the EC - and the German administrations in the 60's did not want to disturb the relationship with France (The whole EC idea is based on the Montan-Union, a plan to put together German and French coal and steel industry in order to overcome the German-French hatred of the past centuries. Initially the EC was a French idea, and de Gaulle wanted it to stay that way.

Situation changed at the end of the 60's, when de Gaulle left office in France and Germany got a new social-democrat chancellor Willy Brandt.

tldnr: UK had serious economical troubles in the 60's and 70's and would have joined the EC earlier, but France refused to accept them.

I wouldn't be packing my bags on foot of a Quora article. Britain, in common with the major continental economies, did very well in the 1950 and 1960s.  When Prime Minister Harold Macmillan told them "You've never had it so good' in 1957, he wasn't far wrong. That was the era when huge numbers of destitute Irish did well for themselves in England.

The British car industry remained in good shape til the 70s and ironically EEC membership from 1973 was one of the factors that hastened its decline. The wheels only came off the economy in the 1970s when high costs, shoddy production and poor industrial relations did for its industrial base.

It's modern economy, based largely on services, is unrecognisable from then.