China Coronavirus

[Cavan19]

Must be some lads on here qualified as virologists or working for CDC given the certainty with which they pronounce the outcome of the spread of a new virus.

True the W.H.O hasn't got to grips with it yet.

[weareros]

From an American perspective but worth a listen to on how easily this spreads (surfaces the danger) and that a vaccine will take a year at best.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

[highorlow]

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.

The last 3 to die in Italy were 83, 84 and 91. No death is easy but the way the m€dia are carrying on in relation to this is ridiculous. If these 3 people got another strain of flu would they have died also?

[RadioGAAGAA]

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.

Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

[weareros]

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.

The last 3 to die in Italy were 83, 84 and 91. No death is easy but the way the m€dia are carrying on in relation to this is ridiculous. If these 3 people got another strain of flu would they have died also?

Based on the Chinese stats (which would not be the most scientific), the death rate was around 2-2.5% whereas it is 0.1% for flu. So death rate from this could be 25 times higher. I'm taking this from the expert in the podcast I linked above, who think this could be like the Spanish Flu of 1918. If you have a circle of 300 people you know well, and this becomes a pandemic, 6 people you know will die from this. It mostly attacks age 30 and above and children seem to be immune. Mostly killed older Chinese men who were likely to be heavy smokers and therefore had weaker lungs. It could attack worse next Winter as viruses don't like warmer weather (not that that helps us in Ireland). Best case scenario is that this is media hype; worse case it will kill a lot of people before a vaccine is developed. Vaccine's usually take a year.

[highorlow]

The death rate appears to be geographical so basing a global one on the China stats is wrong.

[clarshack]

all schools in japan to close from monday.

[GetOverTheBar]

all schools in japan to close from monday.

Overpopulated country. Makes sense from a prevention of spreading as opposed to any harm, they themselves might face.

[armaghniac]

The last 3 to die in Italy were 83, 84 and 91. No death is easy but the way the m€dia are carrying on in relation to this is ridiculous. If these 3 people got another strain of flu would they have died also?

Yes, they might have died of the flu, if they had got it. However, they and those caring from them would have been vaccinated against the common types of flu, so they might never have got flu.
The media is being the media, but we should not minimise this. If 5 times are many people get this dose than of flu because of no vaccine and no immunity and if it twice as likely to cause complications then the demand on hospitals increases 10 times (and these are conservative calculations). At some point, hospitals cannot cope so the death rate then begins to shoot up as people who would otherwise survive are not getting proper treatment.

all schools in japan to close from monday.

Overpopulated country. Makes sense from a prevention of spreading as opposed to any harm, they themselves might face.

It seems that children and young people don't face a particular problem with this, which is not always the case with flu. But some of these children live with their grandparents and they could kill them by carrying the pox into the household.

[GetOverTheBar]

The last 3 to die in Italy were 83, 84 and 91. No death is easy but the way the m€dia are carrying on in relation to this is ridiculous. If these 3 people got another strain of flu would they have died also?

Yes, they might have died of the flu, if they had got it. However, they and those caring from them would have been vaccinated against the common types of flu, so they might never have got flu.
The media is being the media, but we should not minimise this. If 5 times are many people get this dose than of flu because of no vaccine and no immunity and if it twice as likely to cause complications then the demand on hospitals increases 10 times (and these are conservative calculations). At some point, hospitals cannot cope so the death rate then begins to shoot up as people who would otherwise survive are not getting proper treatment.

all schools in japan to close from monday.

Overpopulated country. Makes sense from a prevention of spreading as opposed to any harm, they themselves might face.

It seems that children and young people don't face a particular problem with this, which is not always the case with flu. But some of these children live with their grandparents and they could kill them by carrying the pox into the household.

Agreed, might seem quite a harsh move on the face of it but schools are breeding grounds as we know. Quite smart from the Japanese, they are taking positive steps anyway.

[Hound]

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.

Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

I've a cousin working in one of the UK hospitals that has some of the 13 UK patients.

He reckons the total cases number and also the total recovered number are misleading. The vast majority of people who get this only have a mild illness, so most of them don't get picked up. He reckons the Italy number is closer to 5,000 cases and then obviously the vast majority of them either recovering or recovered.

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.

[johnnycool]

60 confirmed cases in the US and none in Mexico...

Maybe the Mexicans should be closing the border!

[RadioGAAGAA]

60 confirmed cases in the US and none in Mexico...

Maybe the Mexicans should be closing the border!

They need a wall.

[armaghniac]

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.

I suppose this view would have to explain why health services in Wuhan were overcome and what was different so that this would not happen elsewhere.
I don't think the situation is hopeless. Singapore hasn't had an epidemic, but they didn't ignore it either and remain at orange alert.

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.

Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

But the number of cases is relevant in determining the fatality rate.  That's by definition the number of deaths divided by the number of cases.   As you say, we don't know how those other cases are going to go, but all that can be done is to add them to the numbers as they either recover or die, and update the fatality rate.