China Coronavirus

[sid waddell]

Sid, you have absolutely no idea how things would have panned out had Covid been allowed to "let rip".

You unilaterally believe things would have been worse.

Yet Sweden's approach suggests it might have been the same - devastation in care homes, but much less deadly than expected in every other facet of society. And there's a word of headscratching going on about why Africa isn't just still standing, but was remarkably unaffected.

So forgive me for pointing out, yet again, that you can't claim to know the answers here. All you have are suspicions that you want to be true to prove how smart you are. But you are coming across as a blinkered fool.

Right, thanks for that

[thewobbler]

Good lad.

Take a wee walk.

Come back tomorrow and start again.


You are nowhere, nowhere near as clever as you think you are.

[sid waddell]

Good lad.

Take a wee walk.

Come back tomorrow and start again.


You are nowhere, nowhere near as clever as you think you are.

"Good lad"

"Take a wee walk"

This is top notch stuff you're offering here and it's really shown me

[Cunny Funt]

Level 3 restrictions applied to Dublin from midnight tonight for the next three weeks. How and why that wasn't done on Tuesday makes no sense.

[thewobbler]

I'm not offering or showing you anything.

All I'm doing, once again, is making it clear that regardless of how much sneering vitriol you put behind your posts, you do not have a f**king clue what's on going on with Covid.

Neither do I.

——

Do yourself a favour. Let it go for today.  This chain of thought you're in where Sweden is not suitable for comparison, just can't work. It's a country in Europe. You don't get to decide the rules.

[armaghniac]

Yet Sweden's approach suggests it might have been the same - devastation in care homes, but much less deadly than expected in every other facet of society. And there's a word of headscratching going on about why Africa isn't just still standing, but was remarkably unaffected.

While Africa has a young population there has to something genetic here as well, or perhaps previous exposure to some disease that provides some protection. South America has been ravaged by this virus.
It is clear that Bangaldeshis are genetically more likely to get this, for some reason, which partly explains some of the issue in northern England.

[sid waddell]

I'm not offering or showing you anything.

All I'm doing, once again, is making it clear that regardless of how much sneering vitriol you put behind your posts, you do not have a f**king clue what's on going on with Covid.

Neither do I.

——

Do yourself a favour. Let it go for today.  This chain of thought you're in where Sweden is not suitable for comparison, just can't work. It's a country in Europe. You don't get to decide the rules.

You've literally just made that up

It's quite delicious seeing the most sneering, vitriolic poster on the forum complain about "sneering vitriol"

Very Graham Linehan-esque

Also tremendous craic to see somebody who claims they nothing (while simultaneously adopting a know it all tone, oh the irony) about Covid tell somebody else that they know nothing

I mean if you know nothing about something, how on earth would you be in a position to tell anybody else that they know nothing based on what they've written

Professional contrarianism is a terrible thing, you'll be shouting "RTE IS the virus" next

[larryin89]

When were the restaurants in Dublin reopened , how long are the schools opened & then put that together with when the cases have risen significantly, how can they think it's restaurants the problem lies ?

[armaghniac]

When were the restaurants in Dublin reopened , how long are the schools opened & then put that together with when the cases have risen significantly, how can they think it's restaurants the problem lies ?

that is simplistic, cases have been rising since June, it is just that weekly increase gets more and more each week and a halt has to be called now.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-is-out-there-seeding-widely-and-things-will-get-worse-1.4357549

Case numbers started rising rapidly five weeks ago.

That increase is now a national trend, not just confined to Dublin.

Dublin, though, has an incidence three to five times higher than the rest of the country.

More older people are becoming infected; for example, the incidence among 65-74 year-olds, which fell to zero at one point over the summer, is now 23.6 cases per 100,000 population.

Case numbers are doubling every 10-14 days at current rates.

[Cunny Funt]

When were the restaurants in Dublin reopened , how long are the schools opened & then put that together with when the cases have risen significantly, how can they think it’s restaurants the problem lies ?

that is simplistic, cases have been rising since June, it is just that weekly increase gets more and more each week and a halt has to be called now.

June cases decreased from 112 cases one week to under 70 for the last week of June. Seven day average is now 247 cases a day.

End of July early August is when the cases started to rise here again, the clusters in meat factories mostly started the rise.

[sid waddell]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-is-out-there-seeding-widely-and-things-will-get-worse-1.4357549

Case numbers started rising rapidly five weeks ago.

That increase is now a national trend, not just confined to Dublin.

Dublin, though, has an incidence three to five times higher than the rest of the country.

More older people are becoming infected; for example, the incidence among 65-74 year-olds, which fell to zero at one point over the summer, is now 23.6 cases per 100,000 population.

Case numbers are doubling every 10-14 days at current rates.

From a letter to The Irish Times on Wednesday:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/covid-19-is-far-more-dangerous-than-flu-1.4354743

Sir, – The HSE has rejected the claims of Dr Martin Feeley (clinical director of the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group) that Covid-19 is less serious than the annual flu and that people at low risk of the virus should be allowed to be exposed to it, which would enable the country to develop herd immunity ("HSE rejects senior doctor's comments Covid-19 is 'less severe' than annual flu", News, September 12th).

We fully support the HSE's rejection of Dr Feeley's opinions.

When it comes to Covid-19, we must where possible be led by data. On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 per cent of people who become infected. Current data indicates that Covid-19 is substantially more dangerous than flu. Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US, has given a death rate 10 times that of seasonal flu.

Regarding herd immunity, no country has explicitly advocated this approach because of the dangers it will entail. Recent seroprevalence studies indicate that 1.7 per cent of the Irish population has been infected with Sars-CoV-2 and there have been 1,784 deaths and many survivors with severe long-term effects of Covid-19. It has been estimated that at least 70 per cent of the population need to be infected (or immunised with a highly effective vaccine) to reach the critical threshold for herd immunity. Therefore, herd immunity through infection will come at price of substantially more morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 in the Irish population.

It would also be virtually impossible to protect vulnerable people, since a large proportion, as many as one in three, of the Irish population are in a high-risk group. Apart from older people, this includes those with heart disease, diabetes and obesity. Widespread infection would also likely give rise to people with debilitating persistent symptoms.

Since he is advocating for herd immunity, can Dr Feeley give an upper limit of the likely number of deaths that would be acceptable if a herd immunity approach were to be taken?

We are in a most important phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is essential that commentators base their statements on current science as best they can. Otherwise they are in danger of misleading the general public or providing support for those who support disinformation for political ends. – Yours, etc,

LUKE O'NEILL, PhD

MRIA FRS;

DAVID McCONNELL,

PhD, MRIA;

KINGSTON MILLS,

PhD, MRIA;

TOMÁS RYAN, PhD

Trinity College Dublin,

Dublin 2.

Let's do some maths

There are 4.8 million people in the saorstát

1.7% of that is 81,600 - that's how many the experts above think have got Covid to date

We've had 1,784 deaths as of the other day

1,784 as a percentage of 81,600 is 2.18% of a death rate for those infected

70% of 4.8 million = 3.36 million - that's the figure you'd need to be infected for herd immunity, in theory

2.18% of 3.36 million = 73,248

So under the herd immunity the internet experts want you could be looking at a death toll of 73k

Even under more generous assumptions, ie, a death rate of 1%, or even 0.5%, you're looking at a pretty monstrous toll under this crazy plan

None of this takes a big brain, it's basic maths

And we don't even know whether herd immunity exists - it seems that most experts assume immunity of maybe 2 to 3 years - but we don't yet know for sure - and there have now been documented cases of re-infection, even if extremely rare so far

If 1.7% of the population has so far been infected, you'll be waiting a long, long time to reach 70% - we're now over six months into this thing

Let's be generous and assume for the purposes of argument 10% of the population has been infected - you'll still be waiting a long time to reach 70% - unless you let the virus rip - and then you overwhelm the health system and the death rate goes way up

Herd immunity as an idea is hare brained, but the internet experts and libertarian zealots seem to like it

Libertarianism as an idea is also hare brained and beloved of internet experts, so these ideas go nicely together, they tend to come as a pair

[armaghniac]

THis guy really gets the "we are all in it together" team spirit.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/574875/limerick-man-awaiting-swab-results-played-soccer-tested-positive-for-covid-19.html

[Cunny Funt]

End the week with high daily case number of 396 and 241 of those cases in Dublin.

The weekly numbers for the ROI

Cases 1,982 (668 more than last week)

Deaths reported  10 (two more than last week)

Tests carried out in the last 7 days - 83,390

82 in hospital and 17 in ICU.

Hopefully things improve for the week ahead.

[imtommygunn]

What is Boris plotting now

I hope this clown doesn't go full lockdown again.